There is NOTHING head scratching about the way the Pats are handling this. I read the article, and what I read was a great case on why Welker deserved every penny he was paid over the last 5 years, and why he DESERVES to be paid $9.3MM for this season.
Then either the author missed her mark or you read something and dismissed it because it didn't track with your POV, which is nothing new.
Here is the crux of our differing points of view. You clearly believe that Welker should be paid what he wants (lets assume its $21MM guaranteed, on some kind of multi-year contract), because of what he's done in the past, while I believe he should be paid for what the Pats expect he will produce in the future (and right now that is reportedly $15MM guaranteed.
No, that's not the crux of our differing POV. That's what you attempt to present the POV of everyone who disagrees with you as. I don't want to pay Welker for what he's done in the past. Hell, that would be over $10M per... While you actually do, for just a year. Because you assume he will do it again. So do I, and that is why I want to control his rights for the next 3-4 years because I believe he will continue to perform at a similar level. The reason I believe that is because of his track record to date in a variety of circumstances and the fact that at 31 he isn't as close to 34 as some seem to insist and at the end of the day guys who can mesh with Brady and truly grasp this system and all its variabled and nuances don't grow on trees.
The fact that Welker's not the kind of guy who will let big money affect his play is totally irrelevant. (though its a great character trait). The Pats are dealing with a LOT of realities in this negotiation. the reality of the possibility of a quick decline that happens to most WRs of Welker's size. The reality of the wear and tear on his body over a 9 year NFL career. The reality of how that $6MM could be used elsewhere in building the team. The reality of how a long term deal for Welker at HIS price would affect the entire salary structure of the team.
Where did you see the data on declines?... Welker has only been a starter in this league for 5-6 seasons. The team is $10M under the cap with little left to spend on this season. They are in great cap shape going forward, even with Brady's deal screaming for an extension that will only lower his cap hits going forward. They only have a handful of players signed past 2014... A long term deal for Welker gives them roster and cost certainty and cap flexibility. His replacement - who isn't signed for 2013 or beyond either unless you project the 7th round draft pick as that guy - won't play for peanuts, not if he produces even half of what Welker is capable of producing. And Hernandez, if he continues to produce may be difficult to retain for reasons that have nothing to do with Welker. He could decide that TE money doesn't approach his value. That's the reality of team structure.
Again there is NOTHING head scratching at all about how and why the Pats are approaching this negotiation. They can't afford the luxury of overpaying for past performance. Short term its emotionally satisfying. Doing the "right thing" and all that. But we've "been there and done that" back in the 90's, and it didn't work out well.
Nobody is asking them to overpay for past performance. That's just the way you choose to portray anyone who believes Welker is deserving of a long term deal at anything approaching his market value and the market value of the position, including guys who don't remotely approach his production while averaging $7M per, like Anquan Boldin in Baltimore who signed a 4/$28M deal back in 2010. And past production is factored into any signing or even drafting, that's a fact. Everything is a projection based on past performance.
No question Welker outperformed his last contract. That's why I don't have problem paying him the $9.3MM THIS year, but paying him that much and more going forward is NOT sound cap management. Even you would have to admit that.
Again, nobody including myself is advocating paying him that much and more going forward. Although if they tag him again they will for at least another season and that will pose a cap problem short term. Although it won't be one of his or Brady's making...
As far as I'm concerned you can give him any kind of LT contract. I don't care about the years. I don't care about the incentives. If he keeps playing at an equally high level as he has in the last 5 years in 2013 and beyond, I'd be happy to pay him at a high level HOWEVER as far as GUARANTEED money, I wouldn't be willing to commit beyond that $15MM that's reportedly on the table now
So what's the compromise? I think its that the Pats get their number as far as the guarantee goes, while Welker gets his number in the end IF he continues his high level of play. The end result would be a 4 year deal at around $6MM/yr that could go as high as 9MM/yr IF he hits his incentives With $15MM guaranteed and a $10MM signing bonus.
You're asking him to do something no elite play will agree to, assume all the risk. Controlling the rights of one of the leading receiver in the league and the leading receiver at his position for another 3 years is worth more than $5M. Because he stands to gain a lot more while shouldering a lot less risk if he just rolls the dice altogether. He would easily even at 32 be in line for a market 3 or even 4 deal that would guarantee him another $10M+ and implicitly guarantee him upwards of $16M more over the next 2 seasons.
If he didn't take that deal, plan B would be to have him have a great year this season and let him test the FA waters in 2013 as a 32 year old small slot receiver....and promise not to franchise him.
After this season, Welker would have made more than $28MM in his 6 years with the Pats. How much freakin' security does he NEED at this point. And as far as being "bastards" to their best players.....How DARE those bastards in the Pats front office who would insult Welker by offering him a long term deal that gives him more than 100% raise with most of it guaranteed. 
