Contracts to deal with

[mgteich]

The current cap situation is misleading if we understand that Revis will not have a cap hit more than $15M. This means that at least $10M of cap money will free up before the start of the season.

 

[Fencer]

Yes, but is he worth almost 4 million a year?

I believe the new-money figure for Arrington next season is $3 million.

 

[mgteich]

I believe the new-money figure for Arrington next season is $3 million.

It is. The question before house is whether Arrington is worth $3M. I think that he clearly is. The question before us is also whether Browner is worth $4.8M. Again, I believe that he is.

Ryan and Butler are playing for about $600K each. Dennard about $1.5M

The total for the above five corners is $10.5M, an amazing bargain, given how well they have played.
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IMHO, the only real question at CB is whether Belichick can re-sign Revis.

 

[Fencer]

Jerry Jones has said he expects the cap to be at 146m.

Per Miguel's page that Pats are a little over that right now. That's without:

• Accounting for rookies, mid-season pickups, etc.
• Paying anybody who's becoming a FA now.
• Reducing anybody's cap hit.

The main candidates for reduced hits are:

• Revis, obviously -- in the $10 million range of savings if he stays.
• Mayo -- a few million if he stays?
• Amendola -- $4.5 million if he's simply cut.
• Arrington -- $3 million if he's simply cut.
• Brady, but they've gone to that well recently.
• Wilfork, but they've gone to that well recently.
• Solder -- a couple million if he gets a long-term deal, or $7.438 million if he's cut.
• Various minor players at mid-six-figures each.

(Of course, guys I'm suggesting be "cut" might actually have a little trade value.)

I fear that some good and needed players will wind up moving on.

Next year, by the way, it's Jones' and Hightower's turn to get paid.

 

[Fencer]

http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=1357?sc=rss

Miguel has projections. I think his view of Connolly's value is too low, however.

 

[mgteich]

Per Miguel's page that Pats are a little over that right now. That's without:

• Accounting for rookies, mid-season pickups, etc.
• Paying anybody who's becoming a FA now.
• Reducing anybody's cap hit.

The main candidates for reduced hits are:

• Revis, obviously -- in the $10 million range of savings if he stays.
• Mayo -- a few million if he stays?
• Amendola -- $4.5 million if he's simply cut.
• Arrington -- $3 million if he's simply cut.
• Brady, but they've gone to that well recently.
• Wilfork, but they've gone to that well recently.
• Solder -- a couple million if he gets a long-term deal, or $7.438 million if he's cut.
• Various minor players at mid-six-figures each.

(Of course, guys I'm suggesting be "cut" might actually have a little trade value.)

I fear that some good and needed players will wind up moving on.

Next year, by the way, it's Jones' and Hightower's turn to get paid.

 

[mgteich]

I would add a Gronk restructure to the list. We are discussing a lot money, $30M. Obviously, the total would be more if players were cut or if their compensation was reduced.

RESTRUCTURES - $30M (with no change in compensation except for Amendola)
Revis - $12M
Brady - $4M
Gronk - $3M
Mayo - $3M
Wilfork - $3M
Solder - $2M
Amendola - $2M
Arrington - $1M

I don't show the large money because I think that we should sign lots of free agents. I would be fine with zero additions, other than replacements for our own players that are not re-signed.

 

[Brady6]

Who is our semi-proven replacement? Neither White nor Bolden has shown much in Vereen's role. Has either done anything to suggest to you that they would be a reasonable replacement for Vereen?

I would caution you on concluding what a player is; you could be confusing opportunity and ability.

Shane Vereen as rookie – 5 games, 15 carries, 57 yards, 3.8 average, 0 catches, 0 receiving yards.
James White as a rookie – 3 games, 9 carries, 38 yards, 4.2 average, 3 catches, 23 receiving yards.

See many conclusions on Aaron Dobson as well, if you remember there was a player who had a good rookie season as a receiver and then fell off the map in season 2 not too long ago. That receiver was Julien Edelman.

My dilemma is Vince Wilfork, last season I was a big advocate of bringing him back, this season I am not sure if I can continue to advocate for that. The cap hit is just so big and for a player who is limited in what he brings to the game. Siliga was actually the 2nd best DT in terms of run stopping in the NFL last season and we are looking at paying him $660K. I am not sure what to do with Wilfork, I love the big fella I just wish he would take a team friendly deal.

 

[Fencer]

I would add a Gronk restructure to the list. We are discussing a lot money, $30M. Obviously, the total would be more if players were cut or if their compensation was reduced.

RESTRUCTURES - $30M (with no change in compensation except for Amendola)
Revis - $12M
Brady - $4M
Gronk - $3M
Mayo - $3M
Wilfork - $3M
Solder - $2M
Amendola - $2M
Arrington - $1M

I don't show the large money because I think that we should sign lots of free agents. I would be fine with zero additions, other than replacements for our own players that are not re-signed.

You tend to be an extremist about pushing cap hits into future seasons. The team generally doesn't go to those extremes.

 

[mgteich]

You tend to be an extremist about pushing cap hits into future seasons. The team generally doesn't go to those extremes.

I do go to extremes to point out what is available if needed, in this year's case about $30M. There are large difference between my numbers and others because some poster have relatively flat salaries.

For example, folks want to pay Revis $7M a year in salary plus a $24M bonus check. That is $15M AAV, and there would be negotiations of guarantees in addition to the bonus. So, these folks would be paying Revis $31M in 2015. My approach would be salaries of $1M, $11M and $12M, which would give Revis ONLY $22M cash this year. My approach levelizes the cash better, and saves $3M on the 2015 cap compared with the levelized salary approach.

You say that the patriots don't go to these extremes. Perhaps not. However, most contracts included bonuses which move much of the cap hit to the future. Also, almost every top player restructures a couple of times, converting salary to bonus, and moving cap money to later years.

So, I agree that we won't restructure $30M of 2015 cap money into the future. Belichick will also probably reduce compensation to more players than I would. There are always a couple of surprises.
============
We will have lots of answers in 5 weeks.

 

[Fencer]

I do go to extremes to point out what is available if needed, in this year's case about $30M. There are large difference between my numbers and others because some poster have relatively flat salaries.

For example, folks want to pay Revis $7M a year in salary plus a $24M bonus check. That is $15M AAV, and there would be negotiations of guarantees in addition to the bonus. So, these folks would be paying Revis $31M in 2015. My approach would be salaries of $1M, $11M and $12M, which would give Revis ONLY $22M cash this year. My approach levelizes the cash better, and saves $3M on the 2015 cap compared with the levelized salary approach.

Right. But then how do you pay for the team the subsequent season -- restructure Revis from $11 million back down to $1 million?

 

[mgteich]

Right. But then how do you pay for the team the subsequent season -- restructure Revis from $11 million back down to $1 million?

===================
Your goal seems to be even caps for Revis each year. That would be approximately achieved with a $4M salary.

OLD BONUS - $5M
NEW BONUS - $21M
SALARIES: $4M, $10M, $10M

2015 CAP $5M + $7M + $4M = $16M
2016 CAP $7M +$10M = $17M
2017 CAP $7M + $10M = $17M
TOTAL is $45M of new money over 3 years.

BOTTOM LINE
I would push another $3M from 2015 into the next 2 years, giving him salaries of $1M, $11M, and $12M.
I don't think that either approach is radical. My caps are $13M, $18M and $19m.

 

[Fencer]

===================
Your goal seems to be even caps for Revis each year. That would be approximately achieved with a $4M salary.

OLD BONUS - $5M
NEW BONUS - $21M
SALARIES: $4M, $10M, $10M

2015 CAP $5M + $7M + $4M = $16M
2016 CAP $7M +$10M = $17M
2017 CAP $7M + $10M = $17M
TOTAL is $45M of new money over 3 years.

BOTTOM LINE
I would push another $3M from 2015 into the next 2 years, giving him salaries of $1M, $11M, and $12M.
I don't think that either approach is radical. My caps are $13M, $18M and $19m.

Is that how the cap works? I thought that once there's an extension what remains of the old bonus gets spread out over the new life of the contract.

 

[mgteich]

Is that how the cap works? I thought that once there's an extension what remains of the old bonus gets spread out over the new life of the contract.

Miguel can verify or correct.

 

[Miguel]

Is that how the cap works? I thought that once there's an extension what remains of the old bonus gets spread out over the new life of the contract.

That's not correct. extensions do not affect current signing bonus prorations

 

[BobDigital]

I'm sorry that my post was so long you couldn't stand to read to the end.

You misunderstood my post. I meant to say you left out some possible restructures/extensions I think will happen like Solder/Dennard/Wilson that could save money. Was not implying you had no restructures cause obviously you had a lot.

 

[Patriots1364life]

I hope dennard bounces back.I really liked him as a corner on the outside pressing the opposing wr..

 

[patsfanincleveland]

I like the thought of trading Arrington, and bringing in Antonio Chromortie.

Sign revis to a 3 year deal, and draft two physically talented CB with high upside.
Players like Josh Shaw, and Nick marshall. Let the two sit behind Revis, Browner, and Chromortie for 32-3 years, then unleash them.

Why would you do that? Cromartie is a lesser Browner

This thread has some seriously curious ideas of what a secondary should look like.

Arrington and Browner have considerably different benefits that make the secondary greater than the whole.

Seattle lucked out greatly because there was zero film on Matthews. It was problem that got corrected.

"He's just a slot CB......" comment is one of the most perplexing in football. Good slot receivers are one of the rages in the NFL. Anybody care to gather what the NFC East would do to have somebody who can cover Victor Cruz or the long haired slot guy in Dallas?

Every elite offense by definition will have a great slot guy.

 

[meatface]

Ill give this a shot:

Here are the areas that I think are replaceable or can be upgraded..
Arrington - I like the guy, but we have Butler/Dennard in the wings and I believe his # is pretty high
Amendola - Sorry, I like the guy but I think from a 'value' perspective his cap # is too high for his contribution - possible restructure candidate
Branch - Keep Siligia, Easley instead
Ridley - Although maybe he stays on a cheap deal - he absolutely destroyed his knee...
Gostkowski - he's been fantastic... but is he worth 3-4 million?
Chris White / Casillas - cheaper options out there?
Boyce - I've seen enough
Dobson - I could see him get cut..


Restructure:
May0 - Hopefully we can get him restructure to free up some cap space for Revis... No way he leaves the team.. lots of reports surfacing that he was a big part of the team even while injured.
Wilfork - Dare I?

Re-sign:
Revis - Duh
McCourty - No way he leaves.. hometown discount?
Ayers: He will be cheap
Shane Vereen - unsung hero of superbowl IMO
Tyms - I actually think he is the only one of these guys that adds something different to the mix

Arrington has one bad game and everybody wants to throw him into the sun. Amendola will depend entirely on if they value their potential small savings more than they value having him on the team and I think he proved this postseason and in the Kicking game that he has some value, hopefully the pats can restructure his deal to save some money. Ayers probably wont be as cheap as people are thinking so likely no.

 

[Fencer]

Arrington has one bad game

More than that. He was benched for non-performance multiple times over the season, it seemed. Of course, we don't know how much of that was injury.