I think we can all agree that cameraplacementgate was a vast overreaction, however it wasn't without some provocation as well. The Pats were warned on a number of occasions to cease doing the taping from the banned areas. There in lies the problem for the Jets. The Jets have had a long history of PROVEN tampering going back to Parcells and beyond. Given Johnson's earlier transgression and WRITTEN warning, you'd think the league couldn't afford to allow him to get away with a mere slap on the wrist.
If the rules mean anything and the league's has any desire to enforce those rules, they HAVE deliver a punishment that hurts, otherwise why have the rule. So I would think it would have to be harsher than losing a 7th and swapping a mid-round pick, it would have to create more pain.
Losing their first or swapping firsts with us would unfortunately be too onerous, so in that context I would agree with Rob. However swapping 2nd and 7th round picks WOULD send the appropriate message. It would be sufficiently painful to go from 38 to 64, without crippling their draft for merely having an idiot for an owner.
History would warn us that it's unlikely that the league is going to anything, regardless of the fact it was a textbook case of tampering. And once again I expect the league FO will show us how inept they are at policing their own laws, by continually overreacting to some things or turning a blind eye to others.