2nd + 3rd = 5 years of poor defensive selections

[Fencer]

I don't think any GM is a particular genius at trading picks, although BB did have a surprisingly long run of trading picks into future years at very high rates of "interest".

So it's fair to evaluate draft results by:

• Looking at all the picks in each range of draft positions, for some reasonable partitioning of same.
• Comparing the return-per-pick to league averages in each range.

I think most people would agree that BB has done unusually well with first round picks, in general or in the top half of the round or in the bottom half of the round or whatever. Seymour is a potential HOFer in the top part of the first. Wilfork is a potential HOFer in the bottom part. Mayo, Mankins, McCourty, Vollmer, Solder, Warren and to some extent Grahambo all earned or look likely to earn "excellent player deserving of large amounts of money" status, with lots of post-season honors. Meriweather may be the worst 2-time Pro Bowler in the history of the NFL; still, he was a 2-time Pro Bowler. Etc.


As we've discussed, the 2nd round has been an odd split, with offensive picks averaging out very well (Johnson/Jackson notwithstanding), while defensive picks haven't been so great.


The 3rd round has been blah, with nobody so far making it past JAG starter level (Hobbs, Kaczur, et al.)


The 4th round has been stellar -- Asante, Ahern (even though he didn't last long), Jarvis Green, Gostowski, Sanders, some JAG RT starters, etc.


The late rounds are super-stellar just because of Brady, but even if you leave him out you get Koppen, Cassell, Dennard, Givens, and a variety of useful JAGs.


UDFAs have gone pretty well too, although rarely above the "weak starter" level. (Unless I'm forgetting somebody, Neal was the best of the bunch.)


Taking that all together, it seems pretty good to me.

 

[patsfanincleveland]

When you put it that way you really opened my eyes, I have to assume you’re a school teacher.



So based on that analogy Aaron Hernandez defense should be that he had more friends than most people so it’s ok that he murdered one of them. My analysis is idiot and dumb though….ok

I am not debating that Belichick does a good job stockpiling picks, and I am not debating that he did a good job drafting players like Gronkowski and Vollmer, but that doesn’t excuse his poor selections.

Let’s exclude 2013’s selections and look at all players drafted from 2008 thru 2012 in the second and third rounds:

1. Wheatley – cut
2. Crable – cut
3. O’Connell – cut
4. Chung – not resigned
5. Brace – cut
6. Butler – cut
7. Vollmer – starter
8. Tate – cut
9. McKenzie – cut
10. Gronkowski – starter
11. Cunningham – cut
12. Spikes – starter
13. Price – cut
14. Dowling – cut
15. Vereen – on roster
16. Ridley – starter
17. Mallett – on roster
18. Wilson – on roster
19. Bequette – on roster

So of the nineteen players selected:

• Four players are starters for 21.05%
• Eight players are on the roster for 42.105%

The purpose of my post was to discuss defensive players selected in those two rounds; eleven of the nineteen players were defensive players:

• One player is a starter for 9.09%
• Three players are on the roster for 27.27%



Agreed



I love Gronkowski but he is not the best skill guy in the NFL, Calvin Johnson Jr. and Adrian Peterson are easily ahead of him, not to mention if he doesn’t stay on the field (which is what caused his drop to the second round) it doesn’t matter how good or skillful he is.



A starting LB who has played less snaps this season than UDFA backup Joe Vellano.



Shane Vereen has played nineteen career games for a total of 616 total yards since the start of 2011, that is an average of 32.42 yards per game and you used the word “dynamic". Nobody makes the injured list as dynamically as Shane Vereen.



Tavon Wilson is on the roster and is a safety, but he has also played 1 of 138 snaps this season.



What is the quality time? We generally keep quality players.



ESPN disagrees and so do I, if you have the picks you should are judged on what you do with them, it’s not ok for a company to throw millions of dollars out the window just because they have more money than another company.



That’s actually funny, really funny in fact, but if the opposite of my analysis is your analysis I am PROUD to call it DUMB.

You are wasting everyone's time

 

[RayClay]

Outside of the first half of the first round, the draft really is a crap shoot and people should really quit twisting themselves into knots thinking they can pick immature humans like they are machine parts on an assembly line.

I'll bet there are teams who picked as high as the first round for a pass rusher who are going to wonder why they didn't pick Michael Buchanan instead. Same for Sudfeld.

Trading down twice for McCourty allowed them multiple 2nds to take a chance on Gronkowski's back, which they wouldn't have in the first.

The Patriots couldn't care less about filling out your draft board, in fact more players at lower positions gives them better odds for success and saves money.

Who knows if they had traded down from Maroney and Chad Jackson, if they would have gained three picks that clicked?

How many years will Bill continue to draft from one of the worst spots in the draft and end up winning ten games or more and/or making the playoffs every year and still not know how to draft?

 

[RayClay]

I love Gronkowski but he is not the best skill guy in the NFL, Calvin Johnson Jr.

There's a lot of mention of Calvin Johnson. Fine player. He should be for a 2nd overall pick. Since they selected him, the Lions won 10 games once, 7 or less the rest, including a zero.

Plus, to get one great receiver, they picked wideouts three years previous to that draft, burning a 2nd, 7th and ten overall for WRs ranging from mediocre to total bust.

I think we should absolutely compare Belichick's drafting to every other teams, weighting for original draft position, with the only result that matters, wins and playoff appearances per year.

When you mention all these great players, mention how much they cost in contract and draft position and how much they helped their team win.

 

[DarrylS]

There's a lot of mention of Calvin Johnson. Fine player. He should be for a 2nd overall pick. Since they selected him, the Lions won 10 games once, 7 or less the rest, including a zero.

Plus, to get one great receiver, they picked wideouts three years previous to that draft, burning a 2nd, 7th and ten overall for WRs ranging from mediocre to total bust.

I think we should absolutely compare Belichick's drafting to every other teams, weighting for original draft position, with the only result that matters, wins and playoff appearances per year.

When you mention all these great players, mention how much they cost in contract and draft position and how much they helped their team win.

The argument about drafting means little unless it is compared to other teams.. and the Pats are in a unique position, as they have been drafting at the lower end of the order for quite a while now..

All these stand alone comments mean nothing, without context...

 

[Patradomous]

How the hell does Pete Carrol put together a man eating defense?

I guess Parcells was right. If you are the one cooking you ought to be buying some of the groceries.

Anybody notice seattles defense is leaps and bounds better than than the Pats defense?

 

[FalconHeavy]

How the hell does Pete Carrol put together a man eating defense?

I guess Parcells was right. If you are the one cooking you ought to be buying some of the groceries.

Anybody notice seattles defense is leaps and bounds better than than the Pats defense?

Didn't BB inherit any players from the carrol era drafting ?

 

[FalconHeavy]

When you put it that way you really opened my eyes, I have to assume you’re a school teacher.



So based on that analogy Aaron Hernandez defense should be that he had more friends than most people so it’s ok that he murdered one of them. My analysis is idiot and dumb though….ok

I am not debating that Belichick does a good job stockpiling picks, and I am not debating that he did a good job drafting players like Gronkowski and Vollmer, but that doesn’t excuse his poor selections.

Let’s exclude 2013’s selections and look at all players drafted from 2008 thru 2012 in the second and third rounds:

1. Wheatley – cut
2. Crable – cut
3. O’Connell – cut
4. Chung – not resigned
5. Brace – cut
6. Butler – cut
7. Vollmer – starter
8. Tate – cut
9. McKenzie – cut
10. Gronkowski – starter
11. Cunningham – cut
12. Spikes – starter
13. Price – cut
14. Dowling – cut
15. Vereen – on roster
16. Ridley – starter
17. Mallett – on roster
18. Wilson – on roster
19. Bequette – on roster

So of the nineteen players selected:

• Four players are starters for 21.05%
• Eight players are on the roster for 42.105%

The purpose of my post was to discuss defensive players selected in those two rounds; eleven of the nineteen players were defensive players:

• One player is a starter for 9.09%
• Three players are on the roster for 27.27%



Agreed



I love Gronkowski but he is not the best skill guy in the NFL, Calvin Johnson Jr. and Adrian Peterson are easily ahead of him, not to mention if he doesn’t stay on the field (which is what caused his drop to the second round) it doesn’t matter how good or skillful he is.



A starting LB who has played less snaps this season than UDFA backup Joe Vellano.



Shane Vereen has played nineteen career games for a total of 616 total yards since the start of 2011, that is an average of 32.42 yards per game and you used the word “dynamic". Nobody makes the injured list as dynamically as Shane Vereen.



Tavon Wilson is on the roster and is a safety, but he has also played 1 of 138 snaps this season.



What is the quality time? We generally keep quality players.



ESPN disagrees and so do I, if you have the picks you should are judged on what you do with them, it’s not ok for a company to throw millions of dollars out the window just because they have more money than another company.


.

OK, I lost you right there...

 

[Bobs My Uncle]

Bob's not my uncle but I wish he was....

Everyone should have a Bob for an uncle.

 

[DarrylS]

How the hell does Pete Carrol put together a man eating defense?

I guess Parcells was right. If you are the one cooking you ought to be buying some of the groceries.

Anybody notice seattles defense is leaps and bounds better than than the Pats defense?

By having good draft picks and a dash of luck..

During the same time frame we have has some very good picks as well..

New England Patriots..
2010..McCourty(27), Gronkowski(42), Cunningham(53) and Spikes(62), Price(90) and Hernandez(113)
2011...Solder(17), Dowling(33), Vereen(56), Ridley (73) and Mallett (74)
2012... Jones(21), Hightower(25), Wilson (48) and Bequette(90)
2013... Collins(53), Dobson (59), Ryan(83) and Harmon(91)

It is the shiny beads mentality, last week after the Philadelphia game everyone wanted Chip Kelly to be our coach.. folks need to take a look at the long view here..

 

[Brady6]

You are wasting everyone's time

I disagree for 3 reasons:

1. I have actually had several people who said they’re glad I opened the thread, 2 people actually sent me a PM to convey their thoughts.

2. It is a relevant discussion when you consider Tavon Wilson and Jake Bequette who were selected in the second and third round in 12’ have combined to play 1 defensive snap, and Jamie Collins, Logan Ryan and Duron Harmon who were selected in the second and third rounds this year have combined to play 16 defensive snaps this season. Add to that the fact the only defensive player drafted in the second or third round in 11’ Ras-I Dowling being cut in the preseason in the last 3 drafts we have selected 6 players who have combined to play 17 of a possible 136 defensive snaps this season which equates to all 6 players combined playing 12.5% of the teams snaps, or you could look at it in terms of all 6 of these second and third round selections over the last 3 years combining to play 26 less defensive snaps than rookie UDFA Joe Vellano. If that is not worthy of discussing on a Patriots forum site, please tell me what is?

3. I don’t know if you know this or not but this thread is not mandatory, so the only time being used on it is by people who choose by their own free will to participate in it. Furthermore I am not sure what makes you an authority to determine what is considered wasting time for anyone on here other than yourself.

Thanks for playing though really, this thread need someone who concludes on others behalf and assume their opinion is the only opinion so they make broad statements with the words “idiot”, “dumb”, “wasting” and, combine it with the use of words like “everyone” and “proper”.

 

[Brady6]

There's a lot of mention of Calvin Johnson. Fine player. He should be for a 2nd overall pick. Since they selected him, the Lions won 10 games once, 7 or less the rest, including a zero.

Plus, to get one great receiver, they picked wideouts three years previous to that draft, burning a 2nd, 7th and ten overall for WRs ranging from mediocre to total bust.

I think we should absolutely compare Belichick's drafting to every other teams, weighting for original draft position, with the only result that matters, wins and playoff appearances per year.

When you mention all these great players, mention how much they cost in contract and draft position and how much they helped their team win.

I totally agree that Calvin Johnson Jr. should be an elite player being that he was the second overall selection in the 07’ draft.

As far as where Belichick spending less and getting more I am not sure that is true:

• Calvin Johnson Jr. just entered his seventh year in the league, during that time he has played in all but 4 games, so the Lions spent more on Johnson Jr. than we spent on Gronkowski but they’re also getting a lot more of Johnson Jr. than we’ve been getting of Gronkowski, look at it in the analogy of buying a vacation home or buying a time share they’re both just as nice but the time share costs less because you get less of it.
• Johnson Jr. plays wide receiver and Gronkowski plays tight end, and whether I agree with it or not teams value wide receivers in the draft higher than they value tight ends, an analogy for that would be the difference between living in Brookline or Charlestown, the house is just as nice and has the same amenities but you’re paying extra for Brookline because of where it is.
• From the 2003 to the 2012 NFL draft there were only 15 tight ends drafted higher than 42nd overall where Gronkowski was selected in 2010, to put that in perspective in that same period there were 38 wide receivers drafted just in the first round of the draft. So yes we got a great tight end but we didn’t spend much less on him than the market cost for a tight end.

 

[Brady6]

OK, I lost you right there...

It is what it is

 

[jmt57]

How the hell does Pete Carrol put together a man eating defense?

I guess Parcells was right. If you are the one cooking you ought to be buying some of the groceries.

Anybody notice seattles defense is leaps and bounds better than than the Pats defense?

When you have four consecutive losing seasons, you get to draft in the top half of all seven rounds for four straight years.

On top of that because Seattle was an inferior team, they had fewer big contract players on their payroll. That makes it easier to sign veteran free agents, and retain their own players.

Once you take all that into consideration, there is no reason for a team in a situation like Seattle not to have built a very good club, or at least one of the league's best on whichever side of the ball they chose to focus on (in this case defense).

Given the realities of the salary cap, free agency, and draft order, it should not be a surprise whatsoever that a bad team gets better. Teams that stay good or that stay bad are the anomalies, good teams getting worse and bad teams getting better should be the expected norm.

2012: Seahawks had the 12th pick; Pats #31
2011: Seahawks had the 25th pick; Pats #28
2010: Seahawks had the 6th pick; Pats #22
2009: Seahawks had the 4th pick; Pats #23​

Considering that disparity, there's really no excuse for them to have not built a better defense.

 

[Brady6]

When you have four consecutive losing seasons, you get to draft in the top half of all seven rounds for four straight years.

On top of that because Seattle was an inferior team, they had fewer big contract players on their payroll. That makes it easier to sign veteran free agents, and retain their own players.

Once you take all that into consideration, there is no reason for a team in a situation like Seattle not to have built a very good club, or at least one of the league's best on whichever side of the ball they chose to focus on (in this case defense).

Given the realities of the salary cap, free agency, and draft order, it should not be a surprise whatsoever that a bad team gets better. Teams that stay good or that stay bad are the anomalies, good teams getting worse and bad teams getting better should be the expected norm.

2012: Seahawks had the 12th pick; Pats #31
2011: Seahawks had the 25th pick; Pats #28
2010: Seahawks had the 6th pick; Pats #22
2009: Seahawks had the 4th pick; Pats #23​

Considering that disparity, there's really no excuse for them to have not built a better defense.

In fairness to Seattle they’ve made some nice finds in the draft as well:


Red Bryant – Rnd 4 | Pick 121 in 2008
Kam Chancellor –Rnd 5 | Pick 133 in 2010
K.J. Wright – Rnd 4 | Pick 99 in 2011
Richard Sherman – Rnd 5 | Pick 154 in 2011
Bobby Wagner – Rnd 2 | Pick 47 in 2012
Russell Wilson – Rnd 3 | Pick 75 in 2012

It is important to note that Seattle has a general manager John Schneider, so I am not sure I would give the credit for player selection to Carroll.

What is interesting though is how little they’ve done with the picks you mentioned:

09’ Aaron Curry
10’ Okung
11’ Carpenter
12’ Irvin

Only Okung has developed into a starter, Curry the highest pick of all was a complete bust for them lasting on 2+ seasons in Seattle.

 

[Brady6]

By having good draft picks and a dash of luck..

During the same time frame we have has some very good picks as well..

New England Patriots..
2010..McCourty(27), Gronkowski(42), Cunningham(53) and Spikes(62), Price(90) and Hernandez(113)
2011...Solder(17), Dowling(33), Vereen(56), Ridley (73) and Mallett (74)
2012... Jones(21), Hightower(25), Wilson (48) and Bequette(90)
2013... Collins(53), Dobson (59), Ryan(83) and Harmon(91)

It is the shiny beads mentality, last week after the Philadelphia game everyone wanted Chip Kelly to be our coach.. folks need to take a look at the long view here..

In my opinion this is the fundamental problem that creates so many heated discussions in a thread such as this one, the belief that by highlighting a shortcoming of what Belichick does equates to the posters opinion of Belichick being negative or the poster being unappreciative of what Belichick as a coach or general manager. That is not always the case, I for one think very highly of Belichick as both a coach and a general manager, I also recognize and appreciate how fortunate I am to have him as the coach and general manager of my hometown team and the team I am dedicated to as a fan. My questioning one component of what he does in an effort to identify what could be leading to these misses in the second and third rounds of the draft should not be perceived as anything other than discussing how the team could improve one component of what it does.

Belichick wins and that is #1 of course, but it doesn’t mean he is beyond improvement, or growth. I am not sure if you play the stock market, but I do and there are companies like Apple who each quarter put up amazing growth and improvements, yet every quarter the current CEO Tim Cook (in the past Steve Jobs) take to the podium at their quarterly meetings and highlights metrics and components they will work to improve in the following quarter. This is not indicative of Tim Cook ****ting on his company or his employees, this is indicative of Tim Cook recognizing that being the best company does not excuse his team from attempting to improve or furthering their growth and development.

My message is the same as a fan, Belichick is an awesome coach, the best to ever do it in my opinion, and when I question his drafting of second and third round defensive players there should not be a misconception that I think lowly of Belichick or I do not appreciate his efforts, if I opened a thread that was titled “Time for a new head coach” or “Belichick is the worst drafter in history” then I could understand the belief that I was disappointed or displeased with Belichick.

Sorry for the rant, I just felt like this had to be said not even necessarily in response to you post just overall.

 

[Ivan]

I disagree for 3 reasons:

1. I have actually had several people who said they’re glad I opened the thread, 2 people actually sent me a PM to convey their thoughts.

2. It is a relevant discussion when you consider Tavon Wilson and Jake Bequette who were selected in the second and third round in 12’ have combined to play 1 defensive snap, and Jamie Collins, Logan Ryan and Duron Harmon who were selected in the second and third rounds this year have combined to play 16 defensive snaps this season. Add to that the fact the only defensive player drafted in the second or third round in 11’ Ras-I Dowling being cut in the preseason in the last 3 drafts we have selected 6 players who have combined to play 17 of a possible 136 defensive snaps this season which equates to all 6 players combined playing 12.5% of the teams snaps, or you could look at it in terms of all 6 of these second and third round selections over the last 3 years combining to play 26 less defensive snaps than rookie UDFA Joe Vellano. If that is not worthy of discussing on a Patriots forum site, please tell me what is?

3. I don’t know if you know this or not but this thread is not mandatory, so the only time being used on it is by people who choose by their own free will to participate in it. Furthermore I am not sure what makes you an authority to determine what is considered wasting time for anyone on here other than yourself.

Thanks for playing though really, this thread need someone who concludes on others behalf and assume their opinion is the only opinion so they make broad statements with the words “idiot”, “dumb”, “wasting” and, combine it with the use of words like “everyone” and “proper”.

What makes it useless imo is that you are deliberately cherry picking to get a desired result. You aren't looking at the entirety of their drafting nor are you looking at the context of it both in terms of where they pick every year or how they do when compared to the rest off the NFL or even those who have to routinely select where they have to every draft. Like every other team the Patriots have their share of misses, but you focus just on the misses and ignore the mass of good picks as well as the UDFA successes they have every year, and that actually is part of the draft process even though it isn't using picks but relies upon their scouting to get good players from those classes who went undrafted. feel free to focus on the negative all you want but don't be surprised when your credibility is challenged because you follow an agenda to reach your conclusion. Bottom line, the Patriots have stayed at the top of the NFL and have been the most successful franchise in the league for over ten years because of their player selection, as they clearly have not relied upon free agency to maintain their success and have managed to repeatedly rebuild around Brady without dropping off and without blowing their cap due to free agency excesses.

A 10 year comprehensive study of the NFL as a whole concluded that the Patriots and ravens were the two best teams in terms of drafting, and that didn't include the disadvantage they face due to their consistent success.

 

[Brady6]

What makes it useless imo is that you are deliberately cherry picking to get a desired result. You aren't looking at the entirety of their drafting nor are you looking at the context of it both in terms of where they pick every year or how they do when compared to the rest off the NFL or even those who have to routinely select where they have to every draft. Like every other team the Patriots have their share of misses, but you focus just on the misses and ignore the mass of good picks as well as the UDFA successes they have every year, and that actually is part of the draft process even though it isn't using picks but relies upon their scouting to get good players from those classes who went undrafted. feel free to focus on the negative all you want but don't be surprised when your credibility is challenged because you follow an agenda to reach your conclusion. Bottom line, the Patriots have stayed at the top of the NFL and have been the most successful franchise in the league for over ten years because of their player selection, as they clearly have not relied upon free agency to maintain their success and have managed to repeatedly rebuild around Brady without dropping off and without blowing their cap due to free agency excesses.

A 10 year comprehensive study of the NFL as a whole concluded that the Patriots and ravens were the two best teams in terms of drafting, and that didn't include the disadvantage they face due to their consistent success.

I am not cherry pick anything I am isolating problems, which is the only way to identify factors that lead to them. If we have a discussion about drafting as a whole it disguises the issue by diminishing the value of 1 or 2 bad selections, if you look at rounds, and positions you see that there is a very real issue with the draft strategy for defensive players in the second and third round.

People who want to ignore weak point will always look at things on a broader scope because in any organization that is strong the strengths will always overwhelm, people who want to identify weakness in an effort to improve them will break them down into smaller metrics. Have you ever heard of the Hedgehog concept, if not take a look at the link below, this is a formula that many large enterprise level companies take in order to continue grow and be successful.

Hedgehog Concept

Ivan I am sure Belichick would agree with that you can always be better, look at Brady he works with a coach all year to identify flaws in his mechanics so even at age 36 he can continue to improve and develop. The seeds of failure are grown during the good times my friend.

 

[reflexblue]

The pats have drafted Nine defensive backs in the last five years in rounds One, Two and Three. Only One is a starter ....Mccourty and hes a started at a position he wasn't drafted. I look at the bottom line, nothing weighted etc. I don't care if you pick in the 20's every year when you can only produce One starting DB somethings wrong. A team should be able to get more than one quality player in the first three rounds over Five years at a certain position. And if we even father back lets say Ten years its even worse. Now ive said this before i think BB maybe the greatest coach of all time, and the amount of wins he averages every year with personel he has is amazing. But what ever the parameters are that are used in selecting DB.s and WR's its not working. If we look at WR's, only One has panned out, and you have to go back to 2002 and the selection of Branch in the second round.

 

[moosekill]

Well thank God we have you here to help Bill figure out what he is doing wrong and what he should do to change!!!!!!