Future Extension for Cooks

[supafly]

True but 5'10" may make him a noteworthy tall WR on the Fujitsu Frontier or Obic Seagulls of the Japanese Xfootball League. Just sayin....

I don’t know if I’m allowed to laugh at this or not, but I mean no disrespect if I do.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

I’m only 5’9,” so it’s not like I’ve got any room to talk, but I did find it ironic that someone compared his size as a strength to Antonio Brown, that’s all. Last I’d heard, guys like Edelman and Amendola weren’t considered to have good size in terms of what we look for in today’s NFL WRs.

I'm 5' 10" Sup so we are both unworthy of height fanfare of any sort unless we were jockeys. Then we'd be in every equine racing publication on the planet .

Extra height at WR is a definite plus but you could go to any track and field olympic trials to find guys who are 6'+ and run as fast as a prong horn antelope. It doesn't make them WRs. A good QB can thrive with 5' 10" receivers if the receivers have the right tools (route running, football smarts, concentration, cut acceleration, hand-eye, ability to use leverage). The guys with those tools but also have that extra height? A rarer but excellent + to have.

Brandon Cooks reliably generating 80 to 90 catches a season with a +/- 15 YPC? I don't get the point of concern that he on the underside of 6' (he's listed at 5'10" but he's probably tacking on a few MMs). It's starts and ends about production -- the rest is just conversation.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

I don’t know if I’m allowed to laugh at this or not, but I mean no disrespect if I do.

Uh oh, did I allow late night, just finished a twelver, Internet posting to get me in trouble

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

I like Cooks a lot. That being said I am not over paying for him. His market well may be 14-16M+ a year but I don't think he is worth that. No WR is. I wouldn't take Julio Jones or Antonio Brown for 16M a year.

I think WRs compared to their value get paid about 20-25% too much on average.

What I would be willing to pay Cook in 12M a year maximum. He'll get more than that if he wants it and why wouldn't he want to be paid that much? I hope he stays here but I have no delusions about what he actually brings to the team and the price he would cost. Give me 3 Hogan's and 1 Edelman contact along with a cheap vet Amendola contract and I am happy with my 25M dollar WR core.

If Cooks wants 15m a year it isn't going to be with the Patriots. The 2017 transition (top 10 WRs avg) is 13m -- meaning the lower 5 is probably closer to 10 or 11m. Cooks 2016 reception total puts him around #23 in catches and his number this year is likely to put him above #20 (though he could outperform rest of the season). For other 2016 numbers: 10th spot for TD catches and 14th in YPC. His YPC rank may improve this year and his TDs on track for about the same.

Cooks isn't producing at a 15m/top 5 WR. So again if he wants that kind of money can't see the Patriots paying it.
We have Cooks for 2018 at 8m. If he wants money now, this offseason, he'll get a 2018 raise, he'll get a fat SB, he'll get roster guarantees -- but it ain't gonna be 15m and IMHO unlikely to even be 12m avg real money unless the contract completes all years.

 

[maineman209]

I like Cooks a lot. That being said I am not over paying for him. His market well may be 14-16M+ a year but I don't think he is worth that. No WR is. I wouldn't take Julio Jones or Antonio Brown for 16M a year.

I think WRs compared to their value get paid about 20-25% too much on average.

What I would be willing to pay Cook in 12M a year maximum. He'll get more than that if he wants it and why wouldn't he want to be paid that much? I hope he stays here but I have no delusions about what he actually brings to the team and the price he would cost. Give me 3 Hogan's and 1 Edelman contact along with a cheap vet Amendola contract and I am happy with my 25M dollar WR core.

Well, market price = flexibility of demand + perceived scarcity. Has nothing whatsoever to do with any objective "value" proposition. There are a lot of goods and service that I need (inflexible demand) that I think are overpriced, but there's nothing much I can do about it. It is what it is.

With 3+ years of consistently elite (or near elite) production already at his young age, demand for Cooks' services is almost certain to be high enough to generate offers in the $15M+ APY range, if he becomes a UFA at the end of 2018 . That's simply the reality, whether we think it's "right" or not.

The other reality is that Hogan turns 30 next October, Edelman turns 32 in May, and Amendola turns 33 next November. Guys like these (and Welker and Moss) make it seem like the Pats always come up with WRs who way out-produce their relative pay grade, but the reality is that the Pats have also had way more misses than hits. We may be happy with having these guys "on the cheap", but that simply isn't going to last much longer. And, behind Hogan, Edeman and Amendola, for 2018 the Pats currently have only Mitchell, Dorsett and Cooks.

At the moment, $15M seems like a lot, but, if the cap continues to rise at its recent rate, by Year-4 of a 5-year contract, that "extravagance" may seem like a relative bargain (assuming Cooks maintains his current productivity level).

I'm guessing that a Pats' extension offer next season might max out at ~ $12.5M plus a lot of incentives. After that, it's up to Cooks.

 

[TommyD4207]

Well, Cooks is still five years younger than Brown and Green. He's also clicking with Brady already and there's no guarantee that any of the other three would be able to do that.

"A Cooks in the hand ..."

This is a really good point, and I think one that can be leveraged. He could be up for an even bigger deal after this one's up. If you could sell him on like, 4/45 with a good chunk of that guaranteed, he might be willing to take a few bucks less knowing he could still hit the (likely even more inflated) market at 28, 29.

 

[maineman209]

I’m only 5’9,” so it’s not like I’ve got any room to talk, but I did find it ironic that someone compared his size as a strength to Antonio Brown, that’s all. Last I’d heard, guys like Edelman and Amendola weren’t considered to have good size in terms of what we look for in today’s NFL WRs.

Neither Edelman or Amendola have anywhere near elite long speed, either.

 

[maineman209]

If Cooks wants 15m a year it isn't going to be with the Patriots. The 2017 transition (top 10 WRs avg) is 13m -- meaning the lower 5 is probably closer to 10 or 11m. Cooks 2016 reception total puts him around #23 in catches and his number this year is likely to put him above #20 (though he could outperform rest of the season). For other 2016 numbers: 10th spot for TD catches and 14th in YPC. His YPC rank may improve this year and his TDs on track for about the same.

Cooks isn't producing at a 15m/top 5 WR. So again if he wants that kind of money can't see the Patriots paying it.
We have Cooks for 2018 at 8m. If he wants money now, this offseason, he'll get a 2018 raise, he'll get a fat SB, he'll get roster guarantees -- but it ain't gonna be 15m and IMHO unlikely to even be 12m avg real money unless the contract completes all years.

Cooks is currently Top-6 in yards, yards/game, and catches of 20+. That's ahead of AJ Green and way ahead of Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant.

Cooks' 17.0 ypc is also way ahead of all the WRs who are currently among the Top-6 in APY$ (the list in earlier post).

Comparing TDs with those Top-6 highest paid WRs:

Brown - 8
Hopkins - 9
Green - 6
COOKS - 5
Bryant - 5
Jones - 3
Thomas - 3

 

[PP2]

I played WR all my life. I love the position, I love how much one reception can mean for a victory

That being said, WR is THE most overrated position in the NFL. Even in a great day, a WR would only touch the ball close to 10% of the offensive snaps. Even a great WR becomes useless if there isn't a QB to throw him the ball or an OL who gives the QB time to throw.

You can receive similar production out of cheaper contracts VERY easily. One example doesn't prove the point, but take last years Championship games: Julio Jones and Chris Hogan both had 186 yards (don't remember if they had the same number of catches, but it was close).

Great WRs can't change a game by themselves. Think of great WRs that simply couldn't elevate their teams alone, recent examples: Calvin Johnson, AJ Green.

In the era of the salary cap, i think it's a plain mistake to pay a WR too much money for too long. This money could be better distributed to other areas and you can get performance out of cheap WR. I've actually done some research on this: The last time a team with a WR that took more than 10% of the cap won the Super Bowl was in 2006, with the Colts (Marvin Harrison).

I love Cooks. He's a great player, but I would not pay top dollar for him or any other WR.

While you make some good points. Great WR's do change how the defense approaches the game, if not the game itself. Just the knowledge that Cooks is a homerun threat is enough to alter coverage to our advantage.

 

[RobertWeathers]

RW, can any receiver actually say "I know who will be throwing passes to me in 2019"? Sure there's a few NFL landing spots that QB appears more settled, however and IMHO, a WR can't think out beyond 2 years on "who will be my QB" unless they've decided there's only a handful of teams they'll sign with (hurting their optimal payday chances). Plus even if he gets a decent QB for 2019 and 2020, will he end up with Barry Switzer or some other yahoo HC to blow the whole long term production plan up. Variables aplenty...

If I am Cooks I am thrilled with the situation. Next year's 5th year has been optioned at 7m(?) dollars, he'll definitely be getting passes from Tom Brady probably making 2018 look his best, then looking at 2019 UFA (worst case is the massive Franchise WR Tag money, 17million?, that's guaranteed). Currently he's solidly in the upper tier WR status with about 80 catches a year 3 years in a row, 2018 shouldn't change that, so he's looking at$$$$ multi UFA money in 2019.

One thing for sure is we are getting an absurdly great 2017 cap dollar to production deal and assuming 2018 sees the same production we still will be getting good value at 7million (given 2017 will be another approx. 80 catch season and assume 2018 is no different). But if we lose him after 2018 was a bottom of the first round pick worth the 160+ receptions at 9m over 2 years? Maybe, maybe not...

Good post but I would think if they lost Cooks it would be a major blunder if they did not sign him long term. Gotta find a way to keep 1st Rd picks. With that said if he wants obscene $ then maybe it doesn't make sense?

 

[BTTA]

The other reality is that Hogan turns 30 next October, Edelman turns 32 in May, and Amendola turns 33 next November...And, behind Hogan, Edeman and Amendola, for 2018 the Pats currently have only Mitchell, Dorsett and Cooks.

This is the context that strikes me as important. At the end of next year, if not sooner, the Edelman/Hogan/Amendola/Gronk "era" will come to an end and Brady will need a different core set of receivers. With Cooks they've got a great base to build around. If Mitchell can prove he can stay healthy, and Gronk as well going forward, they are in great shape to find another couple of under-performers from other teams to complete the set (and I think Dorsett falls into this category at this point). But without Cooks as a foundation, they start from a very different place in building this out. This may cause a willingness to pay a bit more for Cooks than they would have otherwise.

My apologies, Maine, for selectively carving up your post.

 

[patfanken]

I really like Brandin Cooks and how he's fit in here, and would LOVE to see him here long term. But @JayMN hit the nail on the head. WR is the MOST over rated position in the league. Just look at the WR's the Pats took to 7 Superbowls. Only once (2007) did they have a preeminent talent on the field and HE had a cheap contract that year.....and they LOST. IIRC last season's entire WR group had a cap number UNDER Julio Jone's number. Then add the list of so called elite WR's who never elevated their teams to greatn.ess, like Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Dex Bryant, etc. Not that these guys aren't great INDIVIDUAL players, but they just don't change the game by themselves.

Secondly I see Cooks constantly compared to AB. That one doesn't pass the eye test to me. at least not at this point. Cooks reminds me more of Tory Holt and the other "greatest show on turf" crew of the Rams. These are guys that are great at getting separation and making the ordinary catch, THEN getting down. BTW, getting compared to Tory Holt is NOT a bad thing, but Antonio Brown is at another level all together, and Cooks ain't there......yet.

If I'm running the franchise I'd NEVER give Cooks at $14MM dollar contract. Instead I'd give him a Gronk like contract. It would have a healthy signing bonus, followed by a moderate base salary (guaranteed each June) of 5-7MM/yr that can easily reach 10MM based on production and time on the field, PLUS could get to $12MM with a monster all pro year.

So in the end any extension I would give Cooks would be in the $10MM range IF he is on the field and moderately productive. It would have to be constructed so the Pats could get out of it cap-wise after 2-3 years (much like the Gilmore deal is done where IIRC they could release him after 2 years and not have a big cap hit.)

Also when you are about to pay a WR big money, you also have to think who is throwing the ball to him. I think chances are good that THAT QB will be Brady for the next 2 years beyond this one. But BEYOND the end of the 2019 season it's a crap shoot.

Also every year a LOT of big tall guys with great speed and athletic ability are being churned out by the college game. The way the game is evolving big actually IS better, and while small and quick will still have its place, the big money will need to go to THOSE guys in the future.

Just sayin'

 

[BTTA]

Good post but I would think if they lost Cooks it would be a major blunder if they did not sign him long term. Gotta find a way to keep 1st Rd picks. With that said if he wants obscene $ then maybe it doesn't make sense?

Agree. If any player can get obscene money, they should take it, regardless of where they play. I can't imagine facing a group of family members and saying, "Yeah, well, college education (or medical bills, etc.) for all you folks isn't in the cards, because I preferred that my employer be New England for five years of my life rather than San Diego." You gotta be able to take the long view, and the high road, which isn't about personal needs, when the career is very short and the payouts very large.

 

[tasmlab]

Comps might be:

Antonio Brown: $17M APY, $19M gtd
... signed 2017 at age 29, UFA 2022

DeAndre Hopkins: $16.2M APY, $36.5M gtd
... signed 2017 at age 25, UFA 2023

AJ Green: $15M APY, $26.75M gtd
... signed 2015 at age 27, UFA 2020

Julio Jones: $14.25M APY, $35.5M gtd
... signed 2015 at age 26, UFA 2021

Demaryius Thomas: $14M APY, $35M gtd
... signed 2015 at age 28, UFA 2020

Dez Bryant, .. $14M APY, $32M gtd
... signed 2015 at age 27, UFA 2020

Not sure I'll ever understand the $10MM per year price difference between the elite WR who gets 1,000+ yards a season and JE11 who gets 1,000+ yards a season and wins super bowls.

(I know Jules isn't doing anything this year)

 

[long distance]

Here a good overview of NE top contracts in BB era:
Patriots Have a History of Paying Top Dollar

Agreed w @luuked that its impossible to predict any BB move incl. this one and that it would be situational.

A thing to keep in mind is that it is a 2 yr league no matter what the overall contract suggests (except for some QBs) so both NE and Cooks will be basically making a decision about 2019 and 2020. That opens up possibilities.

On the 1st round pick - or more accurately #32 overall pick - for Cooks: the only two WRs taken in 2017 that showed some substantial production are Kupp and JuJu; they are both far from Cooks and they don't bring long speed to the table.. Pats are on the way to get two elite yrs out of Cookie (barring inj of course) and it is quite a big Q if any team will get two elite yrs with their top 2017 WR picks in their first contracts.. not to mention Pats getting the exact player for exact role in 2017 offence that was possibly not even available in the draft (let alone being able to contribute in 1st yr).

2 elite years of a player that enables you to run the offence you envisioned while being very productive himself on 5M APY is well worth a #32 pick any day in my book even if you let him walk and take the 3rd comp back..

 

[mgteich]

I would just point out that this discussion is really about 2019. We're all set for 2018 (even if one of the six doesn't make it into 2018 for health reasons:

COOKS
EDELMAN
HOGAN
AMENDOLA
DORSETT
MITCHELL

We even have a backup returner and #7 WR in Reedy.
========
That being said, Belichick and Cooks may be willing to sign a long-term deal. However, it needn't be completed early in the next off-season.

 

[maineman209]

Not sure I'll ever understand the $10MM per year price difference between the elite WR who gets 1,000+ yards a season and JE11 who gets 1,000+ yards a season and wins super bowls.

(I know Jules isn't doing anything this year)

Calcified "common wisdom"/consensus perception among the decision makers for 31 NFL teams.

 

[BTTA]

I would just point out that this discussion is really about 2019. We're all set for 2018 (even if one of the six doesn't make it into 2018 for health reasons:

COOKS
EDELMAN
HOGAN
AMENDOLA
DORSETT
MITCHELL

We even have a backup returner and #7 WR in Reedy.
========
That being said, Belichick and Cooks may be willing to sign a long-term deal. However, it needn't be completed early in the next off-season.

MG, if we can get three of those guys performing at top form in 2018, I'll be surprised and happy. The doc on Boston Sports Journal said Edelman won't be himself again until 2019, and his age, perhaps never, despite his relentlessness. Hogan and Amendola are also showing their age. Mitchell needs to show us a couple of seasons without injury, and Dorsett is still an unknown.

 

[chasa]

devante adams just got extended for $14mil a year so thats probably the bare minimum for cooks.

 

[Love The Drake]

devante adams just got extended for $14mil a year so thats probably the bare minimum for cooks.

I'd offer Cooks 11 million a season.