I've been a proponent of trading for Justin Fields so I will give my justification.
Firstly, I don't think Justin Fields is a franchise QB. Having said that, I don't feel like any of the players that will realistically be available are franchise QB's. My interest in a Justin Fields trade is simply after evaluating all of the likely QB's that will be available, I think he is the best combination of talent, upside, value and allocation of resources. I was going to do a deep evaluation into each of these options but I will try and keep it as short as I can.
The Free Agent QB class is obviously very weak. I don't think we are in the Kirk Cousins market and as much as I would really like Baker Mayfield, I just don't see TB letting him go. Beyond that you have a bunch of veteran backups that don't bring a lot of optimism. Is anyone excited by the prospect of Ryan Tannehill or Jacoby Brissett? I would sign one of these guys as depth but they certainly wouldn't preclude me from going after Fields.
On to the draft and I think there are two QB's worthy of a top 5 pick. Caleb Williams is the #1 QB in the draft and the only reason Fields is available in the first place. I don't love Drake Maye but I can see the tools there and I think he would be a good fit for the scheme the Pats will likely try and run. If either guy were available at 3 I would take them but I think they are going 1/2. Would I trade up for either of them? No. Simply because the cost required to trade up would prohibit us from putting the talent around them to succeed. I think a huge part of QB failure, especially for high draft picks, is teams not having the talent or stability around the young QB. Unfortunately I don't think there is a team in the NFL currently set up worse to develop a young QB that the Patriots. Losing addition resources (because the cost to trade up would be substantial) would really make it different to surround either of these guys with talent.
The most contentious player is Jayden Daniels. I won't get too deep into it but I just don't believe in him with a top 5 pick. I question his ability to read through his progressions and play out of the pocket in the NFL. We also haven't seen him have to throw into NFL windows because his WR's were always wide open. We have seen with Mac Jones how much having an ultra talented WR group in college can make you look good. I'm also really worried about his frame and his ability to hold up with the physicality in the NFL. If we were taking a shot at him in the late 1st round to develop I would be really intrigued by his tools. In the top 3 of a draft that is loaded at WR and OL, that is just too rich for my blood.
Beyond the top 3 there are 3 other fringe 1st round QB's, none of which I would take that high. Bo Nix and JJ McCarthy are game managers that need a lot of talent around them. They could both eventually be NFL QB's, I just don't see the Pats being suited for that type of QB with the current lack of talent. Likely requiring a trade up into the late 1st round I just don't see the value there. Bo Nix reminds me of Brock Purdy, unfortunately we don't have the talent of the 49ers.
Michael Penix Jr is the most intruiging guy to me, but that depends on where he lands in the draft. With a lot of medical red flags and a shaky senior bowl, I think Penix is a candidate to drop in the draft. Every year we see a QB get drafted way later than expected, I think Penix could be the guy this year. The thing that makes Penix most intruiging to me is watching Joe Flacco on the Browns last season. If that is the kind of system AVP wants to use, heavy run and throw the ball vertically off play action, I think Penix would be a good fit. He has an excellent deep ball and good control of the offense pre-snap. I worry about his fit in other schemes though and the medical is a concern. If he fell to the 3rd I'd be interested.
Beyond that there isn't anybody worth mentioning because they wouldn't have any bearing on Fields or any of these top QB's if they were drafted. They would simply be a hedge as a double dip pick.
So we finally get to Justin Fields. He hasn't lived up to the hype as a 1st round pick on a terrible Bears team, but looking at guys like Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith give me hope he can be salvaged in a new environment. He obviously has excellent athleticism and is a threat with his legs, but I think he still has untapped potential throwing the ball. He has a good but not elite NFL arm. He can't sling it like Josh Allen but he can make all the throws and is certainly an upgrade from Mac Jones. He already has 3 years experience in the NFL and is still only 24 years old. Only 1 year older than guys like Jayden Daniels, Michael Penix and Bo Nix. So there is still upside and room to grow there. I think his ceiling is similar to Jayden Daniels (maybe a bit lower) but his floor is much higher.
He is still under contract for 2 years. 2024 he is dirt cheap and 2025 he is reasonable for a starting NFL QB. One of the things I like the most about trading for Fields is it allows us to keep most of our draft capital to build an offense around him. Fields wont require pick 3 or 34. I would try and trade a 2025 pick, maybe even a conditional pick ranging from rounds 2-4 depending on performance. This would allow us to trade back from 3, gather assets and target 2 OT's and 2 WR's early in the draft to build an offense.
Would the Bears do this trade? One benefit for the Bears taking a 2025 pick is it might make them a little bit more comfortable trading forward future picks to move up in this draft. For example, maybe they want to move up from 9 to draft a generational WR to pair with Caleb Williams? Having potentially an extra 2nd round in 2025 could make them more comfortable trading their 2025 1st in a trade up.
I know Fields isn't everyone's cup of tea and you might evaluate one or many of the QB's differently to me. I just don't feel good about any of the potential options we are looking at in the draft and free agency and I think Fields might be the best of a bad bunch.
