Are we missing the fact that Safety is a major issue this year?

[DW Toys]

Some media and posters have our needs as OLB, OG, DE, WR, RB, OT.
I think the Pats needs are in fact OLB and then Safety, then the rest. As I have put out there the biggest deficiencies in the Pats defense last year was at Safety. We have some talent and numbers there but let's look at the facts:

When BB sees a glaring issue he tries to correct it. We needed a better core of WR and for 07 he brought is three. Last year he recognized a need a TE, he goes out and grabs two.

This Team was 30th in passing yards against. That is embarrassing to BB. 2010 one year DB Coach Corwin Brown is now out. Most of those passing yards came over the middle. We know McCourty had a good rookie year and Arrington was solid if not spectacular but with their inexperience the Safeties were not much help. The convincing point is we were last in the league in getting off the field on third downs. He have two decent Safeties who have the same game as in Merriweather and Chung. They are known for their hitting and not pass defense. Merriweather will be a FA in 2012 and his agent will ask for big bucks with his Pro Bowl invites (we know better). The Pats need to consider that now. I think Chung will be fine and I see a big year in 2012. Ironically BB just shelled out money to re-sign Page and Barrett who have the same type of "hard hitting, less pass" defense game. There is an underlying reason.

I am not buying into those who say pass rush caused those numbers. Somewhat? Yes. Exclusively? No. Yes it will help to get better in the rush and make us a much more dangerous defense and it is a priority, but we were 14th in sacks and that did not match our poor Pass Against yards stat. Brady had a superb season with a 66% passing completion record. Opposing QBs nailed us for 68% if you put that in perspective (think Flynn and McCoy who moved that needle)
Simple-We need a play making Safety like the guy BB covets in an Ed Reed type.

The Safety class in the years' Draft rots! I think BB might consider another idea. What if there is a guy like Dowling from Maryland who is a long arm CB with superb size at 6"2" and 200lbs that can play Safety? Remember we do not have a Safety who started this year that was over 5'11". Ask your self Cousins....How tall is the average TE in the NFL? How tall are some of the WR getting to be? A guy like Dowling who is a very respected kid and no red flags off the field, is fast, tall, smart, has superb ball skills and is a great tackler. As I have mentioned BB had success converting Eugene Wilson from CB to FS until the injuries hurt his game. Dowling was not a Safety but he has the tools. Can he fit the BB Ed Reed model?

They have also looked at Cortez Allen from Citadel in the later rounds. Another big CB to consider for a FS conversion.

I am adamant about getting good value FAs with NFL ready experience as we all know from me to the point of nausea. I don't trust the Draft system as do most posters. You need a mix. 17% success over the NFL in each Draft means there are way more misses than hits. Perhaps a guy like Eric Weddle who would be a nice fit with Chung if we can move Merriweather. He has the speed and better intelligence to fit BBs defense. He is a better play maker and he can be the DB QB. There are a few to consider out there.

I am a big fan of Adrian Wilson who played all of last year with a tear in his stomach abductor and never mentioned it. That is a tough guy. He is not a FA but he has size speed and intelligence in the Harrison mold that I admire.

Plus the advantage of Drafting a Dowling is because he has played CB as well he brings that diversity that BB loves. They tried that with Merriweather if you remember. He was a Safety and they tried him at CB. I think that CB to Safety is easier.

I see Safety as one of our top three needs in this up coming season. We have good numbers but the wrong skill sets to reduce those Yards Against numbers. It's hard to disagree.

Some say we need a DE. We seem to have good numbers and some youth mixed in their already with Brace, Deaderick and Pryor. Ty Warren is returning. VW also can play there and a healthy Wright who was our 2010 opening starter should be back. BB like his DEs husky. I don't think that is as urgent as a Safety.

I think NT is more of a need than DE. They worked out Kendick Ellis yesterday. He is 340 lbs and can move very well. He is stong and unlike some of these palyers, wants to play NT. I think Love is a JAG and a talent like Ellis might allow more flexibility with VW.
DW Toys

 

[VJCPatriot]

I see Safety as one of our top three needs in this up coming season. We have good numbers but the wrong skill sets to reduce those Yards Against numbers. It's hard to disagree.

NO, Safety is not an urgent need this year. It will be next year when Meriweather becomes eligible for free agency. I'm not in love with the Pats free safety group but the safeties in the NFL draft this year are poor in talent and depth. So it's a bad idea to try to force a square peg into a round hole. Wait for next year.

I think NT is more of a need than DE. They worked out Kendick Ellis yesterday. He is 340 lbs and can move very well. He is stong and unlike some of these palyers, wants to play NT. I think Love is a JAG and a talent like Ellis might allow more flexibility with VW.
DW Toys

Vince Wilfork says hi. NT is NOT a need when you have one of the top 3-4 guys in the entire NFL manning that position. If Wilfork were hurt then that would be different but right now NT not a pressing need.

 

[supafly]

Imagine DW Toys not being happy with our safeties, lol!! I'd have never guessed it!! I'm thinking we should just figure out a way to make a James Sanders clone, so that he can play all 3 positions in the big nickle

You make a fair point, but this is my thinking. I do believe we will take a safety somewhere past rd 4 or so, but as you mentioned there aren't many good options that we know of at least. BB may feel differently, and have his eyes on a late rd S from a smaller school, as you mentioned. I will also agree on the prospect of changing a CB, with the perceived lower level of talent at the position. It could be an option.

However, our safeties are still just fine, and it would be a luxury IMO. Starting off with the obvious Meriweather situation, it is looking more and more as if he will be exonerated (or never charged would be more appropriate actually), and his name and rep somewhat cleared. There should be a good chance that he finishes his last year here, and next year it would be a bigger issue--although there should and will be a better class at the position next year too. Then we have Chung, who made a vast improvement, and obviously BB likes him and gave him plenty of reps. He is obviously starting, no problem there. We still have a viable option with Sanders, despite your personal opinion he has proved to be at the very least--servicable at the position, and can start at any time without too much dropoff. Sure his talent level is not on the same plane, but he has proven himself to know and react to the system just fine, IMO. Again, the issue can be put off another year for sure.

For the 'backups' or role players, we have Page--who we're obviously pretty high on. I see us possibly making him somewhere around a 2 yr offer, depending upon the next season's playing. KC took him high IIRC, and he held out and somehow managed to be a steal here. We have the McGowan issue, and I'm guessing there's just not room for him here next yr personally. He is a FA, and may very well move on to another team. If not, he's also very servicable too, and has proven to be a nice smaller type pickup. Remember when he was our 1st half of 2009 MVP around here on defense? Sure he didn't end up staying at that high level, but he is good depth if he stays. Then we have Barrett, who BB actually extended IIRC. Special teams ability, and some potential for playing time in a reserve/specialty role. Obviously he is going to be here next yr for sure. That leaves us with Sergio Brown ('38 special') as my ex-gf referred to him as, lol!! He showed some decent promise in a rookie setting, and has the possibility to grow too. I'm not saying he was the 2nd coming of Ed Reed, but he didn't suck (at least considering he was a rookie). BB trusted him enough to give him some valuable reps, and he did play out of position at times, but there's a learning curve there.

I'm just not seeing it as a 'high' area of need right now, although it will need to be addressed next yr with the departure of Meriweather. I suspect that the 30th ranked passing will be improved with the return of Bodden at CB, the return of Warren, and the addition of a draft pick or two. There's also the remembering that it was a very young defense, and they did gel together towards the end of the year.

C'mon, Dee-dub, it's not as bad as you think

 

[RodThePat]

The way I see it, safety is a huge need. Meriweather is garbage and James Sanders is nothing more than decent.

 

[mcsully]

I was always under the assumtion the pats played safety left, safety right, more than ss and fs . They are both asked to perform all diff tasks in game.

Chung was hurt and we really haven't seen his full potential. U want to know why our middle was, look no further then mayo. He's great at what he does, keeping things in front of him but when he back peddles , he's slow to react. I can see him getting better as time and ex are increased.


Or biggest issue is lack of exp, not SKILL in this complicated defense. Thinking a rookie safety will make any diff is not something I believe in.

 

[mgteich]

This is enough fo me to ignore the rest of the analysis.

.

I think NT is more of a need than DE. .

 

[DaBruinz]

This is enough fo me to ignore the rest of the analysis.

When MG says you should be ignored, that is really saying something.... :rocker:

 

[scout]

This is enough fo me to ignore the rest of the analysis.

.

I think NT is more of a need than DE. .

That, should be in one of those commercials!

 

[reflexblue]

Please no more TOYS today

 

[sbpatfan]

So if safety was a problem due to inexperience, how does adding another rookie safety fix that? Sanders is solid, Chung will have another year, Page is a younger guy that the team has confidence in, and Meriweather is the team's new poster boy for hatred but is better than anything else we'll find.

 

[IcyPatriot]

I have a safety in my mock ... Robert Sands ... 3a

He's a decent player ... and I vowed not to change my mock this year so I will stick with him.

He's ranked 125(ESPN) ... but i like him in the 3rd due to his size I think he's a bit different 6'5"

He's 217 and can get bigger, he is mature, intelligent and a hard worker - he sounds like a Patriot.

He will need at least a year to acclimate himself to the NFL ... he could get that time here.

 

[MaineMan]

To me, we have four safeties who we've seen work extensively: Meriweather, Chung, Sanders, McGowan. I rate their general performance (not just 2010, obviously) in three major areas:

Deep coverage (centerfield, over the top help for CBs)
Intermediate coverage (over the middle)
Run support ( reading properly, shedding blocks, wrapping up well)

On a 1-10 scale, then:

Meriweather: 8.5 deep, 5.0 middle, 3.0 run
Sanders: 7.0 deep, 7.0 middle, 7.0 run
Chung: 5.5 deep, 7.0 middle, 8.5 run
McGowan: 2.5 deep, 4.0 middle, 8.5 run

The rest of the safeties - Brown, Page, Barrett, Lockett - I really haven't seen enough of them to rate them.

My feeling is that safety performance results were negatively skewed by a couple of things in 2010.

First, Arrington needed a lot more help along the sidelines than Bodden would have. Butler would have needed no less help and Arrington was playing in his stead because he's better in run support. Just as Chung/Sanders were playing extensively as the 5th DB over Butler/Wilhite, NOT because their coverage skills are superior, but because their run support is.

Beginning to catch a theme here?

There appeared to me to be a much greater than usual focus on run support among the safeties that, I believe, hampered our coverage. We faced a lot of strong running teams and RBs this season, AND, our D-line was a sieve.

Wilfork had 38% of all 152 D-line tackles. The next best guy was G.Warren with 17% (he couldn't handle DE at all, which is why he and Wilfork swapped). Next was Brace with 15%. The other five JAGs split the remaining 30%. That 152 TT by the D-line represents about a 35% dropoff from our 10-year average, lower than our previous low by nearly 20%. Through 2009, just the three guys in our 30-front averaged about 10% more tackles than that - just three guys averaged more tackles than all eight got in 2010.

So, for me, the main explanation for poor coverage by safeties and LBs over the middle, the reason why Mayo had an extraordinary number of tackles (a fair number of which were preventing even more YAC), why Ninkovich was biting on play-action so often, and why the pass rush was so tentative and ineffective (hesitation kills your first step whether you have a great one or not) was that focus on stopping the run to compensate for a truly dreadful D-line (which, other than Mike Wright, also couldn't generate much QB pressure).

Fix the D-line. Get Ty Warren back healthy at LDE (at least he can tackle). Upgrade the RDE spot with a high pick. Put Wilfork back in the middle where he does his best work. It'll probably surprise a lot of folks how many other parts of the defense then fall into place and "improve".

 

[Fencer]

How about Kyle Arrington at safety?

Assuming sufficient CB depth, of course.

 

[Off The Grid]

I think NT is more of a need than DE.

Sorry, Bro, but even I think you've been hittin' the Crack Pipe.

 

[Dufflebagz]

"Major" issue?

San Fran has a major issue at QB

Cleveland has a major issue at WR

We have a major issue at OL (or we will soon)

Chung, Meriweather, Page, Sanders.....maybe a slight issue with Meriweather becoming an FA soon

 

[DW Toys]

Sorry, Bro, but even I think you've been hittin' the Crack Pipe.

Cousin, You don't get the point I am making. We have nine Defensive ends on the roster on two Nose Tackles. Love was mediocre at best. I stand by my statement. We need another NT that has some talent to play the inside when VW needs a blow or when ie is moved outside. Gerald Warren is not resigned. I stand by what I said.
Ty Warren and Wright are coming back as is Pryor and Brace. Brace was starting to get better. Deaderick was a decent surprise. Moore had a few good games and we just got Stroud. Murell and Cohen are listed at DE.
NT-Wilfork, Love

I am not replacing or ignoring perhaps the best NT in the game but he moves outside and is effective as well. With Gerald Warren gone, that option is lessened. I want some depth that is dependable and more talented than Love.
Anyone still think my crackpipe smoketh over?
DW Toys

 

[DW Toys]

To me, we have four safeties who we've seen work extensively: Meriweather, Chung, Sanders, McGowan. I rate their general performance (not just 2010, obviously) in three major areas:

Deep coverage (centerfield, over the top help for CBs)
Intermediate coverage (over the middle)
Run support ( reading properly, shedding blocks, wrapping up well)

On a 1-10 scale, then:

Meriweather: 8.5 deep, 5.0 middle, 3.0 run
Sanders: 7.0 deep, 7.0 middle, 7.0 run
Chung: 5.5 deep, 7.0 middle, 8.5 run
McGowan: 2.5 deep, 4.0 middle, 8.5 run

The rest of the safeties - Brown, Page, Barrett, Lockett - I really haven't seen enough of them to rate them.

My feeling is that safety performance results were negatively skewed by a couple of things in 2010.

First, Arrington needed a lot more help along the sidelines than Bodden would have. Butler would have needed no less help and Arrington was playing in his stead because he's better in run support. Just as Chung/Sanders were playing extensively as the 5th DB over Butler/Wilhite, NOT because their coverage skills are superior, but because their run support is.

Beginning to catch a theme here?

There appeared to me to be a much greater than usual focus on run support among the safeties that, I believe, hampered our coverage. We faced a lot of strong running teams and RBs this season, AND, our D-line was a sieve.

Wilfork had 38% of all 152 D-line tackles. The next best guy was G.Warren with 17% (he couldn't handle DE at all, which is why he and Wilfork swapped). Next was Brace with 15%. The other five JAGs split the remaining 30%. That 152 TT by the D-line represents about a 35% dropoff from our 10-year average, lower than our previous low by nearly 20%. Through 2009, just the three guys in our 30-front averaged about 10% more tackles than that - just three guys averaged more tackles than all eight got in 2010.

So, for me, the main explanation for poor coverage by safeties and LBs over the middle, the reason why Mayo had an extraordinary number of tackles (a fair number of which were preventing even more YAC), why Ninkovich was biting on play-action so often, and why the pass rush was so tentative and ineffective (hesitation kills your first step whether you have a great one or not) was that focus on stopping the run to compensate for a truly dreadful D-line (which, other than Mike Wright, also couldn't generate much QB pressure).

Fix the D-line. Get Ty Warren back healthy at LDE (at least he can tackle). Upgrade the RDE spot with a high pick. Put Wilfork back in the middle where he does his best work. It'll probably surprise a lot of folks how many other parts of the defense then fall into place and "improve".

Decent read. Thanks.
DW Toys

 

[DW Toys]

Imagine DW Toys not being happy with our safeties, lol!! I'd have never guessed it!! I'm thinking we should just figure out a way to make a James Sanders clone, so that he can play all 3 positions in the big nickle

You make a fair point, but this is my thinking. I do believe we will take a safety somewhere past rd 4 or so, but as you mentioned there aren't many good options that we know of at least. BB may feel differently, and have his eyes on a late rd S from a smaller school, as you mentioned. I will also agree on the prospect of changing a CB, with the perceived lower level of talent at the position. It could be an option.

However, our safeties are still just fine, and it would be a luxury IMO. Starting off with the obvious Meriweather situation, it is looking more and more as if he will be exonerated (or never charged would be more appropriate actually), and his name and rep somewhat cleared. There should be a good chance that he finishes his last year here, and next year it would be a bigger issue--although there should and will be a better class at the position next year too. Then we have Chung, who made a vast improvement, and obviously BB likes him and gave him plenty of reps. He is obviously starting, no problem there. We still have a viable option with Sanders, despite your personal opinion he has proved to be at the very least--servicable at the position, and can start at any time without too much dropoff. Sure his talent level is not on the same plane, but he has proven himself to know and react to the system just fine, IMO. Again, the issue can be put off another year for sure.

For the 'backups' or role players, we have Page--who we're obviously pretty high on. I see us possibly making him somewhere around a 2 yr offer, depending upon the next season's playing. KC took him high IIRC, and he held out and somehow managed to be a steal here. We have the McGowan issue, and I'm guessing there's just not room for him here next yr personally. He is a FA, and may very well move on to another team. If not, he's also very servicable too, and has proven to be a nice smaller type pickup. Remember when he was our 1st half of 2009 MVP around here on defense? Sure he didn't end up staying at that high level, but he is good depth if he stays. Then we have Barrett, who BB actually extended IIRC. Special teams ability, and some potential for playing time in a reserve/specialty role. Obviously he is going to be here next yr for sure. That leaves us with Sergio Brown ('38 special') as my ex-gf referred to him as, lol!! He showed some decent promise in a rookie setting, and has the possibility to grow too. I'm not saying he was the 2nd coming of Ed Reed, but he didn't suck (at least considering he was a rookie). BB trusted him enough to give him some valuable reps, and he did play out of position at times, but there's a learning curve there.

I'm just not seeing it as a 'high' area of need right now, although it will need to be addressed next yr with the departure of Meriweather. I suspect that the 30th ranked passing will be improved with the return of Bodden at CB, the return of Warren, and the addition of a draft pick or two. There's also the remembering that it was a very young defense, and they did gel together towards the end of the year.

C'mon, Dee-dub, it's not as bad as you think

Fair enough but I see this as still an issue if we stand pat. We do not have a coverage Safety. I give our Safeties a "D" in coverage ability in 2010. I did not even mention one of the other Safeties in the rotation is extremely slow.
All I am saying is I see an upgrade need at that position for coverage reasons. That is my concern and stats bear me out. I like Chung a lot and think Merriweather legal deal is all B.S. and a non-issue. I think his 2012 FA scenario is one of a concern. I think he could get better but does he have Trade value now?
The Safety class rots this year. I suggested a few ideas that could help deep coverage in 2011. We were not good.
DW Toys

 

[Off The Grid]

To me, we have four safeties who we've seen work extensively: Meriweather, Chung, Sanders, McGowan. I rate their general performance (not just 2010, obviously) in three major areas:

Deep coverage (centerfield, over the top help for CBs)
Intermediate coverage (over the middle)
Run support ( reading properly, shedding blocks, wrapping up well)

On a 1-10 scale, then:

Meriweather: 8.5 deep, 5.0 middle, 3.0 run
Sanders: 7.0 deep, 7.0 middle, 7.0 run
Chung: 5.5 deep, 7.0 middle, 8.5 run
McGowan: 2.5 deep, 4.0 middle, 8.5 run

The rest of the safeties - Brown, Page, Barrett, Lockett - I really haven't seen enough of them to rate them.

My feeling is that safety performance results were negatively skewed by a couple of things in 2010.

First, Arrington needed a lot more help along the sidelines than Bodden would have. Butler would have needed no less help and Arrington was playing in his stead because he's better in run support. Just as Chung/Sanders were playing extensively as the 5th DB over Butler/Wilhite, NOT because their coverage skills are superior, but because their run support is.

Beginning to catch a theme here?

There appeared to me to be a much greater than usual focus on run support among the safeties that, I believe, hampered our coverage. We faced a lot of strong running teams and RBs this season, AND, *our D-line was a sieve.

Wilfork had 38% of all 152 D-line tackles. The next best guy was G.Warren with 17% (he couldn't handle DE at all, which is why he and Wilfork swapped). Next was Brace with 15%. The other five JAGs split the remaining 30%.

That 152 TT by the D-line represents about a 35% dropoff from our 10-year average, lower than our previous low by nearly 20%.

Through 2009, just the three guys in our 30-front averaged about 10% more tackles than that - just three guys averaged more tackles than all eight got in 2010.

*So, for me, the main explanation for poor coverage by safeties and LBs over the middle, the reason why Mayo had an extraordinary number of tackles (a fair number of which were preventing even more YAC), why Ninkovich was biting on play-action so often, and why the pass rush was so tentative and ineffective (hesitation kills your first step whether you have a great one or not) was that focus on stopping the run to compensate for a truly dreadful D-line (which, other than Mike Wright, also couldn't generate much QB pressure).

Fix the D-line. Get Ty Warren back healthy at LDE (at least he can tackle). Upgrade the RDE spot with a high pick. Put Wilfork back in the middle where he does his best work.

*It'll probably surprise a lot of folks how many other parts of the defense then fall into place and "improve".

I know I've been burning superlatives very heavily this week, but there have been some exceptional posts, hereabouts.

This one was brilliant, Brother Maine.

It All Starts In The Trenches.

Always has.

Always will.

 

[Zardnok]

Possible late round gem at safety is Chris Prosinski from Wyoming. He was the best player on a bad Wyoming team, but he is not afraid to tackle and has been quite productive. The knock on him is that he was not "athletic" enough to transfer to the NFL, but his recent Pro-Day results indicate differently.

317 tackles in the last 3 years. 5 interceptions and 4 forced fumbles, 20 pass deflections just ran a 4.39 at his pro day with a 11.2 Broad jump and a 39.5 inch vertical.

He wouldve been tied for first among ALL defensive backs for vertical jump, first in the Broad this year, just a hair under the combine record, he wouldve tied for first in the 3 cone drill among safetys this year and just right outside the top performers in the shuttle.