Bill Barnwell breaks down the effects of Gronk's injury on the pats

[SVN]

The NFL-wide ripple effects of Gronk's injury

Schematically, the Patriots will likely get away from their two-tight-end sets and shift their base offense toward three-wide-receiver formations, with Danny Amendola and Malcolm Mitchell getting more snaps. Mitchell and Chris Hogan, in particular, will need to threaten teams downfield more frequently with Gronk missing. Mike Reiss noted yesterday that the Patriots have begun to experiment with a "Pony" grouping, which includes a pair of receiving backs in James Whiteand Lewis. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the Patriots try to use that grouping more, perhaps in sets with no tight ends, in the hopes of forcing opposing linebackers into a matchup they can't win.

The place where the Patriots will miss Gronkowski most, of course, is in the red zone. Research I conducted before the season suggests Gronk was the best red zone weapon in football on a per-play basis going back through 2006. You've seen Gronk play. You don't need me to tell you he is good in the red zone. The Patriots have actually not been notably great in the red zone this year; they're third in offensive DVOA but just 12th in points per red zone trip, a number that isn't likely to drastically improve without Gronkowski around.

Another "kowski" looms larger than usual now. If the Patriots do struggle in and around the red zone, it will be critical for Stephen Gostkowski to make sure their drives end in successful field goals and extra points, and he has struggled mightily this season. Gostkowski already has failed on three extra points this season and has missed more field goal attempts in 11 games in 2016 (four) than he had in any of the three previous seasons (three or fewer). The normally reliable Gostkowski has been the 12th-worst kicker in the league this year on scoring plays. With Gronkowski gone, they need the old Gostkowski back.

The margin of error for everyone on the Patriots, actually, is dramatically reduced by the Gronkowski injury. An offensive line that has been better this year after the return of legendary offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia needs to keep things up; right tackle Marcus Cannon, in particular, can't revert to the guy who made Patriots fans groan before an impressive 2016 season. The Patriots' pass defense, a dismal 28th in DVOA heading into this week, can't allow the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick to post 115.2 passer ratings.

And of course, as it always does, it comes down to Brady to elevate his game without his best receiver around. As Chris Wesseling of NFL Network noted in November, Brady has been a superstar with Gronkowski and basically a league-average passer without him. Here are Brady's numbers since Gronk entered the league in 2010 in games with and without his longtime tight end. I'm also putting the 49ers game on the latter side, given that Gronkowski played just seven snaps before leaving:

Joe Flacco and Sam Bradford, all of whom have passer ratings between 83 and 86 over that time frame. It's true that every quarterback will look worse without his No. 1 weapon, and it's entirely possible that Brady and the Pats are better-equipped to handle Gronkowski's absence this time around with Bennett.

It's also very clear that Tom Brady is not Tom Brady without Rob Gronkowski. Remember who Brady goes to when the chips are down. As much as he trusts Julian Edelman, it was Gronkowski who Brady threw to on fourth-and-the-season twice against the Broncos in the AFC Championship Game last season, even though his tight end was double-covered on both occasions. They simply aren't the same team without him.

NOTE: ESPN link

 

[Bill Lee]

I read elsewhere (can't find the link now) that the Pats were in a 2 TE set only 27% of the time this season and the 3 WR set was more frequent. Gronk will be missed, but the Pats will adapt. That's the way this team is structured.

I've listened to Barnwell's podcasts a lot and while he's better than most at knowing more than the star players on a team, he still keys too much on the stars, IMHO. He is famous for keying on DVOA but doesn't seem to accept that a good DVOA comes from having a solid 11 players on the field all the time rather than two stars and 9 scrubs.

Above he talks about the small margin of error. What team with any aspirations at all has a large margin of error?

 

[SVN]

I read elsewhere (can't find the link now) that the Pats were in a 2 TE set only 27% of the time this season and the 3 WR set was more frequent. Gronk will be missed, but the Pats will adapt. That's the way this team is structured.

I've listened to Barnwell's podcasts a lot and while he's better than most at knowing more than the star players on a team, he still keys too much on the stars, IMHO. He is famous for keying on DVOA but doesn't seem to accept that a good DVOA comes from having a solid 11 players on the field all the time rather than two stars and 9 scrubs.

Above he talks about the small margin of error. What team with any aspirations at all has a large margin of error?

I actually got this from reiss
Patriots' offense must reinvent itself without Rob Gronkowski

Multiple-tight end packages will decline: When Gronkowski and fellow tight end Martellus Bennett were both healthy, the Patriots were primarily a two-tight end offense. Consider that entering their Nov. 20 game at San Francisco (in which Gronkowski did not play), the Patriots had run 245 plays with two or more tight ends on the field, which was the second-highest total in the NFL. At that point, Patriots' tight ends led NFL tight ends in receiving yards (1,044) and were tied for second in receiving touchdowns (seven).

 

[Bill Lee]

Yeah, I did some googling and can't find the article I read earlier.

Barnwell's article is pretty balanced, as usual.

The key point I take away is:

The strength of the Patriots' offense, especially over the past decade under the on-again, off-again stewardship of Josh McDaniels, has been its ability to change its shape. Having Tom Brady helps, of course, but we saw how effective the offense could be during the first three weeks of the season, with Garoppolo at quarterback and Gronkowski either out or a shell of his usual self. The Patriots have managed to transition from a spread attack with Randy Moss and Wes Welker to the two-tight-end sets of Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez to an offense that incorporates both. They've overcome subpar offensive lines and managed to get the most out of players other teams weren't interested in, such as Julian Edelman, Dion Lewis and Martellus Bennett.

... but of course it is true that Gronk will be missed.

 

[luuked]

Seems like we are finally turning the page to a more fruitful discussion of Gronk's loss. The excessive formation talk might even keep the yokels out of this thread.

Like I have tried to say before the thing I am most worried about is the run game. Having Gronk/Bennett on the field meant that the opponents had to make a decision in terms of matchups and it seems like often it left us with lighter boxes to attack.

In terms of redzone potency I am less worried than in any year before because of Lewis. While having Gronk there would be the icing on the cake I think that having Lewis still leave McD with enough room to be creative create mismatches by formation.

I am really looking forward to the games against the Ravens and Broncos to see in what direction the offense will evolve. I don't expect much from the Rams game.

 

[JMC00]

It's also very clear that Tom Brady is not Tom Brady without Rob Gronkowski.

What an absolutely stupid f**king comment.

 

[BelichickFan]

I read elsewhere (can't find the link now) that the Pats were in a 2 TE set only 27% of the time this season and the 3 WR set was more frequent.

Here you go :

Doug Kyed ‏@DougKyed 16h16 hours ago
Gronk/Bennett have only shared the field on 27% of Patriots offensive snaps this season. Patriots don't need to dramatically shift offense.

Of course a good part of that is due to injury and the % would be a good bit higher when they were both available. That said, when they were, they were still in 1 TE more often than I expected. Other than the murderer, Bennett is the best TE we've had in a long time not named Gronk. Things will be tougher but Edelman, Hogan, Amendola, Bennett, LG with the G.O.A.T. is fine with Mitchell, White and Lewis also making good contributions.

 

[oldrover]

Seems like we are finally turning the page to a more fruitful discussion of Gronk's loss. The excessive formation talk might even keep the yokels out of this thread.

"People are talking intelligently and rationally?!?!! Run!!! Run away!!!"

 

[drewskie]

I feel more confident this year in our offense than any other year in which we've lost Gronk.

Time will tell. Whethe or not they put him on IR today or whenever will obviously tell us if there's a chance if he'll be back as late as SB51 should we be fortunate enough to make it.

Id we keep HFA in the AFC I would still expect us to be favs in every home playoff game barring further injuries. No real juggernauts across the league.

 

[neuronet]

I am really looking forward to the games against the Ravens and Broncos to see in what direction the offense will evolve. I don't expect much from the Rams game.

Why don't you expect much from the Rams game, because the Rams suck, or less time to prep since Sunday? I am curious how he handles the Rams, because they actually have a decent good D Line, and without Gronk to block it will be interesting to see what we do.

Develin more, maybe, in the I formation? I kinda like when they do that. Wouldn't it be crazy if we ran with Blount, Develin in the I, and Lewis acting as a receiver. Wait what about the power I with Develin shading left to help the blindside? Is that too crazy? Have we ever seen that in the Pats? And if not, maybe it's just crazy enough to work because it's the last thing they'll expect.

OTOH, dummy, rather than play to their strenght and do something completely new, maybe just do what you are good at, spread the defense, don't go against their strength, but go against their weakness (which is their secondary). So just something like the Pistol? Get it to Hogan, Amendola, Edelman, and Bennett....And Blount.

It's not like we don't have weapons! Gronk wasn't full strength until, what was it, around game 6 or 7 this year?

 

[Bill Lee]

Here you go :

Doug Kyed ‏@DougKyed 16h16 hours ago
Gronk/Bennett have only shared the field on 27% of Patriots offensive snaps this season. Patriots don't need to dramatically shift offense.

Of course a good part of that is due to injury and the % would be a good bit higher when they were both available. That said, when they were, they were still in 1 TE more often than I expected. Other than the murderer, Bennett is the best TE we've had in a long time not named Gronk. Things will be tougher but Edelman, Hogan, Amendola, Bennett, LG with the G.O.A.T. is fine with Mitchell, White and Lewis also making good contributions.

Thanks for pointing that out. I didn't remember it correctly, because the stat is the amount of time MB+RG were in a 2 TE set, not the percentage of all 2 TE sets. However, we are in agreement that it's surprising how much time we spend in 1 TE sets.

Personally, I'm in the group of people that wish we still had Derby around. I doubt he'd get many snaps, but there are times that it's useful to present a 2nd downfield threat at TE, and Lengel is there for the run game, not the passing game.

 

[luuked]

Why don't you expect much from the Rams game, because the Rams suck, or less time to prep since Sunday? I am curious how he handles the Rams, because they actually have a decent good D Line, and without Gronk to block it will be interesting to see what we do.

Develin more, maybe, in the I formation? I kinda like when they do that. Wouldn't it be crazy if we ran with Blount, Develin in the I, and Lewis acting as a receiver. Wait what about the power I with Develin shading left to help the blindside? Is that too crazy? Have we ever seen that in the Pats? And if not, maybe it's just crazy enough to work because it's the last thing they'll expect.

OTOH, dummy, rather than play to their strenght and do something completely new, maybe just do what you are good at, spread the defense, don't go against their strength, but go against their weakness (which is their secondary). So just something like the Pistol? Get it to Hogan, Amendola, Edelman, and Bennett....And Blount.

It's not like we don't have weapons! Gronk wasn't full strength until, what was it, around game 6 or 7 this year?

No it's not because they are crap but simply because I don't think that missing Gronk changes the gameplan in this game a lot. So the "not expecting much" was meant in the context of Gronk being out for the year.

Personally, I think we will see Josh throw a lot of different things at them and when we find something that works we will hammer them with it. So it could be another one of those that will seem close until halftime.

 

[aluminum seats]

It's also very clear that Tom Brady is not Tom Brady without Rob Gronkowski.

What an absolutely stupid f**king comment.

He's just basing it on the numbers, where it's sort of true. You can add context to it, but it's not "absolutely stupid f**king" etc.

 

[TomPatriot]

He's just basing it on the numbers, where it's sort of true. You can add context to it, but it's not "absolutely stupid f**king" etc.

He had three rings and 4 SB appearances before Gronk arrived. Plus Mitchell looks like he is coming into his own as the season progresses and Dion is back. And there is that huge all-pro TE "backup." They are better with Gronk but Brady still has a lot of weapons. I think JM is pretty much right.

 

[Bill Lee]

He's just basing it on the numbers, where it's sort of true. You can add context to it, but it's not "absolutely stupid f**king" etc.

It's basically like saying "we don't get as much done at work when Person X is out", it's not saying "we all become worthless when Person X is out".

 

[aluminum seats]

He had three rings and 4 SB appearances before Gronk arrived. Plus Mitchell looks like he is coming into his own as the season progresses and Dion is back. And there is that huge all-pro TE "backup." They are better with Gronk but Brady still has a lot of weapons. I think JM is pretty much right.

Which is why I said you can add context to it. But the numbers say that since Gronk arrived in 2010 Brady's passer rating is below the league average when Gronk doesn't play.

 

[JMC00]

He's just basing it on the numbers, where it's sort of true. You can add context to it, but it's not "absolutely stupid f**king" etc.

Oh it's absolutely f**king stupid because those numbers are mainly based off 2013 which anyone knows on here was arguably the worst set of receivers Brady has ever had.

Also Brady didn't join the Pats in '10

 

[JMC00]

Which is why I said you can add context to it. But the numbers say that since Gronk arrived in 2010 Brady's passer rating is below the league average when Gronk doesn't play.

Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Tompkins and Michael Hoomanuwinui is why it is.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

If Bennett is half the player Gronk is, they should be fine at the TE spot. Other teams are not going to leave bennett alone. You won't see defenses roll two guys on him (I anticipate them double teaming edelman), but that leaves him one-on-one with a LB. I'll take that matchup any day. It should be noted that Bennett has been severely underutilized this year. Part of that is Brady always throwing to Gronk, part of that is injury.

 

[Gronkowski123]

Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Tompkins and Michael Hoomanuwinui is why it is.

brady's struggled in the playoffs without gronk..

2013 title game away in denver. 2012 title game at home against the ravens. no gronk, but he still had welker, woodhead, hernandez, brandon lloyd...