Bedard: Pats and Welker $6 mill apart

[smg93]

2 years for $20M seems OK. Apparently the patriots are willing to guarantee only $4.5M (in addition to the $9.5M already guaranteed). Welker apparently wants all $20M guaranteed. There might be room for compromise.

As patfanken mentioned earlier, there is no real incentive for the Pats to guarantee all $20 million now since they could just use the franchise tag on him this year, wait to see how he performs and if he remains healthy, and if he passes both tests, the pats could franchise tag him again which would be approximately $11.5 million.

The pats would spend a million dollars more by tagging him twice, but it's almost like buying an insurance policy in my eyes.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

As patfanken mentioned earlier, there is no real incentive for the Pats to guarantee all $20 million now since they could just use the franchise tag on him this year, wait to see how he performs and if he remains healthy, and if he passes both tests, the pats could franchise tag him again which would be approximately $11.5 million.

The pats would spend a million dollars more by tagging him twice, but it's almost like buying an insurance policy in my eyes.

But see, there is a real incentive and it's controlling his rights for another year or two or even three at a friendlier cap number. Contracts and guaranteed money are all about balancing risk and reward, and in this case it's as if they have decided to be so risk adverse they are willing to forgo any reward. And they made that decision almost a year ago. And the fact that he was even better than he had previously been at his best last season is what makes that decision a head scratcher.

If he has another year like last year this year, then has another year closer to his prior years, then has year like his ACL rebound year...before potentially anticipating a substantially less productive year, that span is well worth a $20M investment from an overall production standpoint.

Say you did a deal for 4 times $8M (and some incentives for kicks) and guaranteed him $20M which he would see in the first 2 between signing bonus and guaranteed salary, with his guaranteed money gone thereafter you could keep him as insurance for the 3rd or even 4th year at a commensurate salary reduction or walk away and take a minimal dead cap hit. The ability to do that is their leverage against getting stiffed on the risk reward scale. Maybe the deal over time becomes 4 years $24M as his 2014 salary gets cut in half with some enhanced makeable incentives to lessen the sting and his 2015 salary gets reduced to vet minimum at a time when he won't have any options beyond take it or leave the game. Production and flexibility are supposedly the rewards you balance against risk to secure.

 

[BradyManny]

I like that players need to keep producing at a high level in order to continue to make elite money. Some continue to play well after getting big money......some do not.

Wes Welker has never made elite money, and he has been an elite receiver since Day 1 in a Patriots uniform.

And he should be paid like a top 5 player at his position, because he is one.

And like all the rest in that top 5, he deserves a deal longer than one year.

Again, the Patriots side of the equation and your likely rebuttal to this is understood. But consider it from Wes' POV.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Maybe if he caught that pass he would've caught the contract he wanted. I hope this is his last season a a Patriot. It's already bad enough that he's going to break a real champion's reception record next year. 554 catches, no rings.

EDIT: INB4 I'm personally attacked for an opinion.

You should have the intellectual honesty to post under your real name Gisele

 

[BradyManny]

Maybe if he caught that pass he would've caught the contract he wanted. I hope this is his last season a a Patriot. It's already bad enough that he's going to break a real champion's reception record next year. 554 catches, no rings.

EDIT: INB4 I'm personally attacked for an opinion.

There are no online memes or gifs capable of expressing the level of crappiness of this post.

 

[Ivan]

I was glad Welker signed the tag, however now that I have seen the attitude so many fans have against Welker and the way the team is treating him I have come to believe Deus was right, he never should have signed the tag and he should have held out. In the future I hope all their free agents bust their balls for every dime and never give a home team discount because it's abundantly clear that it is never going to be appreciated. If they don't give him at least 3 years with at least 21 million guaranteed then Welker should play the season out and refuse to sign with them again. It's a real shame they don't have more respect for a player who gives them his absolute best at all times and produces like few ever have. Much as I love the Patriots this is one of those times where I am disgusted with them.

 

[mgteich]

The open question is the value of a team option to have Welker on the team for 2013 and/or 2014.

Some think that this option isn't worth much. Some, as we do, think that this option is quite valuable. To make this work, the salaries for Year 3 and Year 4 should be relatively small. The contract should be front-loaded.

$20M guaranteed in the first 2 years seems reasonable if Welker is available to the team (at its option) for a reasonable salary for Year 3 and Year 4.

But see, there is a real incentive and it's controlling his rights for another year or two or even three at a friendlier cap number. Contracts and guaranteed money are all about balancing risk and reward, and in this case it's as if they have decided to be so risk adverse they are willing to forgo any reward. And they made that decision almost a year ago. And the fact that he was even better than he had previously been at his best last season is what makes that decision a head scratcher.

If he has another year like last year this year, then has another year closer to his prior years, then has year like his ACL rebound year...before potentially anticipating a substantially less productive year, that span is well worth a $20M investment from an overall production standpoint.

Say you did a deal for 4 times $8M (and some incentives for kicks) and guaranteed him $20M which he would see in the first 2 between signing bonus and guaranteed salary, with his guaranteed money gone thereafter you could keep him as insurance for the 3rd or even 4th year at a commensurate salary reduction or walk away and take a minimal dead cap hit. The ability to do that is their leverage against getting stiffed on the risk reward scale. Maybe the deal over time becomes 4 years $24M as his 2014 salary gets cut in half with some enhanced makeable incentives to lessen the sting and his 2015 salary gets reduced to vet minimum at a time when he won't have any options beyond take it or leave the game. Production and flexibility are supposedly the rewards you balance against risk to secure.

 

[Ivan]

You are correct. I don't think the Pats have any plan to franchise him again next season. They clearly don't think he or virtually ANY WR would be worth $12MM for a single year

I only mentioned it to make a the point that it makes no sense to give him that $21MM that most of the media jock sniffers call the "right thing", THIS year, when they have the option of doing it next year with the 2nd tag, and still have another year to make the final decision.

If Wes wants a long term deal in NE he's going have to "force" himself to accept a 100%+ pay increase and play for something in the neighborhood of $6MM/yr. BTW- I think Wes would more than make up that $6MM with off the field opportunities because he'd be playing for an elite franchise and with a HOF QB

Finally I for one do NOT expect or need Wes to remain "loyal" to anyone else but himself. However I think that in the long run, it would be better for him to remain a Patriot for the rest of his career. both for his short term football production, quality of life, and long term prospects.

I.E...The Patriots are right to play ultimate hardball but Welker should give them a huge break. That's crazy talk. Welker should go out an play because he signed the tag, but if his hammy gets tight , or he doesn't feel right he should scrub himself at every opportunity to preserve himself for the rest of his career, because if the Patriots won't give him the money up front for security then he has to protect himself. They clearly don't want him for more than a year so he should make sure he comes out of that year intact.

If Brady is watching closely he should take note and seriously consider holding out for a new deal rather than playing this one out and having them take the same stance with him they are with Welker. 125 million for five years now with 75 million guaranteed or watch from the couch. I wonder how Patriot fans would react to a player being the one playing hardball? Actually I already know.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

The open question is the value of a team option to have Welker on the team for 2013 and/or 2014.

Some think that this option isn't worth much. Some, as we do, think that this option is quite valuable. To make this work, the salaries for Year 3 and Year 4 should be relatively small. The contract should be front-loaded.

$20M guaranteed in the first 2 years seems reasonable if Welker is available to the team (at its option) for a reasonable salary for Year 3 and Year 4.

Once you're past the guaranteed money in this league the option on seeing any more is always the teams. In my example, say he got $14M this year and $8M of it was amortizable signing bonus, and then he got $6M in fully guaranteed 2013 salary (completing the guaranteed portion of his deal), then he is due $7M per in unguaranteed salary in 2014 and 2015, or less if they squeeze him to take a paycut at that time due to production dropoff or face being cut. Dead cap $2M per in those remaining years. Cap savings if cut $5M per.

His cap hits on that deal would be $8M, $8M, $9M reducible to $5.5M in 2014 if his production in 2013 or 2014 camp performance or just their read on their roster going forward justifies a 50% salary reduction to $3.5M, $9M reducible to $3M in 2015 if he by then warrants (or they simply only want him at) a vet minimum salary reduction or $2M dead cap if cut. That deal would save $5M in cap in the first two seasons alone. Which of course could be rolled over or otherwise used. Could you live with that? Can't they? I think he could. Especially if the paycuts were potentially recoupable in incentives. In which case he'd have earned them.

 

[mgteich]

OK, you have 2 votes for a 4 year deal with $20M guaranteed, yours and mine. I hope that that the team will make the offer you suggest, which should be easily be accepted by Welker.

BTW, why not $6M per year for all four years, with an $8M bonus, plus incentives if necessary to seal the deal?

Once you're past the guaranteed money in this league the option on seeing any more is always the teams. In my example, say he got $14M this year and $8M of it was amortizable signing bonus, and then he got $6M in fully guaranteed 2013 salary (completing the guaranteed portion of his deal), then he is due $7M per in unguaranteed salary in 2014 and 2015, or less if they squeeze him to take a paycut at that time due to production dropoff or face being cut. Dead cap $2M per in those remaining years. Cap savings if cut $5M per. His cap hits on that deal would be $8M, $8M, $9M reducible to $5.5M in 2014 if his production in 2013 or 2014 camp performance or just their read on their roster going forward justifies a 50% salary reduction to $3.5M, $9M reducible to $3M in 2015 if he by then warrants (or they simply only want him at) a vet minimum salary reduction or $2M dead cap if cut. That deal would save $5M in cap in the first two seasons alone. Which of course could be rolled over or otherwise used. Could you live with that? Can't they? I think he could. Especially if the paycuts were potentially recoupable in incentives. In which case he'd have earned them.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

OK, you have 2 votes for a 4 year deal with $20M guaranteed, yours and mine. I hope that that the team will make the offer you suggest, which should be easily be accepted by Welker.

BTW, why not $6M per year for all four years, with an $8M bonus, plus incentives if necessary to seal the deal?

Umm...that's what it is minus additional incentives. I have no objection to those, but he's already getting $20M guaranteed and $26M in the first 3 (can be spun as an $8.5M early AAV), so not sure you need them. He isn't a guy who needs a carrot waved under his nose incessantly. He will always perform at 110% unless he's physically unable to. And at that point incentives wouldn't make him perform any better. Better to have those to add if you find yourself wanting to ask him to take a haircut in the salary department on the backend.

 

[Deus Irae]

Just to give the full numbers, for the two franchise years, to Mo and mg

9.515
11.418

20.933

Wes Welker, Patriots reportedly face financial gap | NFL.com

 

[smg93]

OK, you have 2 votes for a 4 year deal with $20M guaranteed, yours and mine. I hope that that the team will make the offer you suggest, which should be easily be accepted by Welker.

BTW, why not $6M per year for all four years, with an $8M bonus, plus incentives if necessary to seal the deal?

I actually don't disagree with the premise of a 3 or 4 year deal with $20m guaranteed - so you actually have three votes.

My earlier post was just in reaction to the idea that 2 years and $20m guaranteed would do the trick.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Just to give the full numbers, for the two franchise years, to Mo and mg

9.515
11.418

20.933

Wes Welker, Patriots reportedly face financial gap | NFL.com

I know, I'm just rounding down for example purposes. And because I don't think Wes would balk over $933K when they are reportedly $6M apart, which could always be built in via workout bonuses if he did...

 

[Truth]

Playing football with my buddies out by the grill yesterday. One of them throws to my other friend who is about 15 yards away. He drops the pass. The guy who dropped it goes, "that was just like Welker. ****!" I facepalmed. Keep in mind this is in a state not even close to the New England area. What an embarassment he's made this franchise. One day the rest of you will understand my dislike for Welker. He's not winning this team anything.

 

[goheels22002]

Do you guys ever actually interpret numbers.

Point #1.....Welker average 150 yds/ game in the first 4 games of '11. He averaged 75 yds/game the last 12 games of the '11 regular season. Just as QBs were lighting it up to start last season, receivers also had inflated yards to start the year. Defenses caught up and Wes came back to Earth. .....Welker caught 1.25 TDs/game in the first 4 games. Wes caught .33 TDs/game the last 12 games of 2011. Notice a pattern. The fanboys clearly don't.

Point #2...Brady completed 18% of his passes to the #2 WR...Branch/Stinko. ....thats 4.5 catches out 25 completions/game...aka...1.125 catches/quarter.These catches accounted for 16% of Brady's passing yds. This number was so unacceptable to Belichick he cut Stinko, demoted Branch and his salary, signed Lloyd to a long term deal, and brought in Gafney, Stallworth, Gonzalez and a draftee. Anyone who thinks the the WR opposite Welker won't see increased production compared to last year fails to recognize the roster upheaval BB has undertaken. They also choose to ignore the number of games the #2 WR was invisible last year.

I stand by my point that Welker's stats regress significantly due to roster improvement and a more balanced approach.

You make a good point about the depth of the receiving corps, but Welker will continue to be Brady's binky in 2012.

Brady completed 401 passes in 2011 and Welker caught more than a quarter of those. No reason to think he won't catch 25% of Brady's completions again.

Welker is the most capable guy on the team at shaking himself free on every read in a progression, and Brady is still the very best at going through the progression of reads faster than any other QB. These guys were made for each other.

I agree that Welker probably will not be the #1 read on most passing downs with the talent at wideout and TE this year. But he will be #2 or #3 on every play called for somebody else which will result in 100 catches again this year.

The fact that Brady is so gifted at finding the open guy if the first option is closed off, makes Welker more valuable in New England than elsewhere. There are a few guys that could benefit from Welker's skills, but many more who could not. Rodgers, Flacco, the Mannings, Brees, Rivers, Roethlisberger and maybe Stafford make the time to find the open guy. Guys like Sanchez, Freeman, Palmer, and Vick are either ducking the pass rush or taking off to see if they can gain a few yards on their own.

Brady is the best at shifting in the pocket to avoid the rush while he reads the coverage, making Welker as important to Brady's productivity as any receiver in the NFL. If both guys stay healthy, Welker notches his 5th 100-catch season in 2012.

I still shake my head at the 2-year $16M offer. It seems uncharacteristically lazy of the Patriots to float that last year when they should have 3 years at least on the table.

 

[Ivan]

Playing football with my buddies out by the grill yesterday. One of them throws to my other friend who is about 15 yards away. He drops the pass. The guy who dropped it goes, "that was just like Welker. ****!" I facepalmed. Keep in mind this is in a state not even close to the New England area. What an embarassment he's made this franchise. One day the rest of you will understand my dislike for Welker. He's not winning this team anything.

That must be why Brady calls him "the best player on our team." The Patriots wouldn't have sniffed the Super Bowl without him.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

blah, blah....

something smells

4 career posts, and guessing from the last two (the one ones I've bothered to read) "Truth" has left 4 steaming turds

we definitely need the unlike / WTF button

 

[BradyFTW!]

Playing football with my buddies out by the grill yesterday. One of them throws to my other friend who is about 15 yards away. He drops the pass. The guy who dropped it goes, "that was just like Welker. ****!" I facepalmed. Keep in mind this is in a state not even close to the New England area. What an embarassment he's made this franchise. One day the rest of you will understand my dislike for Welker. He's not winning this team anything.

Wes has caught exactly 600 passes for the Patriots (regular season + postseason) over the past 5 years. If you want to judge his entire career on one drop, then that's your prerogative, but I hope that you don't expect anyone here to take you seriously.

 

[ausbacker]

Playing football with my buddies out by the grill yesterday. One of them throws to my other friend who is about 15 yards away. He drops the pass. The guy who dropped it goes, "that was just like Welker. ****!" I facepalmed. Keep in mind this is in a state not even close to the New England area. What an embarassment he's made this franchise. One day the rest of you will understand my dislike for Welker. He's not winning this team anything.

That's funny as I happen to hold the same position about your starting Quarterback Mark Sanchez.