Pats Should Keep Garoppolo Through 2017

[patfanken]

With all due respect Ken, I think the most compelling argument would simply be the possibility of passing the torch from one franchise QB to another. Certainly not meaning to be a smartass, as I'm quite sure you've covered many possibilities while pondering the idea.

Garoppolo has obviously progressed quite nicely and has a good grasp of our system. To me, that's likely the most important trait, even more than "just" talent. That said, he certainly has looked plenty talented and has shown quite a lot of poise in his first 2 starts. I don't think anyone better is coming through that door anytime soon in terms of future franchise QBs, but of course that's simply my humble opinion.

Here is my response.

a. HTF do you "pass the torch" when releasing Tom Brady after the 2017 creates a dead cap issue that completely destroys your cap structure. And I'm assuming here that "passing the torch" means Tom Brady is no longer a Patriot in 2018 Again it would cost over 20MM to get rid of Brady and another 20 MM to sign JG long term.

If Miguel comes on the site and explains how that could happen realistically, then I might reconsider my opinion, but right now I can't see it happening, ESPECIALLY when we are going to have to sign at minimum THREE top of the market deals to keep the core of our team together THIS off season, and then sign another half dozen FA's to decent deals if we want to keep our team together. Now based on what Miguel has written I believe we can get most of this accomplished. HOWEVER if Miguel is correct (as he usually is), one year later our cap IS NOT going to be able to absorb a $40+MM hit at the QB position for 2018.

This isn't an issue of JG's talent and potential, nor is it even an issue of Tom Brady or JG (though I have to admit I have no clue as to what people who want to move on from Brady are thinking). It's an issue of contracts and timing..

b. No one is more excited about how well JG looked in those 5+ quarters. I expect him to be good, but not THAT good. HOWEVER this is only 5+ Quarters. Has everyone forgotten how good Tony Eason was before he got beat up and became the gun shy "turtler" that seems to his only legacy. It was a lot longer than just 5 quarters. I can even remember how great Jim Plunket looked for a few years before he too took too many big hits.

That's why I don't understand how you can possible want to "move on" from Tom Brady for a guy (as good as a prospect as he seems) couldn't get through a game and half before he got hurt. And they want to do this BEFORE even Brady shows a scintilla of decline.

c. I do not understand why there seems to be such an urgency to make a decision when there is ANOTHER QB prospect on the roster who might be every bit as good as JG, though we won't know for sure for another 2 years. A prospect whose contract spans the timing that fits the cap and the eventual decline in Brady I'm expecting to see after the 2018 season.

d. I do not understand how people don't see how valuable an asset JG would be after the 2016 season, and how much less an asset he'd be after 2017...if anything at all. So again, I ask a question, why would you waste a premium asset when the alternative seems to be either destroying you cap structure or becoming another one of those top heavy teams thin teams we saw here in the late 90's, and ruin your team building philosophy of building a deep team with lots of depth and a strong middle class.

And I blame you for keeping up past 2am to write this

 

[patfanken]

Two years is a long way off and there may be options for keeping Garoppolo that no one is entertaining. Ken, if you don't see rare potential in the kid that already has been demonstrated in tough circumstances, you aren't looking closely enough. His mechanics, ability to see the field, decision-making and accuracy are special. If you want to write off what he did in Arizona and vs. Miami as a fluke or luck, you're willingly turning a blind eye.

See my reply to Sup, I'm too tired to write another for you

 

[Grizzafted]

when brady's holding the lombardi after throwing for 250 yards and 2 td's in a super bowl at a record age of 42 i will bump this thread.

 

[Ivan]

I agree, but do you think the Pats should keep three QBs on the roster for another entire season?

If need be.

 

[Tony2046]

What kind of possibilities do you envision, Tune? I'm assuming some type of lesser deal for Garoppolo where he leaves a lot of money on the table to stay here and hold the clipboard for another year or two (after his deal is up at the end of 2017)?

Even if that were to happen at say, 50% "off" the market rate (I think it's safe to assume that he'll be looking at 20m or so, based on the fact that Osweiler just snagged 18m and that would be a few years earlier), we'd still be tying up 32m dollars in cap space at the position of QB. 22m for Brady and the suggested 10m for JG.

You may have a valid point that Belichick would do that for a year in order to make a smooth transition. I would agree that he may make an exception due to the circumstances. After all, franchise QBs don't come around all that often. My concern for this would be that 1) Brady may not feel as though he's done by the end of 2018, and 2) Garoppolo may not want to leave that kind of money on the table.

Any way you look at it, this will be an important decision.

Would it surprise you if Brady took a 1$ contract? Just curious.

But the point is both Brady and JG have the same agent. Could the Pats, Brady and JG work something out?

I think if BB thinks JG's upside is that special then all possibilities are on the table including both Brady and JG splitting the costs.

But if I had to choose right now which one to keep its Tom Brady all day. You cannot guarantee me that JG will deliver a SB but I can guarantee you that Brady can and has.

Btw: If Brady had this offensive line type performance last year in the AFCCG we would have witnessed another trophy. Put JG behind last year's O line and tell me he would have gotten us to within two points. I highly doubt it.

 

[supafly]

Here is my response.

a. HTF do you "pass the torch" when releasing Tom Brady after the 2017 creates a dead cap issue that completely destroys your cap structure. And I'm assuming here that "passing the torch" means Tom Brady is no longer a Patriot in 2018 Again it would cost over 20MM to get rid of Brady and another 20 MM to sign JG long term.

If Miguel comes on the site and explains how that could happen realistically, then I might reconsider my opinion, but right now I can't see it happening, ESPECIALLY when we are going to have to sign at minimum THREE top of the market deals to keep the core of our team together THIS off season, and then sign another half dozen FA's to decent deals if we want to keep our team together. Now based on what Miguel has written I believe we can get most of this accomplished. HOWEVER if Miguel is correct (as he usually is), one year later our cap IS NOT going to be able to absorb a $40+MM hit at the QB position for 2018.

This isn't an issue of JG's talent and potential, nor is it even an issue of Tom Brady or JG (though I have to admit I have no clue as to what people who want to move on from Brady are thinking). It's an issue of contracts and timing..

b. No one is more excited about how well JG looked in those 5+ quarters. I expect him to be good, but not THAT good. HOWEVER this is only 5+ Quarters. Has everyone forgotten how good Tony Eason was before he got beat up and became the gun shy "turtler" that seems to his only legacy. It was a lot longer than just 5 quarters. I can even remember how great Jim Plunket looked for a few years before he too took too many big hits.

That's why I don't understand how you can possible want to "move on" from Tom Brady for a guy (as good as a prospect as he seems) couldn't get through a game and half before he got hurt. And they want to do this BEFORE even Brady shows a scintilla of decline.

c. I do not understand why there seems to be such an urgency to make a decision when there is ANOTHER QB prospect on the roster who might be every bit as good as JG, though we won't know for sure for another 2 years. A prospect whose contract spans the timing that fits the cap and the eventual decline in Brady I'm expecting to see after the 2018 season.

d. I do not understand how people don't see how valuable an asset JG would be after the 2016 season, and how much less an asset he'd be after 2017...if anything at all. So again, I ask a question, why would you waste a premium asset when the alternative seems to be either destroying you cap structure or becoming another one of those top heavy teams thin teams we saw here in the late 90's, and ruin your team building philosophy of building a deep team with lots of depth and a strong middle class.

And I blame you for keeping up past 2am to write this

In my hypothetical (and admittedly, likely fantastical) scenario, Belichick would keep them both for another year in 2018, so Brady would be saving 15m dollars against the cap by trading him after 3 more years. Obviously, the deeper we get into Brady's deal, the more of a cap savings, right?

We know we can keep them both for 2 more years with getting back a 3rd round comp pick, but is there any scenario where they could keep them both for three more years? Would that be a solution that could satisfy Brady, Garoppolo and Belichick with compromise? That's the question that I posed, and that may allow for the closest we'd get for the passing of the torch. That particular scenario is the only way that I could see keeping Garoppolo, other than trading Brady at the end of next year and absorbing the dead cap hit. While it is 14m, remember that his overall cap hit jumps to 22m after next season.

It's not likely, but there are some scenarios where Belichick could be a bit more flexible both in his thinking and also cap wise knowing that he has a keeper. I don't think many are expecting to realistically keep both, but it will be interesting to see how Belichick handles the situation if he thinks JG may be "it" with Tom Brady pushing 41 (end of 2017 season/spring 2018).

Would Kraft and Belichick really trade Brady if they felt that JG is the real deal? I'm hesitant to believe it could happen, but I can say that many here will discuss it, even if it's past your bedtime.

 

[supafly]

Would it surprise you if Brady took a 1$ contract? Just curious.

But the point is both Brady and JG have the same agent. Could the Pats, Brady and JG work something out?

I think if BB thinks JG's upside is that special then all possibilities are on the table including both Brady and JG splitting the costs.

But if I had to choose right now which one to keep its Tom Brady all day. You cannot guarantee me that JG will deliver a SB but I can guarantee you that Brady can and has.

Btw: If Brady had this offensive line type performance last year in the AFCCG we would have witnessed another trophy. Put JG behind last year's O line and tell me he would have gotten us to within two points. I highly doubt it.

Well, I don't believe he can take a deal like that, Tony. I believe the NFLPA has agreed to the absolute, bottom line minimum for a veteran player and last I checked it was roughly a million dollars a year or so.

Besides, he's already taking base salaries of 1m dollars for both this year and the next, and he can't get it lower for the future without another extension, so that doesn't get us anywhere. It would seem as though it has to be a "one or the other" scenario. If Brady is kept, it would make sense to either trade JG sometime before the trade deadline of next season, (end of Oct. maybe?) or keep him as a backup through 2017 then tag/trade him like we did with Cassel. The difference may be that the team could plan accordingly and carry the cap space from the tag until traded more easily. It probably wouldn't be a big deal either way.

If your choice is to trade Brady, it would be best to wait until after the 2017 season when a cap savings is seen. In my fantasy scenario response to Ken, I pondered the lower likelihood idea of reaching an extension with JG after next season and paying more than expected for one season until TB12 retires or is traded. While it isn't like BB to overpay for a position, there could be a bit of creativity if needed. Unfortunately, the bottom line is that it's just too impractical so a decision will need to be made after 2017.

 

[long distance]

a. HTF do you "pass the torch" when releasing Tom Brady after the 2017 creates a dead cap issue that completely destroys your cap structure. And I'm assuming here that "passing the torch" means Tom Brady is no longer a Patriot in 2018 Again it would cost over 20MM to get rid of Brady and another 20 MM to sign JG long term.

If Miguel comes on the site and explains how that could happen realistically, then I might reconsider my opinion, but right now I can't see it happening, ESPECIALLY when we are going to have to sign at minimum THREE top of the market deals to keep the core of our team together THIS off season, and then sign another half dozen FA's to decent deals if we want to keep our team together. Now based on what Miguel has written I believe we can get most of this accomplished. HOWEVER if Miguel is correct (as he usually is), one year later our cap IS NOT going to be able to absorb a $40+MM hit at the QB position for 2018.

And I blame you for keeping up past 2am to write this

ken the GM is killing ken the coach .. .. (at least his health)
_

seriously though one key point of the article is that NE has control over JG situation for three more years (including this one) w possible tag for 2018. That gives them a lot of time to see how the situation plays out. They should be in no hurry - no matter the offers - and if they see JG as potential next - I guess they won't be.

Re. cap .. I would also love to hear from Miguel (so if he wants his Pats Fan of the Year ribbon he better get his ass here soon ..) - but let me try understand it:

For 2017 (the big FA year) both are set at - TB 14M; JG 1M cap hit. So they can easily wait through this - from the cap point alone.

In 2018 the article mentions (not suggests) the possibility of franchise tag - i guess the number would be around 20M. TB cap hit would be 22M - dead cap 14M if for any reason he is not on the team anymore.
I agree it is highly unlikely they put themselves in this situation - but like supafly and tony2046 suggested - there is some flexibility possible here if they all want to sit at the same table.
_

The thing is they have a lot of control in considerable amount of time to take this important decision. And I would guess thinking about draft picks will not be the first thing on their minds.

There are so many factors that will come into play in this period of time. I agree winning the SB with TB might be a significant one.

 

[mgteich]

BOTTOM LINE: I haven't seen anything close to a reasonable argument for keep Jimmy past this season. The ONLY possible reason would be if Brady's play falls off a cliff THIS season, or he has a catastrophic injury during the year.

I strongly disagree. Making believe that Brady will be our quarterback through 2020 is fine, but it is wishful thinking. At this point, the backup needs to be a very good quarterback, experienced in the system.

Of course, if we believe that we have TWO such backups after 2016, one can be traded.

 

[patfanken]

I strongly disagree. Making believe that Brady will be our quarterback through 2020 is fine, but it is wishful thinking. At this point, the backup needs to be a very good quarterback, experienced in the system.

Of course, if we believe that we have TWO such backups after 2016, one can be traded.

You can can disagree all you want, but at least get your facts straight. I never said that Brady would be our QB through 2020. My estimate was a more realistic 2018. That's just 3 more seasons (including this one). Going out to 2020 WOULD be wishful thinking.

2. Your second point was equally fallacious. Why do you dismiss the possibility that Brissett, after 2 more years of training in this system, wouldn't turn into a good NFL QB, just like JG has.

3. Finally, you still haven't explained the "logistics" part of the JG problem. If the Pats move on from Brady after the 2017 season, how do they get past the $40+MM cap hit they would have to absorb at the QB just a year after paying for all those FA's the year before.

 

[archstanton543]

************.

 

[SVN]

I think the patriots like brisset enough that they will be okay to trade Jimmy without much regrets. Probably the reason they drafted him because jimmy was on his penultimate year.

 

[hovis]

I'd love to hear Miguel's take on this situation.

Couldn't the Patriots trade Brady after 2017 and transfer the responsibility for his base salary to the team that gets him? IIRC, his last two are base: 14; signing bonus: 7; roster bonus: 0. Which would mean a 14 million cap hit for trading him before the start of 2018. To me - that's manageable if you find a QB you can extend that is willing to defer one year of salary to help the team.

It pains me to say this, but at some point you might want to think about Brady like you would think about the best car you ever had - that now has 200k+ miles on it. It's been a great ride, but sentimentality won't get you where you want to go.

 

[IllegalContact]

BOTTOM LINE: I haven't seen anything close to a reasonable argument for keep Jimmy past this season. The ONLY possible reason would be if Brady's play falls off a cliff THIS season, or he has a catastrophic injury during the year.

Brady is pushing 40....that in itself is a reasonable argument

you'd have to be an idiot to leave your pants down that way

 

[IllegalContact]

I think the patriots like brisset enough that they will be okay to trade Jimmy without much regrets. Probably the reason they drafted him because jimmy was on his penultimate year.

I don't think he's shown anything resembling a full time QB

 

[Tunescribe]

You can can disagree all you want, but at least get your facts straight. I never said that Brady would be our QB through 2020. My estimate was a more realistic 2018. That's just 3 more seasons (including this one). Going out to 2020 WOULD be wishful thinking.

2. Your second point was equally fallacious. Why do you dismiss the possibility that Brissett, after 2 more years of training in this system, wouldn't turn into a good NFL QB, just like JG has.

3. Finally, you still haven't explained the "logistics" part of the JG problem. If the Pats move on from Brady after the 2017 season, how do they get past the $40+MM cap hit they would have to absorb at the QB just a year after paying for all those FA's the year before.

If you believe Brady is done after 2018 -- and I agree that's realistic -- then finding a way to "creatively finance" both he and Grop for ONE YEAR should be the goal IF BB concludes he has franchise QB potential. This is what I've been saying all along. You have concluded it can't be done; I think there might be a way if the will is there (which likely would necessitate Grop compromising to a degree).

 

[SVN]

I don't think he's shown anything resembling a full time QB

Sure. But he is a rookie who split reps with 3 QBs unlike say Dak prescott who prepared all season to start. And from the looks of it I think they like him enough to develop further. He is certainly better than mallet or any of other ones they tried. He may turn out to be a dud but they kept Jimmy G these yrs without knowing if he was a full time QB either. I mean after the 3rd pre season game this yr people were wondering if BB played brady too much and cost jimmy preparation time after how bad jimmy looked.
If the coaching staff feels brisset can be a good backup and take over the system and someone offers a great price for Jimmy, he will be traded.

 

[patfanken]

Brady is pushing 40....that in itself is a reasonable argument

you'd have to be an idiot to leave your pants down that way

If it had been any other QB, I'd agree, but Brady appears to be the exception that proves the rule. And for the 3rd time in this thread, how are your pants down when you have the prospect of Brissett growing up in his system and under contract for 4 more seasons (including this one).

He certainly didn't prove he's a great QB in his one start, or even a good one, BUT he did prove that he has the poise and work ethic to become one over the next few years. So how again are our pants down.

And finally (again for the 3rd time this thread) do we get passed the logistics problem of the $40+million dollar cap number for the QB position to start the 2018 season after we have "moved on" from Brady.

Like I said maybe Miguel has a scenario where that can happen, but he hasn't put it forth yet.

 

[XLIX]

Would it surprise you if Brady took a 1$ contract? Just curious.

It would certainly surprise me as such a deal would violate the CBA.

But the point is both Brady and JG have the same agent. Could the Pats, Brady and JG work something out?

You have 1 team and 2 QB's who want to start. I don't see how having the same agent solves that math problem.

I think if BB thinks JG's upside is that special then all possibilities are on the table including both Brady and JG splitting the costs.

I just don't see the fellas signing onto that.

 

[patfanken]

If you believe Brady is done after 2018 -- and I agree that's realistic -- then finding a way to "creatively finance" both he and Grop for ONE YEAR should be the goal IF BB concludes he has franchise QB potential. This is what I've been saying all along. You have concluded it can't be done; I think there might be a way if the will is there (which likely would necessitate Grop compromising to a degree).

Now you're the one who is being unrealistic. After the 2o17 season, JG is looking at a big payday, I mean a REALLY big payday. I've read where the Franchise Tag for a QB will be in excess of 23MM. So either he's traded after the 2016 season and has been a starter for another team for a year on short money and gets paid, or he's a FA with successful starting experience who can now start for another team AT a starter's salary.

So WTF would Jimmy spend ANOTHER year sitting on the bench AND at short money simply to stay with the Pats. By any definition THAT would be wishful thinking.

I think the Pats drafted Jimmy because they wanted to protect themselves against Brady slipping at an age where most QB's slip. When TB didn't show any signs of slipping at 39, they drafted Brissett to give them 3 more years of "slippage protection". Jimmy's time just ran out. Fortunately for him the fates gave him the opportunity to show off his skills, and that made him a premium asset in a QB poor environment. I'm sure if Brady has his way, he'll want to make sure Brissett's "time will run out", but that's less likely even for Tom, though I wouldn't want to put money on it.