Matt Williamson: Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Williams

[billdog3484]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

Ahh, very interesting. I'm curious which one you consider to be an A-level player, Vince or Mayo?

it sure aint mayo

 

[bucky]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

Delusional isn't strong at all in relation to what you seem to need to believe he will do. $7-9M is insulting money for a DE of his caliber. If you said you thought he'd take $10-12M for the right situation I'd still think your dreaming but I wouldn't have used the term delusional. That post was.

Peppers' contract was for 6/84, but looking a little closer you would find a couple of things:

1) Peppers will average $13.5 mil/yr over the first 3 years. After that, the Bears can take it on a year to year basis, paying him only if he's still an all-pro. So in essence, it's a 3 year, $40.5 mil deal.
2) The Bears had the option to drop Peppers after 1 year and $20 mil. While not great, it still provides some mitigation of risk if he doesn't work out with the new team.
3) Peppers had better career stats and had missed only 6 games in 8 years to that point. So it's reasonable to assume he's worth more than Williams on a per-year basis.
4) Williams is 2 years younger than Peppers. So Williams may be able to get more years and similar guaranteed money, but less annual average.
5) Peppers was out to get the biggest possible contract he could.

Overall, it's reasonable to think that Williams may be worth less on the open market than the $13.5 Peppers got. If you also factor in his statement that money is not the most important consideration for his decision, I would say that $10-$12 mil is a very realistic possibility.

 

[IllegalContact]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

Ahh, very interesting. I'm curious which one you consider to be an A-level player, Vince or Mayo?

even so......2 A level players. it takes more than that. Spikes may be there next year. not sure if you can count on anyone else taking the next step.

again, williams may not be THE answer, but the defense is chock full of questions. even the scheme is starting to look like a dinosaur in the pass-happy NFL.

the resources are simply not committed to the defense to be able to expect it to be more than mediocre, even with good coaching.

even though people love to talk of value, and how BB creates it or uses it, the defense was loaded with talent and high price with early draft picks (warren,wilfork,seymour, mcginest, law) and free agents that brought some value, but weren't all that cheap (washington, phifer, harrison, vrabel, colvin, poole)....you don't have much of either now.......you have 3 first round picks on the entire starting defense.

The problem with the defense is that both money wise and draft pick wise, the resources have all gone to building a nice shell around the justification to pay brady.

look at it this way......what was being spent on the offense while the pats were winning SB's? brady was a minimum salary guy for the first one, had a 5.33M cap hit in '03 and 7.7M in '04. beyond that, the offensive rosters of the SB winning teams had daniel graham as its highest draft pick, and corey dillon as its priciest acquisition. The OL was cheap.

what we have now are resources that are prioritized on the offense. using money and draft picks that can no longer be used on defense.

the defense used to be good because just as much as anything, it was supposed to be good through superior talent.

the defensive roster now is like pissing in the wind

if this team spent its resources on the defense, it wouldn't NEED the best QB in the NFL

 

[JackBauer]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

it sure aint mayo

Why not....?

 

[malenurse2010]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

Why not....?

He's a very good player, not a great one. His head was facing the stands on the biggest play of his football career, instead of making a play on the slant. He needs to step up his game in big moments.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

it sure aint mayo

Mayo's an "A" level player, as is Wilfork.

Spikes seems on his way to being an "A" level run stopper

McCourty seemed to be on his way to being an "A" level player as a rookie. He was largely a scrub last year, though, so this next season should tell us the tale.

 

[leehanu]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

One interesting thing to consider in case of Williams is the Injury. I think Peppers didn't miss any games because of injury when he bacame a free-agent. Williams is coming back from a serious injury. So, even though he is 2 years younger than Peppers when he became a free-agent Williams will get little lower salary than Peppers.

 

[ivanvamp]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

He's a very good player, not a great one. His head was facing the stands on the biggest play of his football career, instead of making a play on the slant. He needs to step up his game in big moments.

I like Mayo a lot...think he's terrific. But I have no idea what he did on that play. He knew where the ball was going. He played it perfectly. And then......wasn't looking for the ball...like, at all.

Eli Manning TD pass to Victor Cruz "Super Bowl" - YouTube

Collinsworth is explaining that Mayo did *exactly* what he was supposed to do, according to the design of how they were going to defend that. So he did everything right except, you know, actually pay attention to the ball. It could have been the easiest INT of his career....if he was watching, it would have been right into his hands.

Ugh. :bricks:

 

[JackBauer]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

He's a very good player, not a great one. His head was facing the stands on the biggest play of his football career, instead of making a play on the slant. He needs to step up his game in big moments.

I don't disagree with your last sentence, but this is the type of logic that underpins the argument that Wes Welker has butterfingers.

I would say that there are two "A" players on the defense: Wilfork and Mayo.

 

[JMarr]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

Curran:

And why might the Patriots not be down with the idea of Mario Williams?

• Since the Patriots got burned with the Adalius Thomas signing they've been skittish about going in deep for free agents. Can't imagine Leigh Bodden's performance after getting paid makes them that much more anxious either.
  
• Williams has been hurt each of the past two seasons playing a total of 18 games. Given he will command a contract approaching the most lucrative in NFL history, is that something the Patriots want to risk?
  
• A big play for Williams in which they outbid everyone goes against their principals. Again, back to AD. The Patriots went off the board in signing him in 2007 and it worked out as poorly as it possibly could. Unless Williams is interested in signing for less, it's hard to imagine the Patriots being "really involved" as Williamson predicted.

1. They would obviously give him a thorough physical before committing big bucks. (Duh). He played 16 games his first four seasons and being dinged up the last two seasons in itself doesn't qualify as being"injury prone."

2. The AdT saga should do absolutely nothing to deter Belichick from pursuing a guy like Williams, other than to be cautious about his mental makeup. But by all accounts, Williams sounds like the anti-Adalius--unselfish, hard worker, appreciative of great coaching and of a well-run organization. A guy like Belichick doesn't turtle up just because some past big FA signings haven't worked out.

3. Every year we have pipedream threads like this coveting potential beast FA's who would be "perfect in our system." Dansby, JTaylor, Suggs, Peppers, Reed, Asamough, etc. I'm not holding my breath, but I think that Williams makes the most sense for us as anyone has in a long time. If BB can find another Colvin, Vrabel, or McGinest for less money, then fine. If not, I say sign the beast.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

Peppers' contract was for 6/84, but looking a little closer you would find a couple of things: 1) Peppers will average $13.5 mil/yr over the first 3 years. After that, the Bears can take it on a year to year basis, paying him only if he's still an all-pro. So in essence, it's a 3 year, $40.5 mil deal. 2) The Bears had the option to drop Peppers after 1 year and $20 mil. While not great, it still provides some mitigation of risk if he doesn't work out with the new team. 3) Peppers had better career stats and had missed only 6 games in 8 years to that point. So it's reasonable to assume he's worth more than Williams on a per-year basis. 4) Williams is 2 years younger than Peppers. So Williams may be able to get more years and similar guaranteed money, but less annual average. 5) Peppers was out to get the biggest possible contract he could. Overall, it's reasonable to think that Williams may be worth less on the open market than the $13.5 Peppers got. If you also factor in his statement that money is not the most important consideration for his decision, I would say that $10-$12 mil is a very realistic possibility.

You might want to look a little closer. In addition to all that, he got $7.5M in makeable incentives for sacks, pro bowls and DPOY that can raise his contract value to $91.5M. The only form of mitigation they got was taking a $20M cap hit in the uncapped year. No team can do that now. The deal averages $14M and can increase by up to $1.5M per in cap hit in incentives in each of the last 5 years. Peppers also had a reputation for taking plays off. I don't believe Mario has that. Why on earth would a younger player get a lower average? And we aren't going to give anyone more than 6 years - and if we gave him more guaranteed money (Peppers actually has $42M guaranteed including $1.8M of his 2013 salary) there is no way to mitigate that deal until the final season. And if he got injured again in the first 2-3 years we'd be screwed.

 

[Dragda]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

Honestly, unless a rumor/story is mentioned by someone I respect (like Reiss), I'm going to be pretty hesitant to believe it. The Pats are just so tight-lipped. Remember when they signed Rodney Harrison?

Rodney Harrison was seconds away from signing his name on a contract with the Oakland Raiders when he got the last second call from his agent to abort.

 

[Coach42]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

First of all I agree that D only has two "A" level defenders in Mayo and Wilfork but I would argue their are some "A" candidates on the defense, I think they just need a bit more seasoning. I would list first and foremost McCourty, Chung, and Spikes and list Dowling and Fletcher as "projects". Adding a player like Mario Williams would only help make these players better. I'm kind of surprised that Williams being a free agent has gotten as little hype as it has. For me, after Manning and Brees (I understand Brees isn't going anywhere) Williams is the most dominate available player in the last couple of years. Personally I think we should be falling all over ourselves to sign this guy. This is the kind of player you say scheme be damned, we'll build the scheme around you. Mario Williams is a FRANCHISE type talent in his PRIME. I don't know why more people aren't falling all over themselves to sign this guy. This is a Reggie White to the Packers type opportunity and I hope BB jumps all over it.

 

[bucky]

Re: Matt Williamson: The Pats will be "really involved" in trying to get Mario Willi

You might want to look a little closer. In addition to all that, he got $7.5M in makeable incentives for sacks, pro bowls and DPOY that can raise his contract value to $91.5M. The only form of mitigation they got was taking a $20M cap hit in the uncapped year. No team can do that now. The deal averages $14M and can increase by up to $1.5M per in cap hit in incentives in each of the last 5 years. Peppers also had a reputation for taking plays off. I don't believe Mario has that. Why on earth would a younger player get a lower average? And we aren't going to give anyone more than 6 years - and if we gave him more guaranteed money (Peppers actually has $42M guaranteed including $1.8M of his 2013 salary) there is no way to mitigate that deal until the final season. And if he got injured again in the first 2-3 years we'd be screwed.

I took a very close look, actually. As you know, there is a difference between the deal announced to the media, and the reality of the deal. I.E. Albert Haynesworth's contract wasn't really a $100 million contract. So I'm pointing out the real value of that deal.

And I'll just repeat, the REAL MONEY deal is for 3 years@ $13.5. If you want to throw in the $1.8 mil guarantee for 2013, that's fine. If the Bears feel Peppers is worth $13 mil in 2013, they can keep him. That'll make it a 4 year deal @ just under $13.5. If not, they get rid of him and pay $1.8 mil - a cap hit that's not different from many other players who are cut due to underperforming their contract (e.g. Ocho). Peppers will never see the last year of this deal - which pays him $16.5 mil and brings up the perceived value of the contract to $14/year. And he most likely will not see the 5th year of the deal either - which is supposed to pay him $14 mil at age 34. Even if he's still that good at 34, it'll then be a 5 year deal @ $13.5.

Yes, there are incentives for DPOY, Pro Bowl, etc. But we don't know exactly what they are. DPOY is not a likely incentive, for example. In any case those types of incentives are present for almost any veteran FA you sign. It's certainly a great way to keep the players motivated and mitigate risk.

With regard to the guarantee, the $42 is NOT fully guaranteed right away. There are injury guarantees, but the Bears can get rid of him for performance reasons. You're right that most teams can't afford a $20 mil cap hit now that the cap is back and that it's not much of a mitigating factor. Still it's better than nothing at all, and teams have to do something creative.

As to why I think he would be worth less than Peppers? As I mentioned, if you compare Williams to Peppers and Jared Allen (the other big contract DE), Williams has been less durable and his per-game stats are slightly worse. So an argument can be made that he's not quite as good a player as the other 2.

In the end, there may be a team that's got tons of cap space and decides to offer him a Peppers-like contract (or even bigger) regardless of whether he's worth the money. That team will not be the Patriots. And it will be up to Williams to decide whether he wants to maximize every dollar, or choose where he plays, whom he plays with, and what scheme he'll be in.

 

[sevengables_2207]

Mario Williams is at the top of my wish list for the Patriots in FA. I think at this point is is speculative for sure, but the team has spent money on big name players in the past, so it would not be unprecedented if they were to say hypothetically agree to terms with Williams, Brandon Lloyd, and either safety Griffin (if not franchised by the Titans) or Goldson (whom they entertained last summer). I think this scenario would be made easier financially with a Welker extension (as opposed to slapping a Franchise Tag), and would give the team the luxury of going into the draft with the luxury of taking the best talent on the board (offensive line, defensive line, cornerback, wide receiver...)

I confess adding Williams (in addition to Lloyd and a safety) via FA, then using the draft to influx talent onto the roster would make this team quite formidable indeed... just think it might not be economically viable for the team-building philosophy that has been manifest there over the years.

 

[Don Kipines]

I don't think there's any question that Peppers was a more valuable player on the open market than Williams will be. Peppers had six seasons of 10+ sacks when he hit the market. He had only had one healthy season of less than 10 sacks. Williams has hit 10 sacks twice; he's had three good but not great seasons to go with one fantastic season, his second year. He's shown flashes but in Houston there has been constant debate about how best to deploy him, since he doesn't seem to be a perfect fit anywhere. He can play 4-3 DE and he looked good as a 3-4 LB this year, but he's never been an unstoppable, DeMarcus-Ware-type force out there. When you think of the best pass-rushers in the league, Williams isn't in the top 5, but Peppers certainly is.

I think he'll get a contract about the same size as Peppers just because the price tag for pass-rushers is going up and there are going to be multiple suitors with a lot of cap space. He may even get a deal slightly bigger, just so he can set the market. But a deal like that wouldn't be crippling for New England.

He'd be outstanding for this defense, since he's a player who can play in all of the Pats' multiple looks. You could even put him at 3-4 end. He'd make everyone better and add legitimacy to the whole defensive front. They have a few years left with Brady, they have two left with Hernandez and Gronk under control, and they need to stop worrying about finances so much: they need to load up while they still have a window. They need to shoot their whole wad.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I don't think there's any question that Peppers was a more valuable player on the open market than Williams will be. Peppers had six seasons of 10+ sacks when he hit the market. He had only had one healthy season of less than 10 sacks. Williams has hit 10 sacks twice; he's had three good but not great seasons to go with one fantastic season, his second year. He's shown flashes but in Houston there has been constant debate about how best to deploy him, since he doesn't seem to be a perfect fit anywhere. He can play 4-3 DE and he looked good as a 3-4 LB this year, but he's never been an unstoppable, DeMarcus-Ware-type force out there. When you think of the best pass-rushers in the league, Williams isn't in the top 5, but Peppers certainly is.

I think he'll get a contract about the same size as Peppers just because the price tag for pass-rushers is going up and there are going to be multiple suitors with a lot of cap space. He may even get a deal slightly bigger, just so he can set the market. But a deal like that wouldn't be crippling for New England.

He'd be outstanding for this defense, since he's a player who can play in all of the Pats' multiple looks. You could even put him at 3-4 end. He'd make everyone better and add legitimacy to the whole defensive front. They have a few years left with Brady, they have two left with Hernandez and Gronk under control, and they need to stop worrying about finances so much: they need to load up while they still have a window. They need to shoot their whole wad.

Teams that operate in windows mode usually end up getting their fingers slammed in them. That's why this team never has taken that approach. They build for the long term and tweek for the short term.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I took a very close look, actually. As you know, there is a difference between the deal announced to the media, and the reality of the deal. I.E. Albert Haynesworth's contract wasn't really a $100 million contract. So I'm pointing out the real value of that deal.

And I'll just repeat, the REAL MONEY deal is for 3 years@ $13.5. If you want to throw in the $1.8 mil guarantee for 2013, that's fine. If the Bears feel Peppers is worth $13 mil in 2013, they can keep him. That'll make it a 4 year deal @ just under $13.5. If not, they get rid of him and pay $1.8 mil - a cap hit that's not different from many other players who are cut due to underperforming their contract (e.g. Ocho). Peppers will never see the last year of this deal - which pays him $16.5 mil and brings up the perceived value of the contract to $14/year. And he most likely will not see the 5th year of the deal either - which is supposed to pay him $14 mil at age 34. Even if he's still that good at 34, it'll then be a 5 year deal @ $13.5.

Yes, there are incentives for DPOY, Pro Bowl, etc. But we don't know exactly what they are. DPOY is not a likely incentive, for example. In any case those types of incentives are present for almost any veteran FA you sign. It's certainly a great way to keep the players motivated and mitigate risk.

With regard to the guarantee, the $42 is NOT fully guaranteed right away. There are injury guarantees, but the Bears can get rid of him for performance reasons. You're right that most teams can't afford a $20 mil cap hit now that the cap is back and that it's not much of a mitigating factor. Still it's better than nothing at all, and teams have to do something creative.

As to why I think he would be worth less than Peppers? As I mentioned, if you compare Williams to Peppers and Jared Allen (the other big contract DE), Williams has been less durable and his per-game stats are slightly worse. So an argument can be made that he's not quite as good a player as the other 2.

In the end, there may be a team that's got tons of cap space and decides to offer him a Peppers-like contract (or even bigger) regardless of whether he's worth the money. That team will not be the Patriots. And it will be up to Williams to decide whether he wants to maximize every dollar, or choose where he plays, whom he plays with, and what scheme he'll be in.

Peppers did get a small signing bonus. $6.75M. Then last year he got a $10.5M roster bonus that the Bears had to convert to signing bonus to free up... cap space. So if they were to cut him in 2013 including his $1.8M in remaining guaranteed money, they would have a dead cap hit of close to $11M. $6M+ in 2014.

Had they done a more normal contract structure absent the uncapped year - the kind of deal we would have to do now with bonus vs. up front salary - those numbers would be prohibitively larger. Add about $3M more per season in amortization. That's why we didn't persue him. And why we have to think long and hard before we persue any player at double digit contract level for that reason. And Mario will want a deal at that double digit level based on his age and the market and an impending cap increase. Otherwise Houston, who is debating his value on a team that went as far as it did last season largely on the backs of a defense that was absent him and it's starting QB, would have gotten him extended already on a team friendly deal...

Peppers said many of the same things after 8 seasons of relative futility in Carolina. Not about the money. Intrigued by scheme. But in the end it was the money. Money talks and bs walks.

 

[makoute]

I don't think there's any question that Peppers was a more valuable player on the open market than Williams will be. Peppers had six seasons of 10+ sacks when he hit the market. He had only had one healthy season of less than 10 sacks. Williams has hit 10 sacks twice; he's had three good but not great seasons to go with one fantastic season, his second year. He's shown flashes but in Houston there has been constant debate about how best to deploy him, since he doesn't seem to be a perfect fit anywhere. He can play 4-3 DE and he looked good as a 3-4 LB this year, but he's never been an unstoppable, DeMarcus-Ware-type force out there. When you think of the best pass-rushers in the league, Williams isn't in the top 5, but Peppers certainly is.

I think he'll get a contract about the same size as Peppers just because the price tag for pass-rushers is going up and there are going to be multiple suitors with a lot of cap space. He may even get a deal slightly bigger, just so he can set the market. But a deal like that wouldn't be crippling for New England.

He'd be outstanding for this defense, since he's a player who can play in all of the Pats' multiple looks. You could even put him at 3-4 end. He'd make everyone better and add legitimacy to the whole defensive front. They have a few years left with Brady, they have two left with Hernandez and Gronk under control, and they need to stop worrying about finances so much: they need to load up while they still have a window. They need to shoot their whole wad.

Reason why the Pats should've signed Peppers. Especially if they end up signing Williams.

 

[bucky]

Peppers did get a small signing bonus. $6.75M. Then last year he got a $10.5M roster bonus that the Bears had to convert to signing bonus to free up... cap space. So if they were to cut him in 2013 including his $1.8M in remaining guaranteed money, they would have a dead cap hit of close to $11M. $6M+ in 2014.

Had they done a more normal contract structure absent the uncapped year - the kind of deal we would have to do now with bonus vs. up front salary - those numbers would be prohibitively larger. Add about $3M more per season in amortization. That's why we didn't persue him. And why we have to think long and hard before we persue any player at double digit contract level for that reason. And Mario will want a deal at that double digit level based on his age and the market and an impending cap increase. Otherwise Houston, who is debating his value on a team that went as far as it did last season largely on the backs of a defense that was absent him and it's starting QB, would have gotten him extended already on a team friendly deal...

Peppers said many of the same things after 8 seasons of relative futility in Carolina. Not about the money. Intrigued by scheme. But in the end it was the money. Money talks and bs walks.

Yes, the Bears will take a significant cap hit if they cut him. But that's their fault for not planning it properly. My point was more in looking at it from the player's perspective. Peppers can't be sure he's getting anything more than the $42 mil. And the reason I was saying that was to put the potential market for Williams in perspective.

I do agree with the rest of your points though. BB will never be out there offering record contracts to FAs. When he reeled in Colvin and AD, they were respectively the best front 7 UFA available that year. But the contract they got was not record-setting. In fact, both contracts were categorized as the player choosing where they wanted to play over the highest offer. I'm sure BB did the same with Peppers and will do the same with Williams. At that point, it's up to the player to decide.