Curious to hear everyone's thoughts on Welker

[JackBauer]

Absent prohibitive demands, Welker should absolutely be retained. I'd think 3 years would be ideal.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I'm pretty sure that you can't make a deal where the player earns less at the back end. You can load up with a bonus and make the yearly number less, but that exact deal, where you start off making 9/ year and end with 5 can't happen.

There will be a big bonus and a smaller yearly number. That way we can manage a little better if Wes is a passenger in three years.

Actually, to the best of my knowledge there's nothing against having salaries drop per se, but there is a salary cap accounting rule that prevents you from going too crazy with salary drops (e.g., the salary cap hits are not what you would "naively" expect it to be if a player had a two-year deal with $2M SB and salaries of $5M the first year but only $1M the second).

 

[patsfan-1982]

so, let me get this straight. Welker is going to lose 25% of his production because he got a year older? That's essentially what you are saying..

Sorry, but that makes no sense at all..

its not just age, there is no way Brady is going to pass for 5000 yards again if he throws for 4000 yards i just cant see Welker haveing 1500 yards of that with gronk and hernandez on the field, the pass offense was the second best in NFL history last year i dont see any of them haveing the same type of year not Brady Gronk hernandez or Welker all there numbers will be way down

 

[borg]

And I wouldn't be surprised to see them extended during this upcoming year is what I am saying.

Regarding Gronk:
The pie increases by 25% in 2 years...and we all know stars get the biggest shares. The threat of franchising Gronk in '14 may be the only leverage to get a extension in the near future. That franchise number will be tiny compared to his market value and extra dollars available. Gronk should extend for an extra year or two with the specific wording....no future franchise tag. Gronk's future should get very interesting.

 

[bucky]

I don't think you realize what Wayne even at 34 come November will be looking for. He struggled with his backup QB a lot more than the adaptable Welker did, too. Now, maybe Welker's backup was better, but it was Wayne crying about giving his a shot - along with whining about his contract. Aside from Lloyd, it's a crap shoot any of your targets could play in this system. Garcon knows nothing but the Indy system which is a lot more simplistic. And he had his inconsistent moments even within it. I doubt Bill has any more interest in signing Manningham than he did in covering him.

There are lots of things this franchise can waste $4-5M on per season. Adding it to Welker's contract would probably be the least wasteful of them.

I don't know what Wayne will be asking for. In my initial post in this thread - the long one - I went on record saying that Welker probably should and will get resigned here. The question is just how much is he really worth, and what would be option B? You say that adding $4 mil to Welker's contract is not wasteful and you may be right. But what if that money was put towards getting Mario Williams instead of just resigning Andre Carter? Or to get Dhashon Goldson instead of Ihedigbo? Then you have to evaluate the pros and cons of the moves and I personally would rather see the money put towards the defense - but ONLY if Welker's demands are deemed unreasonable.

 

[patsfan13]

Welker's productivity is based on his ability to read the D and make the correct decision on how to run the route clearly he and Brady have great chemistry. I don't think he has the same productivity in a different system, another 3 or 4 years w Brady and he could be a HOF candidate. Which I think he is aware of.

Even adding another wide out to provide a threat outsides the numbers. Welker is a essential part of the O and I don't think Edleman has shown he can replace Welker.

I do disagree about cutting Slater, he is a pro bowl ST players who is limited on O much as S Tasker was for the bills, you don't cut a guy who is arguable the best ST player in the league.

 

[SEA_Pat]

Welker's productivity is based on his ability to read the D and make the correct decision on how to run the route clearly he and Brady have great chemistry. I don't think he has the same productivity in a different system, another 3 or 4 years w Brady and he could be a HOF candidate. Which I think he is aware of.

Even adding another wide out to provide a threat outsides the numbers. Welker is a essential part of the O and I don't think Edleman has shown he can replace Welker.

I do disagree about cutting Slater, he is a pro bowl ST players who is limited on O much as S Tasker was for the bills, you don't cut a guy who is arguable the best ST player in the league.

Totally agree with this. I would also mention that Edelman is already a very valuable member of the team in several roles, adding to his load means you likely subtract something elsewhere. Furthermore, if Wes or he get injured, you've still got a slot guy. If there's only Edelman, and he gets injured while playing D or special teams, what's left for the slot?

 

[Ian]

Totally agree with this. I would also mention that Edelman is already a very valuable member of the team in several roles, adding to his load means you likely subtract something elsewhere. Furthermore, if Wes or he get injured, you've still got a slot guy. If there's only Edelman, and he gets injured while playing D or special teams, what's left for the slot?

My issue with Slater is that other than special teams, he's not a guy who can give them any production at receiver. Like I said, he caught one pass that came on the second play of the first game of the season, and then never caught another. So as nice of a special teams player as he is, you basically made my point that if Edelman gets hurt they don't have another viable option.

They really need a couple of decent guys to go along with Welker. If you read my earlier post you'll see that the group they won a title with (which wasn't fantastic by any means) was more solid than the current group. I just really feel like they need to move on from having a guy who can play special teams well but can't get open and catch the ball to trying to upgrade with someone who can do both.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Must resign. He's productive, consistent, and extremely durable aside from one major freak injury. Add on that he is your prototypical Patriot and the Brady chemistry. It's an easy choice, especially when you've had time to cool off from 'the drop' and think with a level head.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

My issue with Slater is that other than special teams, he's not a guy who can give them any production at receiver. Like I said, he caught one pass that came on the second play of the first game of the season, and then never caught another. So as nice of a special teams player as he is, you basically made my point that if Edelman gets hurt they don't have another viable option.

They really need a couple of decent guys to go along with Welker. If you read my earlier post you'll see that the group they won a title with (which wasn't fantastic by any means) was more solid than the current group. I just really feel like they need to move on from having a guy who can play special teams well but can't get open and catch the ball to trying to upgrade with someone who can do both.

I wonder if Slater's problem "really" is that he can't get open so much as he never got the chance to learn how to do it in an NFL game.

 

[Ian]

I wonder if Slater's problem "really" is that he can't get open so much as he never got the chance to learn how to do it in an NFL game.

That's O.K., I'll moan and groan about it and then he'll go out and catch 50+ balls next year and end up being the guy that I wish they'd go out and replace him with. Although I won't mind being wrong about him

 

[bucky]

Let me get this straight. You think that replacing a 125 catch-1500 yard receiver is EASY just by spreading the ball around?

Edelman would be lucky to produce 60% of Welker's production. Then you have Gronkowski and Hernandez picking up MORE receptions? When those two are going to be the top coverage priorities of other teams? I think that getting 2200 yards out of your 2 TEs (or whatever the total was) is about the MAX you can hope for.

So, now you are expecting the other WR to pick up 90-100 receptions..

Now, I can't explain why, but we've seen almost NO RB screens the past 3 years. Yes, they got Woodhead involved, but his reception production was down because of injury this year.

Sorry, but it would be a LOT harder than you acknowledge to replace Welker's production.

Let's assume the TEs produce the same....

If you bring in another "outside the numbers" WR (Like Lloyd or Wayne), like everyone agrees should be done, it will already cut into Welker's career-high 172 targets, therefore decreasing his productivity. Let's just say it cuts into it by 15% - that's 235 less yards that you need. In other words, your new WR will outperform Branch by 235 yards - getting about 950 yards on 70 catches.

You already mentioned that they threw to the RBs less in 2011 than ever before. Some of that may be the RBs themselves, but mostly it's the fact that Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez are almost always the primary looks for Brady. So getting back to '09 and '10 yardage numbers, 250 yards can be made up by the RBs.

That leaves 1100 yards. If you're saying Edelman can give you even 50% of Welker's production - that's 800 yards. So now we're looking to find a #2/3 receiver who can get you the remaining 300 yards, plus replace the 300 you got from Ocho and Underwood. Personally, I think that's quite doable.

My final point is that it's unrealistic to expect Brady to throw 611 times for 5235 yards. Both of those were career highs for him. Investing some of that saved money into the D will make it less necessary to get so many points and yards.

 

[NEGoldenAge]

Let's assume the TEs produce the same....

If you bring in another "outside the numbers" WR (Like Lloyd or Wayne), like everyone agrees should be done, it will already cut into Welker's career-high 172 targets, therefore decreasing his productivity.

I think a legitimate deep threat will help Welker more than hurt him. Although he may be thrown to a smaller % of the time, that would be mitigated by having an offense that can score very quickly and will be less likely to punt than last years team. Welker will likely have much better YAC with safeties playing deeper. When you consider how often he's tackled just shy of a TD, he'll likely have significantly more touch downs too.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Let's assume the TEs produce the same....

If you bring in another "outside the numbers" WR (Like Lloyd or Wayne), like everyone agrees should be done, it will already cut into Welker's career-high 172 targets, therefore decreasing his productivity. Let's just say it cuts into it by 15% - that's 235 less yards that you need. In other words, your new WR will outperform Branch by 235 yards - getting about 950 yards on 70 catches.

You already mentioned that they threw to the RBs less in 2011 than ever before. Some of that may be the RBs themselves, but mostly it's the fact that Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez are almost always the primary looks for Brady. So getting back to '09 and '10 yardage numbers, 250 yards can be made up by the RBs.

That leaves 1100 yards. If you're saying Edelman can give you even 50% of Welker's production - that's 800 yards. So now we're looking to find a #2/3 receiver who can get you the remaining 300 yards, plus replace the 300 you got from Ocho and Underwood. Personally, I think that's quite doable.

My final point is that it's unrealistic to expect Brady to throw 611 times for 5235 yards. Both of those were career highs for him. Investing some of that saved money into the D will make it less necessary to get so many points and yards.

What saved money...and at what cost. And what you are disregarding is that despite a record setting season of production from this offense it had no margin for error when it mattered most. You are suggesting they strive to have even less. And that was despite an already above average performance by the defense we all want to improve upon. Less isn't always more.

 

[Heisenberg]

Absolutely love Welker. He's one of the best Patriots I've seen in my lifetime. That said, I am open to all scenarios for next year, including letting him walk. I'm not going to say we HAVE to sign him or we HAVE to let him walk. It's all about evaluating the options that FA and the draft provide. If letting him walk will allow us to bring in some playmakers on D and we then choose to also draft a WR in the first or second round or bring in Lloyd/another decent FA WR I could be game for that.

We don't need the second best offense of all time again to win the Super Bowl. We need our youth on D to continue to improve, to bring in some veteran talent alongside them, and for our offense to have a few playmakers and balance. We certainly are going to have a great O-Line, Brady, Gronk and Hernandez. I think Ridley and BJGE or Ridley and Vereen will be a very solid rushing attack. Welker is a great player and a great teammate but isn't vital to another Super Bowl run, especially with our cap flexibility, a stacked FA WR class and 4 picks in the first two rounds. Improve the team as much as possible, with Welker or not. Since we have zero insight into FA/Trade/Draft evaluations there is no reason to claim Welker must or mustn't be signed. I trust Bill to do the right thing with the information he has. He's never fallen in love with a high-profile player which is why we've been consistently in the running for the title for the last decade.

 

[bucky]

I think a legitimate deep threat will help Welker more than hurt him. Although he may be thrown to a smaller % of the time, that would be mitigated by having an offense that can score very quickly and will be less likely to punt than last years team. Welker will likely have much better YAC with safeties playing deeper. When you consider how often he's tackled just shy of a TD, he'll likely have significantly more touch downs too.

Well, Welker had the best yds/catch and YAC/catch averages of his career this year. Without any so-called deep threat.

What you are saying is true - it will help Welker get open and give him more room to operate underneath. But it will clearly take away from his overall numbers, thus making him easier to replace - not that I'm saying he's easy to replace. I'm merely pointing out that there is an option B.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Let's assume the TEs produce the same....

If you bring in another "outside the numbers" WR (Like Lloyd or Wayne), like everyone agrees should be done, it will already cut into Welker's career-high 172 targets, therefore decreasing his productivity. Let's just say it cuts into it by 15% - that's 235 less yards that you need. In other words, your new WR will outperform Branch by 235 yards - getting about 950 yards on 70 catches.

2007:
Moss—160 targets
Welker—145
Stallworth—74
Faulk—59
===TOP 4: 438
Gaffney—50
Watson—49
K. Brady—16

2011:
Welker—173
GRONK—124
Hernandez—113
Branch—90
===TOP 4: 500
Ochocinco—32
Woodhead—31
BJGE—13

 

[NEGoldenAge]

Well, Welker had the best yds/catch and YAC/catch averages of his career this year. Without any so-called deep threat.

What you are saying is true - it will help Welker get open and give him more room to operate underneath. But it will clearly take away from his overall numbers, thus making him easier to replace - not that I'm saying he's easy to replace. I'm merely pointing out that there is an option B.

I agree that he will catch a lower % of the total balls. But I think that the offense will have more overall plays because of more drives, and the ability to sustain them longer. I think that the defense will also improve, giving the offense even more plays/drives.

He might not have quite the number of catches, but he'll probably get near 100 and have more yards and TDs if he stays healthy and the offense has a legit deep threat.

 

[bucky]

What saved money...and at what cost. And what you are disregarding is that despite a record setting season of production from this offense it had no margin for error when it mattered most. You are suggesting they strive to have even less. And that was despite an already above average performance by the defense we all want to improve upon. Less isn't always more.

My entire premise - from the beginning - is that by letting Welker walk, the team would be saving money that it could apply towards defensive improvements.

Improving upon Branch/Ocho with better outside WRs will give the team more margin. Improving the defense will give the team a much larger margin. What I'm suggesting will make the team more balanced. And it will make the offense more balanced. Over 28% of Brady's passed were thrown to Welker this year - that's more than ever, even more than he threw to Moss in 2007.

 

[mls]

If we let Welker go, he will be on the Jets.And that sucks