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Brady will be 34 next season, how many more years as an elite QB?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Pessimistic Pete, Jan 17, 2011.

?

How many more elite years?

  1. 0 (This was last elite year)

    7.5%
  2. 1 (34)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. 2 (35)

    13.4%
  4. 3 (36)

    28.4%
  5. 4 (37)

    23.9%
  6. 5 (38)

    20.9%
  7. 6 (39)

    1.5%
  8. 7 (40+)

    4.5%
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  1. Pessimistic Pete

    Pessimistic Pete Rookie

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    Hopefully he can be a Brett Favre/Elway type of guy.

    It's promising that statistically, his best 3 seasons were his last 3. Though the playoffs are a completely different story...
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2011
  2. Disco Volante

    Disco Volante Rookie

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    Crazy how fast time goes by.
  3. Elijah

    Elijah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #11 Jersey

    He was done by 2005 :bricks:
  4. Pessimistic Pete

    Pessimistic Pete Rookie

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    Damn, Peyton will be turning 35 this year. Do you guys think he will last any longer than Brady?
  5. DocHoliday

    DocHoliday Rookie

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    Brady will be 34, but you have to remember he's only really played 9 years in the NFL. And those have been relatively good times.

    Aside from his knee, he hasn't been knocked around too much. I see him putting up good numbers till 38.
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2011
  6. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    As long as his has a good o-line, 4 more el primo years.

    If there are more games like yesterday than not, he'll be done by 2014.
  7. BradyToAmendola

    BradyToAmendola Rookie

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    5 more elite years. 2 more Super Bowl rings in that time.
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2011
  8. D-Money

    D-Money Rookie

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    Brady might have a career as a great QB who could have been the greatest had it not been for the second half of his career.These playoffs loses are not helping him.:(
  9. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    No idea, but I'm definitely not banking on 7+. Enough guys have played at a high level into their late 30s that I think that that's plenty realistic. It all depends on how good a job the line does of protecting him, really, which is one of many reasons why I think that's by far the biggest hole that needs addressing this offseason.
  10. TriplecHamp

    TriplecHamp Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    I say minimum of 3 max of 4.
  11. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Brady clearly wants to play (at least he says he does) as long as he can. Practically speaking, it depends on the toll that injuries have/will have taken on him.

    The experience of other HOF QB's says that he could have three or four more years playing at a high level, but that he also might see his skills decline sooner. The average retirement age of an SB-era, HOF QB is 37.5, usually, but not always, with a diminution of skills towards the end.

    The only HOF QB to win a Super Bowl after the age of 35 was John Elway, who set the pleasant precedent of winning two at the ages of 37 and 38.

    Brett Favre is the gold standard of performance by a QB into his late 30's and even after 40, but even he didn't win a championship late in his career.

    Troy Aikman, taking care of his health in an enlightened way before today's emphasis on the risk of concussions, retired at 34, as did Joe Namath because of his ruined knees.

    Terry Bradshaw and Bob Griese retired at 35. Dan Fouts and Jim Kelly at 36. Bart Starr and Roger Staubach at 37.

    Elway, Montana, Tarkenton and Young retired at 38, but only Elway was still at the peak of his powers when he did.

    The old timers were more likely to hang around longer: Dawson, Jurgensen and Unitas all retired at 40. Warren Moon was the outlier, retiring at 44.
  12. Stl Jet fan

    Stl Jet fan Rookie

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    Hey guys, I know it was a dissapointing loss. However I look forward to many more competetive years between the Pats and Jets. Regarding the poll ?, I would like to ask you guys how much longer you think Billy B. intends to coach? I think Bill and Brady go hand in hand. Would Belicheck retire if Brady does and vice versa?
  13. Free_Pacman

    Free_Pacman Rookie

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    Despite what he says about wanting to play into his 40s, I could see him retiring in the next two years. He has everything anyone could ever want. Why would he continue to put his life on the line just to experience heartbreak after heartbreak? Why should he continue to put his life on the line when our coach and owner refuse to spend money and constantly in the bottom half of team payrolls? If this team spent money on someone like Julius Peppers this offseason, Patriots would probably be playing for a chance at the Super Bowl next weekend.
  14. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    IMO Brady will retire at the age of 36 in 2014 or maybe even at 35 in 2013

    The man has a wife,2 kids,a modeling career and other companies ready to pay him handsomely for endorsements and he does not need the money or the abuse by then.

    His window to win another title is 3 years or less IMO

    Belichick may be around about the same time frame...maybe a little longer but by 2015 I would be shocked if both were still here
  15. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think he'll play for as long as he thinks he can still win another Super Bowl with the Patriots. As long as he feels he has the skills and as long as he feels the Pats management is surrounding him with a team that can win, he'll be playing. I don't see him "hanging around" when he believes either is no longer the case.

    Given the hits he takes and the injury he had, I look at his current contract, through 2014 and his 37th birthday (37 is the average retirement age of an SB Era HOF QB), as a realistic time frame. If, in two or three years, he thinks he can pull an Elway and win a championship at 37 or 38, he'll stay; otherwise, he won't and I'm betting that it will turn out that way.

    That's why this week's loss is so bad. The Pats "should" have gone to Dallas and the window is closing on the chance to have more opportunities like the one he had.

    I also think he'll give Pats management (i.e., the Krafts and Belichick) at least a one, maybe two, season, very, very private "heads up" so they can plan the transition. Part of me had thought that he would retire if he had won number four (the only milestone left for him, given that Bradshaw and Montana accomplished it) this year, but I don't think he'd ever leave the Pats with "the Hoyer era" as their only alternative.
  16. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    You know what I love about you? Your sunny optimism.

    No chance that Brady retires at age 35 or 36 unless injuries force him out. Brady is a competitor and like most competitors they practically have to be dragged from the game at the end of their careers. I think Brady was dead serious that he intend to play into his 40s.

    As for how many years of elite status, I would say 4-6 years. Favre was elite last year before he fell apart this year. And Favre was wildly inconsistent in his early to mid 30s unlike Brady. I also think missing a year due to an injury may prolong Brady's carreer. He had a year off of wear and tear to the rest of his body especially his throwing arm.
  17. Disco Volante

    Disco Volante Rookie

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    For those wondering, here's all the QBs who have won a Super Bowl at 34+. Obviously some were a lot more important to their team than others.

    34
    Brad Johnson (2003)
    Len Sawson (1970)
    Bart Starr (1968)

    35
    Roger Staubach (1978)

    36
    Jim Plunkett (1984)

    37
    John Elway (1998)
    Johnny Unitas (1971)

    38
    John Elway (1999)

    Most SB QBs fall within the 26-33 age range.
  18. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    You forgot Phil Simms was 36 when he won his second although he missed most of the season due to injuries and then played in the Super Bowl.

    Don't forget some notable Super Bowl losing QB ages when they lost the Super Bowl (in other words, one game from the ultimate goal):

    Rich Gannon - 37 (and he was league MVP)
    Kurt Warner - 37
    Roger Staubach - 36 (you listed the last time he won, but he lost one a year later. Was about a week away from turning 37 when the Cowboys lost to the Steelers in the Super Bowl)
    Fran Tarkenton - 36
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2011
  19. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    Jeff Hostetler played Qb. Simms still had the broken foot.
  20. Haley

    Haley Rookie

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    Eh, I went with 7+. I'm a homer and proud of it. So sue me.

    I do think that changes to the rules of the game will keep QBs playing for more years than some of the old timers.
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