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AFC playoff bye for PATs?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by JR4, Nov 3, 2012.

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  1. JR4

    JR4 In the Starting Line-up PatsFans.com Supporter

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    How does it look for the PATs with a 5-3 record?
    ( looking at division leaders only -
    but there are other 4 win teams that could surprise)

    Note: remaining games that have a significant chance of causing a loss in parentheses

    Texans 6-1 ( Bears,PATs)
    Ravens 5-2 ( Broncos, Giants, steelers x 1 )
    Patriots 5-3 ( 49's, Texans, Fins x 1)
    Broncos 4-3 ( Ravens, Chargers)

    It looks like PATs almost have to win last 8 games to have a shot at
    a bye.
    Even then if Ravens only lose 1 game they get the bye over PATs
    because tie breaker goes to Ravens since they beat the PATs.

    Of course if Texans lose 2 games that would make it interesting.

    Thoughts?
  2. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think the Pats can be 12-4, possibly 11-5, and get the bye.

    The Ravens are in trouble and I wouldn't even bet they win their division much less get a bye at this point. Their defense is a mess and they are going to have to rely on Joe Flacco to get them into the playoffs. I expect them to lose 3-4 more games the rest of the way.

    The Pats have the tiebreaker with the Broncos and I don't see them going 9-0 the rest of the way. Wait until it gets cold and see how Manning plays.

    It is still possible to get HOF with a 12-4 or 11-5 record. The Texans still have 9 more games and besides the Bears and Pats, they have the Vikes (5-3) and Colts twice (4-3). They are not elite teams, but teams good enough to beat anyone if the other team is off for that game.

    It is too early to talk about first round byes. The AFC is weak and even in good years, it doesn't always take 13 wins to get a bye.
  3. everlong

    everlong Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    I'm hoping that's the case but their schedule is retardedly easy. The only team with a winning record is the Ravens who as you said are going to fade. Even if Manning struggles in the cold I can see them running the table. Tomorrow in Cincinnati its going to be low 50's with no wind so he's getting a weather pass on a game that could have been cold. Hopefully the Bengals coming off a bye and really needing this game show up in a big way.
  4. Bobs My Uncle

    Bobs My Uncle PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Of course anything can happen but, if I were a betting man, I'd bet that the Texans and Broncos end up as the #1 and #2 seeds respectively.
  5. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    An average team playing a bunch of average of less teams doesnt win 9 straight.
  6. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Revis Island is here PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #95 Jersey

    think they end up 11-5 with losses in miami and home vs houston on the bubble of a bye...denver will make a strong run..ravens will slip
  7. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Broncos = 4 seed at best
  8. everlong

    everlong Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    They're better than average and their schedule is really crap.

    Cinn, Car, SD, KC (twice), Oak, TB, BAL CLE. The worst I can see them going is 7-2. If that was the Patriots schedule I would be shocked if they didn't run the table. The Pats were unlucky in getting the Ravens at the wrong time with the wrong refs.
  9. Bobs My Uncle

    Bobs My Uncle PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Perhaps so, but that team is playing well right now and their sked is crazy easy from here on out. I can't imagine they are going to lose more than a couple of games the rest of the way. Likely just 1 (to the Ravens?). If so, the Pats can't afford to lose more than 1 remaining game. Possible? Yes, but the Pats remaining sked is MUCH more difficult.
  10. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Revis Island is here PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #95 Jersey

    have you seen their schedule? Easy as pie
  11. fxkane

    fxkane Rookie

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    Well, since two of our losses have come against "easy" teams... We just have to wait a while before we have this discussion.

    But this said, I do think the Pats will finish ahead of the Ravens (not so much their defensive woes, but their tough schedule) And be at least the 3 seed.
  12. hodgey

    hodgey Rookie

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    The only team that I dont want to see get a bye and any home field advantage over us is Denver. I dont think the bye is that important especially with a young team. May well even be better to keep rolling.
  13. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    They aren't that good a team. Average teams playing a schedule of average or less don't un the table. If they go 7-2 the rest of the way, which would be shocking, we would have to lose 3 more for them to surpass us.
  14. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Not sure I agree with 'playing well'.
    They beat a terrible Saints team
    They lose to the woeful Chargers if they didn't totally collapse and choke the game away.
    Before that they lose 3 of 4.
    They are 1-2 on the road, with the only win being the SD gift.
    They have 5 road games left. Winning 3 of those would be a surprise.
    This is not a good football team.
  15. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    They have 5 road games left, 3 in the eastern time zone.
    They have played 3 road games, lost 2 and were down 24-0 in the 3rd until the Chargers choked it away.
    Less than 3 losses in those 5 would be a shocker.
  16. everlong

    everlong Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    Tomorrow's game vs the Bengals is one of their more losable games so hopefully you're right and they lose that one. I wish the weather report was worse.
  17. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    I think NE finishes with an 11-5 record...I think they lose at least one more home game to SF or Houston and one division game,perhaps to Miami.

    11-5 to me will be the 2nd best record in the conference,Houston wins the conference and HFA in a laughing runaway at 14-2 or 13-3

    I still think despite most of you thinking the Ravens are in shambles will be sadly mistaken,they still have a good coach and solid nucleus of players including Ed Reed and Suggs on defense and they are better overall than the aging Steelers.

    Because of the controversial FG when NE played Baltimore,that FG might very well make the difference in NE playing on Wild Card weekend then getting a bye week.....I think Baltimore also finishes at 11-5 as North champ and wins the tiebreaker for the 2nd seed and bye week over NE.

    I think New England will face at home either Cincinnati,Oakland,Miami or Pittsburgh on WC weekend
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2012
  18. serifyn

    serifyn Rookie

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    Well if the Patriots beat the Texans it would certainly help, the Ravens have a tiebreaker over you, and even though they seem to be falling apart a little bit, they are still a good team.

    So far its looking like the Texans, Ravens, Patriots, Broncos as 1-4 and a handful of teams including the Dolphins the mix in the wildcard. I'd be afraid of the Dolphins if you have to play them for a 3rd time, especially since The Patriots play them in week 17, Playing a team in back-to-back weeks would be rough regardless of who it is.
  19. Yehoodi

    Yehoodi Rookie

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    we will have to see what happens, i think it will be tough for Denver to run the table, so they will be 12-4 or something south of this . . .

    Baltimore is injuried and still needs to play Pitt twice and Den, and even Cleve . . .

    And houston has a few tough games . . .

    we must also not forget that if its a three way tie among the divisions leader, then we will likely end up with the conf record as the tie breaker and the pats might very well be whatever and one, and if so very likely win the tie breaker and get HFA

    I do feel good as Baltimore should fade some, and if Houston trips up between now and when we play them, our destiny is in our own hands and we would be only behind houston by one loss and could make that up in the game against them . . . and given that our other AFC games may not be that tough we could very likely only have one conf loss, which would bode well with a fading Baltimore and head to head TBs over hou and den. .. .
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2012
  20. Tunescribe

    Tunescribe PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #61 Jersey

    The loss to Arizona still makes me sick. The replacement ref's phantom holding call on Gronk during what WAS Woodhead's WINNING touchdown still haunts me. Then Ghost misses a 42-yarder ... Ugh.
  21. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Baltimore won't lose the rest of their games or anything, but they are in trouble when it comes to trying to get a first round bye or even possibly winning the division. Their defense was average before Webb and Lewis went out and now they may be below average. Look at their last three games and you will see a team on a decline even though they went 2-1 in those games. They barely beat a God awful Chiefs and couldn't score more than 9 points. They beat the Cowboys off a missed last second field goal by the Cowboys. They got crushed by the Texans. And let's not forget that they didn't really impress against Cleveland at home four games ago.

    Looking at the Ravens' schedule, they should lose at least one of the Steelers games, to Denver, and to the Giants. Other games they could lose include the other Steelers' game, Washington, Cinci, and the Chargers.

    I think the Ravens and Steelers may be in a dog fight for the division and 10-6 and even 9-7 could win that division. I could see the Ravens losing 5 games if they don't fix that defense.
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2012
  22. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    "Bye?! Bye?! You want to talk about a Bye?"

    Let's just be sure we beat the Bills, then whomever is next, then lock up the Division against a confident but probably overconfident Miami team, then worry about the seeding.
  23. everlong

    everlong Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    What is your reasoning on Oak? I can mke one for the others but the Raiders.......
  24. bostonia3333

    bostonia3333 Rookie

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    1. Houston
    2. Denver
    3. Pit
    4. New England

    Too much damage already done with those gms we dropped to college squads
  25. Froob

    Froob Rookie

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    #32 Jersey

    With Peyton I really wouldn't count that out....of course he'll cap it off with a one and done
  26. deters

    deters Rookie

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    As it sits right now the projected playoff teams are

    1. Houston
    2. Baltimore
    3. New England
    4. Denver
    5. Indianapolis
    6. Pittsburgh

    Pats play Houston, Indianapolis and hold a tie breaker over Denver. Pitt still has to play Baltimore 2x as well as the Chargers.

    Baltimore plays Pitt, Chargers, Pitt, Redskins, Denver, Giants in a 6 week stretch. That's possibly 4 AFC losses.

    If the Pats beat Houston and don't drop a game they should win, we should be able to achieve a first round bye.
  27. patsfan-1982

    patsfan-1982 Rookie

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    the ravens may not even win there own division the steelers are playing better then them right now and have less injurys to star players
  28. QB12

    QB12 Rookie

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    Texans lose at Bears Sunday, we beat Texans, and run the table. We get #1 seed.
  29. goheels22002

    goheels22002 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    The Texans at Patriots game is shaping up to be possibly critical to the bye and home field.

    For the best team in the AFC, the Texans were unimpressive at home against the Bills yesterday. Their defense looked decent but not dominant, and their offense was plodding against the Bills. The Texans committed a lot of stupid penalties and didn't covert on 7 of 11 third downs. Foster put up 111 yards against the Bills, but I see the Pats front seven as a tough match-up for the Texans, particularly inside. The Texans look vulnerable and not explosive offensively.

    If the Patriots are revved up at home and put a couple of early scores on the board, it could be a very long day for the Texans. It will be a big test for Schaub outdoors in the cold to prove he can keep up with the Patriots if their running game is stalled or irrelevant in a catchup game.
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2012
  30. Gumby

    Gumby Rookie

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    good to remember as you mentioned obliquely that AFC record is what counts after overall. Pats only have 1 AFC loss as do the Ravens. Pats absolutely HAVE to beat Houston to have a reasonable shot at #1 or even #2 as Houston doesnt have an AFC loss yet.
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