NFLN: Brady or Manning

[Deus Irae]

All you've proven is Brady is a more accurate 4 yd passer but his accuracy diminishes as his target radius expands...unless in your mind Thompkins and Dobson are slot WRs like WW.
You're "2013 to anyone not named Thompkins or Dobson = 60.4%" stat tells us this year Brady is hitting his slot guys DA/JE at a 60.4% rate....worse than last year by 7%....So in other words, Brady is less accurate all over the field.
A 47% completion rate to Gronk.....who gets blamed for that....Not Tommy the ageless wonder?

You don't seem to know the meaning of the word "proven".

 

[Ring 6]

Have you been watching Broncos games? Did you not see Peyton get sacked four times this past week? Manning has been anything but "no rushers anywhere near you".

He has in every other game.
Yes, I watch them which is why I don't need to look at stats.

According to Advanced NFL stats, the Broncos' line has surrendered 23 hits and 10 sacks vs. 28 and 17 for the Patriots. Which meshes pretty well with the eyeball test: Manning has had better protection and has been able to get rid of the ball quicker on account of his receivers, but he's getting hit plenty too.

Whether a QB gets hit after he delievers the ball without disruption to a wide open recevier is irrelevant to this discussion.

In fact, the Broncos' line hasn't really impressed me at all, especially since they lost Clady. Manning is making them look a lot better than they are.

He sits in the pocket with no pressure and throws to wide open receivers.
Not sure how a QB makes an OL look better unless his receivers are getting open for him before the pressure arrives.

He's responded by getting the ball out a lot faster than Brady's been able to.

Because he has open receivers.

And yes, that is largely because of his receivers,

ONLY not largely

but we've also seen Brady miss a lot of open receivers (and that includes Edelman, Amendola, and Gronk, so it's not just rookies).

Every QB misses receivers. Brady mostly is missing receivers because of pressure, hurrying due to it, poor routes, and a lack of condfidence they will run them correctly.
You are dismissing that with Edleman who caught about 30 passes the last 3 years, Gronk playing 1 game, and Amendola who was practicing half of camp and is new to the team. That speaks volumes about the weakness of your point.

Let's just be objective for one second and admit that, so far in 2013, Manning has clearly been better than Brady.

That sentence conflicts with itself.

 

[Ivan]

GFY Ivan......deal with the facts everyone once in a while. Brady's 34th in yds/attempt...pitiful. Four rookie QBs that are also new to their receiving corps are flashing better completion%'s. Sorry to muddy up your eternal Brady worship but the guy has been subpar most of the year. Take the rose colored glasses off and stop blaming everyone but Brady.

As for my "rose colored glasses," go ahead and try to find anyone who was more critical of the Patriots for their handling of the Welker negotiations, or of Bob Kraft for talking bullsh.t about those negotiations. I am critical of the Patriots when i think they deserve it and was really critical of MacDaniels for his playcalling last weekend, but for some reason i find it really difficult to generate a nonstop flow of negativity and misery towards a coach who may be the greatest of all time, a QB who is the greatest of all time, and a franchise that is in the discussion for one of the greatest of all time, and is the greatest of this era, and I find it nothing short of amazing that any fan of this team can be as negative as you, Patsfan 2 and a large number of others consistently are. Bottom line, if you can't be happy about the success of this team then it is really hard to imagine what it would take to make you happy, but easily explains why you never are.

 

[BradyFTW!]

He has in every other game.
Yes, I watch them which is why I don't need to look at stats.


Whether a QB gets hit after he delievers the ball without disruption to a wide open recevier is irrelevant to this discussion.


He sits in the pocket with no pressure and throws to wide open receivers.
Not sure how a QB makes an OL look better unless his receivers are getting open for him before the pressure arrives.



Because he has open receivers.


ONLY not largely



Every QB misses receivers. Brady mostly is missing receivers because of pressure, hurrying due to it, poor routes, and a lack of condfidence they will run them correctly.
You are dismissing that with Edleman who caught about 30 passes the last 3 years, Gronk playing 1 game, and Amendola who was practicing half of camp and is new to the team. That speaks volumes about the weakness of your point.


That sentence conflicts with itself.

So you don't have any actual evidence to support your point that Manning's been throwing to open receivers under no pressure. In that case, my point's made since I've already clearly shown that that's not the case. Meanwhile, you clearly don't have a point that you can actually support in any way, and I know better than to waste any more time trying to foster an actual debate with someone who's determined not to have one. You can lead a horse to water, etc.

I will, however, suggest that you develop a better understanding of what constitutes a QB hit, because if a defender hits the QB so long after the pass has been delivered teat the pressure doesn't even factor into the play, which you're claiming is the case in all of Manning's hits, that gets flagged as a personal foul every time.

 

[Deus Irae]

I posted this elsewhere, but it seems like it would fit in a bunch of threads today, and this seems to be one of them:

So when assessing the struggles of the team's offense, Mankins didn't dance around the issue. It's not all on the offensive line, but when the unit plays like it did in the third quarter of last Sunday's 30-27 loss to the Jets, it's simply not good enough.

"It's not all on us, but there is enough of it that is on us. The perfect example is the other night. We come out in the third quarter -- sack, sack -- a lot of that was on us. Mental assignments, guys just getting beat," Mankins said of the quarter in which the Jets took control of the game, erasing a 21-10 halftime deficit. "Whenever the line is not playing well, it's hard to score points."

Logan Mankins: Lapses hurting offensive line - ESPN

 

[BradyFTW!]

I posted this elsewhere, but it seems like it would fit in a bunch of threads today, and this seems to be one of them:



Logan Mankins: Lapses hurting offensive line - ESPN

If anyone's trying to claim that the Pats' line has been good, then they haven't been watching the games. If anyone's trying to claim that Manning's line has been enormously better, then they're also not watching the games.

 

[Deus Irae]

If anyone's trying to claim that the Pats' line has been good, then they haven't been watching the games. If anyone's trying to claim that Manning's line has been enormously better, then they're also not watching the games.

Perhaps, but you're ignoring the obvious with that statement, which is that Manning's protection issues have largely been when he's held the ball waiting on Thomas and Decker (When Decker is running deeper routes).

He's not under a whole lot of pressure when he's throwing to WWW, because WWW is breaking free much quicker, as usual. That's (the quick open, not specifically WWW) a major part of what's missing in NE.

And, for the record, many have been spending their time blaming Brady and McDaniels for the offensive woes, when they are the two least culpable.

 

[simpletruth]

These kind of debates are comical. It is just opinion. There is no way to factually state such things. Just put out all the "facts" one can to try and justify one's own opinion which in the end never needs any justification because it isn't as if they are going to change it and it is after all just that, AN OPINION.

My opinion has always been, it has been a pleasure to watch great talents play the game. They eventually go away and others never got a chance to see their great performances.

If you were to take 10 of the all time great QB's and redraft them, all 10 of them could go #1 in the draft depending on which team was picking first and what they were looking for.

 

[Ring 6]

So you don't have any actual evidence to support your point that Manning's been throwing to open receivers under no pressure.

Of course I do. I have the best evidence that exists: game film.

In that case, my point's made since I've already clearly shown that that's not the case.

You have not even murkily showed that. You showed the number of times he was sacked. He did not throw to receivers on those plays, so it is irrelevant to 'he has thrown to open receivers". Secondly he has been hit 23 times in 7 games, barely 3 times a game. This is out of 289 pass attempts. The 269 that he was not hit on are 13 times more than the sample you believe proves something.
You have 'proven' that you found a number that you think is meaningful, and it really isn't.

Meanwhile, you clearly don't have a point that you can actually support in any way, and I know better than to waste any more time trying to foster an actual debate with someone who's determined not to have one. You can lead a horse to water, etc.

My point is supported by the actual plays on the field. I'm sorry but, much like many things that require observation and analysis, you will not find a statistic that quantifies for you whether a QB has plenty of time on a pass play and has a wide open reciever.

I will, however, suggest that you develop a better understanding of what constitutes a QB hit, because if a defender hits the QB so long after the pass has been delivered teat the pressure doesn't even factor into the play, which you're claiming is the case in all of Manning's hits, that gets flagged as a personal foul every time.

Right back at you because if you think every QB hit is disruptive to the play you should watch more football and read fewer statstics.

 

[Ring 6]

If anyone's trying to claim that the Pats' line has been good, then they haven't been watching the games. If anyone's trying to claim that Manning's line has been enormously better, then they're also not watching the games.

That could one of the most inaccurate statements about what is going on on a football field this season that I have ever read.

 

[DaBronxPats14]

This Is Soooo Played OUT! Mediots get a real job.
With that said, I'll take Brady Every Day, Twice On Thurs. Three Times On Sunday And 4 Times On Monday EVERY TIME In Playoffs over ANYBODY.

 

[Harrisoned!]

Mannning's protection has been significantly worse the last two games, in particular that Colts game.

That said, he's getting better protection overall and FAR fewer "free rushers" at him. IMO part of that is on Brady - it's the QB's job to find blitzers and help the OL. We give credit to Tom when the OL is playing well due to his ability to read defenses pre-snap; clearly he's not doing quite as well as that this year. The lion's share of the blame still goes on the line though.

All that said, the Pats OL is nowhere near as bad as people are making them out to be. For the number of times the Pats have passed the ball this year, you are going to give up sacks. Based on sacks as a % of dropbacks, the Pats OL ranks 8th-best in the NFL. Typically they are top 3, so I think we have been a bit spoiled.

The Pats have also faced some really tough interior rushers lately, with Geno Atkins, Muhammed Wilkerson (2x), Gerald McCoy and Kyle Williams. Those are all top 10 pass-rushing tackles, the bugaboo of this line since Brady got here.

The good news is that going forward we don't face many of those guys. JJ Watt, Haloti Ngata and Kyle Williams again at the end of the year are really the only scary interior DL, though Star Lotuleilei is coming on strong as well for Carolina.

Bottom line, Brady is not playing as well as Manning this year. Manning has overthrown his target just 16 times all season. Brady had 10 overthrows in the last two games. Spin that however you want on the receivers, but he's not doing his job, which is to get the ball to the WR.

 

[TyronePoole]

I'm just gonna leave this here in the faint hope that somebody reads it and lets it sink in instead of clinging to what you wish were the case. It really isn't that close between these two. Written by a Pats fan.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013/10/the-myth-of-playoff-peyton.html?m=1

 

[Uncle Meat]

Brady would be on pace to break (his own) records right now if he were in Denver. That's the problem with this sort of evaluation.
.

Yeah, but you could also say that Peyton would have had higher numbers than Brady in 2007 had he been on the Patriots...that is, if you really wanted to. They would have been Peyton's records to break to begin with.

In Peyton's best statistical year, the Colts sat him on the bench when the game was in hand or played conservatively a bunch. Meanwhile, Brady was throwing deep TD passes when his team was up by a few TDs in 2007, or things like that. Never seen such consistently high point spreads in the NFL than with the 2007 Patriots. They were on a mission with something to prove that year.

 

[Uncle Rico]

Since this is about QBs and as someone else said is kinda played out and since what I have to say isn't thread worthy, I'll say it here.

I'm really missing the days of Brett Favre's media silence.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Yeah, but you could also say that Peyton would have had higher numbers than Brady in 2007 had he been on the Patriots...that is, if you really wanted to. They would have been Peyton's records to break to begin with.

Peyton was supported by the NFL's top-rated defense in 2007. How did that help him?

In Peyton's best statistical year, the Colts sat him on the bench when the game was in hand or played conservatively a bunch. Meanwhile, Brady was throwing deep TD passes when his team was up by a few TDs in 2007, or things like that.

I've seen the breakdowns of their seasons before. Peyton actually threw more 4th quarter touchdowns than Tom did. Except for the Redskins game, we routinely let off the gas when up over 2 TDs in the 4th quarter. The much talked-about Redskins stomping was precipitated by some sort of BB-Gibbs grudge, I understand. The whole perception of that season was tainted by stupid columns by Bill Simmons touting "Eff you" touchdowns that, except for the Redskins game, are a myth.

 

[Uncle Meat]

Peyton was supported by the NFL's top-rated defense in 2007. How did that help him?

Dunno what you are talking about here.

Peyton's best statistical year was in 2004. That year, he had the 29th ranked defense.

Brady's best statistical year was in 2007. That year, he had the 4th ranked defense.

When did Peyton have the NFL's top-rated defense? I guess you are just trying to randomly put down Peyton Manning. Tell me where his defense ranked in the 2007 postseason, even though that has nothing to do with this discussion.

I've seen the breakdowns of their seasons before. Peyton actually threw more 4th quarter touchdowns than Tom did.

Wrong. Peyton threw 7, and Tom threw 10. We are comparing 2004 to 2007. It being the 4th quarter means nothing without context, either.

Except for the Redskins game, we routinely let off the gas when up over 2 TDs in the 4th quarter. The much talked-about Redskins stomping was precipitated by some sort of BB-Gibbs grudge, I understand. The whole perception of that season was tainted by stupid columns by Bill Simmons touting "Eff you" touchdowns that, except for the Redskins game, are a myth.

You can't tell me with a straight face that the Patriots weren't running up the score quite a bit that year...not making a judgment call, but that sure as hell happened. They were sometimes freakin’ going for it on fourth down when the game was no longer in doubt, as well...extending drives and scoring even more points. Of course, the reply to that is "if you don't like it, then stop us," which makes a certain amount of sense. We aren't debating whether that's right or wrong, only recognizing that it happened.

Dude, I don't know if you really believe that the Patriots routinely "let off the gas" in 2007, but I can't imagine anyone would. They most definitely padded stats quite a bit by their approach to the game. THAT'S why people were accusing the Patriots were being unsportsmanlike that year...disagree or not, but that's the reason...bombs to Randy Moss and such.

But we aren’t debating that here. The fact remains that the 2007 Patriots were WAY more aggressive than the 2004 Colts, and that matters when we are talking about the TD record. The Patriots had an entirely different mentality than the Colts, and this resulted in more points.

In 2007, the Patriots scored 589 points. Their opponents scored 274 points. So the Pats had a total of 315 net points that year.

In 2004, the Colts scored 522 points. Their opponents scored 351 points. So the Cots had a total of 171 net points.

The Pats scored a net total of 144 more points in 2007 than the Colts did in 2004.

Brady has the TD record by ONE SINGLE TD, and the Colts sat out Manning for an entire game...they also sat him periodically at the end of games. You NEVER seen Brady come out of a game in 2007, let alone ease up. Also, Brady attempted 81 more passes than Manning...again, he had only ONE more TD.

That's why I say, all things being equal, Manning would have had the TD record right now if the 2004 Colts had the mindset of the 2007 Patriots.

 

[stevedogc]

When did Peyton have the NFL's top-rated defense? I guess you are just trying to randomly put down Peyton Manning. Tell me where his defense ranked in the 2007 postseason, even though that has nothing to do with this discussion. .

Manning Colts had the top ranked defense in 2007. The Colts D ranked 1st overall in the NFL in points allowed and 3rd overall in yards allowed.

Brady has the TD record by ONE SINGLE TD, and the Colts sat out Manning for an entire game...they also sat him periodically at the end of games. You NEVER seen Brady come out of a game in 2007, let alone ease up. Also, Brady attempted 81 more passes than Manning...again, he had only ONE more TD.

That's why I say, all things being equal, Manning would have had the TD record right now if the 2004 Colts had the mindset of the 2007 Patriots.

Thats factually wrong. Brady did in fact come out of games in 2007, several of them in fact. And the Pats did let of the gas in several games as well.

Week 1 vs. Jets. 6 passing plays in 4th qtr, 15 rushing plays
Week 2 vs. Chargers. 6 passing plays in 4th, 13 rushing plays
week 3 vs. Bills. no passing attempts by Pats in last 10 minutes of game
week 8 vs. Redskins. Brady played 1 series in 4th qtr.
Week 11 vs. Bills. Brady did not play in 4th qtr.

And all things are not equal between Mannings 2004 and Bradys 2007 season. If they were, then an opinion of "Manning would have had the TD record if" would be valid. But things were not equal. Different players, different teams, different schedules, etc. Manning played at least 9 games in a dome in 2004, Brady 1. Brady played a touger schedule against better defenses. Perhaps Brady would have had more then 50 tds if he played 10 games in a dome? Or weaker opponents? In the end, Brady had more passing TDs then Manning.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Wrong. Peyton threw 7, and Tom threw 10. We are comparing 2004 to 2007. It being the 4th quarter means nothing without context, either.

Tom Brady Career Passing Touchdown Log - Pro-Football-Reference.com is your friend.

Of the 10 4th quarter touchdowns that Brady had, 4 came while the Patriots were trailing in the game. Only 3 came with leads of >14 points. He also threw 32 of his 50 touchdowns in the first half, and 40 out of 50 before the 4th quarter. If you take the median score differential at the time that Brady threw his touchdowns, it was +7 (and the mean was +7.32).

In short, you're mis-remembering what happened. The vast majority of Brady's were either in competitive games or came early in the game.

The Pats scored a net total of 144 more points in 2007 than the Colts did in 2004.

Brady has the TD record by ONE SINGLE TD

Which is actually evidence against the point that you're trying to make. The Pats scored 144 more points, but Brady only threw for one more touchdown, which clearly shows that he was handing the ball off more and letting the RBs score in the red zone. He could have thrown for 55 easily if he'd dominated the ball on scoring opportunities like Manning did.

Also, Brady attempted 81 more passes than Manning...again, he had only ONE more TD.

See the above point. This just further demonstrates that he was performing more of his body of work outside of easy scoring opportunities, relative to Manning. It proves the opposite of what you're claiming, since it's nothing more than clear evidence that he was sustaining more drives and letting others score.

and the Colts sat out Manning for an entire game...they also sat him periodically at the end of games. You NEVER seen Brady come out of a game in 2007, let alone ease up.

Brady came out of 6 games in 2007, so that's just factually wrong.

 

[simpletruth]

I'm just gonna leave this here in the faint hope that somebody reads it and lets it sink in instead of clinging to what you wish were the case. It really isn't that close between these two. Written by a Pats fan.

Advanced NFL Stats: The Myth of Playoff Peyton

Uh, yeah it really isn't close, in the playoffs Brees is the best. I went to read this article to see what you meant and what it explained only to find that Brees stands head and shoulders above everyone else. Wow... I would not have guessed that.

I stand by what I said before, though, that if you take the top 10 qb's of all time and had them all be rookies again in the same year, each one of them could be the first pick depending on which team was doing the picking and what they were looking for and NO team would lose out no matter who they took.

As great as Brady and Peyton have been in their career, I still think Brees and Rodgers are the best QB's in the league right now. It doesn't really matter though. These arguments are so pointless.