Fair point, driven home by the poster (lamafist) who reports that the data show that over the last 12 seasons 16 of 48 teams with Byes have made the SB vs. eight of 96 without a bye. That's a 33.3% chance of getting to the big game with a Bye vs. 8.3% without a Bye.
If you expand the universe of SB winners back to 2000, it is, however, still 50--50 with vs. without the Bye. So, using lamafist's data, six of the sixteen that got to the SB with a Bye (37.5%) won the game and six of the eight without a Bye (75%) won the game.
So, the combined analysis shows that you have a better chance of actually getting to the SB with a Bye by a margin of four to one! I stand well and clearly corrected on that!
However, the analysis also shows that if you get there without a Bye, you have a better chance of winning the game, once you are there, by a margin of two to one (75% to 37.5%).
That makes me want to stick to my going-in view, stated several times in the thread: I'd rather that we have a Bye, but it's not the end of the world if we don't.
Good stuff all around. I wish there were more threads like this where we argue and discuss data, get corrected on the data by other posters and all end up learning something we didn't know before!
Thanks to everyone who added to the discussion and kept it civil and fact-driven!
) conclusion this is it.
