The Record Is Secondary

[PatsFanSince74]

Getting a bye and HFA for the playoffs is an important goal, but for the 2012 Patriots I think that growth and development mean more. 3 losses in the books are already a strike against the shot at a bye and 2 against a #1 seed and HFA.

...

I don't doubt that failure in these situations now can create success in them later, by changing players and scheme.

That's the best and most reasoned analysis I have read.

The Giants have to be our role model this year (as hard as it is for me to spit those words out of my keyboard). What matters is how the Pats address the issues you outline, then how they make the Playoffs by hook or by crook and, most importantly, how they are playing in December. I wish I were as sanguine as you about the talent in the Secondary, but they clearly have all the talent they need on the other side of the ball; they just have to play that way in the last "eighth" of the game on a consistent basis.

The only thing I'd add is that, with this year's profile and what would be a playoff run without a Home game after the Wild Card Round, assuming they win the Division as I do assume, they are going to have to develop the attitude and toughness to win two tough games on the Road in a hostile environment; when Bruschi and Harrison and Law were anchoring the locker room, I never doubted that they had that. I hope that Wilfork and others can provide the same leadership now.

 

[SacPete1]

Like Patfanken, when I see a post by Andy Johnson I'm reading it knowing there is thought and insight.
Offensively, no worries there. Would have liked to have seen them stay agressive on their second to last posession. the game plan was pass heavy based on scheme (which I completely trust) so why run on first 2 downs when there wasn't much success during the day. Surely the Seahawks weren't playing for pass and there was still too much time on the clock. They strayed from what was successful moving the ball in the hopes of running off time. I don't think we'll see that again.
Defensively, technique on those long balls should be correctable but I worry that BB will go softer in coverage to compensate for what appears to be a fundamental issue. Plus the injuries could dictate this more than anything. If Ebner and Wilson are starting, I expect alot of bend but hope not to break and hold'm to field goals.

 

[mgteich]

And what good would that do? Have the patriots done well with the other high draft picks we've drafted.

I really hope that come next draft, BB spends AT LEAST 2 HIGH picks on CBs!

 

[PatsBoy12]

This is not a bad post at all, Andy. Most of your points are solid and make sense. I just hope that the improvement comes soon.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I really hope that come next draft, BB spends AT LEAST 2 HIGH picks on CBs!

They've spent high picks on CB's in the 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 drafts. High picks on S's in 2007, 2009, and 2012. Clearly the problem isn't a failure to use our resources, it's the fact that we've been awful at drafting DB's since after 2003 and at developing those players.

Our best bet might be through FA though the market for CB's makes it very tough. The only time we were able to sign half decent corners for reasonable prices were Poole and Bodden, but each proved to be injury prone and only got a season out of each, probably the reason why they were had so cheap. I truly don't know at this point how we'll ever fix these issues it's a major concern. Even if the front 7 starts getting to the QB, both Flacco and Seattle's QB proved that all you have to do sometimes is loft one deep and you'll either get a penalty or your WR will beat us, they are that bad and unreliable.

 

[Triumph]

They went 13-3 and all the way to the SB, which they win if Welker holds the ball. Those 'homers' were right.

If, could and would is the talk of losers.

Welker missed catching the ball because the Giants were playing pass defense and they forced Brady to make the catch more difficult.

The Pats pass defense however allowed Manning to go 70 yards in 4 plays on the game winning drive. Manning only had a 75% completion percentage.

The Homers were wrong.

 

[Ring 6]

If, could and would is the talk of losers.

Well, they lost.

Welker missed catching the ball because the Giants were playing pass defense and they forced Brady to make the catch more difficult.

Of course, but it is still the definition of how close they came. And the defense was roundly beaten on that play.

The Pats pass defense however allowed Manning to go 70 yards in 4 plays on the game winning drive. Manning only had a 75% completion percentage.

Yes they did.

The Homers were wrong.

Only if they guaranteed a SB win. Saying that yards allowed is an overrated statistic was of course, correct.

 

[Ring 6]

I think the loss of Hightower for the last few games has been a factor. Once he gets more comfortable in his role he can be used in a variety of ways including rushing the passer.

I am hoping he starts to get used as the LDE in sub, at least at times.

 

[Ring 6]

Correcting the issues that can be corrected (I just don't see the secondary as being correctable, but instead hide-able) are obviously important. So that's a no-brainer. But the three losses are not irrelevant, in spite of your insistance that they are. Every loss matters in this league matters. FWIW, Brady just echoed my sentiments in his interview with Jim Gray.

I said they were secondary, not irrelevant.
Yeah, Brady echoed your sentiments.
The point is improvement means more than the final record. You can only disagree with that if you are being argumentative for the sake of being so.

 

[Kontradiction]

I said they were secondary, not irrelevant.
Yeah, Brady echoed your sentiments.
The point is improvement means more than the final record. You can only disagree with that if you are being argumentative for the sake of being so.

No you didn't.

You are calling the record relevant because you are projecting forward based upon it.
That isn't really the point. The point is how the team develops from here is more important. If the issues are corrected, these 3 losses don't matter much. You are counter arguing that 3 losses matter more than how they play going forward because they may play like they did in the 3 loses.
It seems you didn't understand the premise.

If you're disagreeing with me that the record is absolutely relevant as well as important, then you're stating that the record is irrelevant. Improvement means a lot, yes. I never disagreed with you there. But your playoff chances and seeding are not determined by improvement. They're determined by wins and losses. Right now we have three of each.

 

[BradyManny]

Getting a bye and HFA for the playoffs is an important goal, but for the 2012 Patriots I think that growth and development mean more. 3 losses in the books are already a strike against the shot at a bye and 2 against a #1 seed and HFA.

Thank you Andy for a very reasonable and sound post amidst what is likely to be one of the least productive weeks on the board in quite some time.

I agree whole-heartedly with your premise. Losing 3 games is obviously extremely regrettable. I get that. Getting HFA or a bye is important, and is seemingly much more difficult now.

But the larger issue, the more important issue, is having a team that is capable of winning the Super Bowl by winning in January and February. This team has lost three games by a total of four points. Those losses came largely the result of its own boneheaded mistakes, critical failures in execution, horrible officiating, dumb luck and other factors. A lot of those things can be tidied up.

They are having issues in offensive execution situationally (which can be fixed) and they are having larger and more damning issues in talent in the secondary (which is harder to fix).

But the fact remains, in spite of all these issues, in spite of their record - I still see them no less likely to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl then I did several months ago. Belichick needs to take the long view this season. Win the AFCE, get into the dance, and see what happens. Be strong in January and February.

 

[Ring 6]

No you didn't.



If you're disagreeing with me that the record is absolutely relevant as well as important, then you're stating that the record is irrelevant. Improvement means a lot, yes. I never disagreed with you there. But your playoff chances and seeding are not determined by improvement. They're determined by wins and losses. Right now we have three of each.

Arguing for the sake of arguing.

Here is what I started the thread with

Getting a bye and HFA for the playoffs is an important goal, but for the 2012 Patriots I think that growth and development mean more. 3 losses in the books are already a strike against the shot at a bye and 2 against a #1 seed and HFA.

Finding a post where I describe why you are attaching relevance does not equal me calling it irrelevant.

Do you want to discuss or do you want to try to find words that you can use to misrepresent what was said in order to not admit your error?

 

[VJCPatriot]

Actually, I think you made a great pun without even intending it:
The Record Is Secondary

Because think about it, we can thank our record to our secondary. A lot of failing to close out wins has to do with the lack of performance by that secondary. So yes indeed, our record is Secondary. Unfortunately they tend to blow more games than they keep us in so if that keeps up, the Pats may not make the playoffs. That is unless the offense can carry this team to 3 score leads with less than 5 minutes to play. Because obviously a 13 point lead is NOT SAFE with our Secondary.

 

[Deus Irae]

Record is not secondary. It's the most important thing. Everything else falls after that. The problem is that this secondary is not better than last year, and teams now know it. This team has let up more 20+ plays than any other team in the NFL, by a large margin (Patriots 33, Redskins next with 26). 8.1 yards per pass is the 6th worst in the NFL.

Things are going to get uglier, week by week, until BB & Co. fix the problem.

 

[supafly]

Record is not secondary. It's the most important thing. Everything else falls after that. The problem is that this secondary is not better than last year, and teams now know it. This team has let up more 20+ plays than any other team in the NFL, by a large margin (Patriots 33, Redskins next with 26). 8.1 yards per pass is the 6th worst in the NFL.

Things are going to get uglier, week by week, until BB & Co. fix the problem.

Last week I defended the CB play, while speaking of my complete disgust for the play of the safeties. This week, while my thoughts on the safeties have grown even worse, I am also more on the fence regarding the play of the CB's too. While I still think they are an improvement this year, that isn't saying much, and the improvement is quite limited at best.

I do agree that the overall problem needs to be fixed--that should never be debated, but I also think that we have the potential to do that a little better than just thinking that it will get worse & worse as the weeks go by, due to having the Jets, the Rams, and a bye coming up.

Let's hope that gives them a little bit of a cushion to figure this out, if it can indeed be figured out.

I expected some mixing up of players/positions during the offseason if the secondary wasn't up to par, and I am wondering if we'll see that or not?

 

[Triumph]

Well, they lost.

Because of the pass defense. If youre expecting Brady to play perfect youll be disappointed. If this secondary does not improve, the Pats will have a good record AGAIN, make the playoffs AGAIN and likely advance until they face a QB who can exploit the NE secondary AGAIN.

Dennard and Dowling are the only hope. McCourty was hardly tested vs Seattle because Arrington was so bad. With Arrington benched, McCourty wears the target as NEs worst CB.

Of course, but it is still the definition of how close they came. And the defense was roundly beaten on that play.

No, the Giants werent.

If that was true Brady would have thrown the ball to the inside so Welker wouldnt have to turn 180 degrees. Phillips, the Giants Safety, was closing iN and unlike Chung, he would have been in the play and not 2 seconds behind chasing Welker.

Yes they did.

Pass defense

Only if they guaranteed a SB win. Saying that yards allowed is an overrated statistic was of course, correct.

No, wrong.

A porous secondary is just that. Theres no spinning that yards dont matter. Mannings 70 passing yards on the game winning drive mattered.

 

[Triumph]

Record is not secondary. It's the most important thing. Everything else falls after that. The problem is that this secondary is not better than last year, and teams now know it. This team has let up more 20+ plays than any other team in the NFL, by a large margin (Patriots 33, Redskins next with 26). 8.1 yards per pass is the 6th worst in the NFL.

Things are going to get uglier, week by week, until BB & Co. fix the problem.

The record does not matter.

Nobody cares that the Giants were 9 - 7 in the 2011 regular season.

 

[Deus Irae]

The record does not matter.

Nobody cares that the Giants were 9 - 7 in the 2011 regular season.

Record is, far and away, the most important thing of all. 3-12 doesn't make the playoffs, no matter how many hard losses a team has, and no matter how well it's playing in week 17.

 

[Ring 6]

Because of the pass defense. If youre expecting Brady to play perfect youll be disappointed. If this secondary does not improve, the Pats will have a good record AGAIN, make the playoffs AGAIN and likely advance until they face a QB who can exploit the NE secondary AGAIN.

Aside from this being so wrong, what does this have to do with this part of the discussion?

Dennard and Dowling are the only hope. McCourty was hardly tested vs Seattle because Arrington was so bad. With Arrington benched, McCourty wears the target as NEs worst CB.

McCourty was hardly tested because he covered his man, just like he has all season.

No, the Giants werent.

No coverage and no pressure is roundly beaten. Nothing the Giants did impacted that play at all.

If that was true Brady would have thrown the ball to the inside so Welker wouldnt have to turn 180 degrees. Phillips, the Giants Safety, was closing iN and unlike Chung, he would have been in the play and not 2 seconds behind chasing Welker.

Closing in? Come on. Brady threw to where the coverage scheme dictated. They didn't play the coverage scheme effectively, and were fortunate that a pass that is completed 99 times out of 100 wasn't in this case. None of that was because of good defense.

Pass defense

????????

No, wrong.

???????????

A porous secondary is just that. Theres no spinning that yards dont matter. Mannings 70 passing yards on the game winning drive mattered.

You are either purposely being obtuse or are just ignorant.
The number of passing yards allowed during the season led to a 13-3 record and ultimately a SB. The final drive of the SB is not influenced by how many yards were allowed during the regular season.
Your argument stinks and you are grasping at straws.

 

[Ring 6]

Record is, far and away, the most important thing of all. 3-12 doesn't make the playoffs, no matter how many hard losses a team has, and no matter how well it's playing in week 17.

Hold on. If you are referring to the OP, you are interpretting it incorrectly.
I am saying the w/l SO FAR is much less relevant than how the team grows and improves over the next 3 months.
What the record is TODAY is secondary to correcting the issues and improving the team by January.
3-3 now with those issues corrected is better than 6-0 now (which they are really 3 plays away from) and going to the post season without correcting those issues.
Of course winning and losing is what matters, but given that this team is what it is, if these problems don't get corrected it is meaningless what record they enter the post-seaosn with. If they do get corrected it is equally meaningless.