Who Is Our Biggest AFC Threat?

IcyPatriot said:

Colts are if Andrew Luck gets healthy or Denver if Brock can give them something .... and it's not even close.

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I agree that if brock suddenly becomes good then the Broncos are a threat but come on, the colts were terrible before luck for hurt. Why would it be different after the kidney injury?

Nobody is picking the Bengals to beat the Cardinals on the road this weekend. Nobody.

NFL picks 2015, Week 11: Experts unanimously favor Cardinals, Patriots, Panthers

I changed my pick from Cincy to the Steelers.

I'm actually pulling for the Raiders too. Nothing would be better than seeing the Jets lose out to them on the head to head tie breaker, especially if the AFCS winner has a worse record and gets in. That would make the NYJFL's heads explode.

Pittsburgh if they manage to get healthy on the offensive side of the ball. Especially so if the injury bug hits the Patriots' corners. Maybe they double team Brown with Ryan and McCourty over the top, while having Butler on Bryant. The only problem is Bryant is 6'4'', while Butler is 5'11". That most likely is a mismatch if Roethlisberger is in the zone, making throws like the one to Santonio Holmes in the Superbowl. The Patriots would most likely need to score 35+ to win that kind of game. Fortunately only Pittsburgh and a playoff norm-breaking Bengals team can force the Patriots into that type of game.

Denver's defense has regressed in my opinion due to a combination of old age (Ware) and their annual post-midseason slump. They still have a chance at being a threat especially since I can't see Osweiler being any worse that the undead corpse of Peyton Manning. If the defense is not playing at its peak come playoff time, they will have an exit reminiscent to the one they experienced last year.

Finally, the Bengals are the Bengals. Won't trust them to be a contender until they prove it in the playoffs. Marvin Lewis + Andy Dalton + Playoffs. Enough said.

The Jets and Bills are always a threat. Especially a Rex led team with defensive talent. Before 2010 I would have dismissed divisional opponents in the playoffs. But that loss was up there in terms of worst playoff losses under Belichick and Brady. That 2010 team was among my favorites too.

So...... Any of you guys changing your picks yet?

If they take care of business tomorrow night they will be up two games on both the Bungals and the Donkeys.

Go Pats!

The biggest threat to the Patriots isn't an AFC team it is injury. This Patriots team near full strength is a top 2 O, a top 5-ish D, Top 3 STs. What other AFC team has all 3 near equivalent capabilities? IMHO Denver and Pitt clearly do not have balance and rely too heavily on one thing. Cincy appears capable on all sides but just doesn't strike me as a team that can put all parts together to make that 'very difficult to beat' team. And remember, as is becoming more and more likely, any one of them will have to get it done in Foxboro.

Except 07 this road to the SB is paved as well as has been paved for the Patriots. Barring the worrisome injury issue, as long as the Patriots play relatively close to potential in the AFC Division and Conference games, any AFC opponent is going to have to play the game of their 2015 season and see the Patriots trip themselves up a bit just to eke out a down to the wire win.

Cincinnati is tough on both sides of the ball. They have a capable power running game with Hill and a 3rd down back in Benard who presents mismatches. They have Eifert at TE (leads the NFL in TDs), Green, Jones, Sanu at WR, and a top 5 OL. They had the #1 scoring defense in the league coming into last night's game.

Pittsburgh is tough as well, and not only has a decent passing attack, but their defense has been playing much better than anyone would've expected too. Either one of those teams could pose a threat.

I still think that Denver is a threat as well, although the level of threat likely depends on what QB they use.

TheBostonStraggler said:

Barring the worrisome injury issue, as long as the Patriots play relatively close to potential in the AFC Division and Conference games, any AFC opponent is going to have to play the game of their 2015 season and see the Patriots trip themselves up a bit just to eke out a down to the wire win.

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I agree that there's no doubt that injuries are our biggest obstacle, although I'm not quite as sure about needing to play the "game of the season" to beat us in the postseason. We've seen scenarios like 2010 where NE was clearly the superior team yet lost to a "hot" team in the playoffs who got a couple of good calls from refs, bounces of the ball, etc. We're definitely in agreement, but I personally wouldn't see the gap as quite as large as many suggest--at least until Edelman returns. Then I feel much more comfortable.

I think this 2015 team has been very good so far, although my concern would be seeing how they handle some of the changes due to the injuries. I believe that #11 was the straw that stirred the drink, at least in terms of moving the chains and helping with the finer nuances of the offensive scheme. #87 is the bigger play guy and the player who can change a game quicker, but Edelman's loss is a big one. To take it one step further, we're now down to Butler, Ryan, and Melvin as our only 3 healthy CBs, so we'll expect someone to get called up from the PS tomorrow and/or McCourty taking reps at corner.

injuries, refs, steelers, divisional opponent in that order.

supafly said:

I agree that there's no doubt that injuries are our biggest obstacle, although I'm not quite as sure about needing to play the "game of the season" to beat us in the postseason. We've seen scenarios like 2010 where NE was clearly the superior team yet lost to a "hot" team in the playoffs who got a couple of good calls from refs, bounces of the ball, etc. We're definitely in agreement, but I personally wouldn't see the gap as quite as large as many suggest--at least until Edelman returns. Then I feel much more comfortable.

I think this 2015 team has been very good so far, although my concern would be seeing how they handle some of the changes due to the injuries. I believe that #11 was the straw that stirred the drink, at least in terms of moving the chains and helping with the finer nuances of the offensive scheme. #87 is the bigger play guy and the player who can change a game quicker, but Edelman's loss is a big one. To take it one step further, we're now down to Butler, Ryan, and Melvin as our only 3 healthy CBs, so we'll expect someone to get called up from the PS tomorrow and/or McCourty taking reps at corner.

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Agreed that the loss of Jules makes the rest of the regular season less clear. In my post I assumed his return for the POs (I take him being on the weekly injury report as the Patriots feel the same way). But I'm of the mind that the Giants game and the Jules loss play into the Patriots PO hands. The Giants game tested their mental toughness. I prefer the Patriots have a few games where they have to dig deep to pull the win out. And the Jules loss will put a whole lot of tape out there on other plays by the Patriots and give their other 'non Jules' options more chances to gel.

I may be too optimistic on the PO chances (of course it's all a judgment call), however, when I stack up the Patriots firing on almost all cylinders against what I have seen so far from Pitt, Den, Cincy? I don't see the Patriots losing (especially at home) unless one of those teams plays way above their norm and/or the Patriots make a bunch of unforced errors.
Around this time last year I was singing this same song of "I really like this team and our chances". I feel even better this year and at the same time I think the competition has taken a little step back (Ravens being out of the picture is good by me ). IMHO just get healthy then bring on Cincy Denver and Pitt! I haven't felt better about the upcoming match ups since 07.

TheBostonStraggler said:

Agreed that the loss of Jules makes the rest of the regular season less clear. In my post I assumed his return for the POs (I take him being on the weekly injury report as the Patriots feel the same way). But I'm of the mind that the Giants game and the Jules loss play into the Patriots PO hands. The Giants game tested their mental toughness. I prefer the Patriots have a few games where they have to dig deep to pull the win out. And the Jules loss will put a whole lot of tape out there on other plays by the Patriots and give their other 'non Jules' options more chances to gel.

I may be too optimistic on the PO chances (of course it's all a judgment call), however, when I stack up the Patriots firing on almost all cylinders against what I have seen so far from Pitt, Den, Cincy? I don't see the Patriots losing (especially at home) unless one of those teams plays way above their norm and/or the Patriots make a bunch of unforced errors.
Around this time last year I was singing this same song of "I really like this team and our chances". I feel even better this year and at the same time I think the competition has taken a little step back (Ravens being out of the picture is good by me ). IMHO just get healthy then bring on Cincy Denver and Pitt! I haven't felt better about the upcoming match ups since 07.

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I've yet to feel that same twinge of crazy optimism that you're describing like I did last year, but I do like our odds. It will be interesting in seeing how they deal with the loss of Jules, and if he comes back like we hope.

I'm a big believer in HFA, so that will go a long way towards helping our cause, particularly with a win against Buffalo, which will give us a full 2 game lead. As you mentioned, the injury bug is my main concern, along with the difficulty of winning back to back. While the Pats feel comfortable enough holding a spot for Edelman right now, they'd be fools not to, but I don't think we'll have any clue as to how he's doing until Christmas time. That's when we'll really start to have an idea of how he's progressing/regressing, etc.

I know that many here like to compare the injury to the recent one of Dez Bryant, but having a guy who runs straight down the field and uses his size advantage (Dez Bryant) and having a guy who needs to stop on a dime, change directions, avoid tackles, use his shiftiness/speed to his advantage (Edelman) are two very different situations, so I'd feel much more comfortable when that 9 week point comes around, as opposed to Dez's 6 week point.

If need be Edelman can have 12 weeks off and be back for the Super Bowl. That's enough time for even the most pessimistic of cases for this type of injury to be healed. We can get there without him but we will need him to win it. And don't be dumb, if we make it that far and he hasn't suffered a significant setback, he WILL play in that game. No matter what.

In looking at some of the AFC teams left, the one team that could get hot is KC. I see them finishing 11-5 and having to go to Indy to face the potentially 8-8 Indy.

CISGS said:

So...... Any of you guys changing your picks yet?

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In the Bengals' defense, they just lost on the road by a last second field goal to perhaps the best team in the NFC. I don't think I would even characterize that as an upset, so it probably shouldn't change people's opinions too dramatically.

People saying injuries are kind of arrogant. I don't remember many on here thinking we would lose to the Giants in 2007, Jets in 2010 or the Ravens in 2012...in all those games we were favored by over a touchdown. Is it so hard to believe that on a given January, another team is capable of flat out beating us at full strength?

I'm sticking with my pick: Broncos, then Steelers, then Bengals, and I can certainly see ranking those teams differently but feel strongly they are far and away the top 3.

These are good NFL teams who invest $150M in payroll each year and are among the league's elite in certain categories. The ball is oval shaped, and you don't get best-of-seven series. Lose, and you go home.

If we have HFA throughout, no one scares me. Assuming our roster is healthy (or as close to healthy as possible) and Edeleman back, we'll smoke whoever's ass lands in Foxboro. Bring 'em *****es.

injuries