Matt Williamson: Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Williams

[SeymourTrophies]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

Meanwhile....Aquaman...

Wilfork's cap number never reaches higher than 8 point freaking one million. He got a signing bonus of 18 mil, and his bonuses amount to about 7 while his base slowly increases. So, there is hope that our crew is sharp enough to get it done with a guy they absolutely love. We will find out how in love the suits are with Williams, or any of the other FA's, in mid to late March. The Adalius Thomas deal was actually a well done deal where the player got his money without killing the cap, not that he was the kind of talent that Williams is.

 

[Wilfork#75]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

Since we only have one player comparable to Mario Williams, here's Peppers' cap hits per year:

2010-34 mil (base 20)
2011-13.8 (base 990k)
2012-11.3 (base 8.9)
2013-15.3 (12.9)
2014-16.3 (13.9)
2015-18.8 (16.5)

The signing bonus was 6.5, and there was another bonus in 2010 that make that cap hit skyrocket, and Peppers' base salary was 990,000 in 2011 with another 10+ mil bonus.

Throw some more money into a signing bonus, and once the cap number goes sky high is when the rest of that money comes around. There's no reason we can't keep the two TE's and stay competitive. Brady's number is astronomical for the next two years IIRC as well.

If he want's Peppers money then he won't get it here. If he will settle for DeMarcus Ware or Tamba Hali money, there is no reason we can't fit him under the cap. I think one thing to remember is he has already made over $50mil in his career and played in 0 playoff games. I think that could impact his decision.

 

[ivanvamp]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

He would be nice to have, but they don't NEED him. They can use that load of cap money many different ways, quite a few of which would make the overall team better than one player would.

All season long people were bemoaning the fact that they have some glaring holes on defense - one of which was a dominant player on the line (to go along with Vince). Mario Williams is one of the very best defensive ends in football. In his previous 4 seasons (not counting this one, where injuries limited him to 5 games), he had 43.5 sacks (about 11 per season). The guy is a monster.

So ok, I guess the Pats don't "need" him. But they do need a couple of difference-makers on defense. This guy is available. The Pats can afford him. His presence alone changes the entire defense.

 

[IllegalContact]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

on a more genera note regarding this issue, a signing such as this makes sense simply because we've seen enough DB's rotate through this town that certainly makes you wonder if DB is even the problem. if the pats produce a top pass rush, maybe all of the DB's the pats have will start looking like probowlers.

 

[ivanvamp]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

on a more genera note regarding this issue, a signing such as this makes sense simply because we've seen enough DB's rotate through this town that certainly makes you wonder if DB is even the problem. if the pats produce a top pass rush, maybe all of the DB's the pats have will start looking like probowlers.

I am convinced this is true for NYG defensive backs. I think that they are nothing special. When their pass rush isn't there, they get roasted just like anyone else.

The average NFL sack takes place between 2.8 and 2.9 seconds after the snap. If a QB has an extra second to throw, that's a LOT. To make the math easy, let's say the average NFL WR has a 4.5 40 yard dash time. That means, roughly, that they run about 9 yards in 1 second. With cutting, etc., say it's more like 6-7 yards in a second. If you give a receiver an additional second to work with, the odds of him getting separation are considerable. It's just very hard to stay with a receiver who knows where he's going for 4 seconds.

If the defense constantly makes the opposing QB get rid of the ball in less than 3 seconds instead of 4, that's a lot less ground the DBs need to cover. They can then tighten up and not worry as much about getting burned deep.

So yes, a consistently good pass rush makes the DBs job a lot easier. Since it's easier in that scenario, a below-average DB can look average, an average DB can look pretty good, and a pretty good DB can look like a pro bowler.

 

[JoeShmoe]

I think BB knows we're close. He also knows GB, NO, Hou, Bal, NYG are the ones we have to beat to win

To do that we likely need a real playmaker on D and O. A DE/OLB and an X/Y receiver. With Brady only having a few seasons left, and cap space/draft picks to play with well see if he and the Krafts think now is the time to make this happen

 

[IllegalContact]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

I am convinced this is true for NYG defensive backs. I think that they are nothing special. When their pass rush isn't there, they get roasted just like anyone else.

The average NFL sack takes place between 2.8 and 2.9 seconds after the snap. If a QB has an extra second to throw, that's a LOT. To make the math easy, let's say the average NFL WR has a 4.5 40 yard dash time. That means, roughly, that they run about 9 yards in 1 second. With cutting, etc., say it's more like 6-7 yards in a second. If you give a receiver an additional second to work with, the odds of him getting separation are considerable. It's just very hard to stay with a receiver who knows where he's going for 4 seconds.

If the defense constantly makes the opposing QB get rid of the ball in less than 3 seconds instead of 4, that's a lot less ground the DBs need to cover. They can then tighten up and not worry as much about getting burned deep.

So yes, a consistently good pass rush makes the DBs job a lot easier. Since it's easier in that scenario, a below-average DB can look average, an average DB can look pretty good, and a pretty good DB can look like a pro bowler.

I'm not saying that it needs to be williams, but c'mon........we've watched this team for several years now, not being able to apply pressure at the most critical of times. one just needs to go back to 2004 against the eagles to see wht pressure on a QB can do. if you hit a QB enough times, it won't matter who you have back there chasing the WR's

 

[IllegalContact]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

I think there is a lost point in here.....people talk about 3rd down percentages as some kind of barometer of successfully defending the pass. what does not show up in statistics is what happens on 1st and 2nd down.

look at it this way, while the pats defense game up more 1st downs than anyone last year, the pats defense was actually subjected to the 6th fewest 3rd down situations, meaning that the pats gave up a crapload of 1st downs on 1st and 2nd down. this tells me that the pats real problem with pass defense is on 1st and 2nd down (they have been at least average against the run on those downs)

bottom line is recognition by the front 7 coupled with an inability to react on the recognition. the pats really need to get much much more athletic and physical up front. physically inferior players who have a keen understanding of the game are not going to help if there aren't a fair number of animals out tehre at the same time

 

[Big-T]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

Signing Williams would only really be beneficial if Anderson and/or Carter are re-signed too because it's all well and good having one elite pass rusher commanding double teams, but what use is that if the other DE (assuming a 4-3 look here) can't beat his man?

Having all 3 of the players named would create matchup nightmares though, in theory you could line up a 4 man line with all 3 of them + Wilfork in a similar way the Giants do when they have 4 defensive ends on at a time, if you came out on a 3rd & 11 for example and you had: Williams-Carter-Wilfork-Anderson on your defensive line, the QB isn't going to get much time to make that first down pass.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

Your numbers are a little off, those are cap hits and Ellis' was $4M. So that's 3 players for $8.2M. The problem is Mario will cost a lot more - Peppers deal averages $14M - and if he's injured as he was for most of last season in Houston, then what?? The Pats appear to be about $14M under the anticipated cap including tagging Welker...and whether they do or don't tag him they will end up spending that $9M at least on WR upgrades/replacement. So you get Mario and wiggle in the draftees and that's it? Who needs a Center or another guard or a veteran backup QB or NT or whatever those 17 FA we'd be losing provided...

The link says it was 5 million, Miquel says 4 but his last update was Sept 5 either way it is only a million dollar difference. Williams may cost more but most of his 2012 dollars will come from a signing bonus. And if he is injured than he would contribute the same amount as Wright, Haynesworth, Ellis, Brace and Pryor did this year which is next to nothing.

Ocho's 4 million, Branch's 2 million and Welker's 4 million from 2011 can be appied to 2012 WR's. Again if Welker is signed to a new contract, his cap # will be spread over the length of the contract.

Wilfork75's answer to your post addressed the situation well. Your contention that if they signed Williams they could barely sign the draft picks and nothing else isn't even close to being accurate.

 

[ivanvamp]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

I think there is a lost point in here.....people talk about 3rd down percentages as some kind of barometer of successfully defending the pass. what does not show up in statistics is what happens on 1st and 2nd down.

look at it this way, while the pats defense game up more 1st downs than anyone last year, the pats defense was actually subjected to the 6th fewest 3rd down situations, meaning that the pats gave up a crapload of 1st downs on 1st and 2nd down. this tells me that the pats real problem with pass defense is on 1st and 2nd down (they have been at least average against the run on those downs)

bottom line is recognition by the front 7 coupled with an inability to react on the recognition. the pats really need to get much much more athletic and physical up front. physically inferior players who have a keen understanding of the game are not going to help if there aren't a fair number of animals out tehre at the same time

Yep. Good point. I've already mentioned this (as have a few others), but the salary cap is going to increase a TON in 2014. The Pats (like other teams) will have a lot more room starting then. So the question is: can they afford Williams for 2012 and 2013? I think the answer is quite possibly yes.

Maybe what they do is something along these lines: have his contract go up such that the 2014, 2015, and 2016 years are as high as they can go, given the rules governing how much you can increase a contract from year to year.

But what about 2012 and 2013, when the cap is lower?

I think they'll have about $30 million to play with. Figure $8 million for rookies and re-signing veterans. That leaves $22 million.

Give Welker a 4-year, $32 million deal. That's $8 million a year. Then you have $14 million left. Right now, the base salaries for the top 5 NFL DEs are:

Freeney: $14,035,000
Dumervil: $14,000,000
J.Allen: $11,619,850
Hali: $11,250,000
Peppers: $8,900,000

Williams is great, but he's not Jared Allen, in terms of sack production. I think you could sign a deal where Williams gets Allen money - say $12 million a year - for the first two years, but then it escalates to $15.6 million in 2014, etc.

It still leaves a couple of million to add other helpful pieces. And then you go nuts in the draft as well.

In other words, they can do it. I don't think they can re-sign Welker, and then add both Williams and a top-shelf WR. But if they want Williams, they can do it.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

Reiss has apparently confirmed that the Pats will be participants in the sweepstakes. They were also apparently scouting DE/OLB's real hard at the combine. That is more than likely just a ploy to bait everyone into looking there while we draft 5 CB's.

 

[Rob0729]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

Reiss has apparently confirmed that the Pats will be participants in the sweepstakes. They were also apparently scouting DE/OLB's real hard at the combine. That is more than likely just a ploy to bait everyone into looking there while we draft 5 CB's.

I wouldn't be surprised since they were in the Peppers sweepstakes too. But just like Peppers, they might be unwilling to go as high as the biggest bidders. Two big difference this time around is that Williams is younger and has proven he can play in both the 4-3 and 3-4. That said, that doesn't mean the Pats will be willing to pay what it takes to get him.

 

[Wilfork#75]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

Yep. Good point. I've already mentioned this (as have a few others), but the salary cap is going to increase a TON in 2014. The Pats (like other teams) will have a lot more room starting then. So the question is: can they afford Williams for 2012 and 2013? I think the answer is quite possibly yes.

Maybe what they do is something along these lines: have his contract go up such that the 2014, 2015, and 2016 years are as high as they can go, given the rules governing how much you can increase a contract from year to year.

But what about 2012 and 2013, when the cap is lower?

I think they'll have about $30 million to play with. Figure $8 million for rookies and re-signing veterans. That leaves $22 million.

Give Welker a 4-year, $32 million deal. That's $8 million a year. Then you have $14 million left. Right now, the base salaries for the top 5 NFL DEs are:

Freeney: $14,035,000
Dumervil: $14,000,000
J.Allen: $11,619,850
Hali: $11,250,000
Peppers: $8,900,000

Williams is great, but he's not Jared Allen, in terms of sack production. I think you could sign a deal where Williams gets Allen money - say $12 million a year - for the first two years, but then it escalates to $15.6 million in 2014, etc.

It still leaves a couple of million to add other helpful pieces. And then you go nuts in the draft as well.

In other words, they can do it. I don't think they can re-sign Welker, and then add both Williams and a top-shelf WR. But if they want Williams, they can do it.

I may be wrong, but I believe the limit on salary increase from year to year is 30% on base salary only. The way to get around that would be to add roster bonuses in the later years, especially in 2014. Here is a hypothetical contract breakdown I came up with a few weeks ago:

7yrs $80mil ($39.4mil guaranteed, $21mil signing bonus)

Year-Base Salary-Prorated Signing Bonus-Roster Bonus-Cap Value

2012 3,000,000 - 3,000,000 - 0 - 6,000,000
2013 3,900,000 - 3,000,000 - 0 - 6,900,000
2014 5,000,000 - 3,000,000 - 3,000,000 - 11,000,000
2015 6,500,000 - 3,000,000 - 1,000,000 - 10,500,000
2016 8,450,000 - 3,000,000 - 1,000,000 - 12,450,000
2017 10,950,000 - 3,000,000 - 1,000,000 - 14,950,000
2018 14,250,000 - 3,000,000 - 1,000,000 - 18,250,000

(sorry for the poor formatting)

With this type of contract you fully guarantee the first 4 years because you can't cut him then anyway, so you get most of the guaranteed money out of the way. The first two years are minimal cap hits, with a big jump in 2014 with the expected cap increase. While it then jumps again in 2016 and 2017 when Mankins and possibly Brady's contracts are over. There is little chance he would see any of the non-guaranteed money in 2018 because of the 18.25mil cap hit. Cutting him then would save over $15mil, and at that stage he will be 33.

If he is willing to sign this kind of contract, that would still leave a ton of room for upgrades this season, and it shouldn't handcuff us next season. And with it highly unlikely that he would see the money in 2018, if he wanted to say he signed the biggest defensive contract in NFL history, even though he knows he would never actually make it all, you could just add a big roster bonus in 2018. You could easily make it a 7 year $120mil contract for his ego, when in reality its more likely a 6 yr $64.8mil contract.

 

[IllegalContact]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

I wouldn't be surprised since they were in the Peppers sweepstakes too. But just like Peppers, they might be unwilling to go as high as the biggest bidders. Two big difference this time around is that Williams is younger and has proven he can play in both the 4-3 and 3-4. That said, that doesn't mean the Pats will be willing to pay what it takes to get him.

driving up the cost for another team to get a guy like this is one of the GM's jobs

 

[Rob0729]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

driving up the cost for another team to get a guy like this is one of the GM's jobs

Why would Belichick care that the Bears overpaid for Peppers? What would the point be for the Pats to drive up Peppers' price so a team in another conference, that the Pats play once every four years unless both make it to the Super Bowl, could sign him for more than what they originally intended to do? In fact, driving up the price on Peppers only hurts the Pats with Williams or any other top d-lineman if they are interested in because it drove up the market for all d-lineman.

If Belichick is just jumping into the negotiations to drive up the price, he is an idiot. Unless it is a division rival, there is zero upside to do so. Even then, the impact of on the market for future deals will be negatively impacted that any benefits for making a division rival overpay may be negated by the fact that the Pats would have to pay more to retain their own free agents or go after a player they really desire.

I totally disagree that it is one of the GM's jobs to drive up the price for free agents they have no intention to sign. In fact, it goes against what their job should be.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

I think you can sign Williams and still have plenty of room to make additional upgrades at other positions. Obviously Welker being franchised instead of signing a long term deal will make things more difficult, but its still doable. The key for Williams will be guaranteed money. If we can get him for something like 7yrs with $40mil guaranteed, with a $21mil signing bonus, he could easily be fit under the cap. It would likely need to be back-loaded, and I know some people don't want to do that because of the future Gronk contract, but I don't think it will be an issue. We could eaily structure a contract with minimal cap impact for the first 2 years ($6-7mil per for 2011/12) and growing in 2014 with the expected cap increase. Now he would probably never see any of the non-guaranteed money in the final year because of a large cap hit, but I would happily take Super Mario for 6 years.

We will also likely have about $12mil in dead cap coming off the books next offseason, as well as another $10.25mil from Light and Waters if they play and retire after 2012. We are currently around $103mil for the top 51. The key is we are already at 51, so a large proportion of rookie salaries will be cancelled out by the roster spots of players already on the roster. So instead of $5-6 added for rookies, its probably only $1-2mil depending on trading picks. I don't think the cap will impact the Pats decision to go after Williams, I think it will purely come down to does BB think he is worth the contract.

We don't do 7 year deals. Even for the QB. Mankins got 6, Wilfork got 5. You can only amortize signing bonus for 5. And even if we use option bonus if it's guaranteed it starts amortizing immediately as Manning's did even before it was paid. If his deal were to average $14M he isn't going to allow for much backloading that only insures he gets cut before the final season. And you can't do what Chicago did with Peppers because there is no uncapped season to absorb $20M in cap hit off the top. And even with that his cap hit this season is $12M and will rise for the remainder of the deal. He's going to want at least half of his deal guaranteed, that's the going rate and at his rate that's going to be $40M+. If he takes less in average, he will want more guaranteed. Part of that will be signing bonus, and it's hard to top $20M here because you asked Brady and others to remain at or below that line.

They can absolutely fit Mario under the cap if they choose to. Same way the JETS do it. The question will remain at what cost, and not just in contract but in roster cuts elsewhere and in quality depth and morgaging the future. Next year and the year after we will have the young TE's to deal with just for openers and they will likely be looking for deals in the $7-8M per range. Then there will be the OT's as well as Chung and Spikes. Which one or more of them do you not want to retain or replace so we can have a $12-14M DE on the roster? The cap will go up double digits in 2014, but so will contract demands for existing and future players. There is more than one way a team can come up just a little short of winning it all.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

I may be wrong, but I believe the limit on salary increase from year to year is 30% on base salary only. The way to get around that would be to add roster bonuses in the later years, especially in 2014. Here is a hypothetical contract breakdown I came up with a few weeks ago:

7yrs $80mil ($39.4mil guaranteed, $21mil signing bonus)

Year-Base Salary-Prorated Signing Bonus-Roster Bonus-Cap Value

2012 3,000,000 - 3,000,000 - 0 - 6,000,000
2013 3,900,000 - 3,000,000 - 0 - 6,900,000
2014 5,000,000 - 3,000,000 - 3,000,000 - 11,000,000
2015 6,500,000 - 3,000,000 - 1,000,000 - 10,500,000
2016 8,450,000 - 3,000,000 - 1,000,000 - 12,450,000
2017 10,950,000 - 3,000,000 - 1,000,000 - 14,950,000
2018 14,250,000 - 3,000,000 - 1,000,000 - 18,250,000

(sorry for the poor formatting)

With this type of contract you fully guarantee the first 4 years because you can't cut him then anyway, so you get most of the guaranteed money out of the way. The first two years are minimal cap hits, with a big jump in 2014 with the expected cap increase. While it then jumps again in 2016 and 2017 when Mankins and possibly Brady's contracts are over. There is little chance he would see any of the non-guaranteed money in 2018 because of the 18.25mil cap hit. Cutting him then would save over $15mil, and at that stage he will be 33.

If he is willing to sign this kind of contract, that would still leave a ton of room for upgrades this season, and it shouldn't handcuff us next season. And with it highly unlikely that he would see the money in 2018, if he wanted to say he signed the biggest defensive contract in NFL history, even though he knows he would never actually make it all, you could just add a big roster bonus in 2018. You could easily make it a 7 year $120mil contract for his ego, when in reality its more likely a 6 yr $64.8mil contract.

You can't, and if he agreed to it he'd be too stupid to play in this system.

 

[Rob0729]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

One thing with Williams or any marquee free agent they might be interested in. The Pats can structure any deal for the majority of the cap dollars to hit in 2014 and beyond. That is when the cap is expected to go up my as much as 30-40%.

The Jets were reportedly flirting with pushing most of the money to 2014 with Nmamdi Asoughma if they signed him. Granted they made too many stupid short term restructurings to put themselves in position to try to make a deal with him.

If the Pats truly want him, they can make it work so his salary will not seriously hurt the cap the next two season where the cap is expected to stay stagnant. He shouldn't make it so the Pats are hamstrung by the cap. It still doesn't mean he won't get too expensive to consider.

 

[jays52]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

It's purely speculative, but I really don't see Williams going after Peppers type money. I've done a ton of research about the guy from the local papers and from stuff written before the draft. He's often described as a quiet but respected leader, a football nerd, very subdued in his off-field demeanor, and has no propensity for shiny stuff. From everything written about him he's a self described country boy who likes to fill his spare time collecting hunting guns and playing with his RC cars. Not exactly a tremendously expensive pair of hobbies. The guy already got a fifty million dollar deal and he's gone on record as saying that he's already wealthy beyond his wildest dreams. He's said that where he lands will come down to schematic diversity and coaching not contract. Obviously he deserves to and will be highly compensated, but I don't think an earth shattering deal is as important to him as a chance to play under a great coach in a creative scheme. I think it will take somewhere between 7 and 9 AAV to get him. That's not a boatload of money and is certainly not cost prohibitive.