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2nd + 3rd = 5 years of poor defensive selections


Well thank God we have you here to help Bill figure out what he is doing wrong and what he should do to change!!!!!!

Most of us are here to discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the Patriots, any fan of a team that doesn't want to be ignorant is likely to take an interest in what the team does and doesn't do well and what could be the cause of either.

There are of course others who troll around spewing passive aggressive sarcastic comments that add nothing in context, one thing I can say about this site above any other on the web is the positive, educated, and informative members far out way the few negative ones. I personally do my best to be an example of a the majority group and be a contributing member of the board, I hope you do the same :)
 
The pats have drafted Nine defensive backs in the last five years in rounds One, Two and Three. Only One is a starter ....Mccourty and hes a started at a position he wasn't drafted. I look at the bottom line, nothing weighted etc. I don't care if you pick in the 20's every year when you can only produce One starting DB somethings wrong. A team should be able to get more than one quality player in the first three rounds over Five years at a certain position. And if we even father back lets say Ten years its even worse. Now ive said this before i think BB maybe the greatest coach of all time, and the amount of wins he averages every year with personel he has is amazing. But what ever the parameters are that are used in selecting DB.s and WR's its not working. If we look at WR's, only One has panned out, and you have to go back to 2002 and the selection of Branch in the second round.

He never drafted a linebacker, now we have three starters and Collins. I think people have selective memory when it comes to the draft. BB could have had 80 picks out of the four WRs drafted 2nd overall to 10th Detroit, to end up with one starter and playoff appearance in about ten years.

It's a crapshoot.

How many top ten picks has BB blown? Top 15?

After that, there really are no guarantees IMO.
 
When you have four consecutive losing seasons, you get to draft in the top half of all seven rounds for four straight years.

On top of that because Seattle was an inferior team, they had fewer big contract players on their payroll. That makes it easier to sign veteran free agents, and retain their own players.

Once you take all that into consideration, there is no reason for a team in a situation like Seattle not to have built a very good club, or at least one of the league's best on whichever side of the ball they chose to focus on (in this case defense).

Given the realities of the salary cap, free agency, and draft order, it should not be a surprise whatsoever that a bad team gets better. Teams that stay good or that stay bad are the anomalies, good teams getting worse and bad teams getting better should be the expected norm.

2012: Seahawks had the 12th pick; Pats #31
2011: Seahawks had the 25th pick; Pats #28
2010: Seahawks had the 6th pick; Pats #22
2009: Seahawks had the 4th pick; Pats #23​

Considering that disparity, there's really no excuse for them to have not built a better defense.

Seattle didn't build its defense with high picks and high priced free agents. It's mostly a team of mid-round draftees. The Patriots actually have more high round draftees as starters, and Mayo is the highest team-drafted player starting on either team's defense.

First round picks in (about) the aforementioned time frame....

2009: Bust Aaron Curry
2010: OT Russell Okung/S Earl Thomas
2011: OT James Carpenter
2012: Bruce Irvin

Thomas was drafted at 14, Irvin at 15

Second round picks in the aforementioned time fram....

2009: Center Max Unger
2010: WR Golden Tate
2011: None
2012: Bobby Wagner

The rest of the defensive players who've started this season...

Mebane (2007) was taken in the 3rd
Thurmond, Bryant (2008) and Wright were taken in the 4th
Chancellor and Sherman were taken in the 5th
Smith was taken in the 7th

McDaniel is on a one year deal for under a million.
Bennett's on a one year deal for about $4.8m
Avril got 2 years and $13 million
O'Brien was claimed off Waivers and is making under $700k

Seattle's just done an overall better job of getting in defensive talent, in recent years, and almost every player they drafted has been available to the Patriots.
 
I guess I should have been more specific in the wording of my response better.

My point was not about first round draft picks; it was in response to a poster who seemed aghast that Seattle had improved, to the current state where their defense is now superior than the New England defense.

Point being that when Team A is drafting on average 15-16 slots earlier than Team B year after year, then it stands to reason that Team A should improve in comparison to Team B.

If they're not improving considering the more advantageous draft slot (e.g., Jacksonville, Buffalo or Oakland), then they're not doing their job.

If they do improve (e.g., San Francisco, Seattle) then they are doing what should be expected given the circumstances in today's parity-driven NFL.
 
I guess I should have been more specific in the wording of my response better.

My point was not about first round draft picks; it was in response to a poster who seemed aghast that Seattle had improved, to the current state where their defense is now superior than the New England defense.

Point being that when Team A is drafting on average 15-16 slots earlier than Team B year after year, then it stands to reason that Team A should improve in comparison to Team B.

If they're not improving considering the more advantageous draft slot (e.g., Jacksonville, Buffalo or Oakland), then they're not doing their job.

If they do improve (e.g., San Francisco, Seattle) then they are doing what should be expected given the circumstances in today's parity-driven NFL.

This argument would hold water if the Seahawks been really looking to build up their defense with picks in the upper rounds. They weren't. They were working on their offense in the higher rounds. The Patriots used more higher round picks on defenders than the Seahawks did. They just chose poorly all too often.

Seattle's drafted defenders in the first 3 rounds, since 2009:

Aaron Curry
Earl Thomas
Bruce Irvin

Just in 1st and 2nd round picks alone, the Patriots have drafted:

Chung
Brace
Butler
McCourty
Cunningham
Spikes
Dowling
Jones
Hightower
Wilson

in that same 2009-2012 time span.

Going by your argument, the Patriots defense should, absolutely, be the better defense, because they've expended the higher draft capital on the defensive players.
 
2012: Seahawks had the 12th pick; Pats #31
2011: Seahawks had the 25th pick; Pats #28
2010: Seahawks had the 6th pick and the 14th pick; Pats #22
2009: Seahawks had the 4th pick; Pats #23​

Exactly. Picking in the top 10 is vastly different from picking at the back of the first round. I prefer to judge by tiers as there can be a great disparity of talent between the top and bottom of a round depending on the makeup of each draft.

We should give credit to John Schneider however, he has added some very good draft picks in his short tenure so far from the second round onwards.

On both sides of the ball, they have come away with Golden Tate, Walter Thurmond III, Kam Chancellor, KJ Wright, Richard Sherman, Bobby Wagner and Russell Wilson. In particular acquiring a lockdown corner and possible franchise QB in the 3rd and 5th rounds as cornerstones for your franchise are enormous boons.
 
This argument would hold water if the Seahawks been really looking to build up their defense with picks in the upper rounds. They weren't. They were working on their offense in the higher rounds. The Patriots used more higher round picks on defenders than the Seahawks did. They just chose poorly all too often.

Seattle's drafted defenders in the first 3 rounds, since 2009:

Aaron Curry
Earl Thomas
Bruce Irvin

Just in 1st and 2nd round picks alone, the Patriots have drafted:

Chung
Brace
Butler
McCourty
Cunningham
Spikes
Dowling
Jones
Hightower
Wilson

in that same 2009-2012 time span.

Going by your argument, the Patriots defense should, absolutely, be the better defense, because they've expended the higher draft capital on the defensive players.

To me this is not a a case of either/or.

Yes, you are correct that Seattle utilized and hit on later draft picks to build their defense.

That is a completely separate topic and argument that (in my opinion), a team that is drafting half a round earlier than another team should be expected to improve while the other team regresses given the parameter of today's NFL (i.e., salary cap; free agency; draft based on inverse order or record).

For 28 consecutive rounds Team A starts out with a draft slot that is half a round earlier than Team B's draft slot. Team A improves; Team B does not. That should not be a surprise; that should be the expected result.
 
I suspect that analysis would show that the Patriots' drafting at the "speed" positions has been less fortunate than at the others. However, Branch, Givens, Asante, Dennard and -- yes -- McCourty were outstanding picks. And a number of others were adequate. So I'm not sure that the trend is strong enough to ascribe to much except chance.
 
To me this is not a a case of either/or.

Yes, you are correct that Seattle utilized and hit on later draft picks to build their defense.

That is a completely separate topic and argument that (in my opinion), a team that is drafting half a round earlier than another team should be expected to improve while the other team regresses given the parameter of today's NFL (i.e., salary cap; free agency; draft based on inverse order or record).

For 28 consecutive rounds Team A starts out with a draft slot that is half a round earlier than Team B's draft slot. Team A improves; Team B does not. That should not be a surprise; that should be the expected result.

Assuming a straight draft, with no gained, lost or moved picks:

Teams that draft at the end of round one instead of higher up on it are only behind those drafting at the top by one pick. After the poorer team makes its first pick in the draft, the issue goes away as the better team gains the higher picks. The lesser team didn't draft ahead of the better team 28 times, it did so 4 times.

On a total points (just subbing the word "points" in for "slots" scale, excluding compensatory picks, and with 1.1 getting 1 point and 7.32 getting 259 points, the most extreme difference you'll get (1 v. 32) would be 217 points. That's only an average difference of a little more than a 7th round pick (#22 overall in round 6). While the compensatories alter this slightly, the overall difference, while there, is not mind-blowingly significant, which is part of why bad drafting teams tend to keep stinking year after year. When teams blow that first round pick, they blow their advantage and, especially before the new CBA, they actually end up putting themselves at a future financial disadvantage. Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that it's not an advantage. I'm just noting that it's not as huge an advantage as one might think, particularly given the number of positions teams need to fill.

The key to success in the NFL draft is to hit consistently on top 3 picks, and to occasionally hit big on later round picks. What happened with Seattle is that they hit big with several later round picks in a two year window (2010-2011), while taking advantage of 1 top pick (Earl Thomas) in the 2009-2012 time frame, and busting (Aaron Curry) with the other. They flew past the Patriots defensively not because they were drafting higher in every round, but because the Patriots were drafting Ras-I Dowlings in round 2, while the Seahawks were drafting Richard Sherman in round 5.

In the case of the Patriots/Seahawks defensive comparison, the Patriots actually spent more draft capital on players. They just chose much more poorly, in comparison (ignoring the notion of future improvement solely for the sake of grading out at this very moment).

The Patriots spent 20 draft picks on defensive players from 2009-2012:

Patrick Chung
Ron Brace
Darius Butler
Tyrone McKenzie
Myron Pryor
Darryl Richard
Jermaine Cunningham
Brandon Deaderick
Kade Weston
Ras-I Dowling
Markell Carter
Malcolm Williams

Tavon Wilson
Jake Bequette
Nate Ebner

Brandon Spikes
Devin McCourty
Chandler Jones
Dont'a Hightower
Alfonzo Dennard

To date, not one of them has established himself as a star, the bolded are already gone, and the underlined have failed to establish themselves at all, to this point. Spikes, whom I didn't underline, has established himself solely as a one down (i.e. run stopping) player, limiting his impact, as well. If we're looking for reasons why the Patriots have not become a dominant, Seahawks/49ers type defense despite having players like Mayo/Wilfork (earlier draftees) and Talib (trade) on the roster, those 20 draft picks are a good place to start, rather than pointing to the draft system itself. After all, 10 of those 20 picks were taken in the first or second round, while the Seahawks only drafted 4 defensive players (including the big bust in Curry) in the first two rounds during that same 4 year stretch.
 
If you don't believe there is an advantage to having on average the 12th pick in every round of the draft for four straight years versus having on average the 26th, so be it. Maybe it is of your opinion that having the last pick of every round is of equal value to having the first pick in every round in your eyes too, I don't know.

As for all of the rest of the very lengthy response, as stated previously that is a completely separate topic of discussion. I'm not disputing any of that.
 
I wonder what people would be saying if teams were racking up 35 points against the Pats every game like the other teams who were on the receiving end were seeing. Think people would be talking about their selections when the Pats were marching up and down the field at will against them? Spoiled.

As much as I'm a fan of a more aggressive defense, you're not going to get one with BB. The defense will never be tops in the league at yards allowed. Live with it.
 
If you don't believe there is an advantage to having on average the 12th pick in every round of the draft for four straight years versus having on average the 26th, so be it.

I didn't say that there wasn't. What I said was that the advantage, while there, is not as great as you seemed to be implying. You're looking at just 28 picks over 4 years, you have to spend picks on 3 areas of football, and the biggest advantage you get is the first pick in each of those years. After that pick, even the widest split (#1 v. #32) becomes advantage #32 for the rest of the draft. In the end, that means that there's a huge edge (#1 overall v. last overall pick) for the worse team in every draft because of pick #1, but a slight edge (#32 v. #33) to the better team for every other pick, and that's only an edge of one player/pick per year, again, spent on offense/defense/ST (well, likely on offense/defense unless you're the Raiders).

Maybe it is of your opinion that having the last pick of every round is of equal value to having the first pick in every round in your eyes too, I don't know.

No, it is my opinion that pick #32 is of slightly higher value than pick #33, #64 is of slightly higher value than #65, and so on down the chain.

As for all of the rest of the very lengthy response, as stated previously that is a completely separate topic of discussion. I'm not disputing any of that.

You initially tailored your argument to the Patriots and Seahawks. I'm responding to that as well as to the more ethereal claim regarding general draft position. While you seemed to be conceding that your premise doesn't actually apply to the teams you were applying it to when we look at what really happened instead of what you were using as the basis of your claim, in an earlier post, the rest of the very lengthy response was used to point out that your notion of what should happen given the available draft capital obviously doesn't have a 1:1 correlation with what actually happens, even when it's the 'good' team in the superior position.


Edit: Just a note I think we can agree on: our discussion is limited by the inability to quantify, with certainly, the individual and/or overall impact of things such as coaching, home field advantages, strength/depth of particular draft years, etc...
 
Deus is right to argue that the extra value of having a high draft position vs. a low one is bounded above -- and indeed less than -- the value of a single very high pick.

However, a single very high pick each year is a lot. And with trades, it need not manifest as a single pick.

Anyhow, I've said several times in this thread that the right thing to look at is AVERAGE return on picks, compared to the norm for the picks at a similar point in the draft. And recent Rounds 2-3 defensive picks have, by that standard, not been a success area for the Patriots, for whatever reason.

As for what the reason is == I'm by no means ready to discard the null/random hypothesis.
 
I have the highest regard for Belichick, if someone asked me to name a public figure I idolized it would likely be him that said I cannot ignore that he is doing something wrong in the second and third rounds of the draft in the last 5 years when he drafts defensive players.

• 08’ second round selection Terrence Wheatley was released during the 2010 season.
• 08’ third round selection Shaun Crable was released prior to the 2010 season.
• 09’ second round selection Pat Chung not resigned after spending last season as third on the depth chart.
• 09’ second round selection Ron Brace was released during last season.
• 09’ second round selection Darius Butler was released prior to the 11’ season.
• 09’ third round selection Tyrone McKenzie was released prior to the 10’ season.
• 10’ second round selection Jermaine Cunningham was waived injured in the preseason.
• 10’ second round selection Brandon Spikes has two tackles in 47 defensive snaps.
• 11’ second round selection Ras-I Dowling was released in preseason.
• 12’ second round selection Tavon Wilson has played one defensive snap.
• 12’ third round selection Jake Bequette has not played a defensive snap.
• 13’ second round selection Jamie Collins has played six defensive snaps.
• 13’ third round selection Logan Ryan has played two defensive snaps.
• 13’ third rounder selection Duron Harmon has played eight defensive snaps.

The only notable player is Spikes, who to this point provided an inconsistent performance over his tenure even when contributing. It just seems like Belichick and his staff are missing something, what do you all think it is?

Notice: There still is time for the 12’ and 13’ picks to become good draft selections.

Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals have created one of the best Defensive Lines in the NFL with 2nd and 3rd round picks

(Michael Johnson, Carlos Dunlap, Geno Atkins)
 
Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals have created one of the best Defensive Lines in the NFL with 2nd and 3rd round picks

(Michael Johnson, Carlos Dunlap, Geno Atkins)
Atkins was a fourth round pick.

There's talent available in every round of the draft. It's a matter of the Patriots correctly identifying that talent. For the most part, they've been pretty good but the glaring misses are starting to pile up.

I wonder if BB has too much power in the war room. I'd be interested to know who the scouts recommended and why BB ultimately chose who he did.
 
Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals have created one of the best Defensive Lines in the NFL with 2nd and 3rd round picks

(Michael Johnson, Carlos Dunlap, Geno Atkins)
And in that same time span, they've completely whiffed on Chase Coffman, Jordan Shipley, Brandon Ghee, Dontay Moch, Devon Still, Brandon Thompson, and Dre Kirkpatrick. Nobody's anywhere near perfect.
 
By the way. I know the draftniks will hate me, but if you have some players who suck for various reasons and get rid of them, then turn around and replace the with Talib, Dennard, keep Arrington, move McCourty etc. you've done the job of player acquisition.

Get a 7th like Buchanan while teams wiff on pass rushers in the 1st and 2nd regularly still stocks the team.

It's not about collecting talent. Learn from mistakes, but don't dwell on them.
 
Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals have created one of the best Defensive Lines in the NFL with 2nd and 3rd round picks

(Michael Johnson, Carlos Dunlap, Geno Atkins)

Which translates into an average 9-7 record and one and done in the playoffs.
 
How the hell does Pete Carrol put together a man eating defense?

I guess Parcells was right. If you are the one cooking you ought to be buying some of the groceries.

Anybody notice seattles defense is leaps and bounds better than than the Pats defense?

Which has translated into exactly what?
 


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