Criticizing the 2015 Secondary is Overdone

[patfanken]

Fair Enough. I go with these guys, myself, most of the time:

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=129122&draftyear=2014&genpos=CB

Most Sites ~ including the one you've cited ~ are pretty sloppy about these things.

DraftScout, however, is pretty damned reliable, if I may say so.

But then: I haven't had Butler in my kitchen, standing straight up against the wall while I worked a Tape Measure and pencil like Mom used to do, so I can't claim 100% Certainty.

Well one thing is clear, that based on the numbers draft scout gave Butler it is easy to see why he was an UDFA. Watching him play last season it's also pretty clear that a lot of those speed and quickness numbers were inaccurate. Maybe the height number falls into that category.....we can always hope anyways

 

[patfanken]

I assessed our Chances in 2015 as being Transitional but In The Thick Of It.

That hardly amounts to "writing it off".

Learn to read.

And wise men always look first to The Long View ~ Long Term.

...While Fools wet themselves every single Year.

If we want to be honest, 2011 was a "transitional year" that also turned out to be a Superbowl year. If we are REALLY, really honest, so was 2001. 2006 was another "transitional" year that was only seconds away from a superbowl.

So your characterization that this could be a "transitional year" for the Pats, might be an opinion that some might disagree with, but history tells us that so called "transitional years" are often some of our best. Get in the playoffs, and I will always like our chances as long as TB is the QB and BB is the HC.

 

[patfanken]

s

I disagree with the idea of three safeties on passing downs. I would expect to see only McCourty and Harmon. McClain has been a solid nickel. If he is isn't expected to be good enough to be one of the three db's on passing downs, we should have kept Arrington, who was very good in that role.

Don't you believe that we have three corners who can play solid zone? Certainly, Fletcher and Davis should be expected to be playing zone on passing downs. McClain OR Butler should be good enough to be the third.

As the game becomes more and more wide open NOTHING we see in the secondary coverage should be considered "base" The 3rd CB (the so called "slot" CB) has become a virtual starter just as the "slot WR has on offense.'

I think as BB looks at his personnel on defense, we as fans better get used the idea that position labels are going to mean less and less this season.....and a lot harder to follow. Who is a safety, who is a CB, or even who is a LB will be harder to follow.

Think about it. This team's defense is marked by one universal concept, and that is position versatility. Almost every starter can play multiple positions. Chandler Jones best exemplifies this by being able to play 4-3 DE, 3-4 OLB, 4-3 DT. Ninko can do the same, as well as playing ILB. Easley can play 3-4 DE, 4-3 DT, 4-3 DE, Hightower can play DE, ILB, OLB, so can Collins and Mayo, etc.

So I believe that our defense this year will be highlighted by the fact that each opponent will not be able to predict where most of our defense is going to be based on what they saw in previous weeks. Most of them are going to have to figure it out on the fly, and that is a HUGE advantage to us.

That is part of the system/coaching advantage that has enabled the Pats over the years to become a team that can implement a week to week different game plans. To do that requires not only position flexibility but the development of the "language" or semantics that allows the players to end up on the same page, even though the game plan can change drastically every week.

I don't think people realize how hard this is to do, even on the professional level. Especially these days when so much of the offensive decision making is being done at the LOS by the better teams. Disguising what you are doing on defense is just so critical now days, since the rules are so slanted in the offense's favor.

OT - this is just a thought that occurred to me as I wrote the last paragraph. There is a very easy fix if the NFL wanted to even the playing field just a bit. Simply make wearing those receiving gloves illegal. Christ, at the end of my tag football playing days, even a guy like me with chronic and severe stone fingers, could be a reliable receiver wearing those things. It has always seemed so hypocritical to go nuts if a guy smokes weed or uses some HGH to help heal, yet allow receiving gloves that can drastically improve one's ability to catch the ball. But I guess that is a topic for when we do a pet peeves or rule changes thread

 

[Schmo]

The only thing I've noticed is that the constant, sarcastic, "can he rush the passer?" has been replaced with, "can he play corner?"

 

[skinnydog]

s As the game becomes more and more wide open NOTHING we see in the secondary coverage should be considered "base" The 3rd CB (the so called "slot" CB) has become a virtual starter just as the "slot WR has on offense.'

I think as BB looks at his personnel on defense, we as fans better get used the idea that position labels are going to mean less and less this season.....and a lot harder to follow. Who is a safety, who is a CB, or even who is a LB will be harder to follow.

Think about it. This team's defense is marked by one universal concept, and that is position versatility. Almost every starter can play multiple positions. Chandler Jones best exemplifies this by being able to play 4-3 DE, 3-4 OLB, 4-3 DT. Ninko can do the same, as well as playing ILB. Easley can play 3-4 DE, 4-3 DT, 4-3 DE, Hightower can play DE, ILB, OLB, so can Collins and Mayo, etc.

So I believe that our defense this year will be highlighted by the fact that each opponent will not be able to predict where most of our defense is going to be based on what they saw in previous weeks. Most of them are going to have to figure it out on the fly, and that is a HUGE advantage to us.

That is part of the system/coaching advantage that has enabled the Pats over the years to become a team that can implement a week to week different game plans. To do that requires not only position flexibility but the development of the "language" or semantics that allows the players to end up on the same page, even though the game plan can change drastically every week.

I don't think people realize how hard this is to do, even on the professional level. Especially these days when so much of the offensive decision making is being done at the LOS by the better teams. Disguising what you are doing on defense is just so critical now days, since the rules are so slanted in the offense's favor.

OT - this is just a thought that occurred to me as I wrote the last paragraph. There is a very easy fix if the NFL wanted to even the playing field just a bit. Simply make wearing those receiving gloves illegal. Christ, at the end of my tag football playing days, even a guy like me with chronic and severe stone fingers, could be a reliable receiver wearing those things. It has always seemed so hypocritical to go nuts if a guy smokes weed or uses some HGH to help heal, yet allow receiving gloves that can drastically improve one's ability to catch the ball. But I guess that is a topic for when we do a pet peeves or rule changes thread

All of this may be true, it does little to combat the jump ball offense used by a lot of playoff teams including Baltimore and Seatle. Aside from the 1st half jump ball passes to the 6'5" no name receiver the Pats basically shut down the Seahawks. So you can mix up the defense today all you want and genuinely confuse the offense, but today a deep pass to a receiver who can go up and get it or draw a flag for PI can make all of that moot.

 

[Off The Grid]

I wet myself last year. But I was truly convinced that in stating I was worried Vociferously & Tentatively, I was in fact saving the Patriots' Season.

I have often Stated, in this forum, that I am Always Wrong, particularly at any point during which I find myself Worried about the Season in Question.

And so it Came to Pass, that prior to the Cincinnati Game, I Expressed Doubts as to the viability of that year's Patriots Team, with the caveat that I am, in fact, Always Wrong.

This brings up the Question: Do you need my ring size and address, Mr. Kraft?

Hmm...

Much like the 2015 Fantasy FootBall Draft, I'm feeling very...mocked!!

 

[Off The Grid]

2015 looks like a Transition Year to me ~ which for us is probably 12-4 or 11-5 and a Divisional.

And with a Break or three....??? In any case: We should once again be In The Thick'f It.

If we want to be honest, 2011 was a "transitional year" that also turned out to be a Superbowl year. If we are REALLY, really honest, so was 2001. 2006 was another "transitional" year that was only seconds away from a superbowl.

I don't know why a couple of you are struggling to grasp my Meaning, as there was nothing abstruse about it.

I would've thought that "In The Thick'f It" was a universally understood term.

 

[mgteich]

I could see subbing for a linebacker or lineman. Who's Davis? Collins?

NICKEL/DIME PACKAGE - 5 or 6 DBs - 2 Safeties
Fletcher, Ryan, McClain (Butler could sub for one of these)
McCourty, Harmon
I don't a safety as the 5th or even 6th db on passing downs (Butler would be the 6th)

LINEBACKERS
I don't have strong feelings with regard to which two linebackers would be playing in the nickel or the dme. I am glad that we now have Dane Fletcher as a backup.

 

[mgteich]

s As the game becomes more and more wide open NOTHING we see in the secondary coverage should be considered "base" The 3rd CB (the so called "slot" CB) has become a virtual starter just as the "slot WR has on offense.'

Agreed. The nickel is played more than "base".

 

[mgteich]

Think about it. This team's defense is marked by one universal concept, and that is position versatility. Almost every starter can play multiple positions. Chandler Jones best exemplifies this by being able to play 4-3 DE, 3-4 OLB, 4-3 DT. Ninko can do the same, as well as playing ILB. Easley can play 3-4 DE, 4-3 DT, 4-3 DE, Hightower can play DE, ILB, OLB, so can Collins and Mayo, etc.

First, let me note that what you demonstrated was that LB's and DE's need to be extremely flexible since there are many, many sets, and therefore many, many roles for LB's and DE's. This is not really new. DE's were often been called to play OLB and vice versa for years. It was always a plus for an OLB to be able to play inside if needed. And yes, there are DT roles that DE's can play. But there are also big man DT roles that only the big guys plays.

I really don't see how this leads to the conclusion that safeties will come on the field before corners in the nickel or dime. I'm not even sure why we would want anyone but McCourty or Harmon playing defense on pure passing downs.

 

[n6249c]

First, let me note that what you demonstrated was that LB's and DE's need to be extremely flexible since there are many, many sets, and therefore many, many roles for LB's and DE's. This is not really new. DE's were often been called to play OLB and vice versa for years. It was always a plus for an OLB to be able to play inside if needed. And yes, there are DT roles that DE's can play. But there are also big man DT roles that only the big guys plays.

I really don't see how this leads to the conclusion that safeties will come on the field before corners in the nickel or dime. I'm not even sure why we would want anyone but McCourty or Harmon playing defense on pure passing downs.

Yep, nothing new about making the D hard to read. PatFranken's post starting this sub thread reminded me there was a time when the Pats' defense had nobody with their hand in the dirt, just eleven guys milling around not even showing which side of the line they were going to take, remember that? It was the extreme case of DEs and OLBs being indistinguishable. Add in the occasional safety blitz and it's not even clear who is in the box and who is out of the box. Except that BB is always out of the box...

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Hmm...

Much like the 2015 Fantasy FootBall Draft, I'm feeling very...mocked!!

Well, parodied, but only in style. The content was absolutely sincere, and a 100% accurate description of my worries and caveats.

 

[patfanken]

I don't know why a couple of you are struggling to grasp my Meaning, as there was nothing abstruse about it.

I would've thought that "In The Thick'f It" was a universally understood term.

Sorry it didn't come across correctly, but I was agreeing with what you are saying. My post was intended to support your post.

 

[aluminum seats]

Are folks really trying sell us on Chung as a good Safety? We'll see. He was mediocre in Philly and mediocre to poor before that here in New England. When he came back he was surrounded by Revis, Browner and McCourty and with that supporting case he looked pretty good. He still has trouble covering good tight ends down the field and is even worse against wide receivers. We'll see how he does without elite corners around him. I like McCourty, a lot. But I don't think he at the same level as say Earl Thomas. I like Butler, but he was the 5th corner in the Superbowl. Arrington and Ryan were ahead of him. Both are very limited. I think he is better that either, but I remember McCourty talking about him and how he was starting to grasp the defense so I do think he'll be good as he gains experience, but he does have size limitations against a lot of receivers out there.

Last year, the Superbowl showcased the two best secondaries and two best pairs of starting corners in the league. I don't see that as a coincidence, do you?

Comment didn't show up, weird. Just wanted to add that while Chung certainly benefited by having good players around him, he did show genuine improvement too, which I think might reasonably continue.

 

[Off The Grid]

Sorry it didn't come across correctly, but I was agreeing with what you are saying. My post was intended to support your post.

1000 Apologies, Brother Ken: The Fog of the InterNet, and all that.

 

[Sicilian]

Comment didn't show up, weird. Just wanted to add that while Chung certainly benefited by having good players around him, he did show genuine improvement too, which I think might reasonably continue.

I think the important thing to remember is just because Revis and Browner are gone (and with them the likelihood of a primarily press-man defense), doesn't mean Chung's role has to change. If Harmon can continue to develop as a second coverage safety, he can be used when that situation is required, and Chung can continue to be kept within his element. He may play fewer snaps, but I don't think he's suddenly going to have to play as an over the top safety again now.

 

[patfanken]

First, let me note that what you demonstrated was that LB's and DE's need to be extremely flexible since there are many, many sets, and therefore many, many roles for LB's and DE's. This is not really new. DE's were often been called to play OLB and vice versa for years. It was always a plus for an OLB to be able to play inside if needed. And yes, there are DT roles that DE's can play. But there are also big man DT roles that only the big guys plays.

I really don't see how this leads to the conclusion that safeties will come on the field before corners in the nickel or dime. I'm not even sure why we would want anyone but McCourty or Harmon playing defense on pure passing downs.

Actually the reason I didn't get into the secondary as far as position flexibility went was because the post was already getting long and I had made my point.....I thought.

But position flexibility extends to the secondary as well. You have to notice that for the most part most of the S's have also had a lot of college experience at CB. Maybe that's why BB has rarely gone for the big 220lb SS types that a lot of fans here constantly call for (including me a while back) and doesn't flop S's for the most part. While the LB/S hybrid is something to strive for (IMHO, I think he should come out of college as a LB, rather than drop from S into the LB position (though the Pats will do that on occasion)

But back to the point. One of McCourty's great assets is that he has proven he can cover any receiver in man when its called for. Both Chung and Wilson also have a lot of experience in college at CB. I'm not so sure if Harmon played much CB at Rutgers....but you get the point.

But the bottom line is that everyone is worried about the secondary and this much change at CB makes it a legitimate reason to be CONSERNED, but not panicked for the following reasons.

1. Until proven differently, BB has fielded successful winning teams with a LOT worse talent in the secondary

2. The issues at CB are partially off-set by the stability and talent at S

3. As well as the talent at LB and more pass rush on the DL

4. I have higher hopes for Fletcher at CB than most. Don't forget that Chung had a very similar rep coming from Philly before last year. It should also be noted that the DB coaches were fired after last season. I'm not sayi9ng he's on the same level as Talib or Revis, but in a system more suited for his talents, I expect a similar bounce back year to what Chung showed us.

To that end, I see the Pats being more conservative on the back end this year, but compensating by being more aggressive in the front 7. Easley, Hightower and Brown have the potential to give us the best inside pass rush we've had in the BB era.

I see us playing a lot of tight 4 and 5 under zones with 1,2 and 3 men deep depending on the configuration and an aggressive 5 man rush (ie, 5-4-2, 5-5-1, 4-5-2, and 4-4-3). Obviously I expect the defense to be a lot more complex than this simple supposition, but I do expect more 5 man rushes this year than in previous ones, simply based on the talent available.

Lots of question marks for this team, perhaps more than we'd like to see. It also doesn't help that the division might be one of the strongest in the league this year, with all our division rivals adding some very significant big names over the off season. Its only a matter of time before Revis is quoted as saying, he sees more talent in the Jets camp this year than he saw with the Pats.

I suspect there will be a lot fewer blowouts this year, but that's OK. I'm comfortable with the gains the division has made. It will mean a lot more close games. But the fact is that the Pats have been very. VERY good at winning close games. And we all know that winning close games isn't always about talent on paper. It's about focus, discipline, and execution, something the Pats have been very good at for a very long time

 

[letekro]

Alas, on that we can not agree.

I'm crazy about Malcolm Butler. We're all crazy about Malcolm Butler.

He goes right up there at the very top with all the Boston Clutch & Big Game Legends:

Babe Ruth
Larry Bird
Tom Brady
Bobby Orr
Curt Schilling
Bill Russell
Adam Vinatieri
Dave Henderson
Bob Cousy
Ty Law
Luis Tiant
John Halvicek
Rodney Harrison
Cy Young
Tommy Bond
Kid Nichols

Et Cetera...

But he's what I call a CenterFielder ~ a Slot Corner/CenterFielder Hybrid. And he's potentially an exceptional one, but at 5096/187, he's no starting CornerBack, much less an average or good one.

It Is What It Is.

Agreed. I think Butler can be a middling outside CB, but an elite slot CB. Ideally, that's where he spends most of his time. Ryan/Fletcher can be adequate at one outside spot, and hopefully they trade for a guy later on in the year that is better than Ryan/Fletcher to man the other outside spot. Roberts could be the wild card, but we certainly can't count on him yet, certainly not as a starter.

 

[PatsBoy12]

I'm not going to criticize something that I can't measure, but after the huge shakeup of not being able to sign Revis I feel the secondary is questionable at this point and would be lying if I said I wasn't concerned about it.

Your statement falls in line with my thinking. There is no way for anyone to know how good or bad the secondary will be until they're tested for real. Nonetheless, the names do not inspire much confidence at this point, which is why a thread like this even exists. I think leaning too far to either side of the argument is silly. Those saying trust Bill are correct. Those saying they're a bit concerned are correct as well. I think it's best to just see what pans out and what does not once training camp really gets going and hope that we go into the season with a competent group. I'm certainly not expecting them to perform to the caliber of last year's unit.

 

[mgteich]

Actually the reason I didn't get into the secondary as far as position flexibility went was because the post was already getting long and I had made my point.....I thought.

But position flexibility extends to the secondary as well. You have to notice that for the most part most of the S's have also had a lot of college experience at CB. Maybe that's why BB has rarely gone for the big 220lb SS types that a lot of fans here constantly call for (including me a while back) and doesn't flop S's for the most part. While the LB/S hybrid is something to strive for (IMHO, I think he should come out of college as a LB, rather than drop from S into the LB position (though the Pats will do that on occasion)

But back to the point. One of McCourty's great assets is that he has proven he can cover any receiver in man when its called for. Both Chung and Wilson also have a lot of experience in college at CB. I'm not so sure if Harmon played much CB at Rutgers....but you get the point.

But the bottom line is that everyone is worried about the secondary and this much change at CB makes it a legitimate reason to be CONSERNED, but not panicked for the following reasons.

1. Until proven differently, BB has fielded successful winning teams with a LOT worse talent in the secondary

2. The issues at CB are partially off-set by the stability and talent at S

3. As well as the talent at LB and more pass rush on the DL

4. I have higher hopes for Fletcher at CB than most. Don't forget that Chung had a very similar rep coming from Philly before last year. It should also be noted that the DB coaches were fired after last season. I'm not sayi9ng he's on the same level as Talib or Revis, but in a system more suited for his talents, I expect a similar bounce back year to what Chung showed us.

To that end, I see the Pats being more conservative on the back end this year, but compensating by being more aggressive in the front 7. Easley, Hightower and Brown have the potential to give us the best inside pass rush we've had in the BB era.

I see us playing a lot of tight 4 and 5 under zones with 1,2 and 3 men deep depending on the configuration and an aggressive 5 man rush (ie, 5-4-2, 5-5-1, 4-5-2, and 4-4-3). Obviously I expect the defense to be a lot more complex than this simple supposition, but I do expect more 5 man rushes this year than in previous ones, simply based on the talent available.

Lots of question marks for this team, perhaps more than we'd like to see. It also doesn't help that the division might be one of the strongest in the league this year, with all our division rivals adding some very significant big names over the off season. Its only a matter of time before Revis is quoted as saying, he sees more talent in the Jets camp this year than he saw with the Pats.

I suspect there will be a lot fewer blowouts this year, but that's OK. I'm comfortable with the gains the division has made. It will mean a lot more close games. But the fact is that the Pats have been very. VERY good at winning close games. And we all know that winning close games isn't always about talent on paper. It's about focus, discipline, and execution, something the Pats have been very good at for a very long time

I agree with almost all that you posted.

Let us deal withe the subject that we were focusing on: the quality of the corners, especially in passing situations. I believe that you contention was that we would see 3 safeties rather than 3 corners. I strongly disagreed.

Fletcher, Ryan and McClain are solid zone corners. Most here think that Butler is OK, at minimum as the 6th DB, the dime.

With regard to safety, clearly McCourty is top quality. You point to Chung and Wilson in passing situations because of they played corner in college. I find this to be curious. Chung is often replaced by Harmon in passing situations. I think that Wilson is good enough to make the team, but he is our #6 safety, and I don't think that he will be counted on for a major number of reps without two injuries.

BOTTOM LINE
1) We have weaknesses at the corner positions compared to last year (all three IMHO). McCourty was here last year. He does not compensate for the losses.

2) I don't accept that now that we have no quality corners, that Chung and Wilson will make up for that deficiency. I'd much rather take the position that the corners are Belichick's choices, and that (in the new schemes), Fletcher, Ryan and McClain will be an adequate set of corners. Yes, and perhaps Butler will be good enough to start in certain games, and/or perform the occasional great play off the bench as he did last year.

3) So, we agree that the sky is not falling. I just choose not to hope that Chung and Wilson will be our saviors in passing situations.