Samuel's first three years, expressed as "passes defensed," may tell us more than the Sportscenter hilite reel having to do with interceptions. INTs can be game-changing events, but they can also happen for reasons not related to coverage skills. Also, 10 INTs in a season is considered good... so that means you actually "make a play" between once a game and once every two games? No way.
It's really hard to get stats like "did they throw at your side of the field," etc., but even if it wasn't, it wouldn't be reliable, because you have to adjust for who's across from you. You could be great, but play next to Deion Sanders, and voila, everybody throws to your side of the field... that's why I like PDs as an indicator (that's the number of times you break up the play before the receiver gets the ball.) Anyway...
PD
04 12
05 16
06 24
Or, you can look at INTs...
04 1
05 3
06 10
Because of the low frequency of INTs, it looks flukier. But I would say the PD stats look like a developing star, not a fluke.
He's also making a ton of tackles, just like Law use to, 60 last year. Everybody always says a CB making a lot of tackles is a bad thing, because that means someone caught a ball. Well, yeah, pretty much. But when you're not playing press coverage every down, it's expected you will sometimes give up short routes to not get burned on the long ones. Anybody can make the tackle on any play, beyond that... of course, the majority will be a guy tackling his man, after that man caught the ball. So anyway, his tackles have increased from 44 to 60 in the same year in which his INTs increased from 3 to 10. You might just conclude he's trying to make plays sometimes, missing, but keeping his head enough to make the tackle. Maybe that's reading too much in.
Anyway, the point is, he's trending upward in every way you can statistically measure.
Scott Pioli and BB have these statistics, of course. They have miles of game tape. They have intangible memories of being there, and BB has knowledge of skills, points he's worked on, hundreds of practices, etc.
And they came up with a value for him.
Asante has his memories of some moments of glory, some headlines, all those points he worked on, all those hours of practices, and surprise, surprise, with his agent, he's come up with a value for himself.
Then there are items such as deal structure noted above.
It's a matter of whether Pats' Value + intangible wiggling = Asante's self-assessment.
But if it's pure market value? The Pats are 1 of 32 teams. Odds are 32 to 1 against them placing the highest value on Asante. Luckily, it's going to take more than a hair's difference to move most guys... so we would only have to be in the top tier of teams, you would think, in terms of our belief in a given player. Still call it 8 to 1 against.
In other words, take the best deal the market could conceivably give you, and most times that means you leave your original team. "Home Town Discount" is the delta between what your own team pays, and the high offer on the market. If the delta is not significant (say, less than $500K per year,) you may consider sticking for the ring, Asante.
Just one fan's opinion.
PFnV