Cap# for 2024: $255.4 million (!)

[Ivan]

They can't manufacture players, and the consensus is that there isn't a single good FA OT out there worthy of a major contract. The only one on the list that's worth signing is our own guy.

The WR that will be available are aging and thus probably won't be around when they have finished the rebuild and are ready to compete for championships.

Lots of "excuses."

So you build around those deficits. They can get good solid OL in the middle of the free agent group, re sign defenders and add defensive free agents, and then rebuild the offense through the draft and cap casualties. I also think that making a run at Tyron Smith for a 2 year deal could make some sense. Then draft an OT with their 2nd pick and start them out on the right side. They could move up for Guyton, who played a blindside RT at Oklahoma, and then either move him, or use a top pick next year to get their LT. But regardless of individual moves they need to understand how to maximize free agency/ spending, cap casualties, and the Draft to start building them into a yearly contender.

 

[venecol]

Tiebreaker needed here.

It's directly proportional to salary cap of the league year. If cap goes up more than expected, then franchise tag also goes up. That's why Duggers tag was projected to be 16.6 is now 17.1 and so on.




Good article here from Joel Corry on it.

Agent's Take: 2024 franchise tag projections and 10 potential candidates who could get designated

These talented players might not be going anywhere this offseason

www.cbssports.com

 

[javajunky]

I think Parker isn't worth keeping in the way of young players. I think Bourne is a better player than Parker. Bourne is what I call a Catalyst type player. When Bourne is on the field. Things happen. Either directly or indirectly. We saw this particularly late in his first year here. His second was marred by the fact that Patricia was a jackass, over-promising, under-delivering and not relying on the players who actually had played in the system they were trying to draw from. Bourne was our best WR last season before going down. The pace he was on, he'd have had over 100 targets. And probably would have been close to 1000 yards. DESPITE how bad the offense was.

If they re-sign Bourne, even on a prove-it deal, His attitude and energy will be a benefit to the team.
I think if you add MHJ in the draft to go with Douglas, Thornton and Bourne, you harm the development of MHJ, Douglas and Thornton by keeping a Parker or JJSS around. Bourne IS someone who then can easily come off the bench to spell either of those three provided he's healthy. JJSS could do it if healthy, but I don't think he's going to be, all things considered. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he's gone with some kind of insurance settlement because of the injury from the Chiefs.

After the JJSS fiasco, teams won't sign Bourne to more than the minimum until he shows he is fully healed. I'm afraid his time has passed for him to be a long-term answer at WR.

 

[venecol]

This is easily the most interesting offseason to me in years and years. I’m looking forward to seeing all of the decisions they have to make in free agency and the draft, and the construction of their new offense.

Agree. The biggest thing is that everything we were used to from drafting trade strategies and player grade evaluations are out the window. There is no Patriots player profile as we knew it.

I wonder how @BaconGrundleCandy will take this into account, as he looked at Pats player profiles in his analysis.

 

[Ivan]

Agree. The biggest thing is that everything we were used to from drafting trade strategies and player grade evaluations are out the window. There is no Patriots player profile as we knew it.

I wonder how @BaconGrundleCandy will take this into account, as he looked at Pats player profiles in his analysis.

I asked him about this and he didn’t think it would affect his evaluations, which makes sense, as you are still evaluating the players the same way, you are just not looking to fit players into a specific team model. I’m sure that he could look at the system Van Pelt and the other Modified WC offenses prefer and apply a model to that as well. And that will gain more clarity over the ensuing drafts.

 

[venecol]

So you build around those deficits. They can get good solid OL in the middle of the free agent group, re sign defenders and add defensive free agents, and then rebuild the offense through the draft and cap casualties. I also think that making a run at Tyron Smith for a 2 year deal could make some sense. Then draft an OT with their 2nd pick and start them out on the right side. They could move up for Guyton, who played a blindside RT at Oklahoma, and then either move him, or use a top pick next year to get their LT. But regardless of individual moves they need to understand how to maximize free agency/ spending, cap casualties, and the Draft to start building them into a yearly contender.

Agree on this. There's not only Smith at LT but Eluemunor at RT (swing T) that could serve as bridge guys while we draft their replacements. We can probably get them both for under the $21M tag for Onwenu. Then draft Guyton by moving up as you said.

I'm not against signing great defensive players in FAcy but looking at our current cap spending, the offense is woefully under spent (O is 56% of the D cap).

 

[venecol]

I asked him about this and he didn’t think it would affect his evaluations, which makes sense, as you are still evaluating the players the same way, you are just not looking to fit players into a specific team model. I’m sure that he could look at the system Van Pelt and the other Modified WC offenses prefer and apply a model to that as well. And that will gain more clarity over the ensuing drafts.

Yea probably, but I remember his tables having a typical Pats player fit thing, but more as a note than anything else.

 

[Ivan]

Yea probably, but I remember his tables having a typical Pats player fit thing, but more as a note than anything else.

Yep, he always had his Patriots Type Player list, but I’m sure the evaluations were done first, and slotting them into that category later.

 

[Ivan]

Agree on this. There's not only Smith at LT but Eluemunor at RT (swing T) that could serve as bridge guys while we draft their replacements. We can probably get them both for under the $21M tag for Onwenu. Then draft Guyton by moving up as you said.

I'm not against signing great defensive players in FAcy but looking at our current cap spending, the offense is woefully under spent (O is 56% of the D cap).

View attachment 56707

Smith only cost the Cowboys 6 million last year.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Agree on this. There's not only Smith at LT but Eluemunor at RT (swing T) that could serve as bridge guys while we draft their replacements. We can probably get them both for under the $21M tag for Onwenu. Then draft Guyton by moving up as you said.

FWIW, I don't think the Pats would tag Onwenu with the expectation he'd play under the tag, but as a way to keep him from getting poached while they work out a long-term deal.

 

[venecol]

FWIW, I don't think the Pats would tag Onwenu with the expectation he'd play under the tag, but as a way to keep him from getting poached while they work out a long-term deal.

I don't think they'll be able to agree, especially now that the cap went up another 30M. If he wants to stay for 56/4 then fine. Even at 15 apy would be ok. He's probably looking for 18-20 apy.

 

[BTTA]

So you build around those deficits. They can get good solid OL in the middle of the free agent group, re sign defenders and add defensive free agents, and then rebuild the offense through the draft and cap casualties. I also think that making a run at Tyron Smith for a 2 year deal could make some sense. Then draft an OT with their 2nd pick and start them out on the right side. They could move up for Guyton, who played a blindside RT at Oklahoma, and then either move him, or use a top pick next year to get their LT. But regardless of individual moves they need to understand how to maximize free agency/ spending, cap casualties, and the Draft to start building them into a yearly contender.

Yes, that's pretty much what I was saying, as opposed to what the poster said which was they should solve the OT and WR problem with big contracts.

So, which OT would you go after as a middling solution? Here's one ranked list from the internets:

1) Mike Onwenu
2) Jonah Williams
3) Tyron Smith
4) Mehki Becton
5) Trent Brown
6) Donovan Smith
7) Yosh Nijman
8) George Fant
9) Jermaine Eluemunor
10) Josh Jones

 

[Ivan]

Yes, that's pretty much what I was saying, as opposed to what the poster said which was they should solve the OT and WR problem with big contracts.

So, which OT would you go after as a middling solution? Here's one ranked list from the internets:

1) Mike Onwenu
2) Jonah Williams
3) Tyron Smith
4) Mehki Becton
5) Trent Brown
6) Donovan Smith
7) Yosh Nijman
8) George Fant
9) Jermaine Eluemunor
10) Josh Jones

I would try to sign Tyron Smith to a 2year deal, draft an OT in the second round, and sign Josh Jones.

 

[Ivan]

Yes, that's pretty much what I was saying, as opposed to what the poster said which was they should solve the OT and WR problem with big contracts.

So, which OT would you go after as a middling solution? Here's one ranked list from the internets:

1) Mike Onwenu
2) Jonah Williams
3) Tyron Smith
4) Mehki Becton
5) Trent Brown
6) Donovan Smith
7) Yosh Nijman
8) George Fant
9) Jermaine Eluemunor
10) Josh Jones

I wouldn’t pay Onwenu 20 million, I don’t think he’s elite, and I have heard rumblings that he doesn’t fit the blocking scheme Van Pelt runs.

 

[venecol]

Yes, that's pretty much what I was saying, as opposed to what the poster said which was they should solve the OT and WR problem with big contracts.

So, which OT would you go after as a middling solution? Here's one ranked list from the internets:

1) Mike Onwenu
2) Jonah Williams
3) Tyron Smith
4) Mehki Becton
5) Trent Brown
6) Donovan Smith
7) Yosh Nijman
8) George Fant
9) Jermaine Eluemunor
10) Josh Jones

This is PFF's list w/ grade, (age) #rank

1) Tyron Smith 83.7 (33) #14
2) Trent Brown 80.2 (31) #22
3) Mike Onwenu 71.5 (26) #25
4) Mehki Becton 53.2 (25) #47
5) Jonah Williams 58.5 (26) #54
6) Jermaine Eluemunor 68.5 (29) #61
7) Josh Jones 49.6 (27) #114
8) Donovan Smith 57.8 (31) #117
9) George Fant 61.7 (32) #124
10) Cam Fleming 59.4 (31) #143

I would sign Smith (LT), Eluemunor (RT-swing), and draft 2 tackles.

What I would really like to see is AvP/Mayo convincing Trent to re-sign for 2 years.

 

[Uptown]

 

[Uptown]

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[XLIX]

No, no, please NFL - do not change the rules and allow the trading of cap space to happen.

You can do it indirectly if there is an overpaid player one team wants to get rid of, like Cleveland and Houston did about 5 years ago. I don't remember the specifics but Houston traded something like Brock Osweiler plus a second rounder for a 4th rounder.

Houston traded down 2 rounds to get Cleveland to take on the bad contract.

 

[Big Bucks]

No, no, please NFL - do not change the rules and allow the trading of cap space to happen.

If teams are allowed to trade cap space, then the salary cap would become meaningless. The NFL would turn into major league baseball in terms of disparity between team's spending. We would end up with an equivalent of the Yankees and Dodgers outspending other teams like the Rays and A's by a factor of 2x, 3x, 4x.

A level playing field is what has made the NFL the nation's most popular sport, going back to when Pete Rozelle convinced big market team owners - Wellington Mara (New York), Dan Reeves (Los Angeles), George Halas (Chicago) - to split television revues equally between all teams. Rozelle sold them on the idea that the NFL product would be more appealing to fans with all teams on equal footing, and as a result they would benefit in the long run. Rozelle was right.

Being allowed to trade cap space will result in a major competitive disparity. Certain owners like Jerry Jones will do everything possible to buy a championship. Smaller market team owners will not even try to be competitive, instead being happy with pocketing the financial windfall from television contrats. That is not a scenario any NFL fan should want to see.

Interesting take as I see it helping small market teams than the deal they get under the current system…also it would never get to Baseball levels of uneven spending… I put in a gradual $$$ number for each pick for the first round… 30m isn't going to improve a team like Dallas to a team of all-stars. The best free agents are going to the Dallas's of this world anyway… how many go to small market teams. The NFL could easily set a sliding scale of value for picks. If a team has big $$$ cap ability, if they are small market, all they do is overpay for mediocre players to go there and becomes a repeated cycle… they got no chance. But this way they can get better through the draft with more better picks. They could also just make it 1st rounders only tradable for cap.

The only downside I see is front loading contracts.You can sell your top 10 pick to pay your QB

 

[DaBruinz]

I would try to sign Tyron Smith to a 2year deal, draft an OT in the second round, and sign Josh Jones.

Why do you want to bring in the Injury brigade? Didn't the fact that Reiff and Anderson couldn't stay healthy plague us enough last year?

Tyron Smith hasn't played a full season in 8 years.
Josh Jones has missed parts of 2 seasons while only starting for 1 and only seeing 20% of the snaps despite dressing for 13 games last year.

Wouldn't drafting a LT in the 2nd round and a Swing in the 3rd round be more prudent? Maybe take a look at Okorafor who wouldn't actually cost the Pats in the Comp formula?