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CLICK HERE to Register for a free account and login for a smoother ad-free experience. It's easy, and only takes a few moments.Welker would be forced to play the season under the $9.515 million franchise tag
Though the article doesn't discuss contract length, guaranteeing him $21 mill seems excessive considering his age and his role going forward.
Two points:
1) His 2011 stats were inflated due to the lock out/lack of defense in the league when the season opened last year. In the month of September, QBs were dialing up 300-500 yd games at will. During the first quarter of 2011, Welker amassed 40% of his yardage stats and 5 of his 9 TDs. No question Wes had a great back half of the season as well....but this leads me to point #2
had to stop after point #1.. He lead the league in catches and has a history of doing this year after year with no sign of slow down.. This isn't like he peaked one year or something..
6/2 = 3. #compromise
You would think...but I'm not sure it's just 6. Remember, Welker is on record stating that the guaranteed money decreased between their 2011 offer and his tagging. I think that's because they lost a year of amortization and they apparently weren't inclined to make that level of offer absent it. The 2/$16M in 2011 was really 3/$18.5M or an average of just over $6M per...when tacked on to the remaining season on his deal at the time. Makes a big cap hit difference when you do a deal before the old deal is over. Now whatever his deal averages is what it is so to speak... If the issues are both guaranteed money and AAV, not to mention length of deal, they might as well be light years apart. You don't easily compromise and close that many gaps in any negotiation. My gut instinct is that Wes wanted 5, would have settled for 4, and might consider 3 but that 3 would have to be at a higher average and largely guaranteed. Meanwhile the Pats seem pretty intent on not extending past 2 and not even at $8M anymore. If they go up on years and guaranteed money, the average comes down. So say you're looking at 3/$21M even with most of it guaranteed...Wes is looking at the potential to make that in 2 if he has another even top 5 season. Not even contemplating a second tag, he would get another 3 year $20M+ offer from a team desperate for his kind of slot production and have $20M+ in hand in 2012 salary and 2013 signing bonus 9 months from now. And the implicit guarantee of upwards of several million more the following season. That's kind of like waving a red flag in front of a bull. Wes believes in himself, as well he should given the way his career has unfolded. Barely an UDFA to one of the top 25 players in the game...
Unfortunately, WRs can hit the age wall pretty quickly especially a WR who takes the abuse that Welker does constantly going over the middle. That is where the hesitance is to give him what he is looking for. He isn't showing signs of slowing down, but neither did Moss in 2009 (ok, maybe he did a bit the last few games).
I am not saying the Pats shouldn't lock him up (in fact, I wish they would), but they do have concerns about when Welker's body will start to break down and I think those are legitimate concerns. He could go until he is 35 or 36 or he could start to break down this season for all we know.
Unfortunately, WRs can hit the age wall pretty quickly especially a WR who takes the abuse that Welker does constantly going over the middle. That is where the hesitance is to give him what he is looking for. He isn't showing signs of slowing down, but neither did Moss in 2009 (ok, maybe he did a bit the last few games).
I am not saying the Pats shouldn't lock him up (in fact, I wish they would), but they do have concerns about when Welker's body will start to break down and I think those are legitimate concerns. He could go until he is 35 or 36 or he could start to break down this season for all we know.
Though the article doesn't discuss contract length, guaranteeing him $21 mill seems excessive considering his age and his role going forward.
Two points:
1) His 2011 stats were inflated due to the lock out/lack of defense in the league when the season opened last year. In the month of September, QBs were dialing up 300-500 yd games at will. During the first quarter of 2011, Welker amassed 40% of his yardage stats and 5 of his 9 TDs. No question Wes had a great back half of the season as well....but this leads me to point #2
2) In 2011, #2 WR Branch averaged 3.3 catches/game. #3 WR Ochocinco averaged 1 catch/game. With Lloyd on the field and competent alternatives in the bullpen (Gafney, Branch), not to mention a new OC that loves targeting WRs, not a chance in hell Welker repeats his 2011 numbers. The nonWelker WR receptions could increase 75%.
Logic dictates points #1 and #2. And my gutt tells me that McDaniels will incorporate more screen and RB pass plays as well. I also suspect BB will seek to regain the time of possession advantage by utilizing his young RBs and establishing a more consistent running game.
Bottom line. Brady has more targets and a more reliable cast to lean on. And an evolving team philosophy may balance out the offense as well. I just don't see Welker repeating his 2011 numbers...so let them revisit his contract next offseason when he is a year older with more down to Earth stats.
And lets not forget....The little guy was tackled 120 times last year....and concussions can take a player off the field for indefinite periods of time.
Anybody have any idea what WW would be looking at in the open market?
KC would be the logical choice. Something says MC would give a kidney for WW. Maybe Atlanta?
Anybody have any idea what WW would be looking at in the open market?
KC would be the logical choice. Something says MC would give a kidney for WW. Maybe Atlanta?
Welker's seen how the Patriots treat their top players at contract time, yet he was still stupid enough to sign his tender. Now, unfortunately for him, he's reaping the the rewards for that decision. All the nonsense by people trying to excuse the Patriots is just that, and it's kind of pathetic, really.
Yeah, who wants a guaranteed $9M?? That's awful.
All good points. A couple more...
- Welker's catch radius is relatively tiny compared to most other WRs, including other slot guys. That really doesn't decrease his value to the Pats (last SB aside) but it does significantly decrease his value to almost every other team. Outside of Brees and Rodgers, who is smart/instinctive enough to read defenses as well as Welker (his strength is varying routes in coverage) and who is accurate enough to hit such a small, moving target? Welker would be good with any team. He would only be break-the-bank great with a few teams.
- Welker plays in the same general area as Gronk and Hernandez. If you are going to run 2TE/1RB a majority of the time, doesn't it make sense for your WRs to spread the field rather than allow LBs and safeties to compress the middle?
I think there is still a clear role for a slot WR in this offense. Just not a $9M per year role. With the available cap space, the Pats can use Welker this year as a bridge to the next gen offense...incorporating Lloyd, expanding Hernandez, adding Vereen. If Edelperson can step up or Ebert turns into a late round find, they can fill a reduced slot role while the rest pick up Welker's production.
If Welker is looking to set a new salary standard for slot WRs, he is likely going to be disappointed. The trend to 2 TE sets has him on the wrong side of progress, his age has him on the wrong side of 30 and his skill set has him on the wrong side of the current wave of big-armed, downfield-throwing, mobile QBs. His best option is to stay in NE. He knows this. The Pats know this. It is just a matter of time before his agent and contract demands catch up.
Wes is looking at the potential to make that in 2 if he has another even top 5 season. Not even contemplating a second tag, he would get another 3 year $20M+ offer from a team desperate for his kind of slot production and have $20M+ in hand in 2012 salary and 2013 signing bonus 9 months from now. And the implicit guarantee of upwards of several million more the following season. That's kind of like waving a red flag in front of a bull. Wes believes in himself, as well he should given the way his career has unfolded. Barely an UDFA to one of the top 25 players in the game...