47 Locks Or Close

[mgteich]

Are you suggesting that Brandon Bolden is not expendable?

Bolden is very expendable. I expect O'Shaughnessy to beat to be the 3rd (or 4th) TE and STer, beating out Bolden. However, he could make the roster as a RB if someone is injured or if one of the RB's is traded at the last minute.

 

[mgteich]

BTW, the signing of a veteran lineman like Mangold make us much more comfortable with 4 IOL's with the #5 (and 6 and 7) being on the PS.

Good stuff. This will be one of our most debatable subjects for the next 4 months (it will feel good to put Jimmy G on the shelf for awhile.)

I think (T) McDermott will be an excellent PS candidate, and at this point, I also would consider Mike Williams strictly a TE, not a tackle.

It's quite possible that Williams' main competition will come from Devlin, O'Shaughnessy, and even Bolden (ST only).

As it stands now, I'd have Solder, Cannon, Garcia, and Fleming as our 4 tackles. My one real concern with your 25 would be whether or not we may be one short at the IOL position. Other than that, I think you did a real nice job fitting everyone in.

 

[Thelonious]

So, we're all sitting at our keyboards, trying not to type it, but this is obviously the best team in the NFL, and it's not really that close, and they're probably gonna win this year's Super Bowl too.

OK, let's all purse our lips, act all mature and skeptical, and pretend it isn't so. Nobody wants to be called a homer fanboy, after all!

Sincerely, Homer Fanboy

 

[RobertWeathers]

So, we're all sitting at our keyboards, trying not to type it, but this is obviously the best team in the NFL, and it's not really that close, and they're probably gonna win this year's Super Bowl too.

OK, let's all purse our lips, act all mature and skeptical, and pretend it isn't so. Nobody wants to be called a homer fanboy, after all!

Sincerely, Homer Fanboy

The only thing that stops this team is injuries. Its been that way since 2011

 

[Ivan]

Burkhead, Gillislee and White all got paid and I just dont see the 4th RB as a lock and paying White and not Lewis would suggest that Lewis is the 4th RB. I still think he will make the team but im not going to be floored if Bolden or someone else makes it over him because the 4th RB is either going to be inactive a lot of games or play ST.

Lewis had already gotten his extension.

 

[ALP]

whose that young LB that stuffed a bunch of runs last year in the middle? i forget his name

but id consider him a lock, he just needs to work on pass coverage a bit more (a weakness prevalent in almost all lbs)

 

[mgteich]

DEFENSE (25)
6 DE Ninkovich, Flowers, Ealy, Rivers, Wise, Guy
3 DT Brown, Branch, Valentine
5 LB Hightower, Van Noy, McClellan, Roberts/Freeney/UDFA
5 CB Gilmore, Butler, Rowe, Coleman, C Jones
3 S McCourty, Chung, Harmon
3 ST Ebner, King, J Jones

We could use a backup SS.
We could use a #4 biggie
An UDFA or two will likely make the defense or special teams.

 

[maineman209]

DEFENSE (25)
6 DE Ninkovich, Flowers, Ealy, Rivers, Wise, Guy
3 DT Brown, Branch, Valentine
5 LB Hightower, Van Noy, McClellan, Roberts/Freeney/UDFA
5 CB Gilmore, Butler, Rowe, Coleman, C Jones
3 S McCourty, Chung, Harmon
3 ST Ebner, King, J Jones

We could use a backup SS.
We could use a #4 biggie
An UDFA or two will likely make the defense or special teams.

Langi could replace Freeny. Bates is a possibility.

Jason Thompson, UDFA, Utah. Listed as FS. 6014/210

4.45/40 ... 1.50/10-yd split
39.5/vert ... 133/long jump
4.01/ss ... 6.57/3-cone
20 bench reps

Second highest SPARQ score (144) in the entire draft, 2.7 standard deviations above the average SPARQ score for safeties. You can guess who was first.

 

[tasmlab]

Is carrying 3 QBs a "lock"? BB has rarely done it in the last decade, with the Brady suspension and 2008 being the justified exceptions. (OK, 2007 and 2011 too)

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Jason Thompson, UDFA, Utah. Listed as FS. 6014/210

4.45/40 ... 1.50/10-yd split
39.5/vert ... 133/long jump
4.01/ss ... 6.57/3-cone
20 bench reps

Second highest SPARQ score (144) in the entire draft, 2.7 standard deviations above the average SPARQ score for safeties. You can guess who was first.

Full list is here - Jason Thompson very comfortably in second place, way better than the average NFL safety on this measure:

Safety

So only question now is whether he can actually play safety or not.

 

[BTTA]

MG, thanks for doing this (again). These roster posts are the backbone of the message board, around which everything else orbits during the off-season.

We are going to face more disappointment this year than ever before. The lower round draft picks, and UDFA's, that show up and outperform our expectations in training camp, haven't even emerged yet. There are usually 6-8 of them. How and where in the world will they fit on this 53? We'll either have to let them go to other teams, or say goodbye to some beloved champions like Nink, Develin...ugh.

Almost anyone is upgradable. And I understand that some of these could be beaten out for a roster spot. However, I think it reasonable to focus on the last 6 roster spots. A couple of more could be consider open (Ealy? Andrews) but I don't see them being beaten out. Obviously, we almost always sign a free agent to upgrade positions beyond the six I listed. I find it extremely unlikely that any of the 46 would be beaten out by an UDFA or even by a JAG signing.

OFFENSE (22)
3 QB Brady, Garappolo, Brisset
5 WR Cooks, Edelman, Hogan, Mitchell, Amendola (includes punt returners)
4 RB Gillislee, White, Burkhead, Lewis
1 FB Develin
2 TE Gronkowksi, Allen
3 OT Solder, Cannon, Garcia
2 OG Thuney, Mason
1 C Andrews
1 ST Slater

The open spots are on the OL and the #3 TE (if there is one).

DEFENSE (22)
8 DL Flowers, Guy, Brown, Branch, Valentine, Ealy, Rivers, Wise
4 LB Hightower, Ninkovich, McClellan, Van Noy
4 CB Gilmore, Butler, Rowe, C Jones
3 S McCourty, Chung, Harmon
3 ST Ebner, J Jones, King

We need an addition DT, a corner, a STer and perhaps a SS.

SPECIALISTS (3)
3 SPEC Gostkowski, Allen, Cordona

 

[Dexter]

Full list is here - Jason Thompson very comfortably in second place, way better than the average NFL safety on this measure:

Safety

So only question now is whether he can actually play safety or not.

He barely played safety at college so I doubt that changes at pro level. If he makes it, it's gonna be as a core special teamer.

 

[mgteich]

MG, thanks for doing this (again). These roster posts are the backbone of the message board, around which everything else orbits during the off-season.

We are going to face more disappointment this year than ever before. The lower round draft picks, and UDFA's, that show up and outperform our expectations in training camp, haven't even emerged yet. There are usually 6-8 of them. How and where in the world will they fit on this 53? We'll either have to let them go to other teams, or say goodbye to some beloved champions like Nink, Develin...ugh.

Yes, we will be disappointed with almost every upgrade, because it means saying goodbye to a quality player. Losing 6-8 on this list will likely happen, as you say.

 

[mgteich]

Is carrying 3 QBs a "lock"? BB has rarely done it in the last decade, with the Brady suspension and 2008 being the justified exceptions. (OK, 2007 and 2011 too)

You have a different approach than I do. I start with the current roster. You start with the averages from history.

For example, look at WR. I say that carrying these 6 WR is a lock. One could get injured or traded. That is always possible. However, as of now, we will carry these 6. And, no, we don't usually carry six.

 

[meatface]

Lewis had already gotten his extension.

His salary this year is $1.2 Million and he is a free agent at the end of the year. I don't think his 200k in Dead money would be the biggest hindrance

 

[Ivan]

His salary this year is $1.2 Million and he is a free agent at the end of the year. I don't think his 200k in Dead money would be the biggest hindrance

I don't think the money is the issue I was simply pointing out that he had already been extended. The issue is the unique skill set, I can't remember them having a back like him. He can run inside and out and he's an excellent receiver. The East is loaded at DL and Lewis is the answer against those lines as he makes them run sideline to sideline all day, and there's no way they get rid of him if he return to 2915 form. He's a really valuable RB at a bargain price. There's no way they get rid of him imo.

 

[meatface]

I don't think the money is the issue I was simply pointing out that he had already been extended. The issue is the unique skill set, I can't remember them having a back like him. He can run inside and out and he's an excellent receiver. The East is loaded at DL and Lewis is the answer against those lines as he makes them run sideline to sideline all day, and there's no way they get rid of him if he return to 2915 form. He's a really valuable RB at a bargain price. There's no way they get rid of him imo.

I'm not saying he is going to be cut, I'm just saying that I dont think he is a lock and if the Patriots liked him as much as you do they would have probably offered him the extension they just gave to White.

 

[Ivan]

I'm not saying he is going to be cut, I'm just saying that I dont think he is a lock and if the Patriots liked him as much as you do they would have probably offered him the extension they just gave to White.

They extended him before he got injured. If he's healthy he's on the roster.

 

[mgteich]

They extended him before he got injured. If he's healthy he's on the roster.

Yeah, if Lewis is healthy throughout the workouts, rookie and training camps and through the pre-season, he will likely make the roster. That's a long time for Lewis to remain healthy.

The reality is that Lewis is very likely to be injured for much of the season. HOWEVER, because of his very low salary, he is worth keeping on the roster. He could be used a lot in some games, depending on matchup. What is really different in 2017 is that we are likely to have a fine running game, even when Lewis isn't there, after spending lots of cap money on running backs, something Belichick chose not to afford in the past. This year, Belichick won't be caught without backups this year at RB.

BOTTOM LINE
Lewis is a low-cost contributor, a specialty of Belichick's rosters.