I absolutely agree with your sentiment to find the sweet spot...which Belichick will need to determine on the fly due to the different ways the draft could fall and the number of trades that could be in play.
However, I have the exact opposite opinion for the analysis that got you to that conclusion. The end of the 1st could be target rich for the Pats in their positions of interest at rush end and 3-4 DE. Also a good spot for trading down if someone wants to jump for an OT.
As for the depth of the draft, it looks to be pretty bad. Not 2007 bad but not too much better. Once you get to the middle of round 3, the players expected to make rookie impacts are few and far between. There are still some positions where you may find value, particularly at RB (always value late), WR, interior OL and CB. QB, OT, TE, DL, LB and S should be pretty much used up.
I'd be interested to hear your perspective since I don't usually find my analysis to be 180 degrees different from another experienced poster.
Well, I'd actually agree with the bulk of what you wrote here, so I don't think we're too far off. I should clarify - when I say depth, I should be far more specific. The sweet spot of depth I refer to is specifically in rounds 2-4. Maybe I should just re-phrase and use the word value.
I agree there's a big dropoff in this draft, though I might say it's after round 4. And frankly, I'm just not as acquainted with the mid to late stages of the draft this year, so I will even be fine deferring to your judgement and calling it round 3. I just like what we can get in the 40-100 range, pretty much, at a few positions of need.
But - as of now - we don't have any picks after round 4 - so I put that aside. And I'm starting to realize there isn't a huge need for Belichick go to and re-acquire picks in that range. Those guys wouldn't be making our team anyhow.
So we can rule rounds 4-7 out of a depth sweet spot.
But, IMO, the end of the round 1 is not likely to play out favorably for us either - outside of providing guys that other teams are likely to trade up for, as you say OT, or QB. The depth at 34DE you speak of, I don't see it lasting to 27 personally.
And the depth at rush end, I've given up trying to guess who the Pats have identified as good prospects at the position, so I almost take that out of my own equation. Even that position, I am not sure how I feel about these guys - or rather, how I feel Belichick feels about these guys.
However - I see a great value at CB, WR and RB in this draft in rounds 2-4. All positions we could use, though WR is pretty stacked at the moment, I have no problem with making room for a vet, or taking another pass at redshirting a high ceiling guy (Brian Quick).
I love what the draft offers at CB, both for nickel corners (which I think we need to treat almost as a starting position) and for a couple bigger CBs who can project to FS.
The bummer to me is that two of our bigger needs, easily, that you identify (OLB/34DE) seem difficult to address. I'm not optimistic that any 34DEs last to us. But we can only take what the draft gives us.
