Bring on the Ravens

[mgcolby]

I think there are a few things going on. I watch a lot of Ravens games, I'm a huge fan. So I'm biased too, keep that in mind. But ...

(1) Flacco's #1 job is not to turn the ball over. With that in mind, the Ravens don't run a lot of over the middle routes, especially in games where they are ahead. I mean consider the Houston game - you see a lot of routes where Flacco is expected to throw the ball where the defender can't possibly get it. Low percentage move, maybe, but we've got a good punter and defense.

(2) A *lot* of the passes are downfield. A lot. Not many intermediate routes, relatively speaking. Naturally those are fairly low-percentage.

(3) Torrey is a rookie, Evans was new to the team and got hurt. A lot of learning curve this year. Getting better.

(4) Drops. Way too many.

All of the above is true to an extent, but I'll be the first to admit that excuses usually have a ring of truth to them. Flacco is both the guy who drove us down for the game-winning TD in Pittsburgh and the guy who holds the ball too long and gets strip sacked. He can make any throw in the game but his decisions are sometimes puzzling. It is what it is.

Point 1 is understood. But if you have a really good QB that doesn't happen IMO.

Thanks you are right that a lot of the throws are deep. But is that not on Flacco? The TE's are not running 35 yards downfield looking for bombs. I will have to go back and rewatch the Texans game and look for that.

Torrey is explosive. I forgot Evans was hurt, I shouldn't have included him.

You are about average in drops 14th in the league.

I completely agree with your last paragraph.

 

[Ron Sellers]

You dont see why a talented, if inconsistent player, could have a better day going against your defense than Brady going against ours?

You either underestimate Flacco or our defense, or overrate Brady.

Possible? Yes, of course.

Likely? No; I definitely consider there to be a greater likelihood that Brady will have a better day than Flacco in comparison to the likelihood of Flacco having a better day then Brady.

I don't believe that I am underestimating Flacco, underestimating the Ravens defense, or overrating Brady. I'm just considering what the most likely outcome will be.

 

[RealityCheck52]

If all of that is true, then how do you explain Flacco's 57.6% completion rate, which ranked 26th in the NFL this year - behind Rex Grossman and Kevin Kolb, two guys who are very unlikely to be starting next year? Same goes for his 24th-ranked 6.66 yards per pass attempt, and the TD:INT ratio.

Even if you say that is not Flacco but other factors (receivers, coaches, etc.) causing those low rankings, the 2011 Ravens passing game is still the same regardless.

Before you respond by saying he'll have a career day because of the Patriots pass defense, I'll preemptively say that team yardage stats are relatively meaningless. Of the top ten "officially' (i.e., by yardage) ranked defenses, five made the playoffs and five did not - which are the identical numbers for the bottom ten defenses based on yardage!

One stat that has been proven to matter is turnovers though. The Ravens defense forced 26 turnovers; the Pats defense forced 34 turnovers. On offense the Ravens turned the ball over 24 times; the Pats turned the ball over 17 times.

Can the Ravens win? Absolutely; only a fool or a blind homer would think otherwise. From before the season began Baltimore was considered by most to be the team most likely to stand in the way of a return to the Super Bowl for the Patriots, and the season has proven that prediction to be valid. It's a very compelling matchup and should be a great game.

However I don't see why one would think that Flacco will have as good a game as Brady will unless it is wishful thinking brought on by blind homerism.

This has already been explained. Nothing is measured in a vaccum. This season the Ravens played the majority of their games against teams with top 5 pass defenses. That will cramp your QB rating real quick. Plus Ravens never got a chance to work in Evans.. their top receiver aquisition from the Bills.

I am sure Flacco is excited be going up against a Team that has a bottom of the league pass defense with his full complement of receivers.

 

[i82much]

How, exactly, is Flacco talented if he's inconsistent? Especially at the one position on a football team that demands consistency? He's well below average in accuracy, a poor ball handler and immobile. He's more a potential liability than winning asset. The best you can hope for him is minimal mistakes with a ball-control offense riding the back of the defense.

I think "talent" is another way of saying "potential." Flacco shows flashes of greatness and then has another bad game. Maybe he's regressed this year, maybe other factors are at play. You can debate that all day long. All I'd say is the guy has done a lot of good things for us and it's too early to say for sure whether he is going to take it to the next level. Just for reference, and not at all trying to imply Flacco is on TB's level, but:

Comparing Flacco To Remaining Playoff QBs « Baltimore Ravens Blogs

 

[dburgwin]

As if it's possible to overrate Brady.

Well said. Between you and Charles Pierce the eloquent defenses of the Patriots today have been overwhelming.

Cheers

 

[mgcolby]

I remember how he shredded the Steelers D.

And killed BUF. No, not the one where BUF picked him off 4 times and beat him, the other time you played them. Wait...BUF isn't a top 10 defense, nevermind that...

Yup, not his best day in Pittsburgh. A traditional zone dog blitz defense that decided to play man-1 out of nowhere. The Pats were slow to adjust. Not to mention TOP was 40 minutes to 20 minutes.

And Brady had his near annual stinker with 4 picks in week 3. And two of those picks were unreal plays by the defender but I'm guessing you didn't watch the game so I wouldn't expect you to know that.

Are you seriously walking down the path of suggesting that Flacco is in the same world as Brady?

Go back and look at the 2009 stats. Brady coming off of injury, with arguably the worst Pats team since 2002. A slowing one trick pony Moss, Welker and then no one else. No run game etc.... If I recall he had 10 games against top 10 defenses. Compare his numbers to Flacco's.

 

[Tunescribe]

I think "talent" is another way of saying "potential." Flacco shows flashes of greatness and then has another bad game. Maybe he's regressed this year, maybe other factors are at play. You can debate that all day long. All I'd say is the guy has done a lot of good things for us and it's too early to say for sure whether he is going to take it to the next level. Just for reference, and not at all trying to imply Flacco is on TB's level, but:

Comparing Flacco To Remaining Playoff QBs « Baltimore Ravens Blogs

Interesting but meaningless regarding this week. The way I see it, Baltimore's chances lie squarely with the defense generating turnovers.

 

[alvinnf]

NE fans and media pundits alike are all mistaken if they don't realize that Joe Flacco can beat them. Of course he can. Secondly I take nothing from last weekends performance against a far superior defense to NE's. If NE can slow down Ray Rice, they'll have a good chance to win. If they don't slow him down, they will get beaten by Ravens and whomever they have at QB. It's really just that simple. The only point of intrigue for me is whether or not they put the game in Flaccos hands early. If Balt comes out and runs on early downs I think they'll find themselves trailing and not in a particularly good position. If they are willing to pass on early downs I think they'll have a greater chance of exploiting the NE defense. With Ray Rice you can run in 2nd and 10 and still end up in 3rd and manageable. Will they take their chances with Flacco or play it conservative?

 

[Satchboogie3]

I'm not afraid of the Ravens and I'm very very confident, enought to even be taken as ****y. That said, I don't think I'm ****y, I just believe this team matches up fairly well RIGHT NOW with the Ravens and what I saw Saturday has built a ton of confidence. The defense looked energetic and stout. They didn't look confused or slow like other times this year. Brady and this offense are incredibly focused and look like an unstopable force.

Sure, the Ravens will give us a tough game, at least early on, and we could very well lose. Any given sunday. But both the players and fans need to have confidence and look to win a Superbowl. This team is looking good, they are at home, and they have BB/Brady at the helm. How can you not be really confident? If they lose, they lose, but I'm not going to be a nervous nelly just because of that possibility. I like what I see. I REALLY like what I see. There are no give-mes in the playoffs, this is about as good as a matchup as it gets (for a NE advantage).

Now possibly facing the Giants, that would keep me up at night (though I want to see that matchup if we advance. I want revenge.)

 

[flynismo]

As if it's possible to overrate Brady.

lol, well played..

So then he underestimates Flacco or our D. Or over rates NE's D

 

[Ron Sellers]

This has already been explained. Nothing is measured in a vaccum. This season the Ravens played the majority of their games against teams with top 5 pass defenses. That will cramp your QB rating real quick. Plus Ravens never got a chance to work in Evans.. their top receiver aquisition from the Bills.

I am sure Flacco is excited be going up against a Team that has a bottom of the league pass defense with his full complement of receivers.

And yardage means squat has been explained multiple times as well ... and continues to be ignored. Also the Patriots are the healthiest they have been all year on defense.

You keep holding onto that 'tougher opponents' mantra but I'm still having trouble buying it.

I could buy the ranking being lowered somewhat, but to the mid-twenties?

Maybe those other teams had good pass defense rankings in part because the faced the Ravens offense, as opposed to Flacco's numbers being lowered because they faced good defenses.

After all, you can't just look at those numbers in a vacuum, right?

 

[Patspsycho]

Suggs is old ??

lol.

Who is etc ?

Our leading DB in interceptions is a young spritely fellow called Ladarius Webb.. tell Brady to avoid throwing in his direction.

This myth has been busted.

Next.

Suggs will be 30. That isn't exactly being in the prime of your NFL career. Reed is 33, Lewis is 36.

Exactly how is that age "myth" busted?

 

[flynismo]

Yup, not his best day in Pittsburgh. A traditional zone dog blitz defense that decided to play man-1 out of nowhere. The Pats were slow to adjust. Not to mention TOP was 40 minutes to 20 minutes.

And Brady had his near annual stinker with 4 picks in week 3. And two of those picks were unreal plays by the defender but I'm guessing you didn't watch the game so I wouldn't expect you to know that.

Are you seriously walking down the path of suggesting that Flacco is in the same world as Brady?

Go back and look at the 2009 stats. Brady coming off of injury, with arguably the worst Pats team since 2002. A slowing one trick pony Moss, Welker and then no one else. No run game etc.... If I recall he had 10 games against top 10 defenses. Compare his numbers to Flacco's.

Nope, not suggesting Flacco is in Brady's class. What I was saying is that when you face a great defense and great running team this time of year, it would be foolish to be anything but cautiously optimistic.

As a Pats fan (see 2007 Super Bowl, our game in 2009 playoffs), you should already know that.

 

[flynismo]

Suggs will be 30. That isn't exactly being in the prime of your NFL career. Reed is 33, Lewis is 36.

Exactly how is that age "myth" busted?

Suggs is a front runner for DPOY. I'd consider that being in his prime.

 

[Ron Sellers]

Interesting but meaningless regarding this week. The way I see it, Baltimore's chances lie squarely with the defense generating turnovers.

Which is a far more meaningful statistic than yardage or strength of schedule.

Takeaways
- Ravens Defense: 26
- Patriots Defense: 34

Giveaways
- Ravens Offense: 24
- Patriots Offense: 17

Turnover Differential
- Ravens: +2
- Patriots +17

 

[supafly]

NE fans and media pundits alike are all mistaken if they don't realize that Joe Flacco can beat them. Of course he can. Secondly I take nothing from last weekends performance against a far superior defense to NE's. If NE can slow down Ray Rice, they'll have a good chance to win. If they don't slow him down, they will get beaten by Ravens and whomever they have at QB. It's really just that simple. The only point of intrigue for me is whether or not they put the game in Flaccos hands early. If Balt comes out and runs on early downs I think they'll find themselves trailing and not in a particularly good position. If they are willing to pass on early downs I think they'll have a greater chance of exploiting the NE defense. With Ray Rice you can run in 2nd and 10 and still end up in 3rd and manageable. Will they take their chances with Flacco or play it conservative?

It will be interesting to see how Belichick plays his hand this week.

Everyone is assuming that Ray Rice will be the key feature. While I agree (obviously) on some level, there must remain balance too.

It will be interesting to see how he utilizes his safeties to help with the run support, because if he does it will then open up some of the passing lanes and make things a lot simpler for Flacco.

We all remember the SB game when Belichick was DC of the NYG. His job was to help take away a potent Buffalo offense, led by Thurman Thomas as their RB. Yet he "allowed" Thurman Thomas to effectively run on some "lesser" level, to limit the Bills' possessions and help chew up clock.

Thomas ended up having a huge day, but the NYG ended up with the win.

I am not suggesting that the Pats should allow Rice to run wild, but at the same time I am not suggesting that they pull a **** LeBeau and bring up too many men in the box either, allowing Flacco to beat them.

It will be interesting to see what the mad genius comes up with. I still see BAL scoring approx. 20-23 points unfortunately. I hope I am wrong of course, but I think you can only limit Rice and the WR's so much.

This game will come down to protecting Brady, limiting turnovers, and trying to keep Baltimore to FG's instead of TD's.

 

[mgcolby]

Nope, not suggesting Flacco is in Brady's class. What I was saying is that when you face a great defense and great running team this time of year, it would be foolish to be anything but cautiously optimistic.

As a Pats fan (see 2007 Super Bowl, our game in 2009 playoffs), you should already know that.

I'm not saying Brady can't have a stinker. In fact I stated that as one of the keys for your team to win. If Brady is on I don't care what your offense does you will lose. You need for Brady to be off and Rice to have a big day. If both don't happen it is a blowout, if one happens it will be a close game.

 

[flynismo]

It will be interesting to see how Belichick plays his hand this week.

Everyone is assuming that Ray Rice will be the key feature. While I agree (obviously) on some level, there must remain balance too.

It will be interesting to see how he utilizes his safeties to help with the run support, because if he does it will then open up some of the passing lanes and make things a lot simpler for Flacco.

We all remember the SB game when Belichick was DC of the NYG. His job was to help take away a potent Buffalo offense, led by Thurman Thomas as their RB. Yet he "allowed" Thurman Thomas to effectively run on some "lesser" level, to limit the Bills' possessions and help chew up clock.

Thomas ended up having a huge day, but the NYG ended up with the win.

I am not suggesting that the Pats should allow Rice to run wild, but at the same time I am not suggesting that they pull a **** LeBeau and bring up too many men in the box either, allowing Flacco to beat them.

It will be interesting to see what the mad genius comes up with. I still see BAL scoring approx. 20-23 points unfortunately. I hope I am wrong of course, but I think you can only limit Rice and the WR's so much.

This game will come down to protecting Brady, limiting turnovers, and trying to keep Baltimore to FG's instead of TD's.

Not that our predictions matter, but I see us scoring 23 - 27 points.
The part I havent figured out is whether we are going to hold NE to 17 - 20 or let Brady drop 30+.

 

[supafly]

Not that our predictions matter, but I see us scoring 23 - 27 points.
The part I havent figured out is whether we are going to hold NE to 17 - 20 or let Brady drop 30+.

I think that is a very fair assessment.

The home defense has played much better than the away defense, so they may be able to limit you to FG's instead of TD's on a couple of drives.

The defensive points per game is 18 in Foxborough.

I agree that the Brady and our offense is probably the wildcard factor of the game. It will likely come down to whether your team can keep him to 10-14 per half.

 

[alvinnf]

It will be interesting to see how Belichick plays his hand this week.

Everyone is assuming that Ray Rice will be the key feature. While I agree (obviously) on some level, there must remain balance too.

It will be interesting to see how he utilizes his safeties to help with the run support, because if he does it will then open up some of the passing lanes and make things a lot simpler for Flacco.

We all remember the SB game when Belichick was DC of the NYG. His job was to help take away a potent Buffalo offense, led by Thurman Thomas as their RB. Yet he "allowed" Thurman Thomas to effectively run on some "lesser" level, to limit the Bills' possessions and help chew up clock.

Thomas ended up having a huge day, but the NYG ended up with the win.

I am not suggesting that the Pats should allow Rice to run wild, but at the same time I am not suggesting that they pull a **** LeBeau and bring up too many men in the box either, allowing Flacco to beat them.

It will be interesting to see what the mad genius comes up with. I still see BAL scoring approx. 20-23 points unfortunately. I hope I am wrong of course, but I think you can only limit Rice and the WR's so much.

This game will come down to protecting Brady, limiting turnovers, and trying to keep Baltimore to FG's instead of TD's.

IMO, he always keeps a safety deep. I think they will focus on Rice in the passing game in the flanks. Lots of cover 2 "looks" but really cover 1. I think they'll take their chances with Rice in the running game. But not at the expense of getting beat over the top.