Drafting For Defense - 1st and 2nd Round

[mgteich]

Obviously Belichick specializes in having more picks. The perception by many here is that recently, he does poorly with the picks. Belichick has had EIGHT defensive picks in the first two rounds in the 2008, 2009 and 2010 drafts. He has hit on 50% of those picks. It is possible there may still be some production from Brace and Cunningham as there was in their rookie year.

HITS
Mayo, Chung, McCourty, Spikes

MINOR PRODUCERS IN THEIR ROOKIE YEARS
Brace, Cunningham

FAILS
Wheatley, Butler

BOTTOM LINE
Belichick has done OK in acquiring talent through top draft picks. Lower level picks have produced only Pryor and Deaderick for the defense over these 3 drafts (plus Edelman and Slater). Some might think that late round picks were Belichick's specialty. It seems not to be the case for 2008-2010.

BTW, this same pattern is true on the offense. Belichick has been 100% in the first 2 rounds (Vollmer and Gronkowski). He has only Hernandez and Edelman to show for all the rest.

I believe the difference is that in the past Belichick did more with veteran free agents, late round draft picks and trades. Now, it seems to need to rely on UDFA's instead.

 

[mcsully]

Obviously Belichick specializes in having more picks. The perception by many here is that recently, he does poorly with the picks. Belichick has had EIGHT defensive picks in the first two rounds in the 2008, 2009 and 2010 drafts. He has hit on 50% of those picks. It is possible there may still be some production from Brace and Cunningham as there was in their rookie year.

HITS
Mayo, Chung, McCourty, Spikes

MINOR PRODUCERS IN THEIR ROOKIE YEARS
Brace, Cunningham

FAILS
Wheatley, Butler

BOTTOM LINE
Belichick has done OK in acquiring talent through top draft picks. Lower level picks have produced only Pryor and Deaderick for the defense over these 3 drafts (plus Edelman and Slater). Some might think that late round picks were Belichick's specialty. It seems not to be the case for 2008-2010.

BTW, this same pattern is true on the offense. Belichick has been 100% in the first 2 rounds (Vollmer and Gronkowski). He has only Hernandez and Edelman to show for all the rest.

I believe the difference is that in the past Belichick did more with veteran free agents, late round draft picks and trades. Now, it seems to need to rely on UDFA's instead.

The team is in major need in depth and hopefully this draft will help restock the roster between 40-53.. But BB the GM has done poorly for the past few years.. We have no depth and the lack of drafted players who actually stick is hurting us.

BB the coach is great!

My only issue is... Well all the players you mentioned as hits aren't. McCourty is horrible.. When Stallworth has a career day against you and considering he's part of the starting 11 that gives up an average of 400 yards. I'm going to disagree.. He's not a bust but as good as he was last year, he's as bad this year. Spikes and Chung are hits?? Not sure I see "eye to eye" on that.. Chung looks the part but can't stay healthy, and I think spikes has a lot of growing to do (on the field and off the field).. Spikes misses a lot of plays in my opinion. When I'm at the game, i see him reading the play wrong and taking himself out of the position.. The only untouchable player on defense is wilfork. If they lost anyone else, it wouldn't matter.. Even Mayo. He's good but not great.. Not a player a defense can be built around..

 

[mcsully]

Let me add to my post (rant)

The problem with the defense is 3 fold

1. The position coaching. during 01-06, we could take players no one wanted and turn them into solid contributors.. Seems like we can't do that..

2. We have no core on defense.. To much flux.. YOung players don't have that voice in the lockroom they can lead on.. Yes we have Mayo, wilfork and a player or two more.. But in the championship days we had 11 leaders on defense..

3. DC - he blows.. Bedard mentioned this a few weeks ago but BB is move involved.. We should have made a move on Crennel or kept Ryan or even Capers.. Our offense has evolved over the 11 years.. Why hasn't our defense (maybe bend don't break is gone by the waste side)


There isn't just one thing that will fix this.. Its the entire environment.. It typically this doesn't change in corps so I don't see it happening here.. One of the reasons why I didn't go for playoff tkts..

 

[supafly]

... Well all the players you mentioned as hits aren't. McCourty is horrible.. When Stallworth has a career day against you and considering he's part of the starting 11 that gives up an average of 400 yards. I'm going to disagree.. He's not a bust but as good as he was last year, he's as bad this year. Spikes and Chung are hits?? Not sure I see "eye to eye" on that.. Chung looks the part but can't stay healthy, and I think spikes has a lot of growing to do (on the field and off the field).. Spikes misses a lot of plays in my opinion. When I'm at the game, i see him reading the play wrong and taking himself out of the position.. The only untouchable player on defense is wilfork. If they lost anyone else, it wouldn't matter.. Even Mayo. He's good but not great.. Not a player a defense can be built around..

Although we probably wouldn't agree on exactly who is a "hit," and who isn't, I absolutely agree with you that all of these named players are not the written in stone studs that some think they are.

As a matter of fact, the jury is likely still out on almost all of them. In the sake of fairness, they have all contributed to the team at some point, and they all look like they have potential to continue in the right direction; but to consider them all "hits" is not something that I think is 100% right.

 

[jbb9s]

The thing that the OP doesn't really address is the lack of drafting defensive players when the team desperately needs them. Sure, its nice to tie up a pair of RBs, but secretely BB did so knowing that he didn't like Sanders, Meriweather or Page. I don't think he came into camp and just decided to cut all 3 out of the blue.

It's reminiscent of the big draft where he went Maroney, Jackson, Thomas, Mills..........and Dean Peas must have been going.....give me a freakin break! I need some help on D. Of course, unless I have the years mixed up, the Patriots were shredded by Indy in the AFFCG with total pathetic lack of depth after a few guys in the starting 11 got the flu.

So sure 50 - 50 is fine but instead of going 4 for 8, it would have been nice to go 5 - 10 or 6 - 11. Can you imagine a few young bucks back there right now to replace Slater or whoever starts at safety each week?

 

[jbb9s]

3. DC - he blows.. Bedard mentioned this a few weeks ago but BB is move involved.. We should have made a move on Crennel or kept Ryan or even Capers.. Our offense has evolved over the 11 years.. Why hasn't our defense (maybe bend don't break is gone by the waste side)

I don't see what calls Patricia could possibly make that would result in better play from the D. He can only run the guys out there that BB has on the roster. I doubt [insert your favorite D coord here] could do much when your pro bowl corner is getting torched one or two times a game and Jones is taking 60 snaps a game off the street.

 

[Sciz]

The thing that the OP doesn't really address is the lack of drafting defensive players when the team desperately needs them. Sure, its nice to tie up a pair of RBs, but secretely BB did so knowing that he didn't like Sanders, Meriweather or Page. I don't think he came into camp and just decided to cut all 3 out of the blue.

It's reminiscent of the big draft where he went Maroney, Jackson, Thomas, Mills..........and Dean Peas must have been going.....give me a freakin break! I need some help on D. Of course, unless I have the years mixed up, the Patriots were shredded by Indy in the AFFCG with total pathetic lack of depth after a few guys in the starting 11 got the flu.

So sure 50 - 50 is fine but instead of going 4 for 8, it would have been nice to go 5 - 10 or 6 - 11. Can you imagine a few young bucks back there right now to replace Slater or whoever starts at safety each week?

If Belichick had decided he didn't like Meriweather or Sanders, he would've cut them before camp rather then risk injury and paying their salary should they get hurt. More likely, they got into camp and he realized they were no good. Hard to do much then, even though he sure tried, according to reports.

And considering that the average team makes 6 picks in the top 2 rounds over 3 years, asking for 11 on defense alone is kind of ridiculous.

 

[mgteich]

In the drafts I am discussing 2006-2008, we used 10 picks in the first two rounds. Belichick picked 8 defensive players and 2 offensive players. That's 80% defense. The exceptions were Vollmer and Gronkowski. I think that the two of these were fine picks at positions of great need.

The thing that the OP doesn't really address is the lack of drafting defensive players when the team desperately needs them. Sure, its nice to tie up a pair of RBs, but secretely BB did so knowing that he didn't like Sanders, Meriweather or Page. I don't think he came into camp and just decided to cut all 3 out of the blue.

It's reminiscent of the big draft where he went Maroney, Jackson, Thomas, Mills..........and Dean Peas must have been going.....give me a freakin break! I need some help on D. Of course, unless I have the years mixed up, the Patriots were shredded by Indy in the AFFCG with total pathetic lack of depth after a few guys in the starting 11 got the flu.

So sure 50 - 50 is fine but instead of going 4 for 8, it would have been nice to go 5 - 10 or 6 - 11. Can you imagine a few young bucks back there right now to replace Slater or whoever starts at safety each week?

 

[supafly]

Let me add to my post (rant)

The problem with the defense is 3 fold

1. The position coaching. during 01-06, we could take players no one wanted and turn them into solid contributors.. Seems like we can't do that..

2. We have no core on defense.. To much flux.. YOung players don't have that voice in the lockroom they can lead on.. Yes we have Mayo, wilfork and a player or two more.. But in the championship days we had 11 leaders on defense..

3. DC - he blows.. Bedard mentioned this a few weeks ago but BB is move involved.. We should have made a move on Crennel or kept Ryan or even Capers.. Our offense has evolved over the 11 years.. Why hasn't our defense (maybe bend don't break is gone by the waste side)


There isn't just one thing that will fix this.. Its the entire environment.. It typically this doesn't change in corps so I don't see it happening here.. One of the reasons why I didn't go for playoff tkts..

I don't know, I think this defense has potential for sure.

Imagine a really high quality player who will constantly get after the QB, or shut half the field down...then combine them with a young contributor from the draft, maybe even two. (I know, 2 is pushing it)

Finally, add in a middle of the road vet (Belichick's specialty), and you'd have an entirely different defense.

The single-handed main problem is the ridiculously pathetic secondary, and although I can at least respect the fact that BB wanted to change it up (because they weren't very good last year either), he has ultimately failed for the 2011 season in that area.

If ALL of those things hadn't gone wrong ALL in the same season, we'd be in much better shape:

--McCourty suddenly looks worse than Duane Starks on a bad day

--Bodden's release/injury

--Dowling's placement on IR (actually most of us could see that one coming)

--The entire replacement/overhaul of our most solidified position of safety heading into TC (outside of quarterback, of course)

Then add in these factors:

--Chung has missed about 40% of the season

--Second year player Brown is nothing more than a ST player

--Spikes has missed about 40% of the season

--Mayo missed time

--McCourty missed time

--Fletcher missed about 50-60% of the season, maybe more

--Role players/depth players such as Guyton have missed time

--Wright to IR early

--Pryor to IR early

--Brace PUP'ed to start the yr

--Deaderick PUP'ed to start the yr

 

[jbb9s]

If Belichick had decided he didn't like Meriweather or Sanders, he would've cut them before camp rather then risk injury and paying their salary should they get hurt. More likely, they got into camp and he realized they were no good. Hard to do much then, even though he sure tried, according to reports.

And considering that the average team makes 6 picks in the top 2 rounds over 3 years, asking for 11 on defense alone is kind of ridiculous.

Sciz - you're a credible poster but what sounds ridiculous to me is an NFL team playing Matthew Slater and Julian Edelmen on defensive.

Do you really think those cuts had anything to do with salary? Like Sanders was overpaid...OK, but they cut him and didn't sign anyone expensive to replace him. Kraft is running a billion dollar enterprise, I'm sure cutting a player who makes 5MM to save that cash is tail wagging the dog.

 

[jbb9s]

And Sciz, another thing that sounds ridiculous to me is having 5 good RBs on your team when only 1 can play on any down. yet you need 2 safeties in on every defensive snap and they have 1, who has been hurt for 5 games.

 

[Sciz]

Sciz - you're a credible poster but what sounds ridiculous to me is an NFL team playing Matthew Slater and Julian Edelmen on defensive.

Do you really think those cuts had anything to do with salary? Like Sanders was overpaid...OK, but they cut him and didn't sign anyone expensive to replace him. Kraft is running a billion dollar enterprise, I'm sure cutting a player who makes 5MM to save that cash is tail wagging the dog.

I'm saying he didn't decide he didn't like them back when he was picking RBs in the draft, and keeping them through camp was a sign of that. If he knew he didn't like them, they would've been cut for salary reasons. But he gave them their chance to show what they could do, and they failed, around 2 months too late for Belichick to draft their replacements knowing they sucked.

 

[jbb9s]

I'm saying he didn't decide he didn't like them back when he was picking RBs in the draft, and keeping them through camp was a sign of that. If he knew he didn't like them, they would've been cut for salary reasons. But he gave them their chance to show what they could do, and they failed, around 2 months too late for Belichick to draft their replacements knowing they sucked.

that is probably true - except.....

James Sanders does not suck. He has had 3 really great seasons on this team. He knew the defense. He didn't get hurt. He started ahead of a pro bowler. He made the Manning pick.

Even if you give him the Cunningham, Ellis treatment - and just flat out bench him for games at a time - at least he's around in a pinch.

 

[mgteich]

I strongly disagreed with the cutting of Sanders. That being said, are you suggesting that Sanders would not have been injured while the other were injured? Slater and Edelman are playing because there were five injuries in the secondary (Bodden, Dowling, Barrett, McCourty, Chung) and a failure (Brown). Slater and Edelman are better than what Belichick has been able to find off the streets.

The depth players that Belichick chose in camp have been OK (Molden and Ihedigbo).

The problems were
1) Belichick's choice of Barrett and Brown over Sanders and Meriweather
2) Belichick's counting on Bodden and Dowling who ended up injured
3) Injuries to McCourty and Chung

Sciz - you're a credible poster but what sounds ridiculous to me is an NFL team playing Matthew Slater and Julian Edelmen on defensive.

 

[ATippett56]

If the New England Patriots defense is to be retooled, one first must identify players on the roster to build around (basis 3-4 defensive alignment):

Defensive Line
Wilfork, Love, Deaderick, Brace, Pryor, Wright

Linebackers
Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher, Ninkovich, Cunningham, Carter

Safeties
Chung

Cornerbacks
McCourty, Arrington, Dowling

Based upon strictly scheme fit, Courtney Upshaw from Alabama would be the best rookie 3-4 outside linebacker available. The New England Patriots should go so far as to expend a first and second round draft pick to trade up in the first round to acquire the Alabama outside linebacker if the New England Patriots organization believes he could be the next LaMarr Woodley of the NFL.

NFL Draft - 2012 Draft Prospects - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

With the second first round draft pick, the New England Patriots should select a 3-4 defensive end (5 technique) to replace Ty Warren at left defensive end. Fletcher Cox from Mississippi State could be a good candidate for example.

NFL Draft - 2012_DT Draft Prospects - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

With the second round draft pick from the Oakland Raiders, the New England Patriots should grab the best available free safety on the board. T.J. McDonald from USC or Robert Lester from Alabama should be prme candidates for example.

NFL Draft - 2012_FS Draft Prospects - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

With the third round draft pick, the New England Patriots should grab the best available cornerback on the board since the New England Patriots defense currently don't have a competent slot cornerback active on the roster.

NFL Draft - 2012_CB Draft Prospects - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

With the fourth round draft pick, the New England Patriots should select either an offensive center, since Dan Koppen will be unrestricted free agent, or safety since the quality depth at the safety position is nearly non-existent.

Thus, the 2012 New England Patriots 3-4 defense would potentially aline as follows:

DL

First Round Draft Pick, Vince Wilfork, Brandon Deaderick

LB

First Round Draft Pick, Brandon Spikes, Jerod Mayo, Rob Ninkovich/Jermaine Cunningham/Markell Carter

S

Patrick Chung, Second Round Draft Pick (from the Oakland Raiders)

CB

Devin McCourty, Ras-I Dowling/Kyle Arrington/3rd Round Draft Pick

Depth issues on defense, especially the defensive secondary, could be resolved through unrestricted free agency.

 

[Deus Irae]

Obviously Belichick specializes in having more picks. The perception by many here is that recently, he does poorly with the picks. Belichick has had EIGHT defensive picks in the first two rounds in the 2008, 2009 and 2010 drafts. He has hit on 50% of those picks. It is possible there may still be some production from Brace and Cunningham as there was in their rookie year.

HITS
Mayo, Chung, McCourty, Spikes

MINOR PRODUCERS IN THEIR ROOKIE YEARS
Brace, Cunningham

FAILS
Wheatley, Butler

BOTTOM LINE
Belichick has done OK in acquiring talent through top draft picks. Lower level picks have produced only Pryor and Deaderick for the defense over these 3 drafts (plus Edelman and Slater). Some might think that late round picks were Belichick's specialty. It seems not to be the case for 2008-2010.

BTW, this same pattern is true on the offense. Belichick has been 100% in the first 2 rounds (Vollmer and Gronkowski). He has only Hernandez and Edelman to show for all the rest.

I believe the difference is that in the past Belichick did more with veteran free agents, late round draft picks and trades. Now, it seems to need to rely on UDFA's instead.

Why did you use 2008 as your cutoff instead of 2007, since the first rounders of 2007 would just be in their last season this year?

Also, how are you defining "hits"? Spikes is a situational player as opposed to a sure starter, yet you've got him listed as a "hit", for example.

Lastly, why didn't you include the 3rd round picks, and make it all of what used to be the "first day" picks?

 

[strngplyr]

I hope we stray away from the "best player available or trade down" approach this offseason and pick up someone who can make an impact immediately. I'm all for moving up in the first round for a change if there is an opportunity and someone the team really likes.

Although, in hindsight, Solder turned out to be a very good pick for what seemed to be a 'best available' situation (I honestly believe the team knew Light was coming back when drafting Solder). Also, funny how many people insisted he would never sniff RT or anything other than LT.

 

[mgteich]

You ask the right question. We do need to decide what scheme we're running, and then have a draft that is primarily defense. After all, the offense should be fine. I agree that
a center is likely to be drafted some time in the draft.

Your solution is to start three rookies: at DL, LB, and at S. In addition, you expect to get a 3rd rounder to contribute at corner.

In short you expect to not only have four 'hits" in the draft. You expect the top 3 to start as rookies.
========

Obviously, the patriots would trade a 1st and 2nd for someone they thought could be the next LaMarr Woodley. They would have done the same in the 2011 draft.
===============

I have a somewhat different approach. I agree that we need to a needs assessment. The steps are then to see what we get from our own re-signs and then the first part of free agency. THEN, we will know what we need in the draft. After all, Belichick is likely to secure some defensive players as re-signs or in free agency. For example, we could bring back Carter and Anderson, or not.

I am not arguing with your draft conclusions. I would be fine with drafting a DE, OLB, S and C. But then, I would have been fine signing players at these positions for the past four years.

BTW, we will see which players are evaluated as top 3-4 DE's. As I recall, in 2010, there were almost none to be had. Many of us wanted Deaderick as early as the 3rd round. If we bring back Carter or another starting 4-3 pass rusher, we might be looking at 4-3 DE's and LB's. That would have changed our draft perspective considerably over the past few years. 4-3 players are much easier to find.

If the New England Patriots defense is to be retooled, one first must identify players on the roster to build around (basis 3-4 defensive alignment):

Defensive Line
Wilfork, Love, Deaderick, Brace, Pryor, Wright

Linebackers
Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher, Ninkovich, Cunningham, Carter

Safeties
Chung

Cornerbacks
McCourty, Arrington, Dowling

Based upon strictly scheme fit, Courtney Upshaw from Alabama would be the best rookie 3-4 outside linebacker available. The New England Patriots should go so far as to expend a first and second round draft pick to trade up in the first round to acquire the Alabama outside linebacker if the New England Patriots organization believes he could be the next LaMarr Woodley of the NFL.

NFL Draft - 2012 Draft Prospects - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

With the second first round draft pick, the New England Patriots should select a 3-4 defensive end (5 technique) to replace Ty Warren at left defensive end. Fletcher Cox from Mississippi State could be a good candidate for example.

NFL Draft - 2012_DT Draft Prospects - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

With the second round draft pick from the Oakland Raiders, the New England Patriots should grab the best available free safety on the board. T.J. McDonald from USC or Robert Lester from Alabama should be prme candidates for example.

NFL Draft - 2012_FS Draft Prospects - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

With the third round draft pick, the New England Patriots should grab the best available cornerback on the board since the New England Patriots defense currently don't have a competent slot cornerback active on the roster.

NFL Draft - 2012_CB Draft Prospects - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

With the fourth round draft pick, the New England Patriots should select either an offensive center, since Dan Koppen will be unrestricted free agent, or safety since the quality depth at the safety position is nearly non-existent.

Thus, the 2012 New England Patriots 3-4 defense would potentially aline as follows:

DL

First Round Draft Pick, Vince Wilfork, Brandon Deaderick

LB

First Round Draft Pick, Brandon Spikes, Jerod Mayo, Rob Ninkovich/Jermaine Cunningham/Markell Carter

S

Patrick Chung, Second Round Draft Pick (from the Oakland Raiders)

CB

Devin McCourty, Ras-I Dowling/Kyle Arrington/3rd Round Draft Pick

Depth issues on defense, especially the defensive secondary, could be resolved through unrestricted free agency.

 

[ATippett56]

You ask the right question. We do need to decide what scheme we're running, and then have a draft that is primarily defense. After all, the offense should be fine. I agree that
a center is likely to be drafted some time in the draft.

Your solution is to start three rookies: at DL, LB, and at S. In addition, you expect to get a 3rd rounder to contribute at corner.

In short you expect to not only have four 'hits" in the draft. You expect the top 3 to start as rookies.
========

Obviously, the patriots would trade a 1st and 2nd for someone they thought could be the next LaMarr Woodley. They would have done the same in the 2011 draft.

With regard to trading up in the first round of the 2012 NFL Draft, as far as I know the Alabama Crimson Tide is the only collegiate football program that runs an effective 3-4 defense. Courtney Upshaw is a bona-fide first round 3-4 outside linebacker who can rush the quarterback.

As for the free safety position, the New England Patriots could possibly look at either Reggie Nelson or Dashon Goldson in unrestricted free agency for example.

2012 NFL Free Agents: DB

As for the cornerback position, the New England Patriots could possibly look at Richard Marshall (originally from Fresno State), however I really do not know his current market value nor whether he would be a good fit at the slot cornerback position.

As for a third rounder contributing at corner, the third rounder would be a dime back behind McCourty, Dowling, Arrington (barring injury, of course) and Asante Samuel, a fourth round draft pick in 2003, was the starting nickel cornerback his rookie season. If the New England Patriots could obtain a nickel/dime cornerback in unrestricted free agency, the third round draft could be utilized for an offensive center or backup free/strong safety.

 

[mgteich]

WHY NOT INCLUDE 2007
The 2007 was an awful draft class. Re-drafts show that Meriweather was a reasonable choice. We got value while he was here. We made no other 1st or 2nd or 3rd round choices. We did use two draft choices to trade for Welker and Moss.
============================================
WHAT ARE HITS?
I think some define hits as studs. You and I probably agree on what the term means. I think sure starter is right for 1st and 2nd round picks, hopefully by his 2nd year. I believe that Spikes was our starting MLB this year and started much of last year at ILB. We all wanted a run-stopping ILB. Belichick was willing to use a 2nd to get one. He succeeded.
============================================
WHY NOT THIRD ROUNDERS?
First, I agree that Belichick has not done well recently in drafting after the 2nd round (other than trades or trading forward for a 2nd round pick). We do have Hernandez, not much to show for all the 3rd and 4th round picks. Belichick has done reasonably well late: Deaderick, Edelman, Pryor, and Slater.

This is a matter of personal preference. I consider Rounds 1 and 2 to be top draft choices. I consider 3rd and 4th rounders to be mid-round choices. In the past, 3rd and 4th rounders were expected to always make the team, barring injury. I consider the last three rounds to be late round picks.

Why did you use 2008 as your cutoff instead of 2007, since the first rounders of 2007 would just be in their last season this year?

Also, how are you defining "hits"? Spikes is a situational player as opposed to a sure starter, yet you've got him listed as a "hit", for example.

Lastly, why didn't you include the 3rd round picks, and make it all of what used to be the "first day" picks?