Curious to hear everyone's thoughts on Welker

[patfanken]

Welker will someday be too old to be a real factor,but now is not that time,he is surely capable of at least another 1,000 yard season,something Edelman will never sniff in one season.

Get him signed NOW and then look ahead in the not too distant future to be taking care of Gronk EARLY with a long extension by late 2012.

One single play will never define Welker's contibution to the Pats the last 5 years. That's ridiculous. One the other hand, there is no question that that Pats are in that dangerous land when you have to make a decision to pay a player money today and into the future, for production they have accomplished in the past.

No one here questions that Welker's production over the past 5 years far exceeded his cap numbers. But I would think that if he signed a 3 or 4 year contract at over $8MM'/yr, I think we would all agree that by the end of that contract, the opposite would be true, and he would be making far more than his production would warrant.

Its a real tough question. Do you overpay a great player at the end of his career as a reward for those years where he was underpaid. Or do you recognize the finite life of an NFL player, especially one of Welker's age and size, and offer to pay him for what you expect him produce as as his production goes down.

Welker has taken an enormous beating over the last five years and has been REMARKABLY durable. I believe his decline, when it happens, WON'T be gradual. It will be fast and painful to watch (much like Troy's last season) Injuries will also start to be a factor. So here is what I would offer him.

Year one - $9.4MM guaranteed
Year two - $6.6MM guaranteed plus $3MM in incentives
Year Three $3.MM guaranteed plus $5MM in incentives
Year four $1MM guaranteed plus 7MM in incentives

You set the incentives up so they are purely based on production and the number of snaps he plays. None of that All pro crap. Thus if he surprises me and continues a similar production average all four years, then he'll get paid at an elite level. If its starts to seriously fall off after the first 2 years, as I suspect, then the way the contract is set up, he'll never end up being seriously overpaid those last 2 years.

If he chooses to accept that kind of deal that is fair to the team AND to him, then fine. If he wants more, then I'd let him walk. I also think he understands that part of his success is due the system he's in and the QB he has, so something like this probably will get done.

However if he walks I wouldn't be surprised to see Julian Edelman produce very similar numbers to what you'd expect from a quality slot receiver in this system, which would be in the range of 90+ catches, over 1000 yds, and 6+ TDs. I think that Edelman could provide that kind of product in this offense if he were getting Welker's snaps. In my mind he's a very intriguing player. He has the measurables. He has the toughness. And at this point he has the WR experience to blossom into a quality NFL WR.

So unlike PatsfanPA, if Welker does choose to walk, this fan won't be ready to slit my wrists, I think he'd would surprise a lot of people here.

 

[borg]

Any apprehension giving Welker the giant contract may stem from the reality that WW has limitations....and the SB drop emphasizes those limitations. Welker is best suited in front of the coverage. Pass routes where Brady has to drop the ball over the LBs to a smallish target adds more risk to the offense. Face it, a 6'+" player makes that catch. But because the WR and TE corps were limited, WW gets the call....and BB hoped WW could be something he's not. Basically a TE route designed for the smallest guy on the field.
After watching the replay of that drop, the first thought that came to mind was Vincent Jackson....and how the Pats triple teamed him repeatedly early in the season. But Rivers kept feeding him because the Pats had no answer for his size advantage....a massive target where a QB only has to keep air under his passes and put it on line.

But the offseason dust is settling and WW is the best at what he does so the Pats will step up. And reflecting back at the "drop"....I need to remember that that pass was designed for a healthy Gronk.

 

[Crazy Patriot Guy]

Not only has the drop clouded some people's opinion of his worth to the team, IMO some people see that the Pats need that vertical threat, and Welker's not it. They feel we can go out and sign Colston or Vincent Jackson and hope Edelman can step up as the #2, essentially killing two birds with one stone. Whether that's right or wrong, I think that's why there seems to be a less than unanimous push to re-sign him.

Personally, I think it's a huge risk to assume we could go out and land one of those top free agents. We could very well lose Welker and get no one of substance in return.

 

[borg]

Not only has the drop clouded some people's opinion of his worth to the team, IMO some people see that the Pats need that vertical threat, and Welker's not it. They feel we can go out and sign Colston or Vincent Jackson and hope Edelman can step up as the #2, essentially killing two birds with one stone. Whether that's right or wrong, I think that's why there seems to be a less than unanimous push to re-sign him.

Personally, I think it's a huge risk to assume we could go out and land one of those top free agents. We could very well lose Welker and get no one of substance in return.

Funny you mention Colston....the SB Welker pass....that pass is right in Colston's wheelhouse. Large slot receiver that works the post pattern better than most.

 

[NEGoldenAge]

Welker is worth more to the Patriots than to any other team in the NFL. As long as he is reasonable about how much money he wants. he will be signed. If he wants more than the Pats think he is worth, he'll probably be tagged, because he is too important to the team.

Condisering the high number of of good WR FAs out there and the relatively bad cap shape most teams are in, the price for good WRs is going to shrink. Because of that, I believe that Welker will likely be tagged, and then a deal worked out once the price of WRs becomes clear. He'll probably get about 8.5 million per year for 3-4 years.

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

welker should be on the pats as long as tom brady... as much as i would love the pats to make a play on mike wallace and use a first round pick on him...i cant see the pats paying 2 high price recivers... i think pats should sign brandon lloyd... resign welker , sign deion branch to a one year deal... and draft 1-2 recivers to develop... chad is toast...

 

[ivanvamp]

I cannot think of one rational reason to not lock up Wes Welker.

I agree, unless what it will require is something absurd, like 4-5 years at $12 mil per. But I don't think anyone expects that to be the price.

I think the wise thing to do would be to sign him to a 4-year deal for about $30 million, structured something like this:

2012 - $9 mil ($8 mil guaranteed)
2013 - $8 mil ($7 mil guaranteed)
2014 - $7 mil
2015 - $6 mil

I don't know how to do the details, but basically make it so that you pay him a lot for the next two years, which is when you expect him to have his best production, but make those last two years totally cuttable (not a word, but you know what I mean) without penalty. So if he shows signs of really slowing down, you can release him if necessary at no (or very little) cost against the cap. Gives Welker the 4-year deal he wants, gives him $15 million guaranteed, but protects the Pats against decline as the contract goes on.

 

[bucky]

I love Welker as a player and I think he's a great role model. His performance has dwarfed his compensation over the last 5 years and I hope he gets every penny he can because he deserves it.

That said, from a NE Patriots fan perspective, I don't think Welker is worth the kind of top WR money (~$9 mil/yr) people are talking about. My reasons are as follows:

1) Welker would not be this productive in practically any other offense in the NFL. He has probably the most accurate QB in the NFL throwing him the ball, which is important for a guy his size who goes over the middle so much. If Brady was to hang him out to dry 4-5 more times per year, Welker could get seriously hurt. Which leads to reason #2:

2) Welker take a ton of punishment. He's been remarkably durable, but you can just see the results of the hits piling up and I think the potential is there to miss a significant number of games over the next 3 years. Certainly, it's a significant risk.

3) Hernandez runs the same routes as Welker with pretty good results. Edelman can also give you a large percentage of Welker's production for a small fraction of the cost. In general, slot WRs are not that hard to find. Yes, Welker is as good or better than all of them, but you have to factor the risk/rewards as well as the cost/benefit analysis.

4)Speaking of cost/benefit, $9 mil/year is probably enough (or pretty close) to sign both Lloyd and Wayne, thus giving the Patriots 2 legit WRs who are threats outside the numbers, while allowing Gronk, Hernandez, Edelman, Woodhead, etc. to work the middle of the field. Since most here presume the Patriots need 1 of the Lloyd/Wayne WR type to go along with Welker, this represents a saving of anywhere between $3-5 mil/year - money that the Patriots should put into improving the defense.

In the end, I think Kraft and BB value Welker quite a bit and Wes understands his situation and wants to win above all else. So I expect him to resign here on a more team-friendly deal than most people expect. Something along the lines of 3 years, $21 mil, with about $15 mil guaranteed.

 

[everlong]

It depends on what the sticking point is financially. It's been rumored he wants to be paid for his production and get Larry Fitzgerald money. If that's true he's high because at 31 it's not happening. Realistically at 26 it's not going to happen for a slot receiver. They will franchise him for sure.

If the Pats are low balling him with some 3/15 type of offer shame on them as well. I want him to stay and I think something in the 3/24 or 4/28 range with 10M guaranteed is about right.

If he's stuck on a figure like 10/40 does anybody think the Pats are going to pay that? That's not value especially at 31 and counting. Maybe he's a genetic freak who beats the odds but they are stacked against it happening. The Pats pay for projected future performance not past performance.

If he wanted that money and they turned around and traded him for a second rounder. Then signed Wayne and Lloyd to 3/15-18 type of contracts. Cut Chad. Then used Edelman and the TEs to make up the difference over the middle they would be a more diverse offense with two solid outside receivers to open up the middle.

Love Welker, hope he stays but I can see scenarios playing out where the Pats cut bait and take the better value. If they do most of the people saying he cannot be cut will be singing BB's praises for trading him for basically the same price it took to get him while getting the best 5 years of his career out of him.

One more factor is keeping Tom happy. Wes is a smart man vacationing with him.

 

[Leemo]

multi year extension for wes, front loaded as suggested previously, as the years progress less guaranteed and more in incentives

Then sign wallace and a draft pick and we're good to go, high powered offense with potential to be better than the season just gone and 2007

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Some apparently long for the prototypical WR who can take over a game, even though neither has been able to do that to the level it would be demanded here leading to the invariable Brady is being stubborn whines (see we've been there and done that...).

Some see Edleperson as the second coming, although his track record for durability and body of work in limited usage screams versatile backup and short term insurance at best.

I remember when Bill signed some guy named Harrison and all the pundits predicted it was a 2 year bandaid at best because he was past his prime and pretty beat up over that period. Wonder what Bill would have paid or traded for just the last 3 years of that guys 6 year deal back in this past season...probably double the $3M per he averaged. Because it turns out he'd have been well worth a 6/$36 deal even when we got him on the wrong side of 30.

Welker has done nothing but get better for 5 seasons. He's proven to all but the most irrational fanboys that he wasn't a product of having Moss to play with or Brady to throw to him. People just hate to admit they were dead wrong about what he was and what he was capable of doing here as a result. Wes is no more a product of the system than his QB is. What both are is perfect fits for this system because they are consistently productive even as they are adaptable.

There are only 2 guys on this team I have no concern about making you regret extending yourself by paying them. He's one. And I'm no chump because I'd have never given Moss 3/$27M based on the way he performed down the stretch in 2007 alone. Welker and Brady will never quit even when they have to be basically carried off the field. There is just no quit in them. Welker should have been extended in the 2010 season, but like Brady they had reservations because they needed to see it again with their own eyes. Welker showed them this season, and the smart move would have been to get the deal done before this season ended for cap management purposes. No point in compounding that error now.

Welker may have dropped a pass. But the fact remains had Gronk been healthy it likely wouldn't have mattered. You don't get better by first getting worse and then rolling the dice that you will somehow end up getting better. Had the young Steeler's WR so many here covet gone MIA down the stretch here as he did in Pittsburgh in just his 3rd season, patsfans would be out with pitchforks looking to flip him while his stock hype remains high... Colston couldn't seem to save the day for Brees and NO this season, so why folks assume he absolutely would here is beyond me. And when it comes to beat up... Then of course there is Reggie whose best years are clearly behind him. Lloyd would probably represent the best bet as a complimentary piece, which is all they need provided they don't do something foolish. The issue is what do they believe they can afford to pay that complimentary piece. They paid one $6M this year on a $4M average 3 year deal and it ended up being a waste of roster space, draft capital and cash as well as cap.

This team paid Matt Light $7M to return as their LT this season, and committed $8M+ apiece to Mankins and Mayo. Welker would have provided them more bang for their buck, as he consistently has since the day he arrived on a deal many here said was a serious overpay...

Dating back 4 years ago when the cap was lower still and a potential lockout loomed, this team paid $13M+ for their top two WR's, they just paid the lions share of it to the wrong one. They can afford to pay Wes $8-9M per and still pay $5-6M for a viable outside threat, which is all they need to improve this offense provided they don't first eviscerate it by removing the little engine that drives it.

 

[vyrago]

There are some "Grass-is-always-greener" types on this board, but in this case I believe they are dead wrong. I think the Patriots should sign him to a three or four year deal with lots of guaranteed upfront money the first two years and highly incentive laden from year 3-4.

 

[Sivy]

Welker is a must IMO.

Here is the thing, AH and Gronk havent even peaked or come close to it, and the better they get, the more teams are going to forget about Welker. And that will KILL THEM.

It will be grand.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

I'm pretty sure that you can't make a deal where the player earns less at the back end. You can load up with a bonus and make the yearly number less, but that exact deal, where you start off making 9/ year and end with 5 can't happen.

There will be a big bonus and a smaller yearly number. That way we can manage a little better if Wes is a passenger in three years.

 

[everlong]

Dating back 4 years ago when the cap was lower still and a potential lockout loomed, this team paid $13M+ for their top two WR's, they just paid the lions share of it to the wrong one. They can afford to pay Wes $8-9M per and still pay $5-6M for a viable outside threat, which is all they need to improve this offense provided they don't first eviscerate it by removing the little engine that drives it.

If they can bring him back for 3/24 they should. The problem is going to be if he wants 4/40. I don't blame him for wanting to get paid. His last contract might be the single best value ever, it's certainly up there. I also can't blame the Patriots for not breaking their value system and paying him 4/40 for past performance. I don't think it's an argument over wanting him back. I think 99% of us do and I beleive the Patriots do. The issue is going to be what's the Patriots and Welker's threshold and can they meet in the middle?

 

[bucky]

Some see Edleperson as the second coming, although his track record for durability and body of work in limited usage screams versatile backup and short term insurance at best.

Welker has missed 5 games in 2009 and 2010 (including the Houston game when he got injured on the first drive). In those 5 games, Edelman has 34 receptions, 337 yards, 2 TDs. Just saying. He's not Welker. And there are definitely durability concerns. I'm just pointing out his numbers as a starting slot WR when Welker's not in the lineup.

 

[borg]

Looking at free agent signings in general, I think everyone needs to pay attention to the Packers TE Finley and the two year contract he opted for. The salary cap explodes in two years from the $125 mill range now to the $150-$160 mill range in '14. Welker may be too old to risk not signing a long term contract...but like Finley, young stars and their agents will want to position themselves to be in front of the line when this new wave of cash gets unleashed. The Gronk is sitting in a very pretty seat with his contract expiring as the cap increases. No way in hell his agent allows Gronk to extend his Pats contract.
Personally, I think Welker will hitch his ride to Brady and sign a 3 year contract....expiring the same time as Brady....for $9 mill/season....what Moss was paid. Deep down, I think Belichick is hoping Welker's agent only wants a two year contract that gets Wes to the new money windfall. I'll make a friendly wager that Pitt's Wallace extends with Pitt for only two years. Bowe may try the same tactic
Finally...they have to sign Welker. With Brady's career appraching an end, this is no time to get back to auditioning new WRs and coaching 'em up. Wes is a sure thing...almost

 

[ivanvamp]

I'm pretty sure that you can't make a deal where the player earns less at the back end. You can load up with a bonus and make the yearly number less, but that exact deal, where you start off making 9/ year and end with 5 can't happen.

There will be a big bonus and a smaller yearly number. That way we can manage a little better if Wes is a passenger in three years.

You can't construct a contract where a guy makes less later on? That doesn't make sense. If that's what the player agrees to, how can it not be allowable?

But ok, let's say you're right. Just do it this way:

2012: $6 mil ($6 mil guaranteed)
2013: $7 mil ($7 mil guaranteed)
2014: $8 mil
2015: $9 mil

And give him a $2 mil signing bonus that is applied to the 2012 cap. So he still gets his $15 million guaranteed, but this way the Pats can cut him if they need to after 2013.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Welker should be kept at all costs UNLESS he wants 10-12 million dollars a year.

That's how I see it.

 

[everlong]

Looking at free agent signings in general, I think everyone needs to pay attention to the Packers TE Finley and the two year contract he opted for. The salary cap explodes in two years from the $125 mill range now to the $150-$160 mill range in '14. Welker may be too old to risk not signing a long term contract...but like Finley, young stars and their agents will want to position themselves to be in front of the line when this new wave of cash gets unleashed. The Gronk is sitting in a very pretty seat with his contract expiring as the cap increases. No way in hell his agent allows Gronk to extend his Pats contract.
Personally, I think Welker will hitch his ride to Brady and sign a 3 year contract....expiring the same time as Brady....for $9 mill/season....what Moss was paid. Deep down, I think Belichick is hoping Welker's agent only wants a two year contract that gets Wes to the new money windfall. I'll make a friendly wager that Pitt's Wallace extends with Pitt for only two years. Bowe may try the same tactic
Finally...they have to sign Welker. With Brady's career appraching an end, this is no time to get back to auditioning new WRs and coaching 'em up. Wes is a sure thing...almost

Great points. I hope you're right about Welker wanting to be joined at the hip with Brady. I wish they could extend Gronk and AH now but they are both going to get paid really well in two years by somebody. Hopefully they'll extend one in advance for leverage on the other with the franchise tag. Gronk and Graham of NO could end up being 10M+ per year TEs which would have been unheard of.