Curious to hear everyone's thoughts on Welker

[MoLewisrocks]

I'm pretty sure that you can't make a deal where the player earns less at the back end. You can load up with a bonus and make the yearly number less, but that exact deal, where you start off making 9/ year and end with 5 can't happen.

There will be a big bonus and a smaller yearly number. That way we can manage a little better if Wes is a passenger in three years.

Sure you can. Brady's last deal was exactly that. Those deals make it easier to retain the player because you have room/flexibility to increasingly amortize as you go if you need or choose to. The trade off is risk because you're paying more up front than per year production alone justifies. Deals are more often backloaded with salary when they are phony deals to fluff agent and player egos no one honestly expects to be completed because the cap hit is prohibitive and the dead cap low enough to leverage the player to take a pay cut or hit the road. We have tended to avoid those kind of ego stroking, self destructively structured deals since the Law/Milloy era passed.

 

[NEGoldenAge]

Great points. I hope you're right about Welker wanting to be joined at the hip with Brady. I wish they could extend Gronk and AH now but they are both going to get paid really well in two years by somebody. Hopefully they'll extend one in advance for leverage on the other with the franchise tag. Gronk and Graham of NO could end up being 10M+ per year TEs which would have been unheard of.

I doubt Gronk and AH want to be extended now. Salaries for productive players are going to skyrocket in 2014. By that time, the Pats should have enough capt room to extend both.

 

[everlong]

I doubt Gronk and AH want to be extended now. Salaries for productive players are going to skyrocket in 2014. By that time, the Pats should have enough capt room to extend both.

That's pretty much what we were agreeing on. I was more thinking with one year left they offer them a good deal with security as to avoid letting them hit the open market. Look at Mayo's deal. Maybe duplicate that for Gronk with one year left.

 

[NEGoldenAge]

That's pretty much what we were agreeing on. I was more thinking with one year left they offer them a good deal with security as to avoid letting them hit the open market. Look at Mayo's deal. Maybe duplicate that for Gronk with one year left.

I think the Pats would love to do that, but I'm sure their agents don't want to. Not only is the 2014 salary going to increase for all positions, the TE position is being revolutionized and becoming much more important across the leauge. The TE position will be demanding a bigger piece of the pie.

 

[bucky]

I doubt Gronk and AH want to be extended now. Salaries for productive players are going to skyrocket in 2014. By that time, the Pats should have enough capt room to extend both.

They are both earning just about minimum NFL salaries for 2012 and 2013. So surely, they'd love to extend if it means they get paid closer to market rate over the next 2 years. But the Pats would never do it. Of course at this time next year, I'm sure they'll be negotiating with both.

 

[NEGoldenAge]

They are both earning just about minimum NFL salaries for 2012 and 2013. So surely, they'd love to extend if it means they get paid closer to market rate over the next 2 years. But the Pats would never do it. Of course at this time next year, I'm sure they'll be negotiating with both.

I sure hope that you are right.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Welker has missed 5 games in 2009 and 2010 (including the Houston game when he got injured on the first drive). In those 5 games, Edelman has 34 receptions, 337 yards, 2 TDs. Just saying. He's not Welker. And there are definitely durability concerns. I'm just pointing out his numbers as a starting slot WR when Welker's not in the lineup.

Edleman had a nice rookie season going until he broke his arm. What he generally proved though was to not be nearly good enough to replace Welker, let alone long term when defenses would have a bead on him. Then in 2010 he had a miserable season between injuries and dropsies. This season he was used mostly as a DB. He's a stop gap slot receiver and a punt returner with some emergency versatility and coachability that makes him worth a roster spot.

 

[bucky]

Edleman had a nice rookie season going until he broke his arm. What he generally proved though was to not be nearly good enough to replace Welker, let alone long term when defenses would have a bead on him. Then in 2010 he had a miserable season between injuries and dropsies. This season he was used mostly as a DB. He's a stop gap slot receiver and a punt returner with some emergency versatility and coachability that makes him worth a roster spot.

Edelman came back after the broken arm and was the Patriots' best player in that awful playoff loss. He's definitely had some injury issues. In 2011, he was stuck behind an abundance of outstanding inside receivers - Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez. So he didn't get a chance.

I'm not saying he can replace Welker all by himself. But as a slot receiver who plays about half the snaps, he can be productive. Obviously, my premise here is for the Pats to get 2 starting-caliber WRs such as Lloyd, Wayne, Garcon, Manningham, etc. without having to shell out franchise-type bucks for 1 guy. Between those 2 guys, Branch, Edelman, the 2 TEs, and Woodhead ( or hopefully Vereen), Welker's stats are very replaceable.

 

[DaBruinz]

But I'm just trying to understand the thoughts of some of the people who are cool with letting Welker walk and would love to know who would like to see them keep him (whether it's franchising him, or an extension) vs people that want to see them move in another direction and why they feel that way.

Ian - the biggest misconception is that people think that the Pats will get 80% of the production out of Edelman that they get out of Welker for 1/10th the money. The problem is that they are fooling themselves.

Edelman has teased us with his potential, but he's not been consistent.

People claim the Pats had David Patten and Deion Branch as "down-field" threats back in 2004, but those two were excellent in the intermediate and YAC. And that's what the pats need. Someone who can consistently get open in the intermediate areas. That will force the opposing defense to pull the safeties back and open up the running game and the underneath passing game.

People just don't realize how GOOD Wes Welker is. And the combination of Welker and Brady is better than anything this team has ever had.

The Pats need to re-sign Welker and add at least one receiver who can get open consistently. A possession guy would be great. Especially one who works the intermediate routes. Having a rookie behind him who can earn Brady's trust would be great. Adding a TE like Fleener or Ladarius Green as the 3rd TE would also go a LONG way to helping the team out. Green has Gronks hands and arms, but Hernandez's speed and route running ability. Where Green is weak is blocking. As the 3rd TE, though, the Pats can afford to work with him on the side to improve that.

 

[DaBruinz]

They are both earning just about minimum NFL salaries for 2012 and 2013. So surely, they'd love to extend if it means they get paid closer to market rate over the next 2 years. But the Pats would never do it. Of course at this time next year, I'm sure they'll be negotiating with both.

Just like the Pats would never extend Mayo with more than 2 years remaining on his contract???

My guess is the Pats WILL try to extend both Gronk and Hernandez, giving them bonus money upfront and allowing it to be spread over 5 years.

 

[DarrylS]

Ian - the biggest misconception is that people think that the Pats will get 80% of the production out of Edelman that they get out of Welker for 1/10th the money. The problem is that they are fooling themselves.

Edelman has teased us with his potential, but he's not been consistent.

People claim the Pats had David Patten and Deion Branch as "down-field" threats back in 2004, but those two were excellent in the intermediate and YAC. And that's what the pats need. Someone who can consistently get open in the intermediate areas. That will force the opposing defense to pull the safeties back and open up the running game and the underneath passing game.

People just don't realize how GOOD Wes Welker is. And the combination of Welker and Brady is better than anything this team has ever had.

The Pats need to re-sign Welker and add at least one receiver who can get open consistently. A possession guy would be great. Especially one who works the intermediate routes. Having a rookie behind him who can earn Brady's trust would be great. Adding a TE like Fleener or Ladarius Green as the 3rd TE would also go a LONG way to helping the team out. Green has Gronks hands and arms, but Hernandez's speed and route running ability. Where Green is weak is blocking. As the 3rd TE, though, the Pats can afford to work with him on the side to improve that.

Although other teams may pay more, Welker is more valuable to this team than he will be to other teams.. as we know how to capitalize on his strengths...

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Edelman came back after the broken arm and was the Patriots' best player in that awful playoff loss. He's definitely had some injury issues. In 2011, he was stuck behind an abundance of outstanding inside receivers - Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez. So he didn't get a chance. I'm not saying he can replace Welker all by himself. But as a slot receiver who plays about half the snaps, he can be productive. Obviously, my premise here is for the Pats to get 2 starting-caliber WRs such as Lloyd, Wayne, Garcon, Manningham, etc. without having to shell out franchise-type bucks for 1 guy. Between those 2 guys, Branch, Edelman, the 2 TEs, and Woodhead ( or hopefully Vereen), Welker's stats are very replaceable.

I don't think you realize what Wayne even at 34 come November will be looking for. He struggled with his backup QB a lot more than the adaptable Welker did, too. Now, maybe Welker's backup was better, but it was Wayne crying about giving his a shot - along with whining about his contract. Aside from Lloyd, it's a crap shoot any of your targets could play in this system. Garcon knows nothing but the Indy system which is a lot more simplistic. And he had his inconsistent moments even within it. I doubt Bill has any more interest in signing Manningham than he did in covering him.

There are lots of things this franchise can waste $4-5M on per season. Adding it to Welker's contract would probably be the least wasteful of them.

 

[Mainefan]

Thoughts on Welker? That's easy. Do whatever it takes to sign him. Period.

 

[DaBruinz]

Edelman came back after the broken arm and was the Patriots' best player in that awful playoff loss. He's definitely had some injury issues. In 2011, he was stuck behind an abundance of outstanding inside receivers - Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez. So he didn't get a chance.

I'm not saying he can replace Welker all by himself. But as a slot receiver who plays about half the snaps, he can be productive. Obviously, my premise here is for the Pats to get 2 starting-caliber WRs such as Lloyd, Wayne, Garcon, Manningham, etc. without having to shell out franchise-type bucks for 1 guy. Between those 2 guys, Branch, Edelman, the 2 TEs, and Woodhead ( or hopefully Vereen), Welker's stats are very replaceable.

Let me get this straight. You think that replacing a 125 catch-1500 yard receiver is EASY just by spreading the ball around?

Edelman would be lucky to produce 60% of Welker's production. Then you have Gronkowski and Hernandez picking up MORE receptions? When those two are going to be the top coverage priorities of other teams? I think that getting 2200 yards out of your 2 TEs (or whatever the total was) is about the MAX you can hope for.

So, now you are expecting the other WR to pick up 90-100 receptions..

Now, I can't explain why, but we've seen almost NO RB screens the past 3 years. Yes, they got Woodhead involved, but his reception production was down because of injury this year.

Sorry, but it would be a LOT harder than you acknowledge to replace Welker's production.

 

[patsfan-1982]

to think that Welker is going to have a 1500 yard season next year is crazy 90 rec and 1000 yards sounds about right after that he's numbers are only going to go down as he and Brady get older so the Question is do the pats want to pay 20 million up front and a cap hit of 7.5 to 8 million for a ageing WR when the real problem is the Defense ?


as a fan i want Welker back but i dont think it would be a good business move to pay a 31 year old WR that much when there are so many holes on defense, get a running game going and Draft a solid WR that can get 60 rec for 800 yards and with gronk and hernandez i dont think the offense will miss a beat

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Just like the Pats would never extend Mayo with more than 2 years remaining on his contract??? My guess is the Pats WILL try to extend both Gronk and Hernandez, giving them bonus money upfront and allowing it to be spread over 5 years.

Mayo signed a 5 year rookie deal in 2008. He signed a 5 year extension in mid December 2012. He was essentially through 4 of his 5 rookie years. That would equate to Gronk or Hern being offered deals at the end of this coming season, their 3rd of 4...

Jonathan was asked about extending these two a few weeks back and his reply was they are only half way through their rookie deals.

 

[jmt57]

Welker is such an integral part of the Patriots offense that to me it would be foolish to let him walk away, unless he is demanding an absurd amount of money. Time will tell and perhaps I will be wrong but he just doesn't strike me as that type of person.

Welker is still highly productive, and this year we saw something we had not seen previously - his running deeper seam routes. It is extremely rare for opposing defenses to be able to contain him, even when stopping him is their primary focus. With the emergence of Gronkowski and Hernandez more opponents will focus on the tight ends; that in turn should re-open more opportunities for Welker.

I'm with the others that say many Pats fans are over estimating Edelman's ability to replace Welker without a noticeable drop-off in production from that position specifically, or from the offense in general. You don't just plug another guy in and expect the offense to make up for that 1569 yards, 122 receptions and nine touchdowns without a hiccup.

I would say a four year contract sounds right, but I'm not sure what the best way to structure it is. On one hand you may want to front load it so that if his skills decline or he starts to suffer from injuries the contract does not become a burden to the team. On the other hand the cap is expected to rise dramatically in 2014 when new network deals kick in; would the team be better off working out a deal that's more back loaded to take advantage of that? If so the upside is that it would also leave more room to spend on defense (and yes, a wide receiver too) in free agency right now.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

to think that Welker is going to have a 1500 yard season next year is crazy 90 rec and 1000 yards sounds about right after that he's numbers are only going to go down as he and Brady get older so the Question is do the pats want to pay 20 million up front and a cap hit of 7.5 to 8 million for a ageing WR when the real problem is the Defense ? as a fan i want Welker back but i dont think it would be a good business move to pay a 31 year old WR that much when there are so many holes on defense, get a running game going and Draft a solid WR that can get 60 rec for 800 yards and with gronk and hernandez i dont think the offense will miss a beat

LOL You advocate that like it's a given... The less productive this offense is the more productive this defense will have to be. And you were probably one of the legion of fans opining that there was no way Wes was going to maintain his production absent Moss...another LOL. Every player has teamates who impact their performance. Only guys like Wes and Brady get discounted for it. That's likely a big part of their bond.

 

[DaBruinz]

Mayo signed a 5 year rookie deal in 2008. He signed a 5 year extension in mid December 2012. He was essentially through 4 of his 5 rookie years. That would equate to Gronk or Hern being offered deals at the end of this coming season, their 3rd of 4...

Jonathan was asked about extending these two a few weeks back and his reply was they are only half way through their rookie deals.

And I wouldn't be surprised to see them extended during this upcoming year is what I am saying.

 

[DaBruinz]

to think that Welker is going to have a 1500 yard season next year is crazy 90 rec and 1000 yards sounds about right after that he's numbers are only going to go down as he and Brady get older so the Question is do the pats want to pay 20 million up front and a cap hit of 7.5 to 8 million for a ageing WR when the real problem is the Defense ?


as a fan i want Welker back but i dont think it would be a good business move to pay a 31 year old WR that much when there are so many holes on defense, get a running game going and Draft a solid WR that can get 60 rec for 800 yards and with gronk and hernandez i dont think the offense will miss a beat

so, let me get this straight. Welker is going to lose 25% of his production because he got a year older? That's essentially what you are saying..

Sorry, but that makes no sense at all..