Bedard: Pats and Welker $6 mill apart

[borg]

Report: Wes Welker, Patriots are $6 million apart in long-term contract talks | SI Tracking Blog

 

[nashvillepatsfan]

RUT RO RAGGY :bricks:

 

[DarrylS]

In all the rhetoric around this issue, always find comments such as this amusing..

Welker would be forced to play the season under the $9.515 million franchise tag

Gives the connotation that all of this is being done under some feudal system of duress.... forced to play for 9.5 million. Welker is not a victim in this matter..

 

[borg]

Though the article doesn't discuss contract length, guaranteeing him $21 mill seems excessive considering his age and his role going forward.
Two points:
1) His 2011 stats were inflated due to the lock out/lack of defense in the league when the season opened last year. In the month of September, QBs were dialing up 300-500 yd games at will. During the first quarter of 2011, Welker amassed 40% of his yardage stats and 5 of his 9 TDs. No question Wes had a great back half of the season as well....but this leads me to point #2
2) In 2011, #2 WR Branch averaged 3.3 catches/game. #3 WR Ochocinco averaged 1 catch/game. With Lloyd on the field and competent alternatives in the bullpen (Gafney, Branch), not to mention a new OC that loves targeting WRs, not a chance in hell Welker repeats his 2011 numbers. The nonWelker WR receptions could increase 75%.

Logic dictates points #1 and #2. And my gutt tells me that McDaniels will incorporate more screen and RB pass plays as well. I also suspect BB will seek to regain the time of possession advantage by utilizing his young RBs and establishing a more consistent running game.
Bottom line. Brady has more targets and a more reliable cast to lean on. And an evolving team philosophy may balance out the offense as well. I just don't see Welker repeating his 2011 numbers...so let them revisit his contract next offseason when he is a year older with more down to Earth stats.
And lets not forget....The little guy was tackled 120 times last year....and concussions can take a player off the field for indefinite periods of time.

 

[BradyManny]

6/2 = 3. #compromise

 

[mcsully]

Though the article doesn't discuss contract length, guaranteeing him $21 mill seems excessive considering his age and his role going forward.
Two points:
1) His 2011 stats were inflated due to the lock out/lack of defense in the league when the season opened last year. In the month of September, QBs were dialing up 300-500 yd games at will. During the first quarter of 2011, Welker amassed 40% of his yardage stats and 5 of his 9 TDs. No question Wes had a great back half of the season as well....but this leads me to point #2

had to stop after point #1.. He lead the league in catches and has a history of doing this year after year with no sign of slow down.. This isn't like he peaked one year or something..

 

[Rob0729]

had to stop after point #1.. He lead the league in catches and has a history of doing this year after year with no sign of slow down.. This isn't like he peaked one year or something..

Unfortunately, WRs can hit the age wall pretty quickly especially a WR who takes the abuse that Welker does constantly going over the middle. That is where the hesitance is to give him what he is looking for. He isn't showing signs of slowing down, but neither did Moss in 2009 (ok, maybe he did a bit the last few games).

I am not saying the Pats shouldn't lock him up (in fact, I wish they would), but they do have concerns about when Welker's body will start to break down and I think those are legitimate concerns. He could go until he is 35 or 36 or he could start to break down this season for all we know.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

6/2 = 3. #compromise

You would think...but I'm not sure it's just 6. Remember, Welker is on record stating that the guaranteed money decreased between their 2011 offer and his tagging. I think that's because they lost a year of amortization and they apparently weren't inclined to make that level of offer absent it. The 2/$16M in 2011 was really 3/$18.5M or an average of just over $6M per...when tacked on to the remaining season on his deal at the time. Makes a big cap hit difference when you do a deal before the old deal is over. Now whatever his deal averages is what it is so to speak... If the issues are both guaranteed money and AAV, not to mention length of deal, they might as well be light years apart. You don't easily compromise and close that many gaps in any negotiation. My gut instinct is that Wes wanted 5, would have settled for 4, and might consider 3 but that 3 would have to be at a higher average and largely guaranteed. Meanwhile the Pats seem pretty intent on not extending past 2 and not even at $8M anymore. If they go up on years and guaranteed money, the average comes down. So say you're looking at 3/$21M even with most of it guaranteed...Wes is looking at the potential to make that in 2 if he has another even top 5 season. Not even contemplating a second tag, he would get another 3 year $20M+ offer from a team desperate for his kind of slot production and have $20M+ in hand in 2012 salary and 2013 signing bonus 9 months from now. And the implicit guarantee of upwards of several million more the following season. That's kind of like waving a red flag in front of a bull. Wes believes in himself, as well he should given the way his career has unfolded. Barely an UDFA to one of the top 25 players in the game...

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

You would think...but I'm not sure it's just 6. Remember, Welker is on record stating that the guaranteed money decreased between their 2011 offer and his tagging. I think that's because they lost a year of amortization and they apparently weren't inclined to make that level of offer absent it. The 2/$16M in 2011 was really 3/$18.5M or an average of just over $6M per...when tacked on to the remaining season on his deal at the time. Makes a big cap hit difference when you do a deal before the old deal is over. Now whatever his deal averages is what it is so to speak... If the issues are both guaranteed money and AAV, not to mention length of deal, they might as well be light years apart. You don't easily compromise and close that many gaps in any negotiation. My gut instinct is that Wes wanted 5, would have settled for 4, and might consider 3 but that 3 would have to be at a higher average and largely guaranteed. Meanwhile the Pats seem pretty intent on not extending past 2 and not even at $8M anymore. If they go up on years and guaranteed money, the average comes down. So say you're looking at 3/$21M even with most of it guaranteed...Wes is looking at the potential to make that in 2 if he has another even top 5 season. Not even contemplating a second tag, he would get another 3 year $20M+ offer from a team desperate for his kind of slot production and have $20M+ in hand in 2012 salary and 2013 signing bonus 9 months from now. And the implicit guarantee of upwards of several million more the following season. That's kind of like waving a red flag in front of a bull. Wes believes in himself, as well he should given the way his career has unfolded. Barely an UDFA to one of the top 25 players in the game...

Anybody have any idea what WW would be looking at in the open market?

KC would be the logical choice. Something says MC would give a kidney for WW. Maybe Atlanta?

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Unfortunately, WRs can hit the age wall pretty quickly especially a WR who takes the abuse that Welker does constantly going over the middle. That is where the hesitance is to give him what he is looking for. He isn't showing signs of slowing down, but neither did Moss in 2009 (ok, maybe he did a bit the last few games).

I am not saying the Pats shouldn't lock him up (in fact, I wish they would), but they do have concerns about when Welker's body will start to break down and I think those are legitimate concerns. He could go until he is 35 or 36 or he could start to break down this season for all we know.

The rule of thumb on WR's is age 35 breakdown. Obviously, WW would need some adjustment.

 

[Brady'sButtBoy]

It may not just come down to the money - I bet the Pats would rather just do a two year deal, not three. Either way, a deal get's done I believe because the Pats would save so much dough against the cap the next two years compared to tagging WW each year. Paying him him a little more than they want may be the best for both of them. I say Welker signs before the deadline.

 

[Metaphors]

Unfortunately, WRs can hit the age wall pretty quickly especially a WR who takes the abuse that Welker does constantly going over the middle. That is where the hesitance is to give him what he is looking for. He isn't showing signs of slowing down, but neither did Moss in 2009 (ok, maybe he did a bit the last few games).

I am not saying the Pats shouldn't lock him up (in fact, I wish they would), but they do have concerns about when Welker's body will start to break down and I think those are legitimate concerns. He could go until he is 35 or 36 or he could start to break down this season for all we know.

All good points. A couple more...

- Welker's catch radius is relatively tiny compared to most other WRs, including other slot guys. That really doesn't decrease his value to the Pats (last SB aside) but it does significantly decrease his value to almost every other team. Outside of Brees and Rodgers, who is smart/instinctive enough to read defenses as well as Welker (his strength is varying routes in coverage) and who is accurate enough to hit such a small, moving target? Welker would be good with any team. He would only be break-the-bank great with a few teams.

- Welker plays in the same general area as Gronk and Hernandez. If you are going to run 2TE/1RB a majority of the time, doesn't it make sense for your WRs to spread the field rather than allow LBs and safeties to compress the middle?

I think there is still a clear role for a slot WR in this offense. Just not a $9M per year role. With the available cap space, the Pats can use Welker this year as a bridge to the next gen offense...incorporating Lloyd, expanding Hernandez, adding Vereen. If Edelperson can step up or Ebert turns into a late round find, they can fill a reduced slot role while the rest pick up Welker's production.

If Welker is looking to set a new salary standard for slot WRs, he is likely going to be disappointed. The trend to 2 TE sets has him on the wrong side of progress, his age has him on the wrong side of 30 and his skill set has him on the wrong side of the current wave of big-armed, downfield-throwing, mobile QBs. His best option is to stay in NE. He knows this. The Pats know this. It is just a matter of time before his agent and contract demands catch up.

 

[DaBruinz]

Though the article doesn't discuss contract length, guaranteeing him $21 mill seems excessive considering his age and his role going forward.
Two points:
1) His 2011 stats were inflated due to the lock out/lack of defense in the league when the season opened last year. In the month of September, QBs were dialing up 300-500 yd games at will. During the first quarter of 2011, Welker amassed 40% of his yardage stats and 5 of his 9 TDs. No question Wes had a great back half of the season as well....but this leads me to point #2
2) In 2011, #2 WR Branch averaged 3.3 catches/game. #3 WR Ochocinco averaged 1 catch/game. With Lloyd on the field and competent alternatives in the bullpen (Gafney, Branch), not to mention a new OC that loves targeting WRs, not a chance in hell Welker repeats his 2011 numbers. The nonWelker WR receptions could increase 75%.

Wes Welker from 2007 says "HI". You know. The same one that had Randy Moss, Jabar Gaffney and Donte Stallworth. Not to mention Ben Watson and a healthy Kevin Faulk. Guess what. Welker had 112 receptions that year.
Welker doesn't have to repeat his 2011 numbers, but you aren't being "logical" if you think he doesn't get 100+ receptions and over 1000 yards.

Gaffney only had 36 receptions (2.25 recepts/game) for the Pats in 2007 as the #3/#4 WRbehind Moss and Welker and Stallworth. Gaffney will now be the 5th receiving option behind Welker, Floyd, Gronkowski and Hernandez. What makes you think that having him thee will have a greater impact than he did in 2007?

The new OC isn't going to ignore Gronkowski and Hernandez. And it's Belichick's playbook with Brady adjusting the plays on the field. We, we'll hopefully see more screens, but they should be to the WRs with Gronk and Hernandez blocking..

Logic dictates points #1 and #2. And my gutt tells me that McDaniels will incorporate more screen and RB pass plays as well. I also suspect BB will seek to regain the time of possession advantage by utilizing his young RBs and establishing a more consistent running game.
Bottom line. Brady has more targets and a more reliable cast to lean on. And an evolving team philosophy may balance out the offense as well. I just don't see Welker repeating his 2011 numbers...so let them revisit his contract next offseason when he is a year older with more down to Earth stats.
And lets not forget....The little guy was tackled 120 times last year....and concussions can take a player off the field for indefinite periods of time.

Logic doesn't dictate point #2 as I showed.
How does Brady have a more reliable cast to lean on when you consider that Kevin Faulk is gone and he was one of the best RBs the Pats have ever had at catching the ball out of the back field. You also have Branch who turns 33 in 9 days and looked to have hit the WR wall last year. Gaffney has been gone for 4 years, is going to be 32 in December. There is no telling what he has left.

Welker missed zero time last year due to concussions so mentioning that really doesn't help you. Cause, all it would take is Brady going down and Welker wouldn't repeat his numbers.. Hell, no one is expecting him to repeat last year's numbers, but he LOGIC and history project him to get over 100 receptions and over 1000 yards. Why? Because that's what the "little guy" has done every year for the Pats except the year he was returning from his ACL injury.

Oh, while Belichick probably would like to regain the time of possession, that stems as much from the quality of the defense as it does what the offense does on the field. And there is no guarantee that Ridley, Woodhead, and Vereen will provide the "consistent running game" of which you speak. Not to mention that the O-line will have Gallery at LG instead of Mankins for at least the first part of the season. Plus there are questions concerning Vollmer's back and how Solder will hold up at LT.

 

[goheels22002]

Anybody have any idea what WW would be looking at in the open market?

KC would be the logical choice. Something says MC would give a kidney for WW. Maybe Atlanta?

Does Matt Cassell have a kidney that can play cornerback?

 

[Deus Irae]

Welker's seen how the Patriots treat their top players at contract time, yet he was still stupid enough to sign his tender. Now, unfortunately for him, he's reaping the the rewards for that decision. All the nonsense by people trying to excuse the Patriots is just that, and it's kind of pathetic, really.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Anybody have any idea what WW would be looking at in the open market?

KC would be the logical choice. Something says MC would give a kidney for WW. Maybe Atlanta?

Media initially speculated $10M per based on the top outside WR's making $12-15M. The tag this year is reflective of the top ten WR salaries over the last 5 seasons and it's $9.5. Garcon got 5 times $8+ with $21M guaranteed... He's younger and an outside the numbers guy albeit never been a #1WR and his production pales in comparison, so talk about apples and organges. We know he wants more than 2 times $8. He's dreamin' if he wants 5, but he's only just turned 31 and people keep acting like he's 33 going on 35 already. I'd guesstimate if he were on the market for free he'd be looking for something in the 4 times $9M range with $20M+ guaranteed and he'd have gotten it.

Probably right about Matty, but he doesn't have much pull in KC. Poor bastid got boo'd at a celebrity baseball game there the other night... Fans there have almost irrationally hated him since the day Pioli traded for him. He's had to deal with a golf pro turned glorified OC as a HC, three additional OC's, a talented but tempermental and inconsistent diva in Bowe as his #1, the loss of a top TE who would have made the transition easier, injuries to several of the draft picks on both sides of the ball, and his own injuries not to mention getting the snot beaten out of him that first season, but in KC the fanatics are convinced it's all about him (and to a lesser extent Pioli).

So yeah, Matt would probably salivate at the prospect of hooking up with a guy he threw to for 111 receptions and 1165 yards on the fly in his first gig since HS...

 

[Gronkandez]

Welker's seen how the Patriots treat their top players at contract time, yet he was still stupid enough to sign his tender. Now, unfortunately for him, he's reaping the the rewards for that decision. All the nonsense by people trying to excuse the Patriots is just that, and it's kind of pathetic, really.

Yeah, who wants a guaranteed $9M?? That's awful.

 

[Deus Irae]

Yeah, who wants a guaranteed $9M?? That's awful.

Thanks for helping to make my point about how nonsensical the defenders are.

 

[DaBruinz]

All good points. A couple more...

- Welker's catch radius is relatively tiny compared to most other WRs, including other slot guys. That really doesn't decrease his value to the Pats (last SB aside) but it does significantly decrease his value to almost every other team. Outside of Brees and Rodgers, who is smart/instinctive enough to read defenses as well as Welker (his strength is varying routes in coverage) and who is accurate enough to hit such a small, moving target? Welker would be good with any team. He would only be break-the-bank great with a few teams.

Catch Radius? Seriously sounds like someone has been playing too much Madden. The idea that Welker's value is decreased because of his intelligence makes me laugh.. It's Welker's ability to run routes the way the QB expects him to run them that makes him so valuable.

- Welker plays in the same general area as Gronk and Hernandez. If you are going to run 2TE/1RB a majority of the time, doesn't it make sense for your WRs to spread the field rather than allow LBs and safeties to compress the middle?

This is a fallacy many people still cling to. Welker was lining up on outside routes last year. It's why there was such a huge spike in his production. And the times he did go underneath, that area had been cleared out by Hernandez or Gronk, allowing Welker to pile on extra yards as well.

I think there is still a clear role for a slot WR in this offense. Just not a $9M per year role. With the available cap space, the Pats can use Welker this year as a bridge to the next gen offense...incorporating Lloyd, expanding Hernandez, adding Vereen. If Edelperson can step up or Ebert turns into a late round find, they can fill a reduced slot role while the rest pick up Welker's production.

Welker has shown he's much more than a "slot WR" in this offense and pigeon holing him there only reflects on you, not on his talent. Expanding Hernandez? The guy already got 79 passes last year. How much more expanding is there? Vereen? He's shown nothing to this point, unfortunately.

If Welker is looking to set a new salary standard for slot WRs, he is likely going to be disappointed. The trend to 2 TE sets has him on the wrong side of progress, his age has him on the wrong side of 30 and his skill set has him on the wrong side of the current wave of big-armed, downfield-throwing, mobile QBs. His best option is to stay in NE. He knows this. The Pats know this. It is just a matter of time before his agent and contract demands catch up.

Part of your problem is that you've pigeon holed Welker as a "slot wr". He's more than that. At some point, you are going to have to admit it. He's been here 5 years and has lined up at the X,Y, and Z receiver positions. He's run the short, medium and long routes. He's averaged 110 receptions and 1221 yards despite one "sub par" year where he was coming back from an ACL and MCL tear.

The trend of 2 TE sets?? What team, other than the Patriots, consistently uses the 2 TE set in passing situations?

Wrong side of 30? I can name plenty of WRs over 30 who have been successful..

What "current wave of big-armed, downfield throwing, mobile QBs"?? You mean Tim Tebow? Or Big Ben? Peyton Manning, maybe? Drew Brees? Philip Rivers? Oh.. I know.. Eli Manning.. Matt Ryan, maybe? Colt McCoy? Matt Schaub? Ryan Fitzpatrick? Ryan Tannehill? Alex Smith?

There are only Three QBs who are in the "big-armed, downfield throwing, mobile QBs". Ben Roethlingsberger, Cam Newton and Michael Vick. Beyond those 3, the mobility is either mediocre, the arms are mediocre in strength or the accuracy down field is horrible.

 

[BradyManny]

Wes is looking at the potential to make that in 2 if he has another even top 5 season. Not even contemplating a second tag, he would get another 3 year $20M+ offer from a team desperate for his kind of slot production and have $20M+ in hand in 2012 salary and 2013 signing bonus 9 months from now. And the implicit guarantee of upwards of several million more the following season. That's kind of like waving a red flag in front of a bull. Wes believes in himself, as well he should given the way his career has unfolded. Barely an UDFA to one of the top 25 players in the game...

Good points all around.

If Wes ends up a Patriot beyond 2012, he will have to had to compromise a decent amount from what he can get on the open market - he knows that. The Patriots know that. But, as you show, it is a complicated path to reach that compromise.