Concepts some posters could benefit from learning

[makewayhomer]

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/articles/2006/09/07/from_head_to_toe/

This guy tends to disagree that it's just a matter of variance.

look, it's not JUST a matter of variance - but fans tend to wildly overrate clutchiness.

again, if AV was so perfectly clutch, then how in the world did he just miss a 29 yard game winner?

 

[Joker]

heh...yeah...Lawrence Taylor was BIG into "variances".

 

[Pedrorocks458]

look, it's not JUST a matter of variance - but fans tend to wildly overrate clutchiness.

again, if AV was so perfectly clutch, then how in the world did he just miss a 29 yard game winner?

Who said perfectly clutch?

"clutchness" makes you perform better, it doesn't make you rip off your uniform to reveal an S on your chest.

 

[scout]

In his diagnosis of Ortiz being Clutch, Silver states;
-if the home team is batting in the bottom of the ninth down by two runs with nobody on, a walk is virtually as good as a home run.
I have to disagree. The equation does not take into account the human factor. Is the author saying that momentum has no effect on a team. I understand the concept, but he does not take any other consideration into the equation. It is purely mathematics which does not allow for the human element. Ever see a dugout go apesheet over a walk in the ninth?
- with a runner on first base, with less then two outs a strike out is preferable to a ground out.
In watching the Sox in this years playoffs, I occasionally sided with a strikeout of a batter to avoid the double-play. But that doesn't mean it is preferable. What if a hit and run was on, now you have a runner in scoring position. What if Lugo or Ellsbury is on first, they have a great chance of going to second on a fielder's choice.
In regards to AV, he will go down as the most clutch kicker in the NFL, because when the most important games were on the line with no more kicks left, regardless of previous kicks earlier in any games, made the kicks. Whether he is a 50% kicker or was not rated in the top tier is irrelevant. He made the kicks with the balance of the game on the line.

 

[Frezo]

look, it's not JUST a matter of variance - but fans tend to wildly overrate clutchiness.

again, if AV was so perfectly clutch, then how in the world did he just miss a 29 yard game winner?

That's the issue with looking solely at numbers. A player can be viewed as clutch for 10 years. Year 11 age catches up to him and he is no longer seen that way. Age becomes a varible that has to be injected into the numbers game.

 

[ATippett56]

He made the kicks with the balance of the game on the line.

It's so delectable to watch Vinatraitor choke for the Colts.

 

[makewayhomer]

That's the issue with looking solely at numbers. A player can be viewed as clutch for 10 years. Year 11 age catches up to him and he is no longer seen that way. Age becomes a varible that has to be injected into the numbers game.

age has basically nothing to do with missing a 29 yard fg.

 

[emoney_33]

Who would you rather have up in 1 at-bat...David Ortiz or Alex Rodriguez?

Numbers don't define clutch. Clutch is an eye test.

This is why I NEVER get into this debate anymore.

 

[NYPatsFan]

My response is somewhat off topic...

Let's not make Theo Epstein out to be some kind of guru. He tried desperately to get rid of Manny Ramirez a few years ago and also tried to acquire Arod. If he succeeded in doing either, it's quite likely that the Red Sox would still be searching for that elusive World Series title.

 

[scout]

My response is somewhat off topic...

Let's not make Theo Epstein out to be some kind of guru. He tried desperately to get rid of Manny Ramirez a few years ago and also tried to acquire Arod. If he succeeded in doing either, it's quite likely that the Red Sox would still be searching for that elusive World Series title.

Go to the Red Sox forum for that off topic discussion. I'll chat.

 

[makewayhomer]

My response is somewhat off topic...

Let's not make Theo Epstein out to be some kind of guru. He tried desperately to get rid of Manny Ramirez a few years ago and also tried to acquire Arod. If he succeeded in doing either, it's quite likely that the Red Sox would still be searching for that elusive World Series title.

agreed, Theo has not been perfect - no GM is. you need to look at the balance of his decisions and the type of player he has brought in, and give him a grade. he's had a healthy balance of good decisions and good luck (David Ortiz waaaaay outperfoming any wild dreams he had)

 

[Frezo]

age has basically nothing to do with missing a 29 yard fg.

How can you be "positive"? ...mathematically speaking of course

 

[Joker]

Maybe Theo should try to look up one of these brilliant friends of makewayforhtetroll's at MIT and get their advice on how to win a world series...oh...wait

 

[RayClay]

the most basic example? the idea of "clutch", which is generally highly overrated by most people. is David Ortiz a clutch hitter? most people in Boston would laugh at the question - of course he is, maybe the best clutch hitter of all time!! if this is you, then please please please read this article

Yeah that guy Larry Bird is bound to miss a clutch shot pretty soon. LOL!!

No study can overcome people who don't know how to interpret it.

 

[fair catch fryar]

look, it's not JUST a matter of variance - but fans tend to wildly overrate clutchiness.

again, if AV was so perfectly clutch, then how in the world did he just miss a 29 yard game winner?

What are you, a robot? I know that some people place a lot of value in numbers and stats, and that is great if your looking at the bottom line of running a profitable business, BUT your variance has absolutely no way to measure "clutch". You believe this theory because you want to believe it, it is not necessarily fact because some "sabermetricians" say so. Basically, a bunch of guys who have no life sit around and calculate hundreds of studies on "clutchiness". The bottom line is that there is no scientific way to measure a person's ability to perform under pressure in any line of work. Whether it's MJ at the foul line, Tom Brady in the 2-minute drill and 80 yards to go, Ortiz in the bottom of the ninth, or guys saving their buddies lives somewhere in Iraq. There is an ability for some people to thrive under various conditions when action is needed the most.

 

[makewayhomer]

How can you be "positive"? ...mathematically speaking of course

look at the #'s for his fg attempts < 30 yards this year

 

[makewayhomer]

Basically, a bunch of guys who have no life sit around and calculate hundreds of studies on "clutchiness".

just understand that these guys are running the local baseball team

 

[Frezo]

look at the #'s for his fg attempts < 30 yards this year

Then how do you explain his miss?

 

[makewayhomer]

Then how do you explain his miss?

variance. he's not gonna make 100% of his kicks; it just so happened his miss came at a baaaad time

 

[Pat_Nasty]

My response is somewhat off topic...

Let's not make Theo Epstein out to be some kind of guru. He tried desperately to get rid of Manny Ramirez a few years ago and also tried to acquire Arod. If he succeeded in doing either, it's quite likely that the Red Sox would still be searching for that elusive World Series title.

He also picked up Ortiz off the scrap heap, made the huge trade that enabled the '04 WS, and built us a seriously bada$$ team with a sustainable young nucleus of Beckett, Papelbon, Youk, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Dice-K, Bucholz, Lester who will all be with us for a while.

Guess what? Two thirds of the time Manny goes up to the plate, he makes an out. Theo should be allowed to "K" here and there too.