Bedard: Pats and Welker $6 mill apart

[Deus Irae]

Maybe I am making a leap but you seem to be equating Wes signing the tender to being stupid because he should instead be trying to take the Patriots to the woodshed.

Not at all.

If Wes' priorities are to remain a Patriot and to not miss any games then there was little value to not signing the tender.

Incorrect, and this is just going around in circles. Let me pull some quotes from an earlier thread to sort of settle some of this. I'll do it in another post.

 

[Deus Irae]

A bit of what I've posted on the subject in the past:

Welker is a franchise level WR in the Patriots system. He's the best slot WR in the game, the best small space receiver in the game, and probably the best 'underneath' receiver in the game (Not including possible RB competitors in this area). He deserves to be paid accordingly. However, since he's not a 'true' WR, it's difficult to define 'accordingly' in context.

He should probably bank something in the area of Fitzgerald money (minus any age penalty), if you're basing everything on production numbers, but his uniqueness will probably end up hurting him in that department. He'll probably settle for something between $8-9 million, and he'll be a bargain at that price if the Patriots can keep it to a 3 year deal.


Just my $.02

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/900126-curious-hear-everyones-thoughts-welker-page3.html#post2969169

I don't mind the 4 years myself. I just view it as the cutoff year where "bargain" turns into "potential wasted year". Massaging the guarantees and bonuses would be more important in the 4 year deal, and the Patriots would be less likely to get a true bargain but, if the Patriots are serious about bringing in a legitimate middle-deep receiver and another receiver to prepare for Branch's retirement, Welker will be protected somewhat by having more open space underneath (which means fewer big hits), and by not being needed for as many catches overall.

Lloyd/Wallace/etc...
Gronk
Hernandez
Branch/developed WR
RB, other than Woodhead, that the team will actually throw the ball to

Put that together and I think Welker for four years is a relatively safe move, although less likely to be the bargain I was referring to.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/900126-curious-hear-everyones-thoughts-welker-page3.html#post2969182

Unless you think 8-9 million per, for 3-4 years, with something around 21+ guaranteed is some amazing win for Welker (in which case, you should really reassess how far you've gone into the tank for the team, since the 21+ is just what he'd get if franchised this year and next), I think it's safe to say that I'm not talking about a woodshed situation here.

That was a pretty interesting thread overall. Here's the link to its first page:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/900126-curious-hear-everyones-thoughts-welker.html

 

[Deus Irae]

They did OK that half as I recall, and off the top of my head they had been offering him a 5/$35M with $25M guaranteed, which his agent claimed was really 6/$38.5 lowering the average because they'd have retained the RFA season. Well, if he's done at 34 he will have netted $37M of his 6 year $51M deal signed a year later, and the last two years of that deal are non guaranteed salary only with little or no dead cap implications. He may yet beat them out, but to date he hasn't. And he has since suffered an ACL injury just one year into his deal.

He's already recouped the money, Mo, and the injury is not part of the contract, so it's meaningless to the discussion. But this is far enough afield that I'm just leaving it here. It's dead horse stuff anyway.

 

[borg]

As complete garbage goes this is as thorough as it gets. Same BS we heard before last season and we all saw how that turned out.

They should go get Chad Jackson, he's bigger and faster than Welker, and he's available for much less money. I'll bet if they gave him a chance Brady would end up calling him "the best player on our team....."

Do you guys ever actually interpret numbers.

Point #1.....Welker average 150 yds/ game in the first 4 games of '11. He averaged 75 yds/game the last 12 games of the '11 regular season. Just as QBs were lighting it up to start last season, receivers also had inflated yards to start the year. Defenses caught up and Wes came back to Earth. .....Welker caught 1.25 TDs/game in the first 4 games. Wes caught .33 TDs/game the last 12 games of 2011. Notice a pattern. The fanboys clearly don't.

Point #2...Brady completed 18% of his passes to the #2 WR...Branch/Stinko. ....thats 4.5 catches out 25 completions/game...aka...1.125 catches/quarter.These catches accounted for 16% of Brady's passing yds. This number was so unacceptable to Belichick he cut Stinko, demoted Branch and his salary, signed Lloyd to a long term deal, and brought in Gafney, Stallworth, Gonzalez and a draftee. Anyone who thinks the the WR opposite Welker won't see increased production compared to last year fails to recognize the roster upheaval BB has undertaken. They also choose to ignore the number of games the #2 WR was invisible last year.

I stand by my point that Welker's stats regress significantly due to roster improvement and a more balanced approach.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

AND WR could be the most replaceable position in the league....especially when you QB is named Brady.

This made me LOL...

 

[Metaphors]

Both points were specious, at best, and completely wrong at worst. If the Patriots cut loose of Welker, all 31 other teams in the league would be interested in Welker, and his value would be sky high.

My points:

1) Welker's reach (fingertips to fingertips) is smaller than most receivers in the league.

2) Welker is uniquely effective because of his ability to adjust his routes based on post-snap coverage.

Do you disagree with either of these points? If not factual, I find it hard to believe these points are controversial.

As for how relevant they are, that is a matter of opinion. Welker has only excelled for one team so there is little evidence how he would perform in another system with another QB. My contention is that Welker requires an extremely accurate and extremely intelligent QB to maintain this level of production. How many QB's do you think fit this description with enough certainty to give Welker the contract he seems to be looking for?

While all 31 teams would certainly be interested in Welker, would all of them give Welker a better contract than the Pats would be willing to offer? I just can't see it and that is the point. Welker/Brady production is maybe worth top dollar. Welker/Anybody-But-Brees-and-Rodgers is almost certainly not. While I can't account for teams overestimating the accuracy/smarts of their QBs, it is risky for Welker to assume the grass (and cash) will be greener in free agency.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Per PFT's sources with knowledge of the negotiations the two sides remain far apart, and per Curran talking to PFT today there have been no talks since Dunn talked to the FO casually around the time the draft picks were being signed, or in about 4-6 weeks. He says Welker remains hopeful but that's about it...

And catch radius is a funny thing, it's not just a product of long arms or fingers. Brady claims that Welker catches most everything in his general vacinity, and that's the kind of catch radius that translates for him. A guy like Ocho probably measures out with a greater potential catch radius, only historically he's only caught about 50-60% of the passes thrown in his direction. Welker is generally in the mid to upper 70's range I believe. Even when Cassel was his QB...Not quite as impressive in Miami, but still an impressive 67% in abyssmal Qb'ing circumstances.

 

[Deus Irae]

My points:

1) Welker's reach (fingertips to fingertips) is smaller than most receivers in the league.

2) Welker is uniquely effective because of his ability to adjust his routes based on post-snap coverage.

Do you disagree with either of these points? If not factual, I find it hard to believe these points are controversial.

As for how relevant they are, that is a matter of opinion. Welker has only excelled for one team so there is little evidence how he would perform in another system with another QB. My contention is that Welker requires an extremely accurate and extremely intelligent QB to maintain this level of production. How many QB's do you think fit this description with enough certainty to give Welker the contract he seems to be looking for?

While all 31 teams would certainly be interested in Welker, would all of them give Welker a better contract than the Pats would be willing to offer? I just can't see it and that is the point. Welker/Brady production is maybe worth top dollar. Welker/Anybody-But-Brees-and-Rodgers is almost certainly not. While I can't account for teams overestimating the accuracy/smarts of their QBs, it is risky for Welker to assume the grass (and cash) will be greener in free agency.

Welker's catch radius is irrelevant, which is where the specious comes in.

Your thought that Welker would be risking money in free agency is just silly. 31 teams would be thrilled to take him off the Patriots hands, and more than enough would be willing to pay Welker the cash. The notion that it would have to be all 31, instead of 10 or 20 or whatever, is also silly. There aren't 31 teams that would be willing to outbid the Patriots for Tom Brady, but do you think there would be zero if he hit the market?

And your claim to the "unique" aspect of Welker being something that's relying on his reads was killed a long time ago, by BB, who noted that the Patriots couldn't cover him when he was a Dolphin.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

As for how relevant they are, that is a matter of opinion. Welker has only excelled for one team so there is little evidence how he would perform in another system with another QB. My contention is that Welker requires an extremely accurate and extremely intelligent QB to maintain this level of production. How many QB's do you think fit this description with enough certainty to give Welker the contract he seems to be looking for?

The funny thing is that's what people used to say about Brady. In fact some still believe it. And to some extent it may be true because it would be tough for Brady to adapt to a system like they ran in Cincy when Chad was their #1 option... In order for Brady to maximize his value he requires extremely intelligent, instinctive yet disciplined and precise receivers capable of playing fast in a post snap read and react offense. And unless you haven't noticed, those guys don't grow on trees.

 

[Boomer B]

Curran on PFT said the 3rd year isn't the sticking point, Wes is fine with signing a 2 year deal. He said Wes wants $21 million guaranteed for 2 years (which is what the tag would pay him). The Pats would rather just pay the tag this year and then see if Welker is worth the $11 million next year and pay him the tag again if they think he's worth it.

If Curran is correct then this doesn't make much sense from Wes's side. Why would the Pats agree to 2 years at $21 million when they can use the tag again next year and lower their own risk if Wes gets injured or skills diminish?

Hopefully they can get something worked out. 2 years at $18.5 million or 3 years at $26 million would be fair for both sides.

 

[DaBruinz]

Do you guys ever actually interpret numbers.

Point #1.....Welker average 150 yds/ game in the first 4 games of '11. He averaged 75 yds/game the last 12 games of the '11 regular season. Just as QBs were lighting it up to start last season, receivers also had inflated yards to start the year. Defenses caught up and Wes came back to Earth. .....Welker caught 1.25 TDs/game in the first 4 games. Wes caught .33 TDs/game the last 12 games of 2011. Notice a pattern. The fanboys clearly don't.

Many people interpret the numbers. But your claim that "Defenses caught up to Welker" can be countered with the Patriots moving their focus to Gronkowski and Hernandez to keep teams guessing.

Point #2...Brady completed 18% of his passes to the #2 WR...Branch/Stinko. ....thats 4.5 catches out 25 completions/game...aka...1.125 catches/quarter.These catches accounted for 16% of Brady's passing yds. This number was so unacceptable to Belichick he cut Stinko, demoted Branch and his salary, signed Lloyd to a long term deal, and brought in Gafney, Stallworth, Gonzalez and a draftee. Anyone who thinks the the WR opposite Welker won't see increased production compared to last year fails to recognize the roster upheaval BB has undertaken. They also choose to ignore the number of games the #2 WR was invisible last year.

I stand by my point that Welker's stats regress significantly due to roster improvement and a more balanced approach.

You can stand by your point all you want, but it's not supported by logic or reality. Or do you need to be reminded of 2007 again.. BTW, these "roster improvements" consist of a WR whose best year in the system was 36 receptions, a WR who the Pats essentially benched for the guy with 36 receptions, a guy who was already cut, and a draftee.

BTW, How can you say that the Pats "demoted" Branch and his salary when his contract was up to begin with? That makes no sense.

The only person who seems to be ignoring things is you, Borg. You are ignoring valid points on Gaffney, Stallworth, Branch, etc.

You are also ignoring that Welker will continue to be a main receiver as long as Brady is there for a variety of reasons. One is that Welker is so damn consistent in his ability to get open. Another is that Welker has added to his
repertioire and is more than just a slot receiver. Until Floyd proves himself, Brady will continue to look for Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez.

Again, you offer up nothing to make anyone think that Welker can have at least 100 receptions and 1100 yards..

 

[IllegalContact]

Unless you think 8-9 million per, for 3-4 years, with something around 21+ guaranteed is some amazing win for Welker (in which case, you should really reassess how far you've gone into the tank for the team, since the 21+ is just what he'd get if franchised this year and next), I think it's safe to say that I'm not talking about a woodshed situation here.[/URL]

I would rather go 21M for 2 than 34M for 4

especially since there are others to sign (namely hernandez)

the question is also whether welker is willing to 9M for this year and risk not getting the 11M next year or anything close to what the pats are offering if his numbers take a dive which I can tell you will happen if he's on the tag come next season. The pats will be planning a 2013 without him

 

[DaBruinz]

My points:

1) Welker's reach (fingertips to fingertips) is smaller than most receivers in the league.

2) Welker is uniquely effective because of his ability to adjust his routes based on post-snap coverage.

Do you disagree with either of these points? If not factual, I find it hard to believe these points are controversial.

Welker's reach is only PART of the "catch radius". As Mo so kindly pointed out to you, Welker's actually has a very high catch %.

Welker can make the QB look better by being where the QB expects him to be, not just where the play says he should be. It's why Welker was successful with the Dolphins despite them having 5 different QBs in 2 years.

As for how relevant they are, that is a matter of opinion. Welker has only excelled for one team so there is little evidence how he would perform in another system with another QB. My contention is that Welker requires an extremely accurate and extremely intelligent QB to maintain this level of production. How many QB's do you think fit this description with enough certainty to give Welker the contract he seems to be looking for?

The opinion that Welker didn't excel for Miami is flawed. Welker had 5 different QBs throwing him the ball over his last 2 years in Miami. Yet he still managed to put up decent numbers in very limited use during the 2nd year. In his 3rd year, Welker led their team in receptions and was second on the team in yards. With 3 different QBs throwing the ball.

While all 31 teams would certainly be interested in Welker, would all of them give Welker a better contract than the Pats would be willing to offer? I just can't see it and that is the point. Welker/Brady production is maybe worth top dollar. Welker/Anybody-But-Brees-and-Rodgers is almost certainly not. While I can't account for teams overestimating the accuracy/smarts of their QBs, it is risky for Welker to assume the grass (and cash) will be greener in free agency.

What you can and can't see doesn't matter. What matters is what teams are willing to do. And, some teams have shown a propensity of shelling out top dollar for players who have been successful on other teams. I think that you would have been shocked at the contract Welker would have received if he'd hit the open Market.

 

[DaBruinz]

He made back all the money the Patriots kept from him, and the team lost his services for about half a season. You're wrong on this Mo, sorry. Mankins gave them the woodshed treatment.

Not sure how you figure Mankins "got back the money the Patriots kept from him" since, when Mankins finally signed, the first year was pro-rated to the remaining games left.

 

[DaBruinz]

If this is really about the terms for a third year, this is all but done. Welker gets the respect of a third year, the Pats grudgingly give up a third year which is largely non guaranteed, they throw all the money on a table, split it between guaranteed and non and go home.

Welker is very valuable to this team, which is why a short slot receiver is even in this position.

Welker is vastly less valuable to another team unless he has the Vulcan mind meld with an existing QB, or some team will just throw a lot of money at a name.

Deion Branch earned a lot of money from Seattle and wasn't worth half what he's worth here.

It is, therefore, in both parties interest to come to agreement.

The situations between Branch and Welker really aren't similar. In Branch, you had an oft-injured guy who was holding out while still under contract and he continued to be oft-injured in Seattle.

Welker is a guy who is tough as nails, isn't afraid to do the "heavy lifting" and will do whatever it takes for the team to win..

I disagree that Welker is less valuable to other teams because I believe that Welker is more than capable of filling in as a #2 WR on other teams and being very effective because of his work ethic and because of his ability to adjust to different QBs. One only has to look at how well he continued to play with Cassel throwing him the ball for that. Not to mention that Welker forced his way to being a goto receiver in Miami. Hence his leading that team in receptions and being second in yards, despite them going through Culpepper, Harrington, and Cleo Lemon.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I would rather go 21M for 2 than 34M for 4

especially since there are others to sign (namely hernandez)

the question is also whether welker is willing to 9M for this year and risk not getting the 11M next year or anything close to what the pats are offering if his numbers take a dive which I can tell you will happen if he's on the tag come next season. The pats will be planning a 2013 without him

Only the way NFL contracts work the only difference between 2/$21 4/$34 with $21 guaranteed is $13M in unguaranteed money and lack of cap flexibility of control of the players rights at the teams discretion. Because once the guaranteed money is accounted for teams can force players to take a paycut or be cut, and with the appropriate contract bonus structure with little dead cap consequence.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

deal will be in place within 2 weeks

 

[Boomer B]

deal will be in place within 2 weeks

From what i've read the deal has to be done by next Monday or they have to wait till next offseason to begin negotiating again.

 

[supafly]

From what i've read the deal has to be done by next Monday or they have to wait till next offseason to begin negotiating again.

deal will be in place within 2 weeks

As noted above, the problem is that it needs to be completed by July 15th (July 16th this year, due to the 15th falling on a Sunday), although I do like your sense of optimism and I hope that you're right that it gets done soon. In this case "soon" would mean within the next 6 days.

Unfortunately, I don't think there are many that share that same optimistic viewpoint. Get ready for a week long back and forth with a ton of articles and differing viewpoints, as today was just a small taste of what is likely to come by the weekend.

 

[Deus Irae]

Not sure how you figure Mankins "got back the money the Patriots kept from him" since, when Mankins finally signed, the first year was pro-rated to the remaining games left.

The money was a prorated cut from about 3 million to 1.5 million (ballparking). He made up the money the moment he signed the contract. But this is wandering afield.