Bedard: Turning the Corner

[BradyManny]

Fully committed to a 43 base? What do you base that conclusion on?

That's fine. I'll backtrack on that.

They'll continue to play both.

Obviously.

But 43 - like it was for most of last year - is what our personnel is better suited for, and will receive more snaps. As it did last year.

I don't want to get into an argument from the other thread. I'm tired of arguing over what this team will do with a handful of its snaps.

 

[Deus Irae]

That's fine. I'll backtrack on that.

They'll continue to play both.

Obviously.

But 43 - like it was for most of last year - is what our personnel is better suited for, and will receive more snaps. As it did last year.

I don't want to get into an argument from the other thread. I'm tired of arguing over what this team will do with a handful of its snaps.

Please explain how this team is better suited to the 4-3 than the 3-4, focusing particularly on the linebackers, if you would.

 

[patfanken]

I've been following Cunningham for much, MUCH longer than the majority of you (PatsBoy12 and GatorMike excluded) and I just don't see him turning the corner. I thought he was the wrong pick to make at the time (admittedly, though, I would have taken Dunlap) and I still do. He hasn't done anything to make anyone believe that he'll turn the corner outside of a pass rush against Manning back in 2010. Why would we expect it this year? FWIW, I agree with the rest, though.

Normally I would tend to agree with you, but I was surprised to find that Cunningham recorded 23 pressures according to Bedard's article. That's a good number especially when you consider he was making what is normally one of the toughest position transitions to make coming from a college DE to a 3-4 OLB, in what was then a primarily 2 gap system.

I acknowledge that he hasn't shown that "burst" that you'd like to see in a great pass rusher, but that doesn't mean that he can't be a productive NFL player. Everyone can't be a star pass rusher. He set the edge very well for a rookie in 2010. I saw his role this year is to be the strong OLB in those subsets when the Pats are in their old 3-4 alignment

Clearly Cunningham didn't do well with his free time during the lockout and it cost him dearly. However by all accounts he's been a hard worker this off season and its way too early to write him off as a contributor this season.

Sometimes I think we as fans, are like 4 year olds. We want it and we want it NOW! We play with our toys and the second they aren't bright and shiny enough, we want to discard them for new ones.

 

[BradyManny]

Please explain how this team is better suited to the 4-3 than the 3-4, focusing particularly on the linebackers, if you would.

We're lacking in 34DEs. We're lacking a 34NT backup. We're lacking in experienced 34OLBs.

Spikes, Mayo & Hightower - I don't think it matters. They will (projecting Hightower) excel in both. Jones & Bequette will take time to learn 34 OLB. We don't know when/if they can handle the responsibilities there. Ninkovich is our only adequate 34 OLB. Anderson played it at the end of the year, and he's gone. Fanene has more experience and projects better at 43DE than he does 34DE.

Explain how this defense is better suited to 34 right now?

Long term, maybe. But are you really going to ask Chanlder Jones to play 34OLB this year?

 

[Deus Irae]

We're lacking in 34DEs. We're lacking a 34NT backup. We're lacking in experienced 34OLBs.

Spikes, Mayo & Hightower - I don't think it matters. They will (projecting Hightower) excel in both. Jones & Bequette will take time to learn 34 OLB. We don't know when/if they can handle the responsibilities there. Ninkovich is our only adequate 34 OLB. Anderson played it at the end of the year, and he's gone. Fanene has more experience and projects better at 43DE than he does 34DE.

Explain how this defense is better suited to 34 right now?

Long term, maybe. But are you really going to ask Chanlder Jones to play 34OLB this year?

Spikes, Mayo and Hightower are all much weaker against the pass than the run. They are all also large LBs, as opposed to the smaller speed guys you'd normally be looking for in the 4-3.

Wilfork is the best NT in the game.

This defense is still built for the 3-4 base, with a lot of players available to augment that in sub packages, and a couple of potential "elephant" players.

 

[patfanken]

Please explain how this team is better suited to the 4-3 than the 3-4, focusing particularly on the linebackers, if you would.

I think we are all getting too tied up in this 4-3, 3-4 thing. Very often a 3-4 "over" looks very much like a 4-3 look, and if we aren't privy to the call, we'd never know.

The Bottom line is a change in defensive philosophy league wide. In order to have a chance in defending a Pats style short passing attack is to apply immediate pressure up the middle. The best way to do that is to have 2 inside pass rushers pushing the pocket, hence a 4-3 look (or more likely that 2-5 look we've been talking about)

Face it, guys, in this day and age, there ARE no "base defenses", only base techniques, and a common language to direct the players to the right spots with the correct information to apply those techniques in a unified manner

 

[BradyManny]

Spikes, Mayo and Hightower are all much weaker against the pass than the run. They are all also very large LBs, as opposed to the smaller speed guys you'd normally be looking for in the 4-3.

Wilfork is the best NT in the game.

This defense is still built for the 3-4 base, with a lot of players available to augment that in sub packages, and a couple of potential "elephant" players.

Hmm, maybe in a couple years. Jones could be a beast elephant. Bequette might turn into a higher upside Ninko. Sure, I can buy a lot of that.

But not right now.

Wilfork is still one of the best 43DTs in the game. Wilfork is going to be one of the best DL no matter where he plays.


Also keep in mind that Hightower and Spikes are both probably best cut out to be SILBs in a 34. Granted, I'm sure Belichick sees Hightower's skills working just fine at 34OLB & 43MLB otherwise he wouldn't have drafted him. I'm pretty sure Belichick sees Hightower as what he wanted Afalius to be - a guy who can play several LB positions in either base defense, and pretty much anywhere in a sub.

 

[Deus Irae]

Hmm, maybe in a couple years. Jones could be a beast elephant. Bequette might turn into a higher upside Ninko. Sure, I can buy a lot of that.

But not right now.

Wilfork is still one of the best 43DTs in the game. Wilfork is going to be one of the best DL no matter where he plays.


Also keep in mind that Hightower and Spikes are both probably best cut out to be SILBs in a 34. Granted, I'm sure Belichick sees Hightower's skills working just fine at 34OLB & 43MLB otherwise he wouldn't have drafted him. I'm pretty sure Belichick sees Hightower as what he wanted Afalius to be - a guy who can play several LB positions in either base defense, and pretty much anywhere in a sub.

How does any of this indicate 4-3 base?

 

[BradyManny]

Face it, guys, in this day and age, there ARE no "base defenses", only base techniques, and a common language to direct the players to the right spots with the correct information to apply those techniques in a unified manner

Belichick isn't thinking about positions anymore.

It's about skillsets.

Hightower can defend the run, drop in coverage, blitz, rush the passer with speed.

Spikes can defend the run, blitz, and drop in coverage adequately.

Jones can defend the run, rush the passer with speed, rush the passer with power.

Bequette can defend the run, rush the passer with speed, maybe drop in coverage.

Belichick wants guys with versatile skillsets and overlapping skillsets. I think we sometimes forget that positions exist only for the reason that players have different skillsets that fill different roles. When you have a defense with guys with multiple skillsets, positions becomes less important.

And your ability to confuse the offense increases tremendously.

 

[BradyManny]

How does any of this indicate 4-3 base?

Jones & Bequette can step in much sooner and play 43DE. Trevor Scott can contribute much sooner at 43DE. Spikes, Mayo & Hightower will make a beast LB core in a 43.

What's wrong with any of that?

 

[Ring 6]

I'm not. Starting in this defense as a rookie, even if it isn't from Week 1 on, is definitely an accomplishment. I'll say the same about Hightower and Jones, should that happen. But, outside of a pass rush in one game that forced a bad throw, Cunningham hasn't given anyone reason for optimism that he'll somehow turn the corner.

I actually think he played pretty well that season. I know everyone is looking for sack stats, but most fans are ignoring the fact that Cunningham was in a rotation that year and played the majority of his snaps in the base D, not sub. He played well all around, but has fewer opportunites and less success rushing the QB.
That is certainly a lot to build on, and I get that an apparent regression in 2011 raises doubt about progressing in 2012, but it is possible that the regression is more perceived due to scheme differences and health issues than real.
We can only wait and see.

 

[Ring 6]

Spikes, Mayo and Hightower are all much weaker against the pass than the run. They are all also large LBs, as opposed to the smaller speed guys you'd normally be looking for in the 4-3.

Wilfork is the best NT in the game.

This defense is still built for the 3-4 base, with a lot of players available to augment that in sub packages, and a couple of potential "elephant" players.

Really the 34 or 43 that we play here isn't much different.
Its just an alignment issue of sliding the line one direction and the LBs the other, and what you call the 7th guy. The responsibilities are virtually the same.
If we line up in a 43 base we will still have the same 3 DL, just now over the T,G,G instead of T,C,T and the LBs adjust accorindingly.
I agree we are best suited to the 34, but we are almost equally well suited to OUR version of the 43.

 

[BradyManny]

Not everyone will agree with your "fully committed" assessment, though I personally agree that we're moving away from a 3-4 base to more of a hybrid defense and more use of sub packages, and that this influences the kind of player BB targets. Neither Jones nor Bequette were "pure" 3-4 OLB conversion prospects - both are primarily DEs with enough athleticism to stand up at times, which is precisely what Dunlap was, and whch reportedly was one of the reasons that BB opted in favor of Cunningham instead.

Yeah I'll take back the fully committed thing. I got a little off track so far today in a few posts. But, yeah - I pretty much agree with the way you put it here.

 

[Deus Irae]

Jones & Bequette can step in much sooner and play 43DE. Trevor Scott can contribute much sooner at 43DE. Spikes, Mayo & Hightower will make a beast LB core in a 43.

What's wrong with any of that?

The sub packages being where players like Jones & co will get their time

The inability (some proven, some seen in college but not proven at the pro level) of Mayo/Spikes/Hightower to cover quality players in a 4-3

 

[BradyManny]

The sub packages being where players like Jones & co will get their time

The inability (some proven, some seen in college but not proven at the pro level) of Mayo/Spikes/Hightower to cover quality players in a 4-3

Yeah, but those three guys are still as likely to be in coverage in the 34. The guys who are affected most by 34 vs 43 debate are probably the DE/OLBs, Jones/Bequette/Scott/Ninko. And the question is, do they have the versatility to stand up and do all the things they would need to do. Can they cover? That's an unknown.

 

[Deus Irae]

Yeah, but those three guys are still as likely to be in coverage in the 34.

That's kind of the point, since it's easier to cover a smaller space than a larger one.

The guys who are affected most by 34 vs 43 debate are probably the DE/OLBs, Jones/Bequette/Scott/Ninko. And the question is, do they have the versatility to stand up and do all the things they would need to do. Can they cover? That's an unknown.

Ninkovich has been a linebacker in his time with the Patriots. The Patriots could run Ninkovich/Mayo/Spikes/Hightower in the base. When you switch out of that base, you end up with Ninkovich/Jones/Bequette/Scott as your sub group.

 

[Kontradiction]

I actually think he played pretty well that season. I know everyone is looking for sack stats, but most fans are ignoring the fact that Cunningham was in a rotation that year and played the majority of his snaps in the base D, not sub. He played well all around, but has fewer opportunites and less success rushing the QB.
That is certainly a lot to build on, and I get that an apparent regression in 2011 raises doubt about progressing in 2012, but it is possible that the regression is more perceived due to scheme differences and health issues than real.
We can only wait and see.

As I have said, I'm more than willing to take a wait and see approach. I think some are overrating his play in 2010, but it wasn't horrible. 2011 was a complete whiff for him. In all, I don't think we need him to turn the corner in order to take the next step in becoming a great defense. That's why my predicition that he won't do so isn't giving me anxiety. IMO, I think he'll be cut from the squad by the time the final cutdown rolls around. But I'd love to be proven wrong. I'm always rooting for my boys from Gainesville.

 

[Ring 6]

As I have said, I'm more than willing to take a wait and see approach. I think some are overrating his play in 2010, but it wasn't horrible. 2011 was a complete whiff for him. In all, I don't think we need him to turn the corner in order to take the next step in becoming a great defense. That's why my predicition that he won't do so isn't giving me anxiety. IMO, I think he'll be cut from the squad by the time the final cutdown rolls around. But I'd love to be proven wrong. I'm always rooting for my boys from Gainesville.

I definitely agree that he isn't critical to the success of the team because there are other players at that position who will be fine. I just think he is being written off too early.

 

[shmessy]

3-4 or 4-3 who shives a git?

The Pats will also play a 2-5 and 5-2 alot.

The Minuteman Scramble D looks designed to confuse greater football geniuses than us.

 

[Ring 6]

Yeah, but those three guys are still as likely to be in coverage in the 34. The guys who are affected most by 34 vs 43 debate are probably the DE/OLBs, Jones/Bequette/Scott/Ninko. And the question is, do they have the versatility to stand up and do all the things they would need to do. Can they cover? That's an unknown.

I think you are overestimating the differnce.

34 LDE = 43 LDE
34 NT= 43 DT
34 RDE = 43 DT

34 OLB = 43 DE

Then 34 OLB = SAM
34 ILB = MIKE
34 ILB = WILL

With very few exceptions, the personell are exactly the same.