Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by borg, Jul 9, 2012.
Report: Wes Welker, Patriots are $6 million apart in long-term contract talks | SI Tracking Blog
RUT RO RAGGY :bricks:
In all the rhetoric around this issue, always find comments such as this amusing..
Gives the connotation that all of this is being done under some feudal system of duress.... forced to play for 9.5 million. Welker is not a victim in this matter..
Though the article doesn't discuss contract length, guaranteeing him $21 mill seems excessive considering his age and his role going forward.
1) His 2011 stats were inflated due to the lock out/lack of defense in the league when the season opened last year. In the month of September, QBs were dialing up 300-500 yd games at will. During the first quarter of 2011, Welker amassed 40% of his yardage stats and 5 of his 9 TDs. No question Wes had a great back half of the season as well....but this leads me to point #2
2) In 2011, #2 WR Branch averaged 3.3 catches/game. #3 WR Ochocinco averaged 1 catch/game. With Lloyd on the field and competent alternatives in the bullpen (Gafney, Branch), not to mention a new OC that loves targeting WRs, not a chance in hell Welker repeats his 2011 numbers. The nonWelker WR receptions could increase 75%.
Logic dictates points #1 and #2. And my gutt tells me that McDaniels will incorporate more screen and RB pass plays as well. I also suspect BB will seek to regain the time of possession advantage by utilizing his young RBs and establishing a more consistent running game.
Bottom line. Brady has more targets and a more reliable cast to lean on. And an evolving team philosophy may balance out the offense as well. I just don't see Welker repeating his 2011 numbers...so let them revisit his contract next offseason when he is a year older with more down to Earth stats.
And lets not forget....The little guy was tackled 120 times last year....and concussions can take a player off the field for indefinite periods of time.
6/2 = 3. #compromise
had to stop after point #1.. He lead the league in catches and has a history of doing this year after year with no sign of slow down.. This isn't like he peaked one year or something..
Unfortunately, WRs can hit the age wall pretty quickly especially a WR who takes the abuse that Welker does constantly going over the middle. That is where the hesitance is to give him what he is looking for. He isn't showing signs of slowing down, but neither did Moss in 2009 (ok, maybe he did a bit the last few games).
I am not saying the Pats shouldn't lock him up (in fact, I wish they would), but they do have concerns about when Welker's body will start to break down and I think those are legitimate concerns. He could go until he is 35 or 36 or he could start to break down this season for all we know.
You would think...but I'm not sure it's just 6. Remember, Welker is on record stating that the guaranteed money decreased between their 2011 offer and his tagging. I think that's because they lost a year of amortization and they apparently weren't inclined to make that level of offer absent it. The 2/$16M in 2011 was really 3/$18.5M or an average of just over $6M per...when tacked on to the remaining season on his deal at the time. Makes a big cap hit difference when you do a deal before the old deal is over. Now whatever his deal averages is what it is so to speak... If the issues are both guaranteed money and AAV, not to mention length of deal, they might as well be light years apart. You don't easily compromise and close that many gaps in any negotiation. My gut instinct is that Wes wanted 5, would have settled for 4, and might consider 3 but that 3 would have to be at a higher average and largely guaranteed. Meanwhile the Pats seem pretty intent on not extending past 2 and not even at $8M anymore. If they go up on years and guaranteed money, the average comes down. So say you're looking at 3/$21M even with most of it guaranteed...Wes is looking at the potential to make that in 2 if he has another even top 5 season. Not even contemplating a second tag, he would get another 3 year $20M+ offer from a team desperate for his kind of slot production and have $20M+ in hand in 2012 salary and 2013 signing bonus 9 months from now. And the implicit guarantee of upwards of several million more the following season. That's kind of like waving a red flag in front of a bull. Wes believes in himself, as well he should given the way his career has unfolded. Barely an UDFA to one of the top 25 players in the game...
Anybody have any idea what WW would be looking at in the open market?
KC would be the logical choice. Something says MC would give a kidney for WW. Maybe Atlanta?
The rule of thumb on WR's is age 35 breakdown. Obviously, WW would need some adjustment.
It may not just come down to the money - I bet the Pats would rather just do a two year deal, not three. Either way, a deal get's done I believe because the Pats would save so much dough against the cap the next two years compared to tagging WW each year. Paying him him a little more than they want may be the best for both of them. I say Welker signs before the deadline.
All good points. A couple more...
- Welker's catch radius is relatively tiny compared to most other WRs, including other slot guys. That really doesn't decrease his value to the Pats (last SB aside) but it does significantly decrease his value to almost every other team. Outside of Brees and Rodgers, who is smart/instinctive enough to read defenses as well as Welker (his strength is varying routes in coverage) and who is accurate enough to hit such a small, moving target? Welker would be good with any team. He would only be break-the-bank great with a few teams.
- Welker plays in the same general area as Gronk and Hernandez. If you are going to run 2TE/1RB a majority of the time, doesn't it make sense for your WRs to spread the field rather than allow LBs and safeties to compress the middle?
I think there is still a clear role for a slot WR in this offense. Just not a $9M per year role. With the available cap space, the Pats can use Welker this year as a bridge to the next gen offense...incorporating Lloyd, expanding Hernandez, adding Vereen. If Edelperson can step up or Ebert turns into a late round find, they can fill a reduced slot role while the rest pick up Welker's production.
If Welker is looking to set a new salary standard for slot WRs, he is likely going to be disappointed. The trend to 2 TE sets has him on the wrong side of progress, his age has him on the wrong side of 30 and his skill set has him on the wrong side of the current wave of big-armed, downfield-throwing, mobile QBs. His best option is to stay in NE. He knows this. The Pats know this. It is just a matter of time before his agent and contract demands catch up.
Wes Welker from 2007 says "HI". You know. The same one that had Randy Moss, Jabar Gaffney and Donte Stallworth. Not to mention Ben Watson and a healthy Kevin Faulk. Guess what. Welker had 112 receptions that year.
Welker doesn't have to repeat his 2011 numbers, but you aren't being "logical" if you think he doesn't get 100+ receptions and over 1000 yards.
Gaffney only had 36 receptions (2.25 recepts/game) for the Pats in 2007 as the #3/#4 WRbehind Moss and Welker and Stallworth. Gaffney will now be the 5th receiving option behind Welker, Floyd, Gronkowski and Hernandez. What makes you think that having him thee will have a greater impact than he did in 2007?
The new OC isn't going to ignore Gronkowski and Hernandez. And it's Belichick's playbook with Brady adjusting the plays on the field. We, we'll hopefully see more screens, but they should be to the WRs with Gronk and Hernandez blocking..
Logic doesn't dictate point #2 as I showed.
How does Brady have a more reliable cast to lean on when you consider that Kevin Faulk is gone and he was one of the best RBs the Pats have ever had at catching the ball out of the back field. You also have Branch who turns 33 in 9 days and looked to have hit the WR wall last year. Gaffney has been gone for 4 years, is going to be 32 in December. There is no telling what he has left.
Welker missed zero time last year due to concussions so mentioning that really doesn't help you. Cause, all it would take is Brady going down and Welker wouldn't repeat his numbers.. Hell, no one is expecting him to repeat last year's numbers, but he LOGIC and history project him to get over 100 receptions and over 1000 yards. Why? Because that's what the "little guy" has done every year for the Pats except the year he was returning from his ACL injury.
Oh, while Belichick probably would like to regain the time of possession, that stems as much from the quality of the defense as it does what the offense does on the field. And there is no guarantee that Ridley, Woodhead, and Vereen will provide the "consistent running game" of which you speak. Not to mention that the O-line will have Gallery at LG instead of Mankins for at least the first part of the season. Plus there are questions concerning Vollmer's back and how Solder will hold up at LT.
Does Matt Cassell have a kidney that can play cornerback?
Welker's seen how the Patriots treat their top players at contract time, yet he was still stupid enough to sign his tender. Now, unfortunately for him, he's reaping the the rewards for that decision. All the nonsense by people trying to excuse the Patriots is just that, and it's kind of pathetic, really.
Media initially speculated $10M per based on the top outside WR's making $12-15M. The tag this year is reflective of the top ten WR salaries over the last 5 seasons and it's $9.5. Garcon got 5 times $8+ with $21M guaranteed... He's younger and an outside the numbers guy albeit never been a #1WR and his production pales in comparison, so talk about apples and organges. We know he wants more than 2 times $8. He's dreamin' if he wants 5, but he's only just turned 31 and people keep acting like he's 33 going on 35 already. I'd guesstimate if he were on the market for free he'd be looking for something in the 4 times $9M range with $20M+ guaranteed and he'd have gotten it.
Probably right about Matty, but he doesn't have much pull in KC. Poor bastid got boo'd at a celebrity baseball game there the other night... Fans there have almost irrationally hated him since the day Pioli traded for him. He's had to deal with a golf pro turned glorified OC as a HC, three additional OC's, a talented but tempermental and inconsistent diva in Bowe as his #1, the loss of a top TE who would have made the transition easier, injuries to several of the draft picks on both sides of the ball, and his own injuries not to mention getting the snot beaten out of him that first season, but in KC the fanatics are convinced it's all about him (and to a lesser extent Pioli).
So yeah, Matt would probably salivate at the prospect of hooking up with a guy he threw to for 111 receptions and 1165 yards on the fly in his first gig since HS...
Yeah, who wants a guaranteed $9M?? That's awful.
Thanks for helping to make my point about how nonsensical the defenders are.
Catch Radius? Seriously sounds like someone has been playing too much Madden. The idea that Welker's value is decreased because of his intelligence makes me laugh.. It's Welker's ability to run routes the way the QB expects him to run them that makes him so valuable.
This is a fallacy many people still cling to. Welker was lining up on outside routes last year. It's why there was such a huge spike in his production. And the times he did go underneath, that area had been cleared out by Hernandez or Gronk, allowing Welker to pile on extra yards as well.
Welker has shown he's much more than a "slot WR" in this offense and pigeon holing him there only reflects on you, not on his talent. Expanding Hernandez? The guy already got 79 passes last year. How much more expanding is there? Vereen? He's shown nothing to this point, unfortunately.
Part of your problem is that you've pigeon holed Welker as a "slot wr". He's more than that. At some point, you are going to have to admit it. He's been here 5 years and has lined up at the X,Y, and Z receiver positions. He's run the short, medium and long routes. He's averaged 110 receptions and 1221 yards despite one "sub par" year where he was coming back from an ACL and MCL tear.
The trend of 2 TE sets?? What team, other than the Patriots, consistently uses the 2 TE set in passing situations?
Wrong side of 30? I can name plenty of WRs over 30 who have been successful..
What "current wave of big-armed, downfield throwing, mobile QBs"?? You mean Tim Tebow? Or Big Ben? Peyton Manning, maybe? Drew Brees? Philip Rivers? Oh.. I know.. Eli Manning.. Matt Ryan, maybe? Colt McCoy? Matt Schaub? Ryan Fitzpatrick? Ryan Tannehill? Alex Smith?
There are only Three QBs who are in the "big-armed, downfield throwing, mobile QBs". Ben Roethlingsberger, Cam Newton and Michael Vick. Beyond those 3, the mobility is either mediocre, the arms are mediocre in strength or the accuracy down field is horrible.
Good points all around.
If Wes ends up a Patriot beyond 2012, he will have to had to compromise a decent amount from what he can get on the open market - he knows that. The Patriots know that. But, as you show, it is a complicated path to reach that compromise.
There are a lot of teams that would love to add Welker if he was on the open market. . The two you mentioned plus Tampa, Arizona, San Diego, Washington, Seattle, New Orleans, the Jets, The Phins, Ravens, The Bears, the Lions, Vikings, and Cowboys. Just to name a few.
Or it sounds like someone who consistently offers up solid football insight, in particular to the wide receiver position - as Metaphors has been doing for a while...
As for Welker's reliance on high football IQ limiting his market - the point is that he needs to find a QB with compatible intelligence to maximize his worth. It's a fair point. But I just don't know if it diminishes his value since most team's probably overestimate their QB's intelligence as it is.
Both points were specious, at best, and completely wrong at worst. If the Patriots cut loose of Welker, all 31 other teams in the league would be interested in Welker, and his value would be sky high.
I have absolutely no issue with Welker wanting to get top dollar (which frankly, it doesn't even seem like that is his priority as much as being compensated pretty fairly). I can't fathom anyone taking issue with Welker's stance thus far (I'm sure they're on here, but I've chosen to ignore them).
He's done everything the Patriots asked of him and then some - and he has not been adequately compensated at any point in his career thus far, though in the Pats defense, the contract they signed him to upon trading for him was built with increased production in mind - they just had no idea just how much more productive he'd be here.
On the other hand, how can you have issue with the Patriots setting a value on him that doesn't necessarily align with what the open market dictates? The WR market has been grossly inflated and the Patriots are not obligated to reward Welker beyond what they see fit, and they are within their rights to use the Franchise Tag as a tool to control him for another year.
It sucks for Wes, but the Patriots obligation to field the best team possible outweighs everything else. This is one negotiation where it's easy to see both sides, IMO.
Wes asking for 21M guaranteed really isn't a big deal since that is almost what he'd get by being franchised next year. (the 9.5 from this year and the 11.4 from next year). I think the sticking point continues to be the length.
I think if the Pats offers 3year/27 million with 20.5 guaranteed and a team option at 9.5 million, all would be happy.
I agree completely. But I think Metaphors analysis was still insightful analysis on Welker's game. It's just that it doesn't have practical repercussions, b/c as you say, every other team would line up whether they thought they had a Brady-like QB or not.
Yeah, it wasn't. It really, really wasn't. It was one of the weakest things he's ever posted.
It doesn't have any repercussions, because it was nonsensical. Metaphors has made bad posts before, as we all have, but that may be the worst thing he's ever written.
It seems to me that Welker's expectations are quite reasonable. If Welker has an average (for him) year next year and comes through without a serious injury, is there anyone who doesn't think the Patriots won't franchise him again? In which case the Patriots will have paid him as much guaranteed money as he is asking.
I am not even sure what kind of point you are trying to make?
Why exactly is Welker stupid for signing his tender and guarenteeing 9 mil?
He gave up some leverage sure but not really much if you consider he may not have wanted to be shipped off like Branch as an example using the Patriots treatment of top players at contract time. If his goal was just to make absolutely top dollar as if he was open market then maybe it wasn't the brightest move to sign the tender but if his goal is to maximize his total dollars while either staying here or eventually reaching FAency to make his own choice on where to play next then it was actually a no brainer to sign the tender as it gives him top dollar this year and a chance to reup with us or likely hit FAency next offseason.
Welker gave up all his leverage.
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