Barking up the Wrong Tree...

[Clonamery]

We have to realize that BB gets full of himself sometimes and makes picks to amaze friends and colleagues. His Draft record other than one year is mediocre at best.
He has pulled some bad Trades and missed some that would help us. The Koolaid Klub here suggests that these missed picks were all part of some huge mystical plan.....Sometimes you just have to say he wiffed and go on. He does his mochs, we do ours. He says it's a crap shoot and sometimes outsmarts himself. We are right as much as he is if you view the players moched by our posters over the last few years.

If we sit and consider him as perhaps the best coach ever in the NFL and acknowledge his warts as Drafts and Media relationships We'll all be fine.

I would prefer someone else handled the Drafts for the Pats and let BB coach.

We got spoiled in one year and now if he Drafts nine punters in this Draft we would all say, he has a master plan!

Cousins, he is really not that good. He is mid pack as a talent evaluator in the Draft. I accept that. It's not a mystery. He Drafts out of fear of failure. If he doesn't like the guts it takes to go for a player unless there is 100% no downside, he'll trade out to the following year. That is the easy way out. It is harder to actually Draft a player. He more or less admitted that.

His talent is he coaches those he Drafts up to there he thinks they should be. To me it makes it tougher on BB to do it that way with a lesser talent, rather than take a better talent and teach them. Quantity over quality is his approach, that and bail out.

His big thing is "value". I laugh. He knows some of his picks have no more value than fifty guys that are on the board who are better according to scouts, GMs, scouts and experts.

He makes his Mochs like you and I. Finds a guy that he likes or has a cool name and picks him. Our 7th round pick is an example. How many were on the board with more value when the kid admitts he didn't even think he would be Drafted. So could the Pats have gotten him in FA? Absolutely. Value my ass, but he is still the best coach.
DW Toys

Mock. Mock. Mock.

I would mock this post but it would be in vain.

 

[ivanvamp]

Don't let him convince you. While I agree that BB did a good job picking players needed and seemingly getting them in good value slots, if the goal was to build a Super Bowl defense via this draft, he didn't get the job done.

A questionable premise, to say the least. Who says that the goal was to build a SB defense "via this draft"?

Lots of room for improvement on defense.

An undebatable premise. The question is: how will the defense improve? I think it will improve in the following ways (in no particular order):

(1) Experience. They were the youngest defense in the NFL last year. The first half of the year they were, by basically any measure, awful. The second half of the year they were, by basically any measure, good. Not awesome, but good. However, "good" is a heck of a lot better than "awful". It means that they were improving. A really young, athletic defense can improve a lot simply with more experience.

(2) Better health. Adding Warren, Wright, and Bodden will be a huge boost for the defense. No doubt there will be more injuries, but hopefully not to key guys like this.

(3) A more balanced offense. They had the football for less than 29 minutes a game, meaning the defense was on the field a lot. Obviously some of that was that the D struggled to get 3rd down stops, but having a more balanced attack might allow the Pats to hold onto the ball a little more, thus keeping the defense a little fresher.

(4) Free agency. If they add a piece or two via free agency, that could improve the team. Especially if one of those pieces is Cullen Jenkins, who would fit in nicely with this 3-4 scheme (he played in one in GB).

 

[Shelterdog]

Well you are missing the point. The point was not for the pats to take the player I wanted. Point was for them to grab DE or the very least the highest rated OLB on their board at that point as they have a need at that position and without compromising Solder and Ras-I picks . More then likely the pats 2nd and Mallet. Browns, Washington were game for trade backs all day.

Your point doesn't make sense. I'm sure BB knows he has issues at DE/OLB but he still didn't think the available players were worth drafting. Why on earth should he use draft picks to get players he doesn't like instead of using them to get the guys he does like? Just so he can take an expensive flier on a guy like Brooks Reed and hope Reed happens to work out even though BB doesn't like him as a player?

 

[ivanvamp]

Your point doesn't make sense. I'm sure BB knows he has issues at DE/OLB but he still didn't think the available players were worth drafting. Why on earth should he use draft picks to get players he doesn't like instead of using them to get the guys he does like? Just so he can take an expensive flier on a guy like Brooks Reed and hope Reed happens to work out even though BB doesn't like him as a player?

Great point. IMO, it shouldn't be hard for us to understand BB's thinking. He is, I'm sure, fully aware that his team's defense could stand to improve. The draft was just one possible way of doing that, but there are others (see my post of a few minutes ago in this thread on that very topic).

If there was a player in the draft that he really wanted and felt like would be a successful player in his system...one that could really help improve the defense, he would have taken that player. But obviously he didn't feel like using a draft pick on players he wasn't sold on was worth it.

The thinking should make perfect sense to everyone on this board.

The question, however, is whether BB's evaluation of the talent he passed on is accurate. In other words, his thinking is pretty flawless....but is his *judgment* accurate? Only time will tell on that. BB makes plenty of mistakes as a GM. It's very possible, given all the possible impact defensive players that he passed up, that he missed a real gem that he could have actually had. But maybe not. And if player X does well in another team's system, it doesn't mean he would have done well in ours.

So the logic is sound....the only thing up for debate, really, is BB's judgment on the relative quality of the talent he passed up (and, of course, the talent he acquired). Time will tell on that one.

 

[RobertWeathers]

A questionable premise, to say the least. Who says that the goal was to build a SB defense "via this draft"?

I said "if" but I do think that BB prefers to develop talent on defense rather than go out and spend big money on FAs.

An undebatable premise. The question is: how will the defense improve? I think it will improve in the following ways (in no particular order):

(1) Experience. They were the youngest defense in the NFL last year. The first half of the year they were, by basically any measure, awful. The second half of the year they were, by basically any measure, good. Not awesome, but good. However, "good" is a heck of a lot better than "awful". It means that they were improving. A really young, athletic defense can improve a lot simply with more experience.

During their last 9 games they improved but still yielded a high number of points to playoff teams.

(2) Better health. Adding Warren, Wright, and Bodden will be a huge boost for the defense. No doubt there will be more injuries, but hopefully not to key guys like this.

The D will improve, but I question if it will be on the same level as the NYJ, Pitt and GB.

(3) A more balanced offense. They had the football for less than 29 minutes a game, meaning the defense was on the field a lot. Obviously some of that was that the D struggled to get 3rd down stops, but having a more balanced attack might allow the Pats to hold onto the ball a little more, thus keeping the defense a little fresher.

Sure. A greater ToP means less chances the opposing offense to score. But if you still can't stop teams on 3rd down and let up a bunch of points, it's irrelevant as you need to score quicker which takes you out of the running the football more.

(4) Free agency. If they add a piece or two via free agency, that could improve the team. Especially if one of those pieces is Cullen Jenkins, who would fit in nicely with this 3-4 scheme (he played in one in GB).

Perhaps

 

[ivanvamp]

I said "if" but I do think that BB prefers to develop talent on defense rather than go out and spend big money on FAs.

I dunno. He's added a lot of defensive players over the years here via free agency. Adalius Thomas, Burgess, Bodden, Starks, Vrabel, Colvin, Beisel, Rodney Harrison, Otis Smith, Bobby Hamilton, Rodney Bailey, Eric Warfield, and many more. Obviously, some of these guys worked out (Harrison, Vrabel, Bodden, etc.), and some didn't. But he has shown a high degree of willingness to get defensive players via free agency.

During their last 9 games they improved but still yielded a high number of points to playoff teams.

In the 2nd half of the year, here's their D's performance against playoff teams:

Opponent - pts allowed - that team's avg ppg scored during the season
- at Pit - 26 pts - 23.4 ppg
- vs Ind - 28 pts - 27.2 ppg
- vs NYJ - 3 pts - 22.9 ppg
- at Chi - 7 pts - 20.9 ppg
- vs GB - 27 pts - 24.3 ppg

Thus, they gave up an average of 18.2 ppg to 5 teams that averaged 23.7 ppg.

I'm not suggesting they were a top defense at the end of the year. I simply suggested that they showed a good deal of improvement from the first half of the year as they gained experience. Thus, it's reasonable to expect a certain amount of improvement again as they gain even more experience.

The D will improve, but I question if it will be on the same level as the NYJ, Pitt and GB.

I agree - I don't expect them to be a top 5 defense next year. But I don't think adding a Cameron Jordan would have vaulted them to that position either. I think they'll be an improved defense, maybe getting into the top 10. With the #1 offense in the league, don't you think a top 10 defense would be sufficient to do some real damage in the playoffs?

More ToP means less chances the opposing offense to score. But if you still can't stop teams on 3rd down, it's irrelevant.

It's not irrelevant. If you limit the other teams' possessions, it does, by definition, limit their ability to score.

But obviously I agree - improving their 3rd down defense is critical.

 

[RobertWeathers]

We agree on most of the other stuff so I'll offer commentary on the point below.

I dunno. He's added a lot of defensive players over the years here via free agency. Adalius Thomas, Burgess, Bodden, Starks, Vrabel, Colvin, Beisel, Rodney Harrison, Otis Smith, Bobby Hamilton, Rodney Bailey, Eric Warfield, and many more. Obviously, some of these guys worked out (Harrison, Vrabel, Bodden, etc.), and some didn't. But he has shown a high degree of willingness to get defensive players via free agency.

No question BB is willing to add FAs to the system. Now, I'll contradict what I said earlier by saying that in some positions (see OLB) a vet might be more prepared to contribute than a 1st year player. But overall, I do think he'd prefer to develop the kid or add a mid-range FA than break the bank. With that said, if Lawrence Taylor was a FA, he'd break the bank.

 

[E Belichick Unum]

I find it amazing how the Patriot Nation Fandom adopts a certain story line and then is upset when Bill Belichick, the ultimate realist and proponent of "...It is what it is..." refuses to go along.

We managed to convince our selves that the Patriots biggest needs were a 5 technique DE to take Richard Seymours place; and a rush 3-4 ROLB. We were upset when Belichick viewed the needs differently.

Consider that we have Four former First Round defensive linemen under contract for a 3 man line, and four more who have each found a niche that makes them uniquely valuable as situation substitution players.

You can never have enough Richard Seymours; but why do you think picking at #17 would get you a once-in-a-decade Seymour? Seymour was chosen with the 6th overall pick. Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren, Gerard Warren and Marcus Stroud were all first round DLs. Brace, Deaderick, Wright, Pryor and Love all have proven their usefulness. What was so damn urgent about picking a 3-4 Defensive End, to the exclusion of all else?

In the first 8 games of last season, playing lots of rookies and sophomores, the Pats Defense was giving up 23.5 ppg, and were dead last in sacking the QB. Over the last 8 games of the season, when they played 5 Playoff clubs including both the SB opponents, they gave up only 15.6 ppg. No Pats Super Bowl club yielded on average only 15.6 ppg. Over those last 8 games, the Pats sack rate was the second best in the league. So where is the overwhelming, desperate, urgent need for a pass rusher?

BB studied the issue, saw the misrepresentation of looking at the annual stats only, and then looked elsewhere, to help his club.

He saw an aging Offense with age and FA problems on the Offensive line. The Pats had found only one new O-line starter in 6 years. So he drafted a foundation LOT in Nate Solder 6-8 320, who is just coming into his own. Nate has even more of the rare athletic abilities than Sebastian Volmer does, who is a Probowler in his sophomore season. He also drafted a mountain of a man who was judged to be another LOT candidate, but realistically was headed to ROT or a Guard. Stephen Neal, the former All-American wrestler just retired at Right Guard. I cannot imagine a better replacement, if Herr Dr. Frankenstein was making one in his laboratory. Marcus Cannon does not resemble the typical lard-belly Guard. He has the size and athletic agility of Leonard Davis, who was a top 5 LOT pick of the Cards; and is now a permanent fixture in the massive Dallas Cowboy line.

BB noted that he had more than 6 adequate Safeties but only 4 or 5 start-able CBs. So he added another potentially good CB. You need that many, when Teams play 4 and 5 receiver sets, these days.

BB saw that his RB corps was aging too, and ready to retire. So he chose a pair of 1200 yards/year RBs, who both have the unique talent of NOT fumbling. Neither has ever fumbled, joining BJGE in that unusual ability, of both being a good runner and good receiver, yet not a fumbler.

Finally, Belichick saw that he has been gambling carrying only two QBs, even if both are good, and one is a GOAT. When presented with a Gift Horse, a First Round, potential "Franchise QB" talent in the third round, he snapped him up. This is similar to the situation and rumors that caused Dan Marino to fall to Don Shula, only more so. Shula was confident in his coaching abilities, willing to take the effort and chance with Marino; Belichick is willing to do the same with Mallett.

As far as I can see, Belichick exited this draft with the equivalent of having drafted perhaps four, 4, F-O-U-R, First Round talents in this draft, while simultaneously getting himself another First and Second Annuity next year too !!!!!

I heartily concur with Sporting News in giving him a grade of A+.

​

I have to disagree, totally. The most pressing issue that the Patriots had to address in the draft was their pass rush, and they didn't. Their offensive line, in theory, was going to be fine with all starters returning. Their defensive backfield was going to be much better with the return on Bodden. Running back was going to be an issue, but BB must have thoght that two OK backs will do what one very good back could have done.

The Patriots will win next season, and make the playoffs, but without a pass rush will lose again in the playoffs/

 

[Dagg]

I never thought we would go DE or DL I think we are ok there do we have a star ..no..but we are "solid".

I think everyone here saw the HUGE gaping hole at OLB. We dont have anyone that can opressure the QB at OLB on the roster. That was the big need wether it be a College 4-3DE converted (which many are and can be) but not a real 3-4 DE. Why this was not addresses I have no idea.

We all knew we needed OL help and we addressed that Im ok with it. The big need there was really a G in my opinion and we could have gone olb at 17 and then addressed gaurd and Im thinking Im not alone here.

RB was a need, I wanted Leshoure other guys wanted the kid from Bama. We took 2 of them which is a questionable move. I thought the need was greater for a Big back as we have pretty good options at 3rd down rb already sort of puzzling.

WR - Deep threat not addressed, I thought this was a minor need, maybve a flyer on a burner with a bevy of round 2 picks maybe the kid from MD was a fit.

QB nobody saw that coming, dont hate the move dont love it either, the kid hangs out with Jon Daly nuff said there....

I love CBs and you can never have to many so Im ok with that pick as well. I love Bodden and Mccourty so the rich got richer. I think the issue was our saftey play last year but maybe BB has other ideas there.

Again with no FA hard to guess what we might do there.

 

[Shelterdog]

I have to disagree, totally. The most pressing issue that the Patriots had to address in the draft was their pass rush, and they didn't. Their offensive line, in theory, was going to be fine with all starters returning. Their defensive backfield was going to be much better with the return on Bodden. Running back was going to be an issue, but BB must have thoght that two OK backs will do what one very good back could have done.

The Patriots will win next season, and make the playoffs, but without a pass rush will lose again in the playoffs/

All their oline except for Neal (retired), Light (free agent looking for his last big contract ) and possibly Mankins (unhappy dude with a franchise tag and who knows if those are around in the next labor deal).

 

[ivanvamp]

I have to disagree, totally. The most pressing issue that the Patriots had to address in the draft was their pass rush, and they didn't.

The Patriots will win next season, and make the playoffs, but without a pass rush will lose again in the playoffs/

Green Bay's last two playoff games:

at Chi: 2 sacks, 6 QB hits, W 21-14
vs Pit: 0 sacks, 8 QB hits, W 31-25

Average game: 1 sack, 7 QB hits, 19.5 pts allowed.

They got decent pressure in the NFC Championship Game and the Super Bowl, but really nothing special. And yet they won a SB title.

I'm not suggesting a pass rush isn't important. I'm saying that you can win an individual playoff game without a stellar pass rush. Green Bay's pass rush in last year's SB wasn't stellar.

Moreover, the Pats *do* have a pretty decent pass rush, even without an individual stud pass rusher. They finished #14 in the NFL in sacks last year and, I think, #2 in the NFL in sacks the last half of the season. They don't have a bad pass rush. They just don't have a dominant one.

 

[Triple-T]

We have to realize that BB gets full of himself sometimes and makes picks to amaze friends and colleagues. His Draft record other than one year is mediocre at best.

If we sit and consider him as perhaps the best coach ever in the NFL and acknowledge his warts as Drafts and Media relationships We'll all be fine.

I would prefer someone else handled the Drafts for the Pats and let BB coach.

Cousins, he is really not that good. He is mid pack as a talent evaluator in the Draft.

Ok. you've mentioned in another thread that the Packers are a good drafting team. If you saw my response, you'd see that they are not better. Name one or two others who you think are better and I'll show you the same. You can say he is not flawless, but to say he is middle of the pack, you better have some damn good examples of who are better. Time to put up or shut up.

 

[plk]

It's very possible, given all the possible impact defensive players that he passed up, that he missed a real gem that he could have actually had.

A real gem that is missed in the draft is remembered for years. The numerous cubic zirconia that appear in mock drafts but are avoided are quickly forgotten.

 

[E Belichick Unum]

All their oline except for Neal (retired), Light (free agent looking for his last big contract ) and possibly Mankins (unhappy dude with a franchise tag and who knows if those are around in the next labor deal).

Those are easy to fix. Neal was out for most of the season anyway, Light is a contract away from coming back. He is 30 something left tackle who will not demand a huge payday on the open market. Should be an easy sign. Mankins is harder to sign, but he is the Patriots property as of right now, and I expect it to stay that way next year. Besides, if the Pats are willing to invest $10M in a one year deal, a multi year deal should be fairly easy to hammer out.

The O Line was solveable, the pass rush isn't without bringing in somebody. Without free agency the only way is the draft, and BB failed to do that.

 

[E Belichick Unum]

Green Bay's last two playoff games:

at Chi: 2 sacks, 6 QB hits, W 21-14
vs Pit: 0 sacks, 8 QB hits, W 31-25

Average game: 1 sack, 7 QB hits, 19.5 pts allowed.

They got decent pressure in the NFC Championship Game and the Super Bowl, but really nothing special. And yet they won a SB title.

I'm not suggesting a pass rush isn't important. I'm saying that you can win an individual playoff game without a stellar pass rush. Green Bay's pass rush in last year's SB wasn't stellar.

Moreover, the Pats *do* have a pretty decent pass rush, even without an individual stud pass rusher. They finished #14 in the NFL in sacks last year and, I think, #2 in the NFL in sacks the last half of the season. They don't have a bad pass rush. They just don't have a dominant one.

They cannot apply pressure on third down with the game on the line, it really is as simple as that. Look what happened when Cunningham applied just a little pressure onto Manning, an INT, but that didn't happen very often and almost never when it was needed.

Their pass rush sucks! They have to scheme to apply pressure and they can't scheme well enough late in games. Some of that is the fact that they do OJT for the defensive coordinator, but personel is what makes the difference and theirs just isn't that good.

 

[patfanken]

All their oline except for Neal (retired), Light (free agent looking for his last big contract ) and possibly Mankins (unhappy dude with a franchise tag and who knows if those are around in the next labor deal).

can we cease the Mankins is on the verge of another hold out" talk. That IS NOT going to happen. He has 10+MM dollars ON THE TABLE. He is not going to walk away from that. For 2011 at least, the issue of who is going to play LG is NOT an issue. Please don't keep treating it like it was. BTW this isn't just directed at you, Shelterdog, but everyone who keeps bringing it up. Its not an issue.

Right now the only issue on the OL is who is going to be at RG. And we already know that, at worst, Dan Connolly can do a very adequate job at the position. The only question is if some combination of Light, Kazcur, or Cannon can do it better.

 

[Shelterdog]

Those are easy to fix. Neal was out for most of the season anyway, Light is a contract away from coming back. He is 30 something left tackle who will not demand a huge payday on the open market. Should be an easy sign. Mankins is harder to sign, but he is the Patriots property as of right now, and I expect it to stay that way next year. Besides, if the Pats are willing to invest $10M in a one year deal, a multi year deal should be fairly easy to hammer out.

The O Line was solveable, the pass rush isn't without bringing in somebody. Without free agency the only way is the draft, and BB failed to do that.

I think Light will be fairly expensive - $5 million or so a year for two to three year. Is using the number 17 pick on DE/OLB and $5 million (or whatever the final contract is) on Light (and deferring rebuilding the line another year) a better use of money than using the 17 pick on Solder and the Light million elsewhere? That's a pivotal question.

I prefer rebuilding the line before it's too late but it's obviously open for debate.

 

[Shelterdog]

can we cease the Mankins is on the verge of another hold out" talk. That IS NOT going to happen. He has 10+MM dollars ON THE TABLE. He is not going to walk away from that. For 2011 at least, the issue of who is going to play LG is NOT an issue. Please don't keep treating it like it was. BTW this isn't just directed at you, Shelterdog, but everyone who keeps bringing it up. Its not an issue.

Right now the only issue on the OL is who is going to be at RG. And we already know that, at worst, Dan Connolly can do a very adequate job at the position. The only question is if some combination of Light, Kazcur, or Cannon can do it better.

I pretty much agree with you.

Assuming there's football I think there's an 80% chance Mankins plays for the Pats (there's about a 15 percent chance he pulls a Branch and forces a trade; a 4.999 percent chance there's no franchise tag in the next deal and he's a free agent, and a .001 percent chance he holds out-he didn't hold out for 2 million bucks so why would he hold out for 10+ million.)

EDIT: It's a much tougher question on whether he plays for the Pats in 2012. That's probably fifty fifty. Since offensive lines take years to build you have to be thinking about interior line help now, which is what they did with Cannon.

 

[patfanken]

They cannot apply pressure on third down with the game on the line, it really is as simple as that. Look what happened when Cunningham applied just a little pressure onto Manning, an INT, but that didn't happen very often and almost never when it was needed.

Their pass rush sucks! They have to scheme to apply pressure and they can't scheme well enough late in games. Some of that is the fact that they do OJT for the defensive coordinator, but personel is what makes the difference and theirs just isn't that good.

Seems like you are practicing your hyperbole early this year. Granted the Pass rush isn't as good as the elite teams,.but it got better as the year went on. It ended up as the 14th best in sacks only 14 fewer than the top team in the league. Certainly it can be improved, but there were 17 teams who had fewer sacks. Lets try and keep it in perspective a little.

 

[Patspsycho]

can we cease the Mankins is on the verge of another hold out" talk. That IS NOT going to happen. He has 10+MM dollars ON THE TABLE. He is not going to walk away from that. For 2011 at least, the issue of who is going to play LG is NOT an issue. Please don't keep treating it like it was. BTW this isn't just directed at you, Shelterdog, but everyone who keeps bringing it up. Its not an issue.

Right now the only issue on the OL is who is going to be at RG. And we already know that, at worst, Dan Connolly can do a very adequate job at the position. The only question is if some combination of Light, Kazcur, or Cannon can do it better.

He can and he will. Mankins is financially set for life. He has been very shrewd with his finances and has indicated that he is a man of principles and will walk out if he feels he is disrespected.