AFC playoff bye for PATs?

[Kontradiction]

the texans bears game has no effect on the afc seeding.

If Da Bears win, it very well could.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

the texans bears game has no effect on the afc seeding.

Any loss by the Texans hurts them in the AFC seeding. Just an example off the top of my head, if the Bears win that game and we win out, we'll finish ahead of the Texans. If Texans win that game and win out, they finish above us even if we win out. It's a lesser important game since it's an NFC opponent but it still has an effect.

 

[Kulko]

Looking at the Simulations that are out there thins look not so good.

A) Football Outsiders:FO Playoff Odds
They value "the lots of short stuff" offense rather high and believe and bend but dont break, so they have the Pats as one of the top teams in the league.
Therefore Pats are mostly sure to win their division, but even in that case its 50/50 if the get a bye or not, because HOU and DEN have such easy schedules.

Given the very favorable estimation of the Pats real strength, and the fact that I cannot find any overrated AFC Team in there estimations, I would guess this is the best case scenario.

B) Advanced NFL Stats Adv. NFL Playoff Odds

They value our Big Play defense very poor and also see the Offense as merely good as opposed to breathtaking which adds up to a perfectly average team. Given the tenhdency of the AFC to field losers this year it still gives us the best shot at a divisoion title (68%) but even when we get there we have only 15% chance of getting a bye.

Again, I don't think we can be much worth than that one, so 15% is kind of worst case.

So we are still in the race, but it will be a uphill battle to get there and we should expect to win 4 Playoff games this year, which at least means 30% more endorphines.

PS: For all people unaware of the method behind this projection, in both cases the team strength estimation is calculated in a winning probability for each game. and then the season is simulated 10000 times based on these probabilities.

 

[PatsFan2]

......... Why?

So far the Texans are undefeated in AFC.

 

[lamafist]

Looking at the Simulations that are out there thins look not so good.

A) Football Outsiders:FO Playoff Odds
They value "the lots of short stuff" offense rather high and believe and bend but dont break, so they have the Pats as one of the top teams in the league.
Therefore Pats are mostly sure to win their division, but even in that case its 50/50 if the get a bye or not, because HOU and DEN have such easy schedules.

Given the very favorable estimation of the Pats real strength, and the fact that I cannot find any overrated AFC Team in there estimations, I would guess this is the best case scenario.

B) Advanced NFL Stats Adv. NFL Playoff Odds

They value our Big Play defense very poor and also see the Offense as merely good as opposed to breathtaking which adds up to a perfectly average team. Given the tenhdency of the AFC to field losers this year it still gives us the best shot at a divisoion title (68%) but even when we get there we have only 15% chance of getting a bye.

Again, I don't think we can be much worth than that one, so 15% is kind of worst case.

So we are still in the race, but it will be a uphill battle to get there and we should expect to win 4 Playoff games this year, which at least means 30% more endorphines.

PS: For all people unaware of the method behind this projection, in both cases the team strength estimation is calculated in a winning probability for each game. and then the season is simulated 10000 times based on these probabilities.

It's worth pointing out that the FO's projections have historically faired better than ANS's, primarily because Aaron Schatz of FO designed his model to be predictive, while Brian Burke's metrics at ANS are entirely descriptive.

The FO metric discounts the effects of game events that have been shown to lack any predictive value. Given the rarity of blocked FGs and punts, teams have virtually no control over their opponent's FG%. Whether the other team hits a FG or not can cause a big swing in Burke's WPA (Winning Percentage Added) while FO's DVOA (adjusted Value Over Average) weights the value of a FG by the NFL average from that distance.

Another example is what FO calls "fumble luck." FO has found that while forcing fumbles is a repeatable skill for a defense, in the long run, whether the defense recovers the fumble or not has proven to depend only on where and how the fumble occurs. FO weights the value of forcing fumbles accordingly, while whether a team recovers a fumble or not has a critical effect in ANS' WPA.

Similarly, while intercepting the ball is a predictive capability for a defense, what happens after the interception -- how long the return, and especially, whether it's a pick-6 -- again depends only on where + how the interception occurs. DVOA credits the defense only for the NFL average value of the turnover created, while an INT return has critical leverage on WPA. (In the history of the NFL, there's actually one exception to the "interception returns are effectively random" rule: the Ravens have reliably returned more INTs for TDs than other teams... but only when the INT is recorded by BB binky Ed Reed. Ed Reed is the only defensive player in NFL history to truly have "a nose for the endzone" on INT returns.)

Of course, it should be noted that even though FO gives the Patriots the 2nd best chance of getting a bye in the AFC, it's still less even odds. (44.6% to be exact.) So they're breakdown still says it's more likely that two other teams get the bye.

 

[JR4]

So far the Texans are undefeated in AFC.

so? does that mean if they lose to the Bears that loss will in no way for the
rest of this season affect their seeding in the playoffs?

recall deters said
"the texans bears game has no effect on the afc seeding."

Texans are in the afc right?

 

[supafly]

So far the Texans are undefeated in AFC.

Yes, but of course the overall record is still obviously the most important factor.

With the Texans already having one loss so far, a Bears victory would then give them 2 losses.

If HOU has 2 losses overall after this weekend, it would obviously bode much better for our team, who would then gain a whole game on the AFC's best record.

As far as conference records etc, that will all play out down the road of course, but we realistically need to go 7-1 or 6-2 to have a shot at the #2 seed in my opinion.

That would allow the Patriots to go 12-4 or 11-5 overall, which would put them in a nice spot for the #2.

It always helps to root for losses from everyone else in the AFC too

 

[supafly]

After I looked at the schedule, i concluded that I really have no idea how any one game is going to turn out, given the nature of the NFL, but you've come to pretty much the same conclusion as me. Hoping for 6--2, ready for 5--3.

I'm very optimistic that they can get things together to be playing really well at the right time.

I'm going to take it up one notch and be a little bit more optimistic.

I think that we should hope for 7-1, but will be prepared for 6-2.

That would make the team either 12-4 or 11-5.

I think that they will indeed be competitive for the #2 seed, thus giving them the first round bye.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

So far the Texans are undefeated in AFC.

If we beat them next month, that win would trump AFC record in case we finish tied giving us the tiebreaker. And vice verca if they beat us. So conference record is pretty much meaningless when it comes to us vs. Houston. So any game Houston might lose is a big help regardless of conference.

 

[supafly]

If we beat them next month, that win would trump AFC record in case we finish tied giving us the tiebreaker. And vice verca if they beat us. So conference record is pretty much meaningless when it comes to us vs. Houston. So any game Houston might lose is a big help regardless of conference.

Exactly...

It won't even get a chance to come down that far to the conference record vs the rest of the AFC, due to their head to head matchup next month (as you point out).

The more losses for the Texans = the better position the Patriots are in for the #1 or #2 seed and the bye that comes with it.

The Texans game is going to live up to its hype, and I think we have a decent shot in that game for sure.

HOU will be playing its 3rd consecutive road game vs us that night.

 

[Avenger]

I think we have a chance to run the table in the second half, Niners and Texans being the two toughest games, but Houston's defense got exposed by the Packers, I think we match up well against them, ditto with SF, the bulk of the Niner offense is reliant on the run and play action. We have a great run D, and I don't think Alex Smith can beat us in the air, especially now that we added Talib at CB.

 

[JMarr]

I think we have a chance to run the table in the second half, Niners and Texans being the two toughest games, but Houston's defense got exposed by the Packers, I think we match up well against them, ditto with SF, the bulk of the Niner offense is reliant on the run and play action. We have a great run D, and I don't think Alex Smith can beat us in the air, especially now that we added Talib at CB.

Yep, it's time for the Pats to put the hammer down in a serious way and make a run for HFA throughout. Houston, Denver, Balt., Pittsburgh: all playoff wins at home; all most likely playoff loses on the road..

With the offensive talent we have, no reason Josh shouldn't unleash the hounds now and pound our remaining opponents into submission ala 2007. Texans are rolling but I still think they will lose two more games--one to us, so we'll have the tiebreaker. Baltimore and Denver are the two teams most likely to beat us out for HFA. Denver is the last place I would want to head for a potential AFCCG.

 

[Gumby]

Exactly...

It won't even get a chance to come down that far to the conference record vs the rest of the AFC, due to their head to head matchup next month (as you point out).

The more losses for the Texans = the better position the Patriots are in for the #1 or #2 seed and the bye that comes with it.

The Texans game is going to live up to its hype, and I think we have a decent shot in that game for sure.

HOU will be playing its 3rd consecutive road game vs us that night.

Unless of course there is a 3- or 4-way tie for best AFC record. then the H-H record MAY NOT factor in (depending who 3 and 4 are).

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I'm going to take it up one notch and be a little bit more optimistic.

I think that we should hope for 7-1, but will be prepared for 6-2.

That would make the team either 12-4 or 11-5.

I think that they will indeed be competitive for the #2 seed, thus giving them the first round bye.

As I have said before in this thread, "From your lips to God's ears," but, while I am highly confident we win the division, I think we might have to win four playoff games, at least two of them on the road in tough venues. In other words, I think we have to start thinking like the Giants of 07 and 11.

What I don't get is people here jumping off the bridge because we might have to win tough games on the road in the playoffs. It's how we got there in 01 and 04. For those who think Homefield is a magic path, I present in evidence the Ravens and Jets home games of the last decade.

 

[aluminum seats]

For those who think Homefield is a magic path, I present in evidence the Ravens and Jets home games of the last decade.

Teams have taken all kinds of different roads to the Super Bowl, of course.

It's not a question of "a magic path" but maximizing possibilities. To me, being one of the top two seeds is far more important than getting to be the top seed. You're in the top two, you've already won a playoff game. You've got two weeks to prepare for a home game, which if you win, you're in the Championship Game. Wherever the next game is held pales in comparison to that.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Teams have taken all kinds of different roads to the Super Bowl, of course.

It's not a question of "a magic path" but maximizing possibilities. To me, being one of the top two seeds is far more important than getting to be the top seed. You're in the top two, you've already won a playoff game. You've got two weeks to prepare for a home game, which if you win, you're in the Championship Game. Wherever the next game is held pales in comparison to that.

There's nothing there that I'd argue with. I'm just saying we have to be ready for another path, following which has resulted in two of our three SB wins. I was reacting to posters who say that having to go on the road in the playoffs spells doom for the Pats; if we believe that, we should pack it in in September.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Teams have taken all kinds of different roads to the Super Bowl, of course.

It's not a question of "a magic path" but maximizing possibilities. To me, being one of the top two seeds is far more important than getting to be the top seed. You're in the top two, you've already won a playoff game. You've got two weeks to prepare for a home game, which if you win, you're in the Championship Game. Wherever the next game is held pales in comparison to that.

Yeah playing the odds, winning 3 games against the top teams in the league is much more likely than winning 4. Also all 5 SB appearances under BB has come when the team had a bye, they've never made the SB without a bye. I'm usually not a big mathematics guy when it comes to football, but considering all the variables within each game and all that can go wrong in a 60 minute period, 3 vs 4 is a huge advantage, especially when you're getting that extra week off while everybody else is banged up.

 

[Gumby]

Teams have taken all kinds of different roads to the Super Bowl, of course.

It's not a question of "a magic path" but maximizing possibilities. To me, being one of the top two seeds is far more important than getting to be the top seed. You're in the top two, you've already won a playoff game. You've got two weeks to prepare for a home game, which if you win, you're in the Championship Game. Wherever the next game is held pales in comparison to that.

ABSOLUTELY AGREE on MAXIMIZING probablity.

Plus; the SBs Pats have lost; have ARGUABLY had outcome changed by one single player injury each time (Neal - Gronk). 4 games vs 3 games gives a 33% greater opportunity for an outcome-changing injury to occur (or 50% if you want to say 3 games to get there vs 2).

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

We need the Steelers and Broncos to start losing

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Yeah playing the odds, winning 3 games against the top teams in the league is much more likely than winning 4. Also all 5 SB appearances under BB has come when the team had a bye, they've never made the SB without a bye. I'm usually not a big mathematics guy when it comes to football, but considering all the variables within each game and all that can go wrong in a 60 minute period, 3 vs 4 is a huge advantage, especially when you're getting that extra week off while everybody else is banged up.

We're all just arguing the same point over and over again now.

I take your point and agree that a Bye is better for a myriad of, to be honest, pretty obvious reasons, including those that you cite.

But, we can't bank on it this year.

If we look back on the last ten seasons, the SB winner has had a Bye 50% of the time and had to win four games 50% of the time. So, while I will agree that "3 vs. 4" with a week to rest is an "advantage," the data suggest that it is not a "huge advantage," given that, as a predictor of the outcome, "3 vs 4" has been a 50-50 proposition in recent years.

If your argument is that there's something about the Patriots that means they can't take a four game route to hoisting the Lombardi, then I just plain disagree with you. Taking that view implies that we don't think the team is tough or resilient enough to deal with the adversity of four playoff games, at least one of which will usually be in an unfriendly venue. That's just not how I see these Patriots, until proven otherwise.