The NFL-wide ripple effects of Gronk's injury
NOTE: ESPN link
Schematically, the Patriots will likely get away from their two-tight-end sets and shift their base offense toward three-wide-receiver formations, with Danny Amendola and Malcolm Mitchell getting more snaps. Mitchell and Chris Hogan, in particular, will need to threaten teams downfield more frequently with Gronk missing. Mike Reiss noted yesterday that the Patriots have begun to experiment with a "Pony" grouping, which includes a pair of receiving backs in James Whiteand Lewis. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the Patriots try to use that grouping more, perhaps in sets with no tight ends, in the hopes of forcing opposing linebackers into a matchup they can't win.
The place where the Patriots will miss Gronkowski most, of course, is in the red zone. Research I conducted before the season suggests Gronk was the best red zone weapon in football on a per-play basis going back through 2006. You've seen Gronk play. You don't need me to tell you he is good in the red zone. The Patriots have actually not been notably great in the red zone this year; they're third in offensive DVOA but just 12th in points per red zone trip, a number that isn't likely to drastically improve without Gronkowski around.
Another "kowski" looms larger than usual now. If the Patriots do struggle in and around the red zone, it will be critical for Stephen Gostkowski to make sure their drives end in successful field goals and extra points, and he has struggled mightily this season. Gostkowski already has failed on three extra points this season and has missed more field goal attempts in 11 games in 2016 (four) than he had in any of the three previous seasons (three or fewer). The normally reliable Gostkowski has been the 12th-worst kicker in the league this year on scoring plays. With Gronkowski gone, they need the old Gostkowski back.
The margin of error for everyone on the Patriots, actually, is dramatically reduced by the Gronkowski injury. An offensive line that has been better this year after the return of legendary offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia needs to keep things up; right tackle Marcus Cannon, in particular, can't revert to the guy who made Patriots fans groan before an impressive 2016 season. The Patriots' pass defense, a dismal 28th in DVOA heading into this week, can't allow the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick to post 115.2 passer ratings.
And of course, as it always does, it comes down to Brady to elevate his game without his best receiver around. As Chris Wesseling of NFL Network noted in November, Brady has been a superstar with Gronkowski and basically a league-average passer without him. Here are Brady's numbers since Gronk entered the league in 2010 in games with and without his longtime tight end. I'm also putting the 49ers game on the latter side, given that Gronkowski played just seven snaps before leaving:
Joe Flacco and Sam Bradford, all of whom have passer ratings between 83 and 86 over that time frame. It's true that every quarterback will look worse without his No. 1 weapon, and it's entirely possible that Brady and the Pats are better-equipped to handle Gronkowski's absence this time around with Bennett.
It's also very clear that Tom Brady is not Tom Brady without Rob Gronkowski. Remember who Brady goes to when the chips are down. As much as he trusts Julian Edelman, it was Gronkowski who Brady threw to on fourth-and-the-season twice against the Broncos in the AFC Championship Game last season, even though his tight end was double-covered on both occasions. They simply aren't the same team without him.
NOTE: ESPN link