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I'm sure that comparable things have appeared elsewhere (so if you feel you've got the Playoff possibilities nailed, just ignore this thread), but Gasper's piece in today's Globe is the clearest and best written explanation of the Pat's Playoff dilemma that I have read (link below).
Bottom line for me? Besides "taking care of business" over our next three games, we have to win the Division, as I know others have observed. For that to happen, the Jets have to implode against the Niners or Seahawks and then beat the Dolphins for "pride" and to stick it to Chad in the final game. It is, however, possible that at that point they would have completely fallen apart and would rather die than put the Pats in the Playoffs, even if that means letting Chad beat them in the Meadowlands. I don't see the Dolphins losing to the 49ers or Chiefs with Bill Parcells walking the halls.
The Ravens might lose to the Steelers, but the likelihood of their also losing to the Cowboys who threw up in Pittsburgh on Sunday or to this year's Jaguars in a meaningful game is slim, not impossible, but slim. The likelihood of the Colts losing two of their three remaining games (against the Lions, Jags and Titans) is similarly slim.
For Patriots, winning isn't everything - The Boston Globe
Bottom line for me? Besides "taking care of business" over our next three games, we have to win the Division, as I know others have observed. For that to happen, the Jets have to implode against the Niners or Seahawks and then beat the Dolphins for "pride" and to stick it to Chad in the final game. It is, however, possible that at that point they would have completely fallen apart and would rather die than put the Pats in the Playoffs, even if that means letting Chad beat them in the Meadowlands. I don't see the Dolphins losing to the 49ers or Chiefs with Bill Parcells walking the halls.
The Ravens might lose to the Steelers, but the likelihood of their also losing to the Cowboys who threw up in Pittsburgh on Sunday or to this year's Jaguars in a meaningful game is slim, not impossible, but slim. The likelihood of the Colts losing two of their three remaining games (against the Lions, Jags and Titans) is similarly slim.
For Patriots, winning isn't everything - The Boston Globe