2nd + 3rd = 5 years of poor defensive selections

[Brady6]

I admitted to making a mistake. I'm human. If you can't accept that, then you are the issue.

As for everything else, I'm dead on and you've proven that.

Wow you’re really taking this trolling thing to far, like seriously you commented every post in this thread by me.

Let me explain something to you in, I opened a thread to discuss the 2nd and 3rd round draft selections by Belichick and his staff over the last 5 years, I did not open one to talk about anything else, so I do not have any freaking clue what you’re talking about but you sound ridiculous and your humiliating yourself with this barrage of nonsense. You’re attempting to take my OP intended to discuss defensive players in 2 rounds of the draft into a broader discussion simply to add a level of merit to your argument.

What is really comical is that you completely ignored or refused to answer my question to you which was, do you feel Belichick and his staff have done a good job drafting defensive players in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the draft over the last 5 years? We both know you ignored that because you know he hasn’t and you’re just disagreeing with me because you don’t like me because of some dispute over my seeing value in Marquise Cole, you were wrong in that discussion just like you’re wrong here, you should let both topics go and follow someone else around the forum trying to get the last word because unlike you I am not trying to win a fight, I am have a discussion with other educated forum members using logical, and facts to conclude discussions.

So please stop, I don’t know what your beef is but it is unnecessary, I even attempted to take this out of the thread and into PM, but you did not respond because that would have worked against your goal of public recognition, then I attempted to apologize in this thread for my behavior if it offended you in any way, which you ignored and kept going and going, you need to STOP you’re out of control and contributing nothing to this conversation.

 

[Keyser Söze]

Except, you know? Superbowls,

how many without Pioli?

 

[borg]

We've come a LONG way though from the Monty Biesel/ Chad Brown depleted LB days.....now we have some elite lb's :

Mayo
Ninko
Jones
Spikes
Hightower
Collins

Just curious which players above qualify as elite LBs and why are Jones and Ninko labelled LBs?

 

[DaBruinz]

Wow you’re really taking this trolling thing to far, like seriously you commented every post in this thread by me.

You clearly don't know the meaning of trolling and No I haven't responded to every one of your posts.

Let me explain something to you in, I opened a thread to discuss the 2nd and 3rd round draft selections by Belichick and his staff over the last 5 years, I did not open one to talk about anything else, so I do not have any freaking clue what you’re talking about but you sound ridiculous and your humiliating yourself with this barrage of nonsense. You’re attempting to take my OP intended to discuss defensive players in 2 rounds of the draft into a broader discussion simply to add a level of merit to your argument.

You opened a thread whining about what the Pats have done with 13 draft picks over a 6 year period, including the two most recent years of picks.

What is really comical is that you completely ignored or refused to answer my question to you which was, do you feel Belichick and his staff have done a good job drafting defensive players in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the draft over the last 5 years? We both know you ignored that because you know he hasn’t and you’re just disagreeing with me because you don’t like me because of some dispute over my seeing value in Marquise Cole, you were wrong in that discussion just like you’re wrong here, you should let both topics go and follow someone else around the forum trying to get the last word because unlike you I am not trying to win a fight, I am have a discussion with other educated forum members using logical, and facts to conclude discussions.

Your question about what I feel regarding Belichick's staff and what they have done is irrelevant to your OP and that is why it was ignored.

Your whole theory is BS because it's based on ignoring huge amounts of data that run contrary to your theory.

And your assumption that I am disagreeing with you because of the Marquise Cole situation is just as laughable as your stance that he's a good player on special teams.

So please stop, I don’t know what your beef is but it is unnecessary, I even attempted to take this out of the thread and into PM, but you did not respond because that would have worked against your goal of public recognition, then I attempted to apologize in this thread for my behavior if it offended you in any way, which you ignored and kept going and going, you need to STOP you’re out of control and contributing nothing to this conversation.

You are the one who just needs to stop because you are the one ignoring what people have brought up. I've contributed plenty to the conversation. So much so that I destroyed your theory that the Patriots have spent too many assets on the Defense to the detriment of the offense.

 

[DaBruinz]

With one very major exception, I think that's a true claim. Used draft picks were documented elsewhere in the thread; trade picks narrow the gap but not so much as to change the conclusion.

The exception is money spent on re-signing our own players. The extensions for Brady, Gronk, Hernandez, Mankins and Vollmer dwarf the extensions on the defensive side of the ball.

The above would all be even more true had Welker and his agent not screwed up.

Except that it's not, Fencer. The Pats have spent plenty of capital (money, draft picks, trades) on the offense. I proved that with the list of UFAs that the Pats have signed.

 

[Brady6]

Edited: deleted

 

[Brady6]

Except that it's not, Fencer. The Pats have spent plenty of capital (money, draft picks, trades) on the offense. I proved that with the list of UFAs that the Pats have signed.

Edited: deleted

 

[patsfanincleveland]

I have the highest regard for Belichick, if someone asked me to name a public figure I idolized it would likely be him that said I cannot ignore that he is doing something wrong in the second and third rounds of the draft in the last 5 years when he drafts defensive players.

• 08’ second round selection Terrence Wheatley was released during the 2010 season.
• 08’ third round selection Shaun Crable was released prior to the 2010 season.
• 09’ second round selection Pat Chung not resigned after spending last season as third on the depth chart.
• 09’ second round selection Ron Brace was released during last season.
• 09’ second round selection Darius Butler was released prior to the 11’ season.
• 09’ third round selection Tyrone McKenzie was released prior to the 10’ season.
• 10’ second round selection Jermaine Cunningham was waived injured in the preseason.
• 10’ second round selection Brandon Spikes has two tackles in 47 defensive snaps.
• 11’ second round selection Ras-I Dowling was released in preseason.
• 12’ second round selection Tavon Wilson has played one defensive snap.
• 12’ third round selection Jake Bequette has not played a defensive snap.
• 13’ second round selection Jamie Collins has played six defensive snaps.
• 13’ third round selection Logan Ryan has played two defensive snaps.
• 13’ third rounder selection Duron Harmon has played eight defensive snaps.

The only notable player is Spikes, who to this point provided an inconsistent performance over his tenure even when contributing. It just seems like Belichick and his staff are missing something, what do you all think it is?

Notice: There still is time for the 12’ and 13’ picks to become good draft selections.

The reason your are so upset is because you are stirring yourself up with idiot analysis.

In the years 2009-2012 the typical NFL franchise has had four (4) 2nd round picks.

In those four years, the Patriots acquired:

Best right tackle in football
Best tight end in football (actually best skill guy in football)
Starting MLB
Dynamic RB
Safety on roster.

....................via the second round.

Note that this does not include quality time from players not on the roster because Belichick continues to stockpile picks.

Above is the correct way to evaluate drafting.

Your analysis is totally dumb.

 

[DarrylS]

This is blasphemy but most teams have trouble with the draft, some do well, but most do just about the same.... Andrew Maybin is a classic example.

I did an analysis of what I considered comparable teams, it needs updating, but every team is pretty much in the same boat..

This needs updating, but it validates my point...

Steelers second round picks

2011.. Marcus Gilbert..OT currently starts for the Steelers
2010.. Jason Worilds.. playing ok, but seems to be a work in progress
2009.. no second round pick
2008.. Limus Sweed... has been waived
2007.. Lamar Woodley.. great pick
2006.. no second round pick

Miami's vaunted 2nd round picks..

2011...Daniel Thomas RB.. looks like a good pick
2010..Koa Missa. LB.. work in progress
2009..Pat White. QB... not in the game
2008..Phillip Merling.. not in the game
Chad Henne..
2007.. John Beck. QB...traded to the Redskins
Samson Satele.. C.. good pick
2006..no pick

The Jets absolutely wonderful 2nd round picks..

2011... no second round pick
2010.. Vladimir DuCasse
2009.. Shonn Greene
2008 .. no second round pick
2007.. David Harris
2006.. Kellen Clemens
2005... Mike Nugent
Justin Miller..


The Green Bay Packers recent 2ndround picks..

2011.. Randall Cobb
2010.. Mike Neal.. oft injuried
2009.. no second round pick
2008..Brian Brohm.. no longer in the NFL
Patrick lee.. marginal player
2007..Brandon Jackson.. marginal player now with the Browns.
2006...Darren Colledge..starting O lineman now with the Cardinals
Greg Jennings
2005..Nick Collins.. a pro bowler on IR
Terrence Murphy retired from the NFL..

 

[patsfanincleveland]

This is blasphemy but most teams have trouble with the draft, some do well, but most do just about the same.... Andrew Maybin is a classic example.

I did an analysis of what I considered comparable teams, it needs updating, but every team is pretty much in the same boat..

This needs updating, but it validates my point...

Steelers second round picks

2011.. Marcus Gilbert..OT currently starts for the Steelers
2010.. Jason Worilds.. playing ok, but seems to be a work in progress
2009.. no second round pick
2008.. Limus Sweed... has been waived
2007.. Lamar Woodley.. great pick
2006.. no second round pick

Miami's vaunted 2nd round picks..

2011...Daniel Thomas RB.. looks like a good pick
2010..Koa Missa. LB.. work in progress
2009..Pat White. QB... not in the game
2008..Phillip Merling.. not in the game
Chad Henne..
2007.. John Beck. QB...traded to the Redskins
Samson Satele.. C.. good pick
2006..no pick

The Jets absolutely wonderful 2nd round picks..

2011... no second round pick
2010.. Vladimir DuCasse
2009.. Shonn Greene
2008 .. no second round pick
2007.. David Harris
2006.. Kellen Clemens
2005... Mike Nugent
Justin Miller..


The Green Bay Packers recent 2ndround picks..

2011.. Randall Cobb
2010.. Mike Neal.. oft injuried
2009.. no second round pick
2008..Brian Brohm.. no longer in the NFL
Patrick lee.. marginal player
2007..Brandon Jackson.. marginal player now with the Browns.
2006...Darren Colledge..starting O lineman now with the Cardinals
Greg Jennings
2005..Nick Collins.. a pro bowler on IR
Terrence Murphy retired from the NFL..

Outstanding

Since the teams above aren't active on draft day...........a lack of extra picks means those teams have to keep players longer than the Patriots would have to.

If you really want to judge talent evaluation, go back a few years and see how many releases each team had claimed off waivers/signed.

 

[Brady6]

The reason your are so upset is because you are stirring yourself up with idiot analysis.

When you put it that way you really opened my eyes, I have to assume you’re a school teacher.

In the years 2009-2012 the typical NFL franchise has had four (4) 2nd round picks.

So based on that analogy Aaron Hernandez defense should be that he had more friends than most people so it’s ok that he murdered one of them. My analysis is idiot and dumb though….ok

I am not debating that Belichick does a good job stockpiling picks, and I am not debating that he did a good job drafting players like Gronkowski and Vollmer, but that doesn’t excuse his poor selections.

Let’s exclude 2013’s selections and look at all players drafted from 2008 thru 2012 in the second and third rounds:

1. Wheatley – cut
2. Crable – cut
3. O’Connell – cut
4. Chung – not resigned
5. Brace – cut
6. Butler – cut
7. Vollmer – starter
8. Tate – cut
9. McKenzie – cut
10. Gronkowski – starter
11. Cunningham – cut
12. Spikes – starter
13. Price – cut
14. Dowling – cut
15. Vereen – on roster
16. Ridley – starter
17. Mallett – on roster
18. Wilson – on roster
19. Bequette – on roster

So of the nineteen players selected:

• Four players are starters for 21.05%
• Eight players are on the roster for 42.105%

The purpose of my post was to discuss defensive players selected in those two rounds; eleven of the nineteen players were defensive players:

• One player is a starter for 9.09%
• Three players are on the roster for 27.27%

Best right tackle in football

Agreed

Best tight end in football (actually best skill guy in football)

I love Gronkowski but he is not the best skill guy in the NFL, Calvin Johnson Jr. and Adrian Peterson are easily ahead of him, not to mention if he doesn’t stay on the field (which is what caused his drop to the second round) it doesn’t matter how good or skillful he is.

Starting MLB

A starting LB who has played less snaps this season than UDFA backup Joe Vellano.

Dynamic RB

Shane Vereen has played nineteen career games for a total of 616 total yards since the start of 2011, that is an average of 32.42 yards per game and you used the word “dynamic". Nobody makes the injured list as dynamically as Shane Vereen.

Safety on roster.

Tavon Wilson is on the roster and is a safety, but he has also played 1 of 138 snaps this season.

Note that this does not include quality time from players not on the roster because Belichick continues to stockpile picks.

What is the quality time? We generally keep quality players.

Above is the correct way to evaluate drafting.

ESPN disagrees and so do I, if you have the picks you should are judged on what you do with them, it’s not ok for a company to throw millions of dollars out the window just because they have more money than another company.

Your analysis is totally dumb.

That’s actually funny, really funny in fact, but if the opposite of my analysis is your analysis I am PROUD to call it DUMB.

 

[Fencer]

Except that it's not, Fencer. The Pats have spent plenty of capital (money, draft picks, trades) on the offense. I proved that with the list of UFAs that the Pats have signed.

I suspect I overlooked your list. I apologize.

My quick estimate was that Thomas + a lot of CBs + a certain DT got more money than a variety of WRs and TEs. I was kind of overlooking that, besides picks, Moss, Welker and Ochocinco took up considerable salary money from the get-go, so it's possible I was wrong.

 

[Brady6]

This is blasphemy but most teams have trouble with the draft, some do well, but most do just about the same.... Andrew Maybin is a classic example.

I did an analysis of what I considered comparable teams, it needs updating, but every team is pretty much in the same boat..

This needs updating, but it validates my point...

Steelers second round picks

2011.. Marcus Gilbert..OT currently starts for the Steelers
2010.. Jason Worilds.. playing ok, but seems to be a work in progress
2009.. no second round pick
2008.. Limus Sweed... has been waived
2007.. Lamar Woodley.. great pick
2006.. no second round pick

Miami's vaunted 2nd round picks..

2011...Daniel Thomas RB.. looks like a good pick
2010..Koa Missa. LB.. work in progress
2009..Pat White. QB... not in the game
2008..Phillip Merling.. not in the game
Chad Henne..
2007.. John Beck. QB...traded to the Redskins
Samson Satele.. C.. good pick
2006..no pick

The Jets absolutely wonderful 2nd round picks..

2011... no second round pick
2010.. Vladimir DuCasse
2009.. Shonn Greene
2008 .. no second round pick
2007.. David Harris
2006.. Kellen Clemens
2005... Mike Nugent
Justin Miller..


The Green Bay Packers recent 2ndround picks..

2011.. Randall Cobb
2010.. Mike Neal.. oft injuried
2009.. no second round pick
2008..Brian Brohm.. no longer in the NFL
Patrick lee.. marginal player
2007..Brandon Jackson.. marginal player now with the Browns.
2006...Darren Colledge..starting O lineman now with the Cardinals
Greg Jennings
2005..Nick Collins.. a pro bowler on IR
Terrence Murphy retired from the NFL..

I never said Belichick did a poor job drafting second and third round players, I said he has done a poor job drafting defensive players in the second and third rounds in the last five years, and he has.

The Ravens drafted these defensive players in the second and third rounds in that period:

• Kruger – highest paid defensive player in 2013 FA by Browns
• Webb
• Cody
• Kindle – cut in 2012
• Upshaw
• Brown (R)
• Williams (R)


The 49ers drafted these defensive players in the second and third rounds in that period:

• Mays
• Bowman
• Cullivers
• Carradine (R)
• Lemonier (R)

The Packers drafted these defensive players in the second and third rounds in that period.

• Neal
• Burnett
• Worthly
• Hayward

The Bengals drafted these defensive players in the second and third rounds in that period:

• Maualuga – left in FA in 2013
• Johnson
• Dunlap
• Ghee – cut in 2011
• Moch – cut in 2012
• Still
• Thompson
• Hunt (R)
• Williams (R)

 

[Brady6]

You clearly don't know the meaning of trolling and No I haven't responded to every one of your posts.



You opened a thread whining about what the Pats have done with 13 draft picks over a 6 year period, including the two most recent years of picks.



Your question about what I feel regarding Belichick's staff and what they have done is irrelevant to your OP and that is why it was ignored.

Your whole theory is BS because it's based on ignoring huge amounts of data that run contrary to your theory.

And your assumption that I am disagreeing with you because of the Marquise Cole situation is just as laughable as your stance that he's a good player on special teams.




You are the one who just needs to stop because you are the one ignoring what people have brought up. I've contributed plenty to the conversation. So much so that I destroyed your theory that the Patriots have spent too many assets on the Defense to the detriment of the offense.

Why are you so aggressive that is what I cannot understand, like honestly if you’re such a brilliant poster who know so much about so many things why don’t you try and help or educate other posters? Instead you parade around here calling people names, making false accusations, and acting as if your opinion is the only opinion. If I was wrong I would be willing to admit it, but your delivery of what you’re attempting to convey to me and other members is so damn poor that it loses all merit before the end of the first paragraph.

There are no bonus points for putting down other members, or making them look like idiots, it will not gain you any respect or friendships, you will simply be labeled as an unpleasant person to converse with and much like I do people will dread hearing from you.

I am not telling you what to do, you’ve been here for posting for a long time, and maybe what you’re trying to convey to me is valid, but like I said I will never take the time to really consider the validity of it because of the way you delivered your message, therefore you’re just wasting your time, if you want to me to hear my opinion take the time to consider how you would want me to write a response to one of your posts even if I disagreed then use that approach when writing a post that quotes mine.

I did delete my previous posts to replace them with this, the reason is I am not going to play into this aggressive confrontation, as far as I am concerned this conversation is over, if you choose to continue to communicate with me or quote my posts in what I deem as a disrespectful or confrontational manner I will have to block you as a user, which I do not want to do because I learned after spending 8 years deployed oversees that everyone should be given an opportunity to be heard unless they continuously abuse that opportunity.

I hope you enjoy the rest of your weekend.

 

[jmt57]

Perhaps it is just me, but I feel as if the topic of the Patriots poor drafting/could'a should'a drafted better has been discussed, analyzed under a microscope and beaten to death over the last few years.

Probably against better judgement, but I will throw out a couple of thoughts:

Without a baseline, do we even know what is good or bad? In baseball if you miss 70% you are considered to be an all star batter. A hockey goalie succeeds in making a save on 89% of the shots he faces and he's out of a job.

What specific criteria constitutes a good pick or bad pick? How does one adjust for when the pick is made? Why is the 1st overall pick considered to be the same as the 32nd, yet the 32nd is considered to be completely different from the 33rd?

How have all the 31 other teams done over a long enough period of time to create a large enough sample size to make the evaluation worthwhile?





Let's take a two-team scenario. Team A trades up and ends up with three draft picks. One turns out to be a pro bowler; one an average starter; and one a backup and special teamer.

Team B trades back and ends up with ten picks. Their result is one pro bowler; one above average starter; two average starters; one backup/special teamer; and the other five never accomplish anything to speak of with the team.

So who had the better draft?

Many would say that Team A hit on 100% of their picks and had no busts while in comparison Team B hit on only 50% of their picks and 50% of their picks were busts; therefore Team A indisputably had a better draft.

In reality Team B had the better draft; here's why:
- Both teams had one pro bowler, so that's a wash
- Team B had one above average starter; Team A had none
- Team B had two average starters; Team A had only one
- Both teams had an equal number of backup/special teamers

 

[unoriginal]

2008
Calais Campbell
Charles Godfrey
Cliff Avril
Thomas DeCloud
Tyvon Branch

2009
Jarius Byrd
Connor Barwin*
William Moore
Fili Moala
Paul Kruger*
Sean Smith*
Michael Johnson
Derek Cox*
DeAndre Levy
Lardarius Webb
Jerraud Powers*
Rashad Johnson
Keenan Lewis*
Henry Melton

Of the years in question in this thread, the first two we can look at through the lens of whether the players drafted were either (a) re-signed by their current team after their rookie contract ran out or (b) was signed to a significant contract by another team after their rookie contract ran out, which I define as being equal to or better than the contract the Eagles gave Patrick Chung.

I believe the list above are all the defensive players taken +/- 16 spots of the Patriots's NORMAL DRAFT SLOT for that year in the 2nd and 3rd rounds that meet the above criteria. Asterisk players are ones not re-signed by their drafting team, but whom I felt the contracts were substantial enough to mark them as good players their drafting team couldn't fit under their cap.

The results are that in 2008, 5 out of 31 defensive players got a quality contract after their rookie contract. In 2009, 14 out of 38 defensive players did so. That's a total of 19 out of 69, or around 28%. Given that your average team will make four picks in two years, and half those will be devoted to offense, then your average team had around a 50/50 chance of having one of its two defensive picks play out their rookie contract.

The Patriots over that span were 0 for 3 (Wheatley, Crable, McKenzie). Based on the average, they should have been 1 for 3. Note that Chung, Brace, and Butler were not with 16 spots of the Patriots normal 2nd round draft slot for 2009, which was 58.

 

[jsull87]

I have the highest regard for Belichick, if someone asked me to name a public figure I idolized it would likely be him that said I cannot ignore that he is doing something wrong in the second and third rounds of the draft in the last 5 years when he drafts defensive players.

• 08’ second round selection Terrence Wheatley was released during the 2010 season.
• 08’ third round selection Shaun Crable was released prior to the 2010 season.
• 09’ second round selection Pat Chung not resigned after spending last season as third on the depth chart.
• 09’ second round selection Ron Brace was released during last season.
• 09’ second round selection Darius Butler was released prior to the 11’ season.
• 09’ third round selection Tyrone McKenzie was released prior to the 10’ season.
• 10’ second round selection Jermaine Cunningham was waived injured in the preseason.
• 10’ second round selection Brandon Spikes has two tackles in 47 defensive snaps.
• 11’ second round selection Ras-I Dowling was released in preseason.
• 12’ second round selection Tavon Wilson has played one defensive snap.
• 12’ third round selection Jake Bequette has not played a defensive snap.
• 13’ second round selection Jamie Collins has played six defensive snaps.
• 13’ third round selection Logan Ryan has played two defensive snaps.
• 13’ third rounder selection Duron Harmon has played eight defensive snaps.

The only notable player is Spikes, who to this point provided an inconsistent performance over his tenure even when contributing. It just seems like Belichick and his staff are missing something, what do you all think it is?

Notice: There still is time for the 12’ and 13’ picks to become good draft selections.

It would be easy to jump on this post and say it is negative but i will respond as i believe the criticism has some merit.

This year's picks aside. We have now picked 11 defensive players in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Out of those picks we have only Brandon Spikes who IMO you could argue has lived up to his drafted position and been a consistent performer for us.

I know looking at things in a vacuum doesn't give you the full picture and there have been injuries. But i think under any metric 1 out of 11 is a poor return.

I think the lucky thing for the pats has been our good record in the 1st round Jones-Hightower-McCourty-Mayo and some good UDFA/Late round pickups Nink, Arrington and Dennard.

 

[jsull87]

Perhaps it is just me, but I feel as if the topic of the Patriots poor drafting/could'a should'a drafted better has been discussed, analyzed under a microscope and beaten to death over the last few years.

Probably against better judgement, but I will throw out a couple of thoughts:

Without a baseline, do we even know what is good or bad? In baseball if you miss 70% you are considered to be an all star batter. A hockey goalie succeeds in making a save on 89% of the shots he faces and he's out of a job.

What specific criteria constitutes a good pick or bad pick? How does one adjust for when the pick is made? Why is the 1st overall pick considered to be the same as the 32nd, yet the 32nd is considered to be completely different from the 33rd?

How have all the 31 other teams done over a long enough period of time to create a large enough sample size to make the evaluation worthwhile?





Let's take a two-team scenario. Team A trades up and ends up with three draft picks. One turns out to be a pro bowler; one an average starter; and one a backup and special teamer.

Team B trades back and ends up with ten picks. Their result is one pro bowler; one above average starter; two average starters; one backup/special teamer; and the other five never accomplish anything to speak of with the team.

So who had the better draft?

Many would say that Team A hit on 100% of their picks and had no busts while in comparison Team B hit on only 50% of their picks and 50% of their picks were busts; therefore Team A indisputably had a better draft.

In reality Team B had the better draft; here's why:
- Both teams had one pro bowler, so that's a wash
- Team B had one above average starter; Team A had none
- Team B had two average starters; Team A had only one
- Both teams had an equal number of backup/special teamers

Completely agree and i also agree with BB's trade philosophy.

The issue has been the selections themselves not the trading. I think as i said before in a vacuum is a bad way to look at drafting. But 1-11 isn't i by any metric good enough (could argue 2/11 but we all know Chung was not a starter).

i think we'd be having a completely different argument if it were even 3 out of 11 or 4 out of 11. Yes we would have missed on 7-8 players but we would have garnered 4 starting Defensive players out of this capital which over 4 years isn't a bad return.

 

[Brady6]

Perhaps it is just me, but I feel as if the topic of the Patriots poor drafting/could'a should'a drafted better has been discussed, analyzed under a microscope and beaten to death over the last few years.

Probably against better judgement, but I will throw out a couple of thoughts:

Without a baseline, do we even know what is good or bad? In baseball if you miss 70% you are considered to be an all star batter. A hockey goalie succeeds in making a save on 89% of the shots he faces and he's out of a job.

What specific criteria constitutes a good pick or bad pick? How does one adjust for when the pick is made? Why is the 1st overall pick considered to be the same as the 32nd, yet the 32nd is considered to be completely different from the 33rd?

How have all the 31 other teams done over a long enough period of time to create a large enough sample size to make the evaluation worthwhile?





Let's take a two-team scenario. Team A trades up and ends up with three draft picks. One turns out to be a pro bowler; one an average starter; and one a backup and special teamer.

Team B trades back and ends up with ten picks. Their result is one pro bowler; one above average starter; two average starters; one backup/special teamer; and the other five never accomplish anything to speak of with the team.

So who had the better draft?

Many would say that Team A hit on 100% of their picks and had no busts while in comparison Team B hit on only 50% of their picks and 50% of their picks were busts; therefore Team A indisputably had a better draft.

In reality Team B had the better draft; here's why:
- Both teams had one pro bowler, so that's a wash
- Team B had one above average starter; Team A had none
- Team B had two average starters; Team A had only one
- Both teams had an equal number of backup/special teamers

JMT thank you for the educated and fair response, after reading it I thought it would be worthwhile to better explain the motive and the purpose of my OP.

• What motivated me to write the post was when I looked at the snap counts for games 1 and 2, I noticed or should I say I was disappointed to see that Tavon Wilson had played just 1 defensive snap and Jake Bequette had played 0 defensive snaps through the first 2 games of the season. Admittedly I may have overacted by opening this thread.
• The purpose of my OP was not to belabor the drafting of Belichick in rounds 2 and 3, or to point out his failures, I am not the most experienced football fan, however I am trying to make every attempt to educated myself and what I was attempting to do was ask more experienced members of the board what they think the flaw in the draft strategy is that causes us to miss on 2nd and 3rd round selections specifically when drafting defensive players.

I will admit to all that I may have been to defensive of my post, however I became somewhat frustrated by posters referring to my post as negative and completely ignoring the premise of the OP which was to hear could be causing these selections to fail, an example would be drafting players with injury concerns too often, or choosing players who are inexperienced at their positions, etc.

Once again I do appreciate your post, you’re one of my favorite board members to hear from, I enjoy the knowledge you offer and respect your delivery of the information you’re conveying.

 

[Brady6]

Completely agree and i also agree with BB's trade philosophy.

The issue has been the selections themselves not the trading. I think as i said before in a vacuum is a bad way to look at drafting. But 1-11 isn't i by any metric good enough (could argue 2/11 but we all know Chung was not a starter).

i think we'd be having a completely different argument if it were even 3 out of 11 or 4 out of 11. Yes we would have missed on 7-8 players but we would have garnered 4 starting Defensive players out of this capital which over 4 years isn't a bad return.

I absolutely agree with Belichick’s trade philosophy as well, which I believe to be focusing on quantity of picks rather than quality of picks; however I do feel the draft offers 3 exceptions to that rule in terms of positions and those are:

• Quarterback
• Wide Receiver
• Defensive Back

For whatever reason those position more times than not appear to be indicative of “getting what you pay for”. I am not sure why, if I had to guess it would be because measurable metrics are most important, so players like Julio Jones go early and then if you want a player with Julio Jones metrics in the 2nd or 3rd round you’re going to likely have to take a risk on a player who has injury issues in college, character issues, lacking experience, or below average college production.

I personally believe that if Belichick stuck with his philosophy and made exceptions for certain position such as the 3 I listed we would see a much better result, in a nutshell what I am saying is use the #1 on as close to a can’t miss corner or receiver and then use the picks you stockpiled on linemen, running backs, linebackers and positions like that where you can find quality players without the associated risk that comes with the mid round receivers and defensive backs.