Belichick the GM

[Oswlek]

The success rate for Firstr round picks is only 76%.
The success rate for Second round picks is 50%

BB's First picks for the last five years are all starters, now that Chung has been re-signed. Success rate 100%.

Even though two of his First picks, were really Second rounders.

I believe Belichick has a perfect record of 100% for every First pick going back to his arrival as HC.

I agree that the least successful of his FIrst picks were Maroney and Meriwether. But Maroney played for 3 years, and Meriwether is still in the league.

We agree on the overall gist.

I use the term "success rate" a lot, but when you get so specific I think you need to be more detailed in how you are defining it. Is it a starter? A solid role player? Someone still in the league on a second contract? Are you grading on a scale that takes draft position into consideration?

I ask because your, IMO, your numbers are high. I've reviewed many drafts and I don't think there is a 76% success rate in the first 5 picks, let alone the entire first round. To get that high a number, "success" must be defined as, "anyone who can play a lick." Mark Sanchez is showing some spunk with Philly, is he a success? How about Jerry Hughes? Or does it need to be a complete bust like Vernon Gholston to be considered a failure?

But, again, I agree with your overall point, I'm just interested in where your numbers come from.

 

[Danger Zone]

We agree on the overall gist.

...

But, again, I agree with your overall point, I'm just interested in where your numbers come from.

http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology408_1.php

http://datascopeanalytics.com/what-we-think/2012/05/01/the-chance-of-a-bust-in-the-nfl-draft

EDIT:

I think I will add this one to my Signature:
http://www.vox.com/2014/5/7/5683448...asic-economics-and-draft-players-irrationally

This is based only on Pro-Bowl appearances:
http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2012-04-22/nfl-draft-2012-first-round-disappointments

 

[RobertWeathers]

I meant every year since 2009. I think the Pats have gotten at least two real contributors every year for the past six drafts, which I don't think anyone else can say.

If you look at Denver's recent drafts, here's who you get:
2009 Knowshon Moreno, Robert Ayers (borderline)
2010 Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Zane Beadles
2011 Von Miller, Orlando Franklin
2012 Almost no one of note. Derek Wolfe seems to be the highest rated at 12 CarAve.
2013 Montee Ball
2014 Bradley Roby maybe

Ah. Thanks for clarifying...

I'd take a look at GB. They seem to land 1-2 starters/contributors every year with an AV of > 5 (Ryan's) every year.

Nevertheless, your point it noted and I agree with you. The Pats are #1 in the NFL at personnel management (FA, UFA, Draft, trades, draft picks, waiving players, cap hit+pay=production+projection).

Now if they can only draft wide receivers...

 

[Oswlek]

http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology408_1.php

http://datascopeanalytics.com/what-we-think/2012/05/01/the-chance-of-a-bust-in-the-nfl-draft

The WF one supports my contention that the draft isn't much more than a 50/50 shot even in the first round.

 

[Danger Zone]

The WF one supports my contention that the draft isn't much more than a 50/50 shot even in the first round.

And of course there's the study in my signature.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/

I usually use a 30% bust rate when making the same point as Az, but I almost always use very conservative numbers when making these points so I certainly dont mind using a 25% bust rate figure.

50% would be eye popping in my opinion, but even a 25% bust rate throughout the First round still makes the point we are trying to get across.

- The NFL draft is a crap shoot even when the absolute best of the best in talent evaluators and scouts hired by a highly motivated multi-billion dollar Darwinistic organization are giving it everything they have.


EDIT: I've been meaning to add this study to my Signature and I think I will do so now. Has some very interesting findings about the Draft.

http://www.vox.com/2014/5/7/5683448...asic-economics-and-draft-players-irrationally

 

[Oswlek]

And of course there's the study in my signature.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/

I usually use a 30% bust rate when making the same point as Az, but I almost always use very conservative numbers when making these points so I certainly dont mind using a 25% bust rate figure.

50% would be eye popping in my opinion, but even a 25% bust rate throughout the First round still makes the point we are trying to get across.

- The NFL draft is a crap shoot even when the absolute best of the best in talent evaluators and scouts hired by a highly motivated multi-billion dollar Darwinistic organization are giving it everything they have.


EDIT: I've been meaning to add this study to my Signature and I think I will do so now. Has some very interesting findings about the Draft.

http://www.vox.com/2014/5/7/5683448...asic-economics-and-draft-players-irrationally

I hear you, and we're mostly in agreement. I just think a binary model needs clear definitions otherwise you end up with guys like Meriweather - who only played 4-5 good games and couldn't even make it to the end of his rookie contract - as a success.

I'd much rather see it broken into four groups - great, good, meh and bust. Or even just three with the first two bundled - good+, meh, bust. I think that would provide a clearer understanding of just how difficult it is to find even an average starter in the draft.

 

[Kontradiction]

I said in another thread that his "scrap heap" in-season pick-ups have been his best in years. Ayers production thus far in this defense has been off the charts and we all know what Blount can do in this offense. His free agency pick-ups have ranged anywhere from solid gold (Revis) to very good (Browner, LaFell), to non-deficiencies thus far (Chung).

I think the only area that's been remotely suspect has been the draft. Easley (who I was very high on pre-draft and am still high on) is having knee issues crop up again, Garoppolo is still a waste of a pick as Brady doesn't look like he's going to slow down any time soon, Stork, do date, has been the best pick. He solidified the center position (a position that has needed to be solidified since the 2011 season) and allowed Wendell to move to RG where he has been less of a liability. James White, a pick I loved, hasn't done anything. Fleming has been useful as a 6th OL in jumbo packages and the Pats love running behind him. His career trajectory should be pointing up after this season. Zach Moore is seeing more and more snaps in sub, which is going to be something interesting to watch going forward.

If Easley stays healthy and starts producing, the draft looks much better. Even then, it's not a disaster. But it was, and still is, suspect. The good news is that it's still very early in that regard. Overall, I think Belichick the GM has done a good job this year.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Except for a couple of years where bb kept drafting defensive backs early and ignoring the lines, bb the GM has been really good, not just at draft time, but in knowing when to say bye bye with veterans and keeping us out of cap trouble.

 

[Oswlek]

I think the only area that's been remotely suspect has been the draft. Easley (who I was very high on pre-draft and am still high on) is having knee issues crop up again, Garoppolo is still a waste of a pick as Brady doesn't look like he's going to slow down any time soon, Stork, do date, has been the best pick. He solidified the center position (a position that has needed to be solidified since the 2011 season) and allowed Wendell to move to RG where he has been less of a liability. James White, a pick I loved, hasn't done anything. Fleming has been useful as a 6th OL in jumbo packages and the Pats love running behind him. His career trajectory should be pointing up after this season. Zach Moore is seeing more and more snaps in sub, which is going to be something interesting to watch going forward.

But it was, and still is, suspect.

These two statements are at odds with one another. Getting a good starter, a viable starter/excellent rotational player and two complimentary pieces in the first year of a draft is excellent.

Calling Gops a "waste of a pick" makes no sense to me. He saves NE $3mm annually in cap space for the next 4 years over, gives NE flexibility for Brady's inevitable decline and upgraded the backup QB spot substantially.

 

[mayoclinic]

Except for a couple of years where bb kept drafting defensive backs early and ignoring the lines, bb the GM has been really good, not just at draft time, but in knowing when to say bye bye with veterans and keeping us out of cap trouble.

Other than the Seahawks and possibly the Broncos, I'm not sure I can think of another team that has done such an effective job of roster building since 2010:

- 2010: Drafted McCourty (trade back), Gronk (trade up) and Hernandez (from the trade back; no one knew he was a psychopath at the time); signed Danny Wodhead
- 2011: Drafted Solder, Vereen, Ridley and Cannon; traded for a 2012 1st that yielded Jones; picked up Brian Waters and Nick McDonald to shore up the OL
- 2012: Traded up for Chandler Jones and Hightower, traded back to get Ebner and Dennard; traded for Talib during the season to address a major problem in the secondary
- 2013: Traded back in a 4-for-1 which yielded Collins and Ryan, and part of what was traded to TB for Blount; signed Tommy Kelly; picked up Chris Jones and Siliga during the season to fill in for injuries
- 2014: Drafted Easley, Garoppolo, Stork and Fleming; signed Revis and Browner in FA; re-signed Edelman, Wendell; picked up Chung on the cheap; traded for Wright, Ayers and Casillas; signed Branch and Blount during the season

No one does as much as BB to address the roster during the season, and adjusts to fill needs. Brian Waters and Aqib Talib were major additions that significantly impacted critical units. BB keeps cap flexibility so that he can maneuver during the season. Danny Woodhead, Brian Waters, Aqib Talib, Chris Jones, Sealver Siliga, Akeem Ayers, Jonathan Casillas, Alan Branch and LeGarrette Blount (2nd time) were all added after the training camp ended.

 

[Kontradiction]

These two statements are at odds with one another. Getting a good starter, a viable starter/excellent rotational player and two complimentary pieces in the first year of a draft is excellent.

They're not at odds at all with one another and I described exactly why.

Calling Gops a "waste of a pick" makes no sense to me. He saves NE $3mm annually in cap space for the next 4 years over, gives NE flexibility for Brady's inevitable decline and upgraded the backup QB spot substantially.

1. There were other needs that could have been addressed with that pick.

2. Are we suddenly very tight against the cap or did something happen with the cap that I didn't know about?

The quarterback pick was a horrible one. Needs at other positions outweight a $3M cap savings, particularly when the team is relatively flush with cap space.

 

[slam]

Ah. Thanks for clarifying...

I'd take a look at GB. They seem to land 1-2 starters/contributors every year with an AV of > 5 (Ryan's) every year.

Nevertheless, your point it noted and I agree with you. The Pats are #1 in the NFL at personnel management (FA, UFA, Draft, trades, draft picks, waiving players, cap hit+pay=production+projection).

Now if they can only draft wide receivers...

They killed it in 2009 and 2010, but got only Randall Cobb out of 2011 and no one at all has worked out from 2012. It was notably terrible, as seen in this article. You'll remember their 2nd round pick Jerel Worthy as the guy who we traded a conditional 7th for if he could make our opening day roster. He couldn't.

I think the lesson is that if you scrutinize other teams' draft histories to the extent we do our own, you'll find that the grass isn't greener in the other draft rooms.

 

[Oswlek]

They're not at odds at all with one another and I described exactly why.

Considering I quoted and responded to your explanation, I think we can safely assume I saw it. Just in case you missed my comment, here it is.

Getting a good starter, a viable starter/excellent rotational player and two complimentary pieces in the first year of a draft is excellent.

Are you really saying that getting two viable starters and two rotational contributors in their rookie seasons makes a draft suspect?

1. There were other needs that could have been addressed with that pick.

2. Are we suddenly very tight against the cap or did something happen with the cap that I didn't know about?

The quarterback pick was a horrible one. Needs at other positions outweight a $3M cap savings, particularly when the team is relatively flush with cap space.

37 year old QB coming off a down year, albeit an explainable one. Backup QB going into the final contract year and you have no plans to re-sign him. Below average QBs in the FA market now cost $5mm a year to hold a clip-board.

Not only are the factors understandable in retrospect, I predicted it beforehand. I went into that draft fully expecting NE to select a QB in the top three rounds and it befuddles me anyone thought differently. The fact that Gops just had the best preseason of any rookie QB under Bill only validates his selection.

The funny thing is, I don't disagree with you entirely. The draft wasn't the complete home run NE's mid-season acquisitions have been. Like any fan, I'm feel the tug for immediate payouts over long-term planning, so I wouldn't have complained had NE chose another position there. But "suspect" and "horrible" are wholly erroneous descriptions.

I suppose it could be mostly a semantic issue, but if so, you are being so hyperbolic that it is impossible to tell the difference.

 

[Double TE]

I think Dobson will end up being a quality WR too.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

That adds to the point. Belichick the GM doesn't have many chances at players like that who go 12th overall. The only Top 20 picks he's had are Seymour, Warren, Mayo, Solder.

And he nailed it on all of them. Solder is probably the least impressive one out of those 4 but he's still a good LT that can play on this team for the next 10 years

 

[Kontradiction]

Considering I quoted and responded to your explanation, I think we can safely assume I saw it. Just in case you missed my comment, here it is.

I assumed you didn't because you said the two statements were at odds with one another.

Are you really saying that getting two viable starters and two rotational contributors in their rookie seasons makes a draft suspect?

Who, to date, are the two viable starters? I see one thus far, and that's Stork. Easley was inserted into the starting line-up due to the injury to Chandler Jones and those knee issues have cropped back up thus far. Thus far, you have a first round pick that looks like he's not fully healthy yet, a second round waste of a quarterback, a very solid 4th round starter at C, a non-existant 4th round RB who was clearly having trouble with his patience and seeing blocks develop, a rotational 4th round guy who has been used as a 6th OL against weak run defenses, a 6th round guard who looked awful and is no longer in the league, a 6th round rotational DT/DE who sees the field due to versatility, a 6th round safety who is no longer in the league, and a 7th round slot receiver who plays in the FXFL now. You'll forgive me if I'm not overwhelmed by this draft.

Now, that said, if one of these guys begins to shine before the end of the year, I'll do a reassessment. But, right now, it's a suspect draft for a GM that had 5 picks in the first 4 rounds of a very deep draft.

37 year old QB coming off a down year, albeit an explainable one. Backup QB going into the final contract year and you have no plans to re-sign him. Below average QBs in the FA market now cost $5mm a year to hold a clip-board.

Not only are the factors understandable in retrospect, I predicted it beforehand. I went into that draft fully expecting NE to select a QB in the top three rounds and it befuddles me anyone thought differently. The fact that Gops just had the best preseason of any rookie QB under Bill only validates his selection.

This does nothing to dispute the fact that quarterback was a need that could have been filled next year. It was a waste of a pick.

The funny thing is, I don't disagree with you entirely. The draft wasn't the complete home run NE's mid-season acquisitions have been. Like any fan, I'm feel the tug for immediate payouts over long-term planning, so I wouldn't have complained had NE chose another position there. But "suspect" and "horrible" are wholly erroneous descriptions.

I suppose it could be mostly a semantic issue, but if so, you are being so hyperbolic that it is impossible to tell the difference.

It's not semantics. Nor am I tossing out hyperbole. The draft, to date, is suspect and is, quite easily, the worst part of an offseason that otherwise could have been a complete home run.

 

[Oswlek]

I assumed you didn't because you said the two statements were at odds with one another.

This does nothing to dispute the fact that quarterback was a need that could have been filled next year. It was a waste of a pick.

If you have a need (which was bigger than most - including you - realized since Mallet was a lost cause) and you see a player you love that you rate higher than available options, why wait? Are late second success rates so high that we assume a player picked at any other position would be a surefire starter? What if you think Gops was a better fit and a better prospect than anyone you'll have a reasonable chance of getting in the next couple years? Given the year Tom is having, why isn't it just as much of a waste next year? Why is cap space saved only valuable if you are up against the limit or it is utilized that year?

The situation is far more complex than you either realize or admit.

You'll forgive me if I'm not overwhelmed by this draft.

With that inaccurate assessment, I can see why you aren't. Even with a more reasonable approach, it still isn't "overwhelming", it's just a good, solid draft, despite the number of players already let go. It isn't about the misses, it's about the hits.

Nor am I tossing out hyperbole

Yes, you are. You may not intend to, but you are. Enjoy the last word.

 

[mgteich]

At that point why don't we just wish for Mike Evans or Sammy Watkins?

because beckham is better than either

 

[JarOfMayo51]

2. Are we suddenly very tight against the cap or did something happen with the cap that I didn't know about?

If you look at the cap situation in a bubble as it exists right now, no tthey aren't tight against it.. but if you look less than 1 year into the future you have the following guys you need to sign or extend..

Revis
Mccourty
Ghostkowski
Ayers
Branch
Ridley
Vereen
Casillas
Chung

That doesn't include the bump they'll most likely give to Brady..

And if you look another year out, you need to worry about guys like

Chandler Jones
Hightower
Solder
Logan Ryan
Arrington
Wright
Ryan Allen

So that $3 million will be desperately needed in the next two offseasons...

That's how you stay competitiv, with forward thinking and cap management . Wilfork will be off the books in 2 to 3 years and replaced with another top contract, but they still need A LOT of cap room to keep this team together and to lock up all of their young, drafted talent

 

[Danger Zone]

And he nailed it on all of them. Solder is probably the least impressive one out of those 4 but he's still a good LT that can play on this team for the next 10 years

NFL did a top 32 list of the best and worst First Round draft picks of the last 10 years.

Patriots had 3 of the best and none of the worst.

http://www.nfl.com/photoessays/0ap2000000346036