Are we missing the fact that Safety is a major issue this year?

[VJCPatriot]

Cousin, You don't get the point I am making. We have nine Defensive ends on the roster on two Nose Tackles. Love was mediocre at best. I stand by my statement. We need another NT that has some talent to play the inside when VW needs a blow or when ie is moved outside.

9 scrubs are still 9 scrubs. What does that prove? Did you even look at the decline in overall tackle numbers from the DL? The only guy cat DE oming back who will be a solid starter when healthy is Ty Warren. Brace was supposed to be drafted to relieve Wilfork, but Wilfork had to play out of position because our DEs sucked so badly once Warren went down.

 

[peterforpats]

to paraphrase- IT'S THE LINE,STUPID! fotball has and will always be built from both lines out. improve those and the rest will follow.

 

[bucky]

There appeared to me to be a much greater than usual focus on run support among the safeties that, I believe, hampered our coverage. We faced a lot of strong running teams and RBs this season, AND, our D-line was a sieve.

While I agree that Butler and Willhite got less PT due to their tackling issues, I don't necessarily agree with your conclusion. Stopping the run is not only on the DL. It's on all 11 players. The issue with tackling was widespread - Guyton, Nink and TBC all had their problems, as of course does Merriweather. And it showed up more in the short passing game than in the run game.

The Pats' defensive problem isn't as simple as you would make it out to be - their DL was bad against the run. Fact of the matter is that when they put in their run stoppers - Brace, Cunningham, Wilfork, Spikes, et al - they did just fine stopping the run, but were bad against the run. But when they went with the pass stoppers - TBC, Guyton, Wright, Pryor, Warren - they couldn't stop the run and had problems tacking. So the reality is that they need to add some front 7 players that can play on all 3 downs.

Getting back to the original question regarding the safeties, I agree that an upgrade would be nice. But it doesn't appear there's anyone in this draft who would be an upgrade over any of the top 3 safeties on this roster. Maybe if Rahim Moore is available in the 60-74 range, he'd be worth a shot. Eric Weddle is a guy I'd love to get if he becomes a UFA.

 

[stinkypete]

How about Kyle Arrington at safety?

Assuming sufficient CB depth, of course.

I was thinking the same thing. Arrington is fast, aggressive in run support, and was at least better than Butler at corner. I think he's make a nice FS, provided we land a decent nickel corner to replace him.

Overall, I can't say that the problem is exclusively at DE or OLB or CB or S. The problem is 3rd down defense. I don't recall very many 3rd and 2's or 3rd and 3's. This defense was giving up 3rd and 7's all effing year. It's part DL (we're obviously missing the interior pass rush or Seymour and Green), part OLB (no pressure at all except for Cunningham) and part DB.

To improve the 3rd down defense, at least two of those areas needs to be shored up. I personally think it is more important to build from the line out, but building an elite coverage unit would have the same effect.

Don't forget that free agency will eventually begin. There are potentially several good safeties to choose from: Quinton Mikell, Roman Harper, Dawan Landry and Eric Weddle among others.

 

[IllegalContact]

build the lines.....OL and DL only with the first 3 picks...........

#17 - DE wilkerson or watt
#28 - OG watkins or pouncey
#33 - NT phil taylor
#60 - OLB jabaal sheard
#74 - OG/OT clint boling
#92 - S kenny tate
#124 - RB roy helu
#156 - OT derek newton
#188 - OLB xavier brown

 

[mgteich]

In fairness, Wright, Brace and Deaderick were all injured for much of the season. However, your point is well taken. Even if everyone is healthy, we need help at DE. We brought in Stroud, who could be last year's Lewis or last year's Warren. And Who beleives that BOTH Warren and Wright will be back at 100%. And just BTW, who believes that the DL is anywhere near where it was the day Seymour left?

Warren, Brace, Wright, Deaderick, Stroud

In the end, I am OK with our DL. HOWEVER, we have an opportunity to make a major upgrade to the 2011-2014 defensive line. And just BTW, I would think that if we drafted BOTH Watt/Jordan and Wilkerson/Heyward, I think that our DL would be much improved.

. Brace was supposed to be drafted to relieve Wilfork, but Wilfork had to play out of position because our DEs sucked so badly once Warren went down.

 

[supafly]

In fairness, Wright, Brace and Deaderick were all injured for much of the season. However, your point is well taken. Even if everyone is healthy, we need help at DE. We brought in Stroud, who could be last year's Lewis or last year's Warren. And Who beleives that BOTH Warren and Wright will be back at 100%. And just BTW, who believes that the DL is anywhere near where it was the day Seymour left?

Warren, Brace, Wright, Deaderick, Stroud

In the end, I am OK with our DL. HOWEVER, we have an opportunity to make a major upgrade to the 2011-2014 defensive line. And just BTW, I would think that if we drafted BOTH Watt/Jordan and Wilkerson/Heyward, I think that our DL would be much improved.

Fair point, perhaps a major overhaul is in order, idk? Only our coach knows that one, but if it is, a lot of people will be obviously getting the axe--it'll be interesting already to see who doesn't make it with the addition of 1 more to the mix.

 

[The Gr8est]

build the lines.....OL and DL only with the first 3 picks...........

#17 - DE wilkerson or watt
#28 - OG watkins or pouncey
#33 - NT phil taylor
#60 - OLB jabaal sheard
#74 - OG/OT clint boling
#92 - S kenny tate
#124 - RB roy helu
#156 - OT derek newton
#188 - OLB xavier brown

I'd LOVE to get Kenny Tate at #92. Not only would it be gr8 value, but the looks on the other teams faces, when we draft a guy who wasn't known to be eligible, would be priceless.

I'm just wondering if the Pats can keep his eligibility a secret until draft day.

:rocker:


( For those who I am being too subtle for, Kenny Tate returned to school after initially appearing to be ready to declare for the 2011 draft.)

 

[MaineMan]

While I agree that Butler and Willhite got less PT due to their tackling issues, I don't necessarily agree with your conclusion. Stopping the run is not only on the DL. It's on all 11 players. The issue with tackling was widespread - Guyton, Nink and TBC all had their problems, as of course does Merriweather. And it showed up more in the short passing game than in the run game.

The Pats' defensive problem isn't as simple as you would make it out to be - their DL was bad against the run. Fact of the matter is that when they put in their run stoppers - Brace, Cunningham, Wilfork, Spikes, et al - they did just fine stopping the run, but were bad against the run (I presume you intended to type "pass" here?). But when they went with the pass stoppers - TBC, Guyton, Wright, Pryor, Warren - they couldn't stop the run and had problems tacking. So the reality is that they need to add some front 7 players that can play on all 3 downs.

Getting back to the original question regarding the safeties, I agree that an upgrade would be nice. But it doesn't appear there's anyone in this draft who would be an upgrade over any of the top 3 safeties on this roster. Maybe if Rahim Moore is available in the 60-74 range, he'd be worth a shot. Eric Weddle is a guy I'd love to get if he becomes a UFA.

The point is not that the team as a whole was always "bad" against the run. In fact, as a whole, we were 11th in yds allowed and 10th in TDs allowed. The point is the resources that were required to achieve that ranking.

And I agree entirely - with the DL being so poor, we could either stop the run or (sometimes) rush the QB/stop the pass, we simply couldn't do both at the same time. With a strong 30-front that can stop the run (mostly) on its own, it frees up at least one other guy to focus more on playing coverage or rushing the QB.

 

[MaineMan]

I was thinking the same thing. Arrington is fast, aggressive in run support, and was at least better than Butler at corner. I think he's make a nice FS, provided we land a decent nickel corner to replace him.

Overall, I can't say that the problem is exclusively at DE or OLB or CB or S. The problem is 3rd down defense. I don't recall very many 3rd and 2's or 3rd and 3's. This defense was giving up 3rd and 7's all effing year. It's part DL (we're obviously missing the interior pass rush or Seymour and Green), part OLB (no pressure at all except for Cunningham) and part DB.

To improve the 3rd down defense, at least two of those areas needs to be shored up. I personally think it is more important to build from the line out, but building an elite coverage unit would have the same effect.

Don't forget that free agency will eventually begin. There are potentially several good safeties to choose from: Quinton Mikell, Roman Harper, Dawan Landry and Eric Weddle among others.

Actually, according to FootballOutsiders, our D-line was about the worst in the league last year at giving up first downs on 3rd-and-2 or shorter (running plays up the middle). They were even giving up first downs on runs from 3rd-and-5 (or more). Would have been a lot worse without Mayo, Spikes, Chung - even Guyton had a buttload of tackles.

We were in a position where, if we put coverage/pass-rush guys in on 3rd down, opponents would just blow by the with a run. If we kept our run-stoppers in, they'd go play-action (which is much easier to bite on when you know your D-line is unlikely to stop a run) and the opponent would just drop a pass in over the middle. So, (IMO) a lot of Mayo's "extra" tackles (and even Guyton's, to some extent) were from catching the runs the D-line couldn't, AND tackling receivers after the catch.

 

[mgteich]

As of now, we can project Ty Warren, Wilfork and Stroud/Brace as our base 3-4, with Mayo and Spikes in at ILB. I think that this will be an improvement over 2010. An even greater improvement would come from a 3-4 DE/DT stud.

Actually, according to FootballOutsiders, our D-line was about the worst in the league last year at giving up first downs on 3rd-and-2 or shorter (running plays up the middle). They were even giving up first downs on runs from 3rd-and-5 (or more). Would have been a lot worse without Mayo, Spikes, Chung - even Guyton had a buttload of tackles.

We were in a position where, if we put coverage/pass-rush guys in on 3rd down, opponents would just blow by the with a run. If we kept our run-stoppers in, they'd go play-action (which is much easier to bite on when you know your D-line is unlikely to stop a run) and the opponent would just drop a pass in over the middle. So, (IMO) a lot of Mayo's "extra" tackles (and even Guyton's, to some extent) were from catching the runs the D-line couldn't, AND tackling receivers after the catch.

 

[DW Toys]

Actually, according to FootballOutsiders, our D-line was about the worst in the league last year at giving up first downs on 3rd-and-2 or shorter (running plays up the middle). They were even giving up first downs on runs from 3rd-and-5 (or more). Would have been a lot worse without Mayo, Spikes, Chung - even Guyton had a buttload of tackles.

We were in a position where, if we put coverage/pass-rush guys in on 3rd down, opponents would just blow by the with a run. If we kept our run-stoppers in, they'd go play-action (which is much easier to bite on when you know your D-line is unlikely to stop a run) and the opponent would just drop a pass in over the middle. So, (IMO) a lot of Mayo's "extra" tackles (and even Guyton's, to some extent) were from catching the runs the D-line couldn't, AND tackling receivers after the catch.

Good point.
In fact this just enhances my argument that another stud NT might resolve that issue, if we get back a healthy Ty Warren and Wright, Pryor and Brace. I was down on Brace and I admit it, but he was coming on.

I like the effectiveness that Wilfork brought when he slipped outside upon occasion. We need to upgrade Love. I suggested Kendrick because Taylor is too high to take a NT. Kendrick might be as good, and....like Wilfork one Draft guide even had the thought as a projected Pats pick that Kendrick could slide outside as well. Typical BB multi-position pick.

Someone seemed to indicate in their post that our nine DEs were all "scrubs". I do not call Ty Warren. Mike Wright or Stroud a "scrub". We have some DE talent. We are thin at NT. AND.........as I suggest we have the wrong personnel talents to improve our Safety issues. They have talents and have value but not so much coverage ability.

I agree OLB first and foremost but now I think Safety or NT and then another DE to add to the mix. Of course all bets are off if the DEs still have health issues. The point is urgency of this upcoming season. I say Safety and NT are more of a need than DE. It's my opinion. Stats back up what I say there is no denying. Our Safeties aren't going to learn to cover overnight as they are already veterans. It's nice to be homers and suggest that but then we would be wrong then, wouldn't we be? One of these guys needs to pair with a play making Safety that can cover. I am fine with that in my opinion.
DW Toys

 

[Off The Grid]

I think NT is more of a need than DE.

I am astonished that you are still trying to defend this point.

I have been pounding the table for Kenrick Ellis or Phil Taylor ~ or both!! ~ since October, but if we draft either of them, it will be to play Defensive End, my friend.

We have several good situational Defensive Ends, but, with Ty Warren working his way back from an entire lost year, zero ~ ZERO ~ guys who we can even PENCIL in as a starter.

For those of you scoring at home: That's "ZERO."

Our Nose Tackle, meanwhile, is a guy named Vince Wilfork.

 

[DW Toys]

I am astonished that you are still trying to defend this point.

I have been pounding the table for Kenrick Ellis or Phil Taylor ~ or both!! ~ since October, but if we draft either of them, it will be to play Defensive End, my friend.

We have several good situational Defensive Ends, but, with Ty Warren working his way back from an entire lost year, zero ~ ZERO ~ guys who we can even PENCIL in as a starter.

For those of you scoring at home: That's "ZERO."

Our Nose Tackle, meanwhile, is a guy named Vince Wilfork.

Let's agree that VW sometimes plays DE. Let's agree that BB likes versatility. Let's agree that after Wilfork we have very little to work with at NT. God forbid that VW goes down, who would you put at NT?.....thought so.... I am saying yes Kendrick and Taylor can play DE but also NT to protect and fortify that position. I know those two can play end. You might have a point of Drafting them as ends but that might be the versatility aspect. As far as a DE goes, I prefer Watt because he is more athletic and gives us more needed pass rush, but you know what, I doubt if Watt is even on our board....why? ...Tom Condon. You don't think BB would hold a grudge do ya?

If you don't want to pencil in Ty Warren, Wright, Brace, Pryor, Deaderick, Moore or the newly acquired Stroud (plus some Jags) ......Then I guess your right. We are doomed at DE. We have absolutely "0" for DE's.Please riddle me and pencil in our NT roster? I can agree Taylor and Kendrick can play DE here perhaps more readily than any other NFL 3-4 Team. I just don't think I am labeling Taylor and Kendrick as a DE.

My point is that I know we have nine DEs on the roster and VW sometimes makes ten but if you prefer to pencil in starters that is your opinion I will respect and not argue with.

My opinion states we are in bigger trouble at Safety in this post. We bring back the same group, we do not address the coverage issue up the middle. We were 30th in yards against but 14th in sacks (perhaps Kendrick or Taylor increase our pass rush but I don't think that is their strong suit) . I know we need to be better down the middle in the pass, but as you can see sacks did not translate into the only reason we were last in getting off the field.

A Cousin suggested we were young, thus this is a growth issue. Our Safety rotation were not rookies. They were never noted for pass defense.
In his senior year Chung had only one INT. He was know for his thump not his pass defense. Merriweather was surprisingly slow in the 3 cone and his reactions are mediocre and JS had people say this:
NEGATIVES: Not big or strong and has tackles broken. Slow reading the action and does not display top instincts.
ANALYSIS: A hard-hitting safety who must keep the action in front of him, Sanders has potential in a two-deep system. Possesses the playing style for strong safety and a special teams mentality that will help him at the next level.

Barrett and Page were also SS picks.
I am not here to challenge that any of those guys are not decent. I am a Chung fan.

My whole point was do you see any indication that any of these five Safeties plus Brown and Vetrone are going to cover any better in 2011?
DW Toys

 

[West Philly Patriot]

To me, we have four safeties who we've seen work extensively: Meriweather, Chung, Sanders, McGowan. I rate their general performance (not just 2010, obviously) in three major areas:

Deep coverage (centerfield, over the top help for CBs)
Intermediate coverage (over the middle)
Run support ( reading properly, shedding blocks, wrapping up well)

On a 1-10 scale, then:

Meriweather: 8.5 deep, 5.0 middle, 3.0 run
Sanders: 7.0 deep, 7.0 middle, 7.0 run
Chung: 5.5 deep, 7.0 middle, 8.5 run
McGowan: 2.5 deep, 4.0 middle, 8.5 run

The rest of the safeties - Brown, Page, Barrett, Lockett - I really haven't seen enough of them to rate them.

My feeling is that safety performance results were negatively skewed by a couple of things in 2010.

First, Arrington needed a lot more help along the sidelines than Bodden would have. Butler would have needed no less help and Arrington was playing in his stead because he's better in run support. Just as Chung/Sanders were playing extensively as the 5th DB over Butler/Wilhite, NOT because their coverage skills are superior, but because their run support is.

Beginning to catch a theme here?

There appeared to me to be a much greater than usual focus on run support among the safeties that, I believe, hampered our coverage. We faced a lot of strong running teams and RBs this season, AND, our D-line was a sieve.

Wilfork had 38% of all 152 D-line tackles. The next best guy was G.Warren with 17% (he couldn't handle DE at all, which is why he and Wilfork swapped). Next was Brace with 15%. The other five JAGs split the remaining 30%. That 152 TT by the D-line represents about a 35% dropoff from our 10-year average, lower than our previous low by nearly 20%. Through 2009, just the three guys in our 30-front averaged about 10% more tackles than that - just three guys averaged more tackles than all eight got in 2010.

So, for me, the main explanation for poor coverage by safeties and LBs over the middle, the reason why Mayo had an extraordinary number of tackles (a fair number of which were preventing even more YAC), why Ninkovich was biting on play-action so often, and why the pass rush was so tentative and ineffective (hesitation kills your first step whether you have a great one or not) was that focus on stopping the run to compensate for a truly dreadful D-line (which, other than Mike Wright, also couldn't generate much QB pressure).

Fix the D-line. Get Ty Warren back healthy at LDE (at least he can tackle). Upgrade the RDE spot with a high pick. Put Wilfork back in the middle where he does his best work. It'll probably surprise a lot of folks how many other parts of the defense then fall into place and "improve".

Based on your analysis, I think Cam Heyward will be the 1st DE we take than. If we are looking for more run stoppage to cause a domino effect on the passing D, he is the best run stopping 4 tech we will be in a position to draft. Even if we have to trade back a few spots, I like your explanation and its very plausible.

 

[DW Toys]

Based on your analysis, I think Cam Heyward will be the 1st DE we take than. If we are looking for more run stoppage to cause a domino effect on the passing D, he is the best run stopping 4 tech we will be in a position to draft. Even if we have to trade back a few spots, I like your explanation and its very plausible.

Interesting. Not a bad pick and agreed decent explanations but I am not buying our safeties can cover.
Someone suggested Arrington. O.K. I might see that with Chung as a good pairing.
DW Toys

 

[West Philly Patriot]

I was thinking the same thing. Arrington is fast, aggressive in run support, and was at least better than Butler at corner. I think he's make a nice FS, provided we land a decent nickel corner to replace him.

Overall, I can't say that the problem is exclusively at DE or OLB or CB or S. The problem is 3rd down defense. I don't recall very many 3rd and 2's or 3rd and 3's. This defense was giving up 3rd and 7's all effing year. It's part DL (we're obviously missing the interior pass rush or Seymour and Green), part OLB (no pressure at all except for Cunningham) and part DB.

To improve the 3rd down defense, at least two of those areas needs to be shored up. I personally think it is more important to build from the line out, but building an elite coverage unit would have the same effect.

Don't forget that free agency will eventually begin. There are potentially several good safeties to choose from: Quinton Mikell, Roman Harper, Dawan Landry and Eric Weddle among others.

Roman Harper had one of the worst games I have ever seen a DB have in my time as a fan of pro football. The seahawks went after him that entire game. The saints could not hide him anywhere, IDK if he was injured as he had a good year. I'm sorry, but you cant have your worst career game in the postseason Do. not. want.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

but I am not buying our safeties can cover.
Someone suggested Arrington. O.K. I might see that with Chung as a good pairing.
DW Toys

Except for Merriweather, our safeties cover very well in our soft zone defense. The problem is they can not cover for long and that is where our lack of anything resembling a pass rush hurts.

 

[supafly]

Interesting. Not a bad pick and agreed decent explanations but I am not buying our safeties can cover.
Someone suggested Arrington. O.K. I might see that with Chung as a good pairing.
DW Toys

I dunno DW--especially about Arrington at S.

 

[West Philly Patriot]

Interesting. Not a bad pick and agreed decent explanations but I am not buying our safeties can cover.
Someone suggested Arrington. O.K. I might see that with Chung as a good pairing.
DW Toys

I don't think safety is MAJOR, but I would like a versatile pure coverage S for the secondary to move around. I'm not down on James Sanders as some others seem to be, so it can wait till next year. I will admit sanders is not a burner, but he is by far the smartest defender we have back there.