In his diagnosis of Ortiz being Clutch, Silver states;
-if the home team is batting in the bottom of the ninth down by two runs with nobody on, a walk is virtually as good as a home run.
I have to disagree. The equation does not take into account the human factor. Is the author saying that momentum has no effect on a team. I understand the concept, but he does not take any other consideration into the equation. It is purely mathematics which does not allow for the human element. Ever see a dugout go apesheet over a walk in the ninth?
- with a runner on first base, with less then two outs a strike out is preferable to a ground out.
In watching the Sox in this years playoffs, I occasionally sided with a strikeout of a batter to avoid the double-play. But that doesn't mean it is preferable. What if a hit and run was on, now you have a runner in scoring position. What if Lugo or Ellsbury is on first, they have a great chance of going to second on a fielder's choice.
In regards to AV, he will go down as the most clutch kicker in the NFL, because when the most important games were on the line with no more kicks left, regardless of previous kicks earlier in any games, made the kicks. Whether he is a 50% kicker or was not rated in the top tier is irrelevant. He made the kicks with the balance of the game on the line.