Barking up the Wrong Tree...

[Shelterdog]

Again please read my original post. All the players I mentioned were on the board from pick 28 on to the first 10 picks in the second round. Nowhere in the post did I mention we needed to move up in the first. Also nowhere in my original post did I say I was not happy with whom we got in Solder or Ras-I. I wanted them to either pick someone at #28 or move up in the first 10 picks of the 2nd round to get one of the players I mentioned. We had the ammunition.

Let's try this again. I want you to name names about precisely which player you would have added and what you were willing to give up for them. Who should we have drafted at 28? The cost for a top ten second round pick been about a second, a third (the Mallet pick), and a fourth- would you make that deal to grab a second defensive playmaker and who would the second defensive playmaker been?

 

[Patspsycho]

I'm just glad that BB has the job security not to feel compelled to make a fan-friendly or media-friendly pick, like some other organizations do (Carolina comes to mind). I got every single pick wrong, for this past draft, but have long since ceased to question his motives. His record speaks for itself.

 

[Patspsycho]

BJGE is a good receiver?

Out of the backfield, yes. He is in the top 2 or 3, IIRC, for catch % on the team.

 

[Timbo717]

Let's try this again. I want you to name names about precisely which player you would have added and what you were willing to give up for them. Who should we have drafted at 28? The cost for a top ten second round pick been about a second, a third (the Mallet pick), and a fourth- would you make that deal to grab a second defensive playmaker and who would the second defensive playmaker been?

This is a good point on moving up in the second round, and we are assuming that there would be a team in those 9 other top second round spots(since we had one of those top ten picks) that wanted to trade down. Usually if you offer enough draft picks one of those teams will bite but that is an unknown variable to us fans.

 

[DW Toys]

I agree with the Play Makers theme, Don. I've just come to the conclusion that either trades couldn't be made to move up, or people they considered "play makers" were gone when it was their turn, OR maybe BB really thought that what they had on defense now were good enough that offensive needs trumped for getting one of the DE/OLB prospects that were there when they picked.

That means for me, the only one of the top picks I can complain about is Mallet, and that's just because of the position he plays and the very real likelihood that he's not going to help the team on the field much, over the next 4 years. And even with THAT pick, who knows what BB has planned for him. Once they get back back on the field, he might up and trade him for a 2nd next season right away...or it may take a year. who knows. Maybe they trade Brady for a basket full of draft picks to the new LA franchise in 2 years and Mallet becomes a player

Its all a mystery. But I have a theory. You can't separate the draft from FA when you are building a team. The pass rush iissue could radically change once that period has ended.

Also I think that during the run up to the draft, we fans become too invested in our favorite binkys and perceptions of player's skills. We spend a lot of time thinking about what we would do if we were in control. Its a fan's wet dream. The problem is that the "lot of time" we spend is about 1% of the time the pros take (10% for guys like Box, Dryheat, etc ) looking at these prospects. So when the draft arrives and we find out that OUR plans don't match up with BB's, its only natural that we get pissed, to various degrees. We all saw my first reaction....and it wasn't pretty.

I'm pretty confident now that regardless of what happens in FA, the defense will be better this year, and the pass rush will be better this year....as a team Now whether its a big enough improvement to take us to the next level during the playoffs remains to be seen. (BTW it should be noted that there were 17 teams in the league last season who had FEWER sacks than the Pats)

Again, Excellent post!
As I have said ad nausea, the Pass Russ should be enhanced, but the real issue last year which most of the Posters here have a hard time accepting was getting off the field on third down (last in the NFL) and 31st in the NFL in passing yards against and that was right up the middle where those yards happened. If they look at Dowling who was a pick I actually got right (yea!) as a Free Safety because he can cover and make plays, our pass rush has an extra second to make that sack.

A few items of note. Because of this weird new scenario with the CBA and no FA until after the Draft and because if they revert to 2010 rules and 6 years service, there will be only one pass rusher for the Pats to target and that is Matt Roth. Does he have more upside than Aldo Smith? I don't think so. I think you will actually see trades of roster players as much as FA picks.

I think a Manny Lawson at 6'5" and 4.3 speed with the experience that BB demands as a proven NFL player has more talent than many of these recent picks. We might have to Trade now, but is he worth it? We have picks, We have players. Perhaps Kaczur is another O Lineman need for them? He won't take a cut here. Lawson had 10.5 sacks his Sr. year but is not used that way in San Fran. He has cover skills so he is not a "rush specialist". He holds up against the run.

How about Dockett from the Cards? Would he be worth our #2 next year? He had an off year but he would be an upgrade and has pass rush ability. Trade there.

I like the idea of a Kiwanuka as well.

We have trades and some superfluous roster log jams. Use them!

Now how about this compelling move? What would kill Rex and the Jets organization more than anything? Vernon Gholson at the new starting OLB for the Pats! With all the pressure off of him as a first round pick,a different scheme and one of the best LB teachers in the sport in BB and the price will be minimal, the results could be spectacular. He has all the physical tools and he does have some NFL years albeit from the bench. How about a special project to rip the J..E..T..S.. jets,jets,jets heart out? Is he worth a shot in pre season?

DW Toys

 

[Shelterdog]

This is a good point on moving up in the second round, and we are assuming that there would be a team in those 9 other top second round spots(since we had one of those top ten picks) that wanted to trade down. Usually if you offer enough draft picks one of those teams will bite but that is an unknown variable to us fans.

We know what the cost of 36 was because Denver and SF traded-36 cost 45, 108 and 141, or 563.5 points on the trade chart. The Pats could have traded 60 (300 points), 74 (220 points) and 125 (43.5 points) for 567 points.

Maybe it's worth but there would be a real cost to moving up to draft a guy like Ayers or Reed in the second.

 

[Timbo717]

We know what the cost of 36 was because Denver and SF traded-36 cost 45, 108 and 141, or 563.5 points on the trade chart. The Pats could have traded 60 (300 points), 74 (220 points) and 125 (43.5 points) for 567 points.

Maybe it's worth but there would be a real cost to moving up to draft a guy like Ayers or Reed in the second.

Very true. Do you think that price and SF's offer would've had to go up if the Pats were making an offer similar to what you lay out above? I don't know how desperate SF was to pick Kaepernick. The only two teams I could see in between 36 and 45 that might pick a QB would've been Arizona or maybe Washington. But SF might have had a reasonable fear those teams might pick him and thus would've been willing to pay a little higher if another team was in the running to get Denver's pick.

I have no idea how those teams draft boards were and obviously we'll never know for sure, just curious as to your thoughts.

 

[Shelterdog]

Very true. Do you think that price and SF's offer would've had to go up if the Pats were making an offer similar to what you lay out above? I don't know how desperate SF was to pick Kaepernick. The only two teams I could see in between 36 and 45 that might pick a QB would've been Arizona or maybe Washington. But they might have had a reasonable fear those teams might pick him and thus would've been willing to pay a little higher if another team was in the running to get Denver's pick.

I have no idea how those teams draft boards were, just curious as to your thoughts.

I have no idea; I just know that picks 35-45 are very valuable because most teams feel they're getting one of their top fifteen or twenty guys on the cheap, and they seem to get more expensive on draft day when teams see guys they love sliding.

 

[Don_the_patfan]

Let's try this again. I want you to name names about precisely which player you would have added and what you were willing to give up for them. Who should we have drafted at 28? The cost for a top ten second round pick been about a second, a third (the Mallet pick), and a fourth- would you make that deal to grab a second defensive playmaker and who would the second defensive playmaker been?

Couldn't find any holes in what I presented so trying a different angle? I think I gave you the names of the players I liked and I would try at the very least to get a DE or OLB and you could do this without compromising your first 2 picks in Solder and Ras-I. So either #28 you pick a DE (Heyward, Wilkerson) and if you don't want to do that trade the pick like they did and move up with the Mallet( who wont see the field) pick to select an OLB and they were plenty in the first 10 picks of the 2nd round Sheard, Ayers, Carter, Brooks whomever they thought had the best chance of succeeding.

There is no denying TBC and Ninko are less then adequate and you can get a player with a higher ceiling no doubt. And this applies for DE as well. At the very least you try. God knows we have used a pick for a corner in the past 4 years some work some don't but we have at least tried there. All you got is Depth you need a starter at DE as well.

All of this is moot of course again like I stated in my original post if they go out in FA and get Cullen Jenkins and Kiwanuka who would address both DE and OLB who are much better players unlike the depth players we have.

 

[Shelterdog]

Couldn't find any holes in what I presented so trying a different angle?

No, it's the exact same angle.

The point is that you're not willing to commit to a particular player.

While this makes it easy for you to say in a year "they should have picked [Brooks/Ayers/Houston/Wilkerson/Heyward/Sheared], I knew he was the next Clay Matthews!" when you have no idea who they should have taken. If you're saying they botched it you've got to be willing to say EXACTLY which player they should have taken. It's likely that one of those eight guys is going to be pretty good but figuing out which one to take now, without the benefit of hindsight, is the whole point.

 

[plk]

Some of you seem to want Bill Belichick to make draft picks based on your perception of need even though BB does not have confidence in those picks.

Obviously, Belichick can be wrong in his assessment of a pick in either direction, but wanting him to make picks that go against his better judgment simply makes no sense.

 

[Seneschal2]

Also I think that during the run up to the draft, we fans become too invested in our favorite binkys and perceptions of player's skills. We spend a lot of time thinking about what we would do if we were in control. Its a fan's wet dream. The problem is that the "lot of time" we spend is about 1% of the time the pros take (10% for guys like Box, Dryheat, etc ) looking at these prospects. So when the draft arrives and we find out that OUR plans don't match up with BB's, its only natural that we get pissed, to various degrees. We all saw my first reaction....and it wasn't pretty.

Not we fans Ken -- just some fans. Some of us have actually learned not to have expectations -- but simply remain hopeful. Emotions are more easily curbed if we accept the FACT that BB's got a grocery list ready to shop for his planned weekly menus throughout the season. The man clips coupons, cognizant of values as he walks the aisles. And he bags his own groceries too, knowing exactly where to place the fragile items.

Our job (us fans) is to wait in the parking lot for the conscious shopper to exit, only to discover and wonder -- how the few selective/wtf items could possibly create a meal. Well, he wasn't intent on re-stocking the entire pantry...as the Pats cupboards aren't exactly bare. Plenty of leftover items from last year, some of which are seasoning nicely, and if creatively added to, will make a tasty dish to please the hungry masses.

 

[TruthSeeker]

I find it amazing how the Patriot Nation Fandom adopts a certain story line and then is upset when Bill Belichick, the ultimate realist and proponent of "...It is what it is..." refuses to go along.

We managed to convince our selves that the Patriots biggest needs were a 5 technique DE to take Richard Seymours place; and a rush 3-4 ROLB. We were upset when Belichick viewed the needs differently.

Consider that we have Four former First Round defensive linemen under contract for a 3 man line, and four more who have each found a niche that makes them uniquely valuable as situation substitution players.

You can never have enough Richard Seymours; but why do you think picking at #17 would get you a once-in-a-decade Seymour? Seymour was chosen with the 6th overall pick. Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren, Gerard Warren and Marcus Stroud were all first round DLs. Brace, Deaderick, Wright, Pryor and Love all have proven their usefulness. What was so damn urgent about picking a 3-4 Defensive End, to the exclusion of all else?

In the first 8 games of last season, playing lots of rookies and sophomores, the Pats Defense was giving up 23.5 ppg, and were dead last in sacking the QB. Over the last 8 games of the season, when they played 5 Playoff clubs including both the SB opponents, they gave up only 15.6 ppg. No Pats Super Bowl club yielded on average only 15.6 ppg. Over those last 8 games, the Pats sack rate was the second best in the league. So where is the overwhelming, desperate, urgent need for a pass rusher?

BB studied the issue, saw the misrepresentation of looking at the annual stats only, and then looked elsewhere, to help his club.

He saw an aging Offense with age and FA problems on the Offensive line. The Pats had found only one new O-line starter in 6 years. So he drafted a foundation LOT in Nate Solder 6-8 320, who is just coming into his own. Nate has even more of the rare athletic abilities than Sebastian Volmer does, who is a Probowler in his sophomore season. He also drafted a mountain of a man who was judged to be another LOT candidate, but realistically was headed to ROT or a Guard. Stephen Neal, the former All-American wrestler just retired at Right Guard. I cannot imagine a better replacement, if Herr Dr. Frankenstein was making one in his laboratory. Marcus Cannon does not resemble the typical lard-belly Guard. He has the size and athletic agility of Leonard Davis, who was a top 5 LOT pick of the Cards; and is now a permanent fixture in the massive Dallas Cowboy line.

BB noted that he had more than 6 adequate Safeties but only 4 or 5 start-able CBs. So he added another potentially good CB. You need that many, when Teams play 4 and 5 receiver sets, these days.

BB saw that his RB corps was aging too, and ready to retire. So he chose a pair of 1200 yards/year RBs, who both have the unique talent of NOT fumbling. Neither has ever fumbled, joining BJGE in that unusual ability, of both being a good runner and good receiver, yet not a fumbler.

Finally, Belichick saw that he has been gambling carrying only two QBs, even if both are good, and one is a GOAT. When presented with a Gift Horse, a First Round, potential "Franchise QB" talent in the third round, he snapped him up. This is similar to the situation and rumors that caused Dan Marino to fall to Don Shula, only more so. Shula was confident in his coaching abilities, willing to take the effort and chance with Marino; Belichick is willing to do the same with Mallett.

As far as I can see, Belichick exited this draft with the equivalent of having drafted perhaps four, 4, F-O-U-R, First Round talents in this draft, while simultaneously getting himself another First and Second Annuity next year too !!!!!

I heartily concur with Sporting News in giving him a grade of A+.

​

You almost have me convinced.

Actually, I don't get emotionally invested in the draft and fully expect the unexpected and so don't get upset no matter what happens. Although I did think that the Pepsi Light dispenser was going to be a lock in the 7th round.

 

[DW Toys]

Not we fans Ken -- just some fans. Some of us have actually learned not to have expectations -- but simply remain hopeful. Emotions are more easily curbed if we accept the FACT that BB's got a grocery list ready to shop for his planned weekly menus throughout the season. The man clips coupons, cognizant of values as he walks the aisles. And he bags his own groceries too, knowing exactly where to place the fragile items.

Our job (us fans) is to wait in the parking lot for the conscious shopper to exit, only to discover and wonder -- how the few selective/wtf items could possibly create a meal. Well, he wasn't intent on re-stocking the entire pantry...as the Pats cupboards aren't exactly bare. Plenty of leftover items from last year, some of which are seasoning nicely, and if creatively added to, will make a tasty dish to please the hungry masses.

We have to realize that BB gets full of himself sometimes and makes picks to amaze friends and colleagues. His Draft record other than one year is mediocre at best.
He has pulled some bad Trades and missed some that would help us. The Koolaid Klub here suggests that these missed picks were all part of some huge mystical plan.....Sometimes you just have to say he wiffed and go on. He does his mochs, we do ours. He says it's a crap shoot and sometimes outsmarts himself. We are right as much as he is if you view the players moched by our posters over the last few years.

If we sit and consider him as perhaps the best coach ever in the NFL and acknowledge his warts as Drafts and Media relationships We'll all be fine.

I would prefer someone else handled the Drafts for the Pats and let BB coach.

We got spoiled in one year and now if he Drafts nine punters in this Draft we would all say, he has a master plan!

Cousins, he is really not that good. He is mid pack as a talent evaluator in the Draft. I accept that. It's not a mystery. He Drafts out of fear of failure. If he doesn't like the guts it takes to go for a player unless there is 100% no downside, he'll trade out to the following year. That is the easy way out. It is harder to actually Draft a player. He more or less admitted that.

His talent is he coaches those he Drafts up to there he thinks they should be. To me it makes it tougher on BB to do it that way with a lesser talent, rather than take a better talent and teach them. Quantity over quality is his approach, that and bail out.

His big thing is "value". I laugh. He knows some of his picks have no more value than fifty guys that are on the board who are better according to scouts, GMs, scouts and experts.

He makes his Mochs like you and I. Finds a guy that he likes or has a cool name and picks him. Our 7th round pick is an example. How many were on the board with more value when the kid admitts he didn't even think he would be Drafted. So could the Pats have gotten him in FA? Absolutely. Value my ass, but he is still the best coach.
DW Toys

 

[signbabybrady]

To say that no player in this draft had a higher ceiling then TBC,NINK,STROUD, go down that line of depth you have you would be in denial.

That is faulty logic. players on our roster already would have nothing to do with what you are saying. What you have to ask yourself is was next years one and a fourth worth more than what we could have drafted at 28. So what if the kid you take at 28 is better than some guys on your roster if he isnt better than what you can get out of the pick why cash the pick in at that time why not wait for the better choice.

 

[RobertWeathers]

You almost have me convinced.

Actually, I don't get emotionally invested in the draft and fully expect the unexpected and so don't get upset no matter what happens. Although I did think that the Pepsi Light dispenser was going to be a lock in the 7th round.

Don't let him convince you. While I agree that BB did a good job picking players needed and seemingly getting them in good value slots, if the goal was to build a Super Bowl defense via this draft, he didn't get the job done.

With two picks in the first round, he could have moved up and gotten an impact prospect on the d-line AND trade up to get Solder. With two picks in the second round, he could have moved up. He chose not to. Fairley was picked at #13. Pats were #17. If you go by the draft pick value chart, that would have cost BB #17 and a 3rd rounder. Use the same formula for a OLB du jour.

Plus the defense was proven to be not ready for prime time. They will improve a little next year but with 0 sacks vs NYJ and 6 of their last 8 games vs crappy offenses padded the stats. They still let up 26 to Pitt, 28 to Indy, 28 to the NYJ and 27 to GB.

Lots of room for improvement on defense.

 

[plk]

Value my ass, but he is still the best coach.
DW Toys

It is incredible compliment to Bill Belichick as a coach that the Patriots have been, by most measures, the most successful NFL team over his tenure in spite of the fact that he is a mediocre team builder.

Imagine the success the Patriots could have had if we kept Bobby Grier.

 

[Don_the_patfan]

The point is that you're not willing to commit to a particular player.

While this makes it easy for you to say in a year "they should have picked [Brooks/Ayers/Houston/Wilkerson/Heyward/Sheared], I knew he was the next Clay Matthews!" when you have no idea who they should have taken. If you're saying they botched it you've got to be willing to say EXACTLY which player they should have taken.

Well you are missing the point. The point was not for the pats to take the player I wanted. Point was for them to grab DE or the very least the highest rated OLB on their board at that point as they have a need at that position and without compromising Solder and Ras-I picks . More then likely the pats 2nd and Mallet. Browns, Washington were game for trade backs all day.

It's likely that one of those eight guys is going to be pretty good but figuing out which one to take now, without the benefit of hindsight, is the whole point.

Well they should pick the one that they had highest on that board within that group. All I am saying is everyone here and in that building knows that the answer at OLB is not Nino or TBC if you admit and you admit that one of those guys will be pretty good why wouldn't you want your team at the very least try get who they thought had the highest chance of succeeding?

Bottom line they had a chance they refused as far as we know ( and there has been no indication they tried) to do so. We'll have to wait until alabor deal is in place and FA to finish maybe they do have a plan there.

 

[plk]

Point was for them to grab DE or the very least the highest rated OLB on their board at that point as they have a need at that position ...

Bill Belichick has commented on this issue a number of times in almost exactly the same words each time. What he has said is close to this : "If I draft a 'blank' because I need a 'blank,' and he does not work out, then I still need a ' blank' and I've wasted a draft pick."

Belichick wants to draft players that he is as sure about as he can be in a situation in which you can't be really sure about anything.

 

[ivanvamp]

BTW

With an extra 1st/2nd, the patriots have more than enough ammo to go get a playmaker.

The reality is, an immediate playmaker should be an established, experienced player.

I agree 100%. The problem is.....just who is out there that's available for a couple of high draft picks?

I have stated my desire for DeMarcus Ware. I realize he's probably unattainable. But I'd be willing to trade a 1st and 2nd round pick, and add a Meriweather too. That's an awful lot to give up for one guy, but I'd do it for Ware. I'm sure Dallas wouldn't though.

So back to reality: Who is out there that can be had? My top choices:

(1) Cullen Jenkins, DL, GB.
(2) Mathias Kiwanuka, DL, NYG.
(3) Shaun Ellis, DL, NYJ.

Kiwanuka would cost the Pats a 2nd round pick, I believe, but Jenkins and Ellis can be had for just money. I know Ellis is a bit injury-prone, but he's a really good player. Jenkins is stout against the run and is a very good pass rusher. He just turned 30 and had 7 sacks last year. Put him on the end of the 3-4 and he will demand serious attention.

I don't see any real good pass-rushing playmakers that can play OLB in a 3-4 that are available in free agency. Woodley and Hali are two guys I'd love to have, but both have been franchised.

So go hard after Jenkins and work your way down from there.