No what would be silly is to pay people for past performance going forward, when its highly unlikely for them to keep up the current production. In other words paying more and getting less. This is NOT the blueprint for continuing success. The league is littered with teams that have done this and were soon drafting in the top 10 trying to correct that mistake.
Not to take anything away from Welker's accomplishments over the past 5 season. The Pats certainly got their money's worth, and somehow people seem to resent it. Besides its hard to throw a pity party for a guy who will have made close to $30MM by the end of this season.
Welker's salary prospect have NOTHING to do with what other teams are throwing at 26-28 year old receivers in FA. He's 31, small of stature, and taken quite a beating over the past 5 years. It is unreasonable to think that the kind of player he is now, will be the kind of player we will see in 3 years. History tells us, when players of his size lose it, they lose it fast.
If this was only a matter of paying him for past performance, then fine, give him what he wants. (probably around $10MM/yr) However this is ALL about paying him fairly for what he's likely to produce over the next 3 or 4 years, which would be closer to $6-8MM/yr. That's the impasse. Welker wants to be paid for past production, The Pats want to pay him based on what they think will be the future results.
As it is, Welker's numbers are likely to be down, even if there is absolutely no diminishment of his skills. Brady will have other targets to go to. and a bigger emphasis on the running game, all will eat into Welker's numbers. I can see the Pats offense have another great year, with Welker having "only" 90 odd catches
What should the Pats do? Offer him a deal in the range of 3 years for $22MM with 14 guaranteed. If he balks on that, then let him play for his "measly" $9.3MM this season and move on. Better a year too early than a year too late.