Quarterback and Running Back

[manxman2601]

I have no idea how you came to such a conclusion, because it makes no sense, so I really can't break down a full response to it. I'll just leave it like this:

1.) The team has a legit* starting RB1, a backup RB1, a legit FB and a legit 'starting' 3DRB. They don't have a legit starting S2, a legit starting LB3, a legit starting DT without health issues or a legit TE2.

2.) IOL was a bigger problem last year than the RBs, so OC and ORG are, or should be, higher priorities than RB.

3.) The WR corps is questionable, and the young player many are looking at as the anchor is reportedly still dealing with a foot issue.


*Note that legit, in this case, is being used to mean established as quality, or at least viable.

You are just proffering your opinion. I think RB in the medium to longer term is a much weaker position than safety. We have starting DTs, DEs and safety's in place for the medium to long term. They are the luxury picks, not the position where we have no-one on the roster for 2015 as of right now.

 

[manxman2601]

I get your point. But i would describe it as a luxury pick due to a couple of things. ATM we have Ridley, Vereen and Bolden all in their 4th years with the club. Any pick would conceivably be RB 4 on our depth chart. I also think other people would argue (me included) that in the 1st 3 rounds we have some bigger needs just for example TE, DE, LB and Saftey.

But the big factor in all of this "should we take a RB early" talk is that the general consensus is you can get your RB in the 3rd round and later and get just as good a RB as the one in the 1st.

In saying that one thing that negates my argument is if you look at the top 20 RB's by production last year, 16 were picked in the 1st 3 rounds of the draft. 11 in the 1st 2 rounds.

But the problem is that you then get guys like Morris, Foster, Blount, Ivory, Jackson and Stacy who people always say look they could have been had for a 7th.

In truth, you can get any player at any position late in the draft. Regardless, all I said was that it would be folly to rule out taking a RB in a very deep draft, I said nothing about where that RB should be taken.

 

[supafly]

We now have this tasty tidbit offering from Shane Vereen to go on as well:

http://nesn.com/2014/05/patriots-running-back-shane-vereen-wrist-still-isnt-100-percent/

That must have been one hell of a wrist injury.

I can certainly envision a RB taken, although it's difficult to try and project where.

 

[mgteich]

I was discussing DI's position of us not needing a RB. He posted

"They have absolutely no need to draft a running back. It's a luxury pick."

As far as particular RB's, I simply want the need addressed. If Belichick thinks that Seastrunk in the 3rd (or early 4th) is the answer and would likely be a 2015 starter, then fine. Last time we needed a starting RB in the next year, we used a 2nd AND a 3rd.

I respect the other posters who do not see a 2014 need; although we do need someone ready to take serious reps in case of injury. They focus on this year, and ignore 2015.

I assume you either don't rate Seastrunk or didn't see that I'd put him in that post. He would come in and push Ridley to start week 1.

RB just isn't as big of a need as TE, OC, OG, DT or LB.

 

[ausbacker]

I was discussing DI's position of us not needing a RB. He posted

"They have absolutely no need to draft a running back. It's a luxury pick."

As far as particular RB's, I simply want the need addressed. If Belichick thinks that Seastrunk in the 3rd (or early 4th) is the answer and would likely be a 2015 starter, then fine. Last time we needed a starting RB in the next year, we used a 2nd AND a 3rd.

I respect the other posters who do not see a 2014 need; although we do need someone ready to take serious reps in case of injury. They focus on this year, and ignore 2015.

If the Patriots are able to trade down from 29 and collect some mid-round picks, there's a group of Running Backs I would be happy to have the Patriots select. I don't see the position as an area of immediate need given the veterans still available on the market.

 

[Deus Irae]

You are just proffering your opinion. I think RB in the medium to longer term is a much weaker position than safety. We have starting DTs, DEs and safety's in place for the medium to long term. They are the luxury picks, not the position where we have no-one on the roster for 2015 as of right now.

Medium to longer term is irrelevant for the RB position. Lack of starter players at positions is, on the other hand, relevant. Your argument continues to make no sense. Positions of need aren't luxury picks. Positions of no need are luxury picks.

QB
RB

Luxury picks

 

[patsinthesnow]

Andre Williams could step in day one and compete for the starting job in the 3rd round. He would be our 2015 starter for less than a million while Ridley walks elsewhere.

This draft has a good amount of talented RBs that could probably beat out Ridley for the starting job (Williams, Hyde, Mason, Sankey). Upgrading our starting RB and securing a starter for 2015 and beyond is worth a late 2nd-3rd, but it looks like me/manx/mgteich are in the minority on this one.

 

[Deus Irae]

I was discussing DI's position of us not needing a RB. He posted

"They have absolutely no need to draft a running back. It's a luxury pick."

As far as particular RB's, I simply want the need addressed. If Belichick thinks that Seastrunk in the 3rd (or early 4th) is the answer and would likely be a 2015 starter, then fine. Last time we needed a starting RB in the next year, we used a 2nd AND a 3rd.

I respect the other posters who do not see a 2014 need; although we do need someone ready to take serious reps in case of injury. They focus on this year, and ignore 2015.

People, including yourself, seem to be confusing 'need' with want. The current Patriots system makes the non-3rd down RBs almost completely fungible. While it would be great to have an AdP, that's not a necessary cog in this particular machine. BJGE demonstrated that pretty well, I think.

Because of loss/injury, the following positions have major question marks and have some level of need:

DT
TE
LB
S
WR (at least arguably, with one of the theoretical starters still dealing with a foot injury)

Because of really poor play (or a need to rely too much on starters), the following positions have levels of need:

OL (especially IOL)
DE

When you look at the Offense and defense, the only areas that don't currently have a level of need are

QB
CB
RB (beyond a #3 rb for depth)


In a draft that's supposedly got plenty of depth, the team has an opportunity to deal with multiple needs. Let it look to wants afterwards.

 

[manxman2601]

Medium to longer term is irrelevant for the RB position. Lack of starter players at positions is, on the other hand, relevant. Your argument continues to make no sense. Positions of need aren't luxury picks. Positions of no need are luxury picks.

QB
RB

Luxury picks

I can't be bothered Deus. You are just being silly.

 

[Big-T]

Bolden is a JAG
Ridley can't be trusted
Vereen has injury issues
All of them are in contract years

how can RB be considered just a luxury pick? Is it a pressing need? No, is it a need? Yes.

 

[SacPete1]

I can easily see a QB being taken based on the apparent number of highly rated prospects. More significantly, I'm hoping that value results in a good one being available at pick 29 and the Pats moving out of that spot and picking up an extra 2nd and 3rd (maybe 4th). If they sit at 29, I think it just comes down to their highest rated player and someone who they can project to be a 3 down player.

As for RB, this is definitely a precarious position for them so I'm not in the camp that believes they don't need one. That said, it does not appear to be a very highly rated class so I would not expect one picked before the 3rd round and well all is said and done, I wouldn't be surprised to see up to 3 RB's added through the draft and UDFA. I'm not looking for a Blount replacement necessarily but would like to see a back with receiving skills since after Vereen, there is a huge drop-off. I'm partial to backs that can diagnose and pick up blitzes, good hands and hit holes fast and decisively. These backs can then play any down and do not limit the offense's play selection.

 

[Ring 6]

I was discussing DI's position of us not needing a RB. He posted

"They have absolutely no need to draft a running back. It's a luxury pick."

As far as particular RB's, I simply want the need addressed. If Belichick thinks that Seastrunk in the 3rd (or early 4th) is the answer and would likely be a 2015 starter, then fine. Last time we needed a starting RB in the next year, we used a 2nd AND a 3rd.

I respect the other posters who do not see a 2014 need; although we do need someone ready to take serious reps in case of injury. They focus on this year, and ignore 2015.

Before that we used a first on Maroney. Before that we used a 2nd to trade for Corey Dillon.
Its comical to see an argument that a RB will fall out of the sky so we should simply ignore the position, but totally out of touch with the history of this team under BB.

 

[chasa]

Bolden is a JAG
Ridley can't be trusted
Vereen has injury issues
All of them are in contract years

how can RB be considered just a luxury pick? Is it a pressing need? No, is it a need? Yes.

Mostly because you can get a running back off the street, plug him into an office, and he has just as good of a chance of being a top ten RB that year, as a RB drafted #1 overall.

Running backs outside of Adrian Peterson are not worth investing money in. that that $100,000 signing bonus you would have given a drafted Running back, and put it to better use elsewhere.

It's a Luxury pick because its so easy to replace, why bother wasting a pick on it. I'll get lambasted for this, but its the same as drafting a kicker in fantasy football. the Very best kickers are only slightly more valuable then the very worst kickers, now a days at least.

 

[Brady6]

For most posters, QB and RB are not early draft needs. They think that the 6th and 7th round will produce a QB to replace Mallett next year and a RB to replace Blount this year.

I would not be surprised to see either or both positions addressed in the first four rounds.

QUARTERBACK
We have discussed Bridgewater or Manziel dropping to us, but not much else. Well, a month ago some wanted McCarron in the 2nd. Mallett will be gone after the season. We need to develop a backup. It seems a total shot in the dark to expect a 6th or 7th rounder to be our backup next year, and be able to start if Brady is down for a few games. YES, I understand that this lightning happened once for Belichick. To count on it happening again seems to be poor planning (not Belichick's style). If this year's addition isn't ready for 2015, Belichick would spending $4M for backup or a top draft pick. In either case, we would hope that they could be ready to start if needed.

I think that a quarterback in the first three rounds is quite possible. 9 quarterbacks may be drafted by then.

RUNNING BACK
Most posters seem to think that the loss of Blount is minor. After all we have Bolden. A 6th rounder could step right and replace Blount. Really???????? I wonder how much money these folks make on playing the lottery.

Also, I would note that Ridley, Vereen and Bolden are all in their contract years.

It is fine to think that RB's are relatively unimportant; that's true. It is quite another to have no plans to replace a key part of our offense, and no reason to go into the season with almost no depth. How many games would you like to play with Vereen and Bolden as our running backs? Running backs get injured often.

I would not be surprised to see a RB picked at 62, or certainly by the end of the 4th round.

I would be very surprised if Belichick took a RB in round four or higher in this draft. I am not sure if many realize that the 2012 offense had more rushing yards than the 2013 team. Ridley had some problems with fumbling last season with 4 fumbles, he appeared to work those issues out with the help of Kevin Faulk and was very secure with the football in the final 5 games of the season. Vereen has the potential if he can stay healthy to be an every down back, and an outstanding one capable of working the running game and the passing game. There is not a player a RB in this draft that is as talented as Ridley or Vereen so I cannot see any reason to draft a player early when the late round RBs offer the same potential.

QB is only a need if Mallett is traded, and that is uncertain. Otherwise, we would be best off letting Mallett play out his deal and address the QB in 2015 instead of using a pick this year. I think it is fascinating that we have arguably the best QB in the history of the NFL and posters believe that a draft class that lacks a sure top 5 QB pick offers the potential replacement for Tom Brady. I would really hope that we invested in a player better than Savage or McCarron to replace the GOAT.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

Mostly because you can get a running back off the street, plug him into an office, and he has just as good of a chance of being a top ten RB that year, as a RB drafted #1 overall.

Running backs outside of Adrian Peterson are not worth investing money in. that that $100,000 signing bonus you would have given a drafted Running back, and put it to better use elsewhere.

It's a Luxury pick because its so easy to replace, why bother wasting a pick on it. I'll get lambasted for this, but its the same as drafting a kicker in fantasy football. the Very best kickers are only slightly more valuable then the very worst kickers, now a days at least.

The numbers don't back you up on this. Thirteen out of the top fifteen rushers from 2013 were picked in the first three rounds, 7 were 1st rounders ( Peterson, Lynch, Matthews, Johnson, Moreno, Bush and Spiller), 3 were 2nd rounders (McCoy, Forte, Lacy), 3 were 3rd rounders (Charles, Murray, Gore), 1 was a fifth rounder (Stacy) and 1 a sixth (Morris).

 

[Brady6]

Bolden is a JAG
Ridley can't be trusted
Vereen has injury issues
All of them are in contract years

how can RB be considered just a luxury pick? Is it a pressing need? No, is it a need? Yes.

Over the final 6 games of 2013 Ridley carried the 62 times, gained 262 yards, scored 2 touchdowns, all without fumbling the football. He did it in poor conditions and against playoff competition. I am not denying that he had an issue but he worked on it with Faulk and I see no reason to believe he will not continue to carry the football securely.

In 2012, we had the #7 ranked rushing attack in the NFL with Ridley leading the way; in 2013, we dropped to #9. It is not a pressing need, having Blount was a luxury last season and if the team felt it was a pressing need they would have paid to retain him.

 

[unoriginal]

IF the Pats don't move Mallett, I doubt they want to carry a third QB, so that precludes a mid-round pick there unless they just love a guy. QBs seem like they'll get overdrafted this year (look at Savage) so unless Mallett gets traded before the start of Day 2 it'll be a guy who has a chance of making the practice squad without being claimed. Perhaps a guy like Fales who could use a redshirt year.

As for RB, I agree with the "luxury pick" crowd. There was no clamour to fill RB4 last year, and little excitement when Blount was obtained for a 7th. Additionally this is a team that picked up Lawfirm as a UDFA and Woodhead as a street FA in-season. Plus Blount himself was once an UDFA. These guys were not high picks or even mid-round picks and arrived to little fanfare yet when they leave people start freaking out and looking for 2nd round picks to replace them.

Next year this team will still have Brandon Bolden under contract, who unlike Lawfirm can catch and doesn't need to come off the field on third downs when he starts, and probably one of Vereen or Ridley will be within the Pats budget to re-sign cheap if they want.

That of course does not preclude the Pats falling in love with a guy they feel is tremendous value on Day 2 but that is the definition of a luxury pick. They could just as well find their guy in the 6th, as a UDFA, or off the waiver wire on cut-down day. Depending on what happens with wide receiver and tight end they may just start the season with three guys with two RBs on the practice squad. (How Lawfirm originally made the team.)

 

[Husse]

Mostly because you can get a running back off the street, plug him into an office, and he has just as good of a chance of being a top ten RB that year, as a RB drafted #1 overall.

Running backs outside of Adrian Peterson are not worth investing money in. that that $100,000 signing bonus you would have given a drafted Running back, and put it to better use elsewhere.

It's a Luxury pick because its so easy to replace, why bother wasting a pick on it. I'll get lambasted for this, but its the same as drafting a kicker in fantasy football. the Very best kickers are only slightly more valuable then the very worst kickers, now a days at least.

This just isn't true. The last 5 season only 5 players drafted after pick #73 have been a top 10 RB.

Michael Turner - #153
3rd 2011
3rd 2010

Alfred Morris - #173
4th 2013
2nd 2012

Ahmad Bradshaw - # 250
9th 2010

Arian Foster - UDFA
6th 2012
5th 2011
1st 2010

Ryan Grant - UDFA
7th 2009

 

[Big-T]

Bolden can catch? News to me! All I saw him do last year was drop 3rd down after 3rd down when Vereen was on IR! Replacing him with Seastrunk (for example) would be an instant upgrade in all phases of the game.

The idea is to improve not stagnate and ignore areas that can be upgraded - RB can be upgraded via the draft.

 

[Deus Irae]

I can't be bothered Deus. You are just being silly.

I'm not being silly. Your comment

if you define RB as a luxury pick, then pretty much every position would be defined that way.

was ludicrous, and claiming that the team has its medium to long term starting safety in house is a triumph of hope over reality. What good is it for you to bring all sorts of data and information to the table if you're just going to ignore it when it comes time to actually thinking about what's going on with the team?