Bedard: Pats and Welker $6 mill apart

[MoLewisrocks]

Welker gave up all his leverage.

He never had any because he made it clear all along (and if fans and media could sense it I imagine the organization was convinced of it) he wasn't holding out on the season and it was in his own best interest to not hold out on camp in case he needs another great season to make his case for 2013 and beyond and at the end of the day I think everyone who mattered knew he probably wasn't even going to hold out on OTA's because it's just the way he's wired. He's not Mankins, for all the good that did him. Still had to wait for his deal.

He's probably smart to do just what he did. Especially if nothing develops in the next week because if it doesn't it probably wasn't going to no matter what he did - kind of like Mankins situation in 2010. His next best option would have been to hold out last season...but he really couldn't for a couple of reasons... He had to prove he was all the way back and on top of a player lockout to boot. And then there is the ultimate reverse leverage, he really doesn't want to test markets and we all know that. If push comes to shove and he has to, so be it. But why do something that probably makes you borderline nauseous just thinking about it unless you come to the conclusion you have absolutely no choice whatsoever. That time won't come for Wes probably until next March if the Pats don't tender him or even call...

 

[Ivan]

A sample of the arguments used before last season:

Snake Eyes
In the Starting Line-up




Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 2,827
Posting Frequency

Re: Wes Welker Contract Talk
Something to keep in mind, if BB decides to go with 2 TE sets the need for a slot receiver diminishes greatly. With the O-line (5), QB (1), TEs(2), and RB (1) on the field you only have room for 2 WRs, what are the chances a guy whose main use is in the slot gets a lot of playing time?

Why pay a lot of money for someone who likely won’t be on the field that much?




And there are many more just like it. The fact that they were 100% wrong hasn't stopped the same people from trying to ujse the same bankrupt arguments. It's pure garbage. We saw what happens when Welker is paired with Gronk and Hernandez and it was almost unstoppable.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

I expect him to fully play out any 3 year contract, so the fact that the area of disagreement appears to be guaranteed money rather than total money is encouraging rather than discouraging IMO.

What are we guessing, 26 or 27 Million total, and the sticking point is 14.5 vs. 20.5 as a guarantee?

Time to get er done and split down the middle.

 

[Ivan]

Here's a great idea:


condon84
In the Starting Line-up




Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 3,125
Posting Frequency

Re: Wes Welker Contract Talk
I love the guy, but it's not good business to sign a WR who is 30 years old or older to a big contract. Not to mention, we already have a guy who can play the same role.

If we're gonna sign a WR to a big contract, go after a home run hitter like Santonio.

 

[BradyManny]

Nothing tremendously new, but SMY suggests there may be some momentum towards a deal, but reiterates that year #3 continues to be a sticking point.

Reason for optimism with Patriots-Welker deal? - Extra Points - Boston.com

 

[MoLewisrocks]

NFL | Report: Pats, Welker working toward extension - Rotoworld.com

Quick, someone call Floyd and suggest he look at doing that by adding a 4th year...

I know 31 is on the wrong side of 30 and all, but they act as if they had him secretly scanned and found he was genitically rigged to implode in exactly 24 months...

 

[Deus Irae]

.... I think everyone who mattered knew he probably wasn't even going to hold out on OTA's because it's just the way he's wired.

That's exactly why it was stupid of him to sign and give up the leverage.

He's not Mankins, for all the good that did him. Still had to wait for his deal...

Mankins beat the hell out of the Patriots. He beat them like nobody's ever beaten them before, or since (except, maybe, Seymour). And the shame of it is that it never had to come to that. Even after all these years, the Patriots need to learn when to step off the gas a bit.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

There are a lot of teams that would love to add Welker if he was on the open market. . The two you mentioned plus Tampa, Arizona, San Diego, Washington, Seattle, New Orleans, the Jets, The Phins, Ravens, The Bears, the Lions, Vikings, and Cowboys. Just to name a few.

The key is who can pay.

Mo looks to have the right range in numbers. That would eliminate some of the suspects above.

What's interesting is there has been zero anything on AHern. Sharing the same agent, one would think they would have to work within a slot of cap.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Quick, someone call Floyd and suggest he look at doing that by adding a 4th year...

I know 31 is on the wrong side of 30 and all, but they act as if they had him secretly scanned and found he was genitically rigged to implode in exactly 24 months...

Mo

This seems to be more of a Brady/Hernandez question vs age.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

That's exactly why it was stupid of him to sign and give up the leverage.



Mankins beat the hell out of the Patriots. He beat them like nobody's ever beaten them before, or since (except, maybe, Seymour). And the shame of it is that it never had to come to that. Even after all these years, the Patriots need to learn when to step off the gas a bit.

Logan is already on the wrong side of 30 and an ACL with 5 years remaining on his deal, some of which he may never see. His dead cap at 34 is zero...at 33 it's $4M that can be divided over two years netting $14M in cap space over the same time span. He lost potentially several million by not getting a deal done when he was 28 and amost certain to play it out instead of banking a 6 income for that season. The jury is still out on whether he beat them. If he's not here at 34 he will have netted about what they insulted him with.

 

[Deus Irae]

Logan is already on the wrong side of 30 and an ACL with 5 years remaining on his deal, some of which he may never see. His dead cap at 34 is zero...at 33 it's $4M that can be divided over two years netting $14M in cap space over the same time span. He lost potentially several million by not getting a deal done when he was 28 and amost certain to play it out instead of banking a 6 income for that season. The jury is still out on whether he beat them. If he's not here at 34 he will have netted about what they insulted him with.

He made back all the money the Patriots kept from him, and the team lost his services for about half a season. You're wrong on this Mo, sorry. Mankins gave them the woodshed treatment.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Mo

This seems to be more of a Brady/Hernandez question vs age.

I don't think so as the jury isn't entirely in on Hern yet and they were offering Wes only a short term long term a year ago when the jury was still out. And there is no guarantee they can retain Aaron anyway if Dunn chooses to play the tag semantics game.

As for Brady, the parameters are apparently set and as I figured it's not as bad as predicted...

If Brees deal averages $20M or less in new money average, Tom's extension will be a cake walk because his new money average will be just a smidge higher but will be partially spread back over two remaining seasons on a deal that previously averaged $15.6M. Ergo Tom's new deal will average somwhere around $18M against the cap over 5 years.

Times-Picayune writer: Drew Brees contract will be done in a week | National Football Post

 

[MoLewisrocks]

He made back all the money the Patriots kept from him, and the team lost his services for about half a season. You're wrong on this Mo, sorry. Mankins gave them the woodshed treatment.

They did OK that half as I recall, and off the top of my head they had been offering him a 5/$35M with $25M guaranteed, which his agent claimed was really 6/$38.5 lowering the average because they'd have retained the RFA season. Well, if he's done at 34 he will have netted $37M of his 6 year $51M deal signed a year later, and the last two years of that deal are non guaranteed salary only with little or no dead cap implications. He may yet beat them out, but to date he hasn't. And he has since suffered an ACL injury just one year into his deal.

 

[Jackson 2]

My guess is that if the Pats really wanted this to happen, it would have by now. Anything's possible, but I'd be surprised if a deal gets done. Hope I'm wrong, which wouldn't be a novel event.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

My guess is that if the Pats really wanted this to happen, it would have by now. Anything's possible, but I'd be surprised if a deal gets done. Hope I'm wrong, which wouldn't be a novel event.

Yeah, after reading Shalize's original report everyone else is tweeting reports based on, all her "league source" said is it's thought the 3rd year is as much a sticking point as guaranteed money and it's expected they will be working hard to reach a deal this week. Thought and xpected being the key aspects of the report that are being glossed over. No one has confirmed they actually are working at it...or that a third year is the sticking point.

 

[signbabybrady]

That's exactly why it was stupid of him to sign and give up the leverage.



Mankins beat the hell out of the Patriots. He beat them like nobody's ever beaten them before, or since (except, maybe, Seymour). And the shame of it is that it never had to come to that. Even after all these years, the Patriots need to learn when to step off the gas a bit.

Maybe I am making a leap but you seem to be equating Wes signing the tender to being stupid because he should instead be trying to take the Patriots to the woodshed. If Wes' priorities are to remain a Patriot and to not miss any games then there was little value to not signing the tender.

 

[Seels]

Anybody have any idea what WW would be looking at in the open market?

KC would be the logical choice. Something says MC would give a kidney for WW. Maybe Atlanta?

Roddy White is an extremely similar player, not sure hes a fit there.

 

[patfanken]

Welker's seen how the Patriots treat their top players at contract time, yet he was still stupid enough to sign his tender. Now, unfortunately for him, he's reaping the the rewards for that decision. All the nonsense by people trying to excuse the Patriots is just that, and it's kind of pathetic, really.

Yeah, DI, you tell 'em. Pay them whatever they want. The Pats are "cheap" The FO is myopic......and so on and so on....to infinity.

What a load of crap your comment was. Did someone step on your Kitty's head? Why in the world would you trot out that same old sop, when its been disproved so many times in the past. Why do you continue to ignore reality, just to come off as the board's anti-homer.

Just what "top player" have the Pats treated poorly. Off hand I can't think of a single "top player" who has left NE and justified the contract he received from his next team....not even Seymour. .......AND BTW- wouldn't you say that the Pats method of cap management has worked out so far?????

And as for Welker being stupid for signing his tender, you couldn't be more wrong. Holding out ONLY costs him money. He has ZERO leverage Do you really think that if he never played a snap this year this offense STILL wouldn't be a top 5 unit??? Sure it would.

What would be stupid is to invest $20+MM guaranteed into a small 30+ year old slot receiver who has taken the wear and tear that Welker has over the last 5 years.

That doesn't mean that Welker is not a great player, or an important one. But rather its the recognition that in the great scheme of things ONE player is only worth so much and beyond that it starts to take away from the rest of the team. For the Pats I'm guessing Welker's number is around $6MM/.yr if he wants something longer than 2 years.

He's free to think he's worth more than that, but I firmly think the Pats are very happy to pay him the $9MM this season and walk away next year. I doubt VERY much they have ANY intention of franchising him next year. Hernandez has already proven he can be very effective catching passes in the short zones, and there is no reason to think that Edelman can't be effective as well, given enough snaps at the position, not to mention the myriad of potential receivers the Pats could add next season in FA and the draft.

Its not like this team has no other receiver choices. AND WR could be the most replaceable position in the league....especially when you QB is named Brady. Yeah, DI, I'm sure Welker could have used YOUR advice.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Maybe I am making a leap but you seem to be equating Wes signing the tender to being stupid because he should instead be trying to take the Patriots to the woodshed. If Wes' priorities are to remain a Patriot and to not miss any games then there was little value to not signing the tender.

Besides, the $9 million is about or more than he has made in his career.

"Going to the woodshed" is different at 31 vs 25.

Finite timeframes are inherently a balancing act.

 

[RayClay]

If this is really about the terms for a third year, this is all but done. Welker gets the respect of a third year, the Pats grudgingly give up a third year which is largely non guaranteed, they throw all the money on a table, split it between guaranteed and non and go home.

Welker is very valuable to this team, which is why a short slot receiver is even in this position.

Welker is vastly less valuable to another team unless he has the Vulcan mind meld with an existing QB, or some team will just throw a lot of money at a name.

Deion Branch earned a lot of money from Seattle and wasn't worth half what he's worth here.

It is, therefore, in both parties interest to come to agreement.