Mock Draft Better - Draft Insiders

[meggett]

Oh Gawd not another one.

O line is def a concern. you guys forget that we dealt with injuries all last year on both lines. Warren going down was a major blow. love how ive "fallen for the common guru trap" but you are well above it. im well aware of the differences. i would love to get ingram at 17 or leshoure at 28. i would love even more getting ronnie brown, pierre thomas or even Ryan Grant should he become available. but with FA in limbo the way it is the only thing we can be concerned with is the draft. all im saying is we dont need to go right to DE in the first round. would be nice to have a playmaker at the WR position, but were gonna miss out on Jones or Green. We get Warren back, another year for Cunningham, McCourty is a pro bowl CB and we get Bodden back as well, who was supposed to be our No. 1 CB last year. remember how we won the Super Bowls in years past, either it was Antoine Smith or it was Corey Dillon. A RB to take the pressure off Brady is all im saying. BGE is not that. We shouldnt have to throw the ball 35-45 times a game. my thinking is that if a team is gonna draft a RB in the first round, that team has to be a good squad before that player gets there. we have a good team. a 14-2 record says so.

 

[MaineMan]

Oh Gawd not another one.

O line is def a concern. you guys forget that we dealt with injuries all last year on both lines. Warren going down was a major blow. love how ive "fallen for the common guru trap" but you are well above it. im well aware of the differences. i would love to get ingram at 17 or leshoure at 28. i would love even more getting ronnie brown, pierre thomas or even Ryan Grant should he become available. but with FA in limbo the way it is the only thing we can be concerned with is the draft. all im saying is we dont need to go right to DE in the first round. would be nice to have a playmaker at the WR position, but were gonna miss out on Jones or Green. We get Warren back, another year for Cunningham, McCourty is a pro bowl CB and we get Bodden back as well, who was supposed to be our No. 1 CB last year. remember how we won the Super Bowls in years past, either it was Antoine Smith or it was Corey Dillon. A RB to take the pressure off Brady is all im saying. BGE is not that. We shouldnt have to throw the ball 35-45 times a game. my thinking is that if a team is gonna draft a RB in the first round, that team has to be a good squad before that player gets there. we have a good team. a 14-2 record says so.

In 2001-03, with Smith as the feature back, the Pats threw 55% of the time, an average of 34 times per game. The Pats won the SB in 2001 and 2003 when the defense was ranked #6 and #1, respectively. They missed the playoffs in 2002 when the defense ranked 17th.

In 2004-06, with Dillon as the feature back, the Pats threw 52% of the time, an average of 33 times per game. The Pats won the SB in 2004 and made the AFCC Game in 2006 when the defense ranked #2. They lost in the Divisional Round in 2005 when the defense ranked #17.

In 2007-10, with a rotation of backs, the Pats threw 54% of the time, an average of 35 times per game. In 2007, the Pats were undefeated in the regular season and made it to the SB throwing 57% of the time, an average of 37 times per game. The defense was ranked #4.

In 2010, with BGE/Woodhead, the Pats threw 53% of the time, an average of 32 times per game. The offense was ranked #1 in points and #8 in yards. The defense was ranked #8 in points and #25 in yards.

 

[MaineMan]

In 2001-03, with Smith as the feature back, the Pats threw 55% of the time, an average of 34 times per game. The Pats won the SB in 2001 and 2003 when the defense was ranked #6 and #1, respectively. They missed the playoffs in 2002 when the defense ranked 17th.

In 2004-06, with Dillon as the feature back, the Pats threw 52% of the time, an average of 33 times per game. The Pats won the SB in 2004 and made the AFCC Game in 2006 when the defense ranked #2. They lost in the Divisional Round in 2005 when the defense ranked #17.

In 2007-10, with a rotation of backs, the Pats threw 54% of the time, an average of 35 times per game. In 2007, the Pats were undefeated in the regular season and made it to the SB throwing 57% of the time, an average of 37 times per game. The defense was ranked #4.

In 2010, with BGE/Woodhead, the Pats threw 53% of the time, an average of 32 times per game. The offense was ranked #1 in points and #8 in yards. The defense was ranked #8 in points and #25 in yards.

Postus interruptus. Sorry, the dog needed to go out and then one thing led to another.

To continue.............

I didn't set out to "prove meggett WRONG!!!", but the general direction of his comment, "back when we had Dillon/Smith to take the pressure off Brady" (which we've all heard before) got me wondering. I didn't remember the Pats run/pass ratio being significantly different in those years. I wasn't certain - could have been, y'know. So I decided to check and then posted the results.

There actually was one year - 2004 (Dillon) - when the Pats ran more than they passed (485 pass to 524 run) and another year - 2002 (Smith) - when the Pats passed over 60% of the time (38 passes per game). The rest of the years are pretty close to the average: 52%-54% passing, 32-35 passes per game.

However, on an individual game basis, it's still entirely possible that both Dillon and Smith made a significant difference in ways that are beyond BGE's capabilities. So, really, I'm not so much disputing meggett's claim as I am disputing the "broad evidence" it's based on.

I've been pretty consistent about claiming that the Pats, in 2010 using BGE, needed to devote extra blocking resources to get anything much going in the ground game and that this, in turn, usually required taking one of our better pass-catchers out of the set. I've followed on with my hypothesis that having a back who didn't require extra blocking resources to the same extent - an RB who would still be a significant threat to break a big run even out of a 4-WR set (using Adrian Peterson as the example) - could be very helpful and might have made a significant difference versus the defense that the Jets presented in the playoff game. I've also noted that such backs are uncommon and that I'm not at all certain that there is one in this RB class, even in the projected 1st-rounders.

However, between the Peterson and BGE extremes, there's the type of back who perhaps always needs extra blocking, as BGE does, to get to the 2nd level, but who has a consistent "2nd cut" and more breakaway speed and who might thus be capable of threatening more damage on each carry. Smith and/or Dillon may well have been closer to this type and, of course, we have no way of determining, at this remove, how much extra blocking help they needed (or how often, comparatively) to get going (unless we can review the game tapes from those years). It's also entirely possible that neither Ingram or LeShoure are any more than just this.

So, the question becomes, do we really need to risk spending a 1st round pick? We might come away with an Adrian Peterson type, but there's an equal (if not greater) chance that we come away with an in-between type who we could perhaps just as easily obtain with a 3rd or 4th rounder.

 

[reflexblue]

In 2001-03, with Smith as the feature back, the Pats threw 55% of the time, an average of 34 times per game. The Pats won the SB in 2001 and 2003 when the defense was ranked #6 and #1, respectively. They missed the playoffs in 2002 when the defense ranked 17th.

In 2004-06, with Dillon as the feature back, the Pats threw 52% of the time, an average of 33 times per game. The Pats won the SB in 2004 and made the AFCC Game in 2006 when the defense ranked #2. They lost in the Divisional Round in 2005 when the defense ranked #17.

In 2007-10, with a rotation of backs, the Pats threw 54% of the time, an average of 35 times per game. In 2007, the Pats were undefeated in the regular season and made it to the SB throwing 57% of the time, an average of 37 times per game. The defense was ranked #4.

In 2010, with BGE/Woodhead, the Pats threw 53% of the time, an average of 32 times per game. The offense was ranked #1 in points and #8 in yards. The defense was ranked #8 in points and #25 in yards.

Taking Ingrahm at seventeen is crazy period. There are much more important needs than taking a RB that MIGHT be very good. We're badly in need of a pass rush, and there are better players at that position than Ingrahm is at his. I would love to have him but not at seventeen.

 

[meggett]

Taking Ingrahm at seventeen is crazy period. There are much more important needs than taking a RB that MIGHT be very good. We're badly in need of a pass rush, and there are better players at that position than Ingrahm is at his. I would love to have him but not at seventeen.

i see your point. but to play devils advocate, any player we draft at 17 MIGHT be very good. just look at Gholston from a couple years ago. yikes. i like our young defense, more than some others here at least from a D line standpoint. I understand finding a replacement for matt light, as he cant pass protect worth a damn. especially against fast DE/OLBs. If FA starts on time, or close to it, would love to see Ronnie Brown or Thomas like i said in patriot blue. then draft away at lineman if you want. but grab a WR sometime too. You guys may think im wrong but i think Brown is a perfect fit for Pats. as long as he stays relatively healthy which i kno is a big if.

 

[MaineMan]

@meggett

Seems like the QUOTE tags are kerflooey (and making it very difficult to follow this discussion). The quote in your last post attributed to "MaineMan" was actually by "reflexblue". Maybe you already had that figured out, but I just thought I'd mention it.

 

[meggett]

@meggett

Seems like the QUOTE tags are kerflooey (and making it very difficult to follow this discussion). The quote in your last post attributed to "MaineMan" was actually by "reflexblue". Maybe you already had that figured out, but I just thought I'd mention it.

i know. whatever i hit, it was wrong. didnt see it till after i posted it. hopefully my dumbass wont do it again...but no promises..

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Taking Ingrahm at seventeen is crazy period. There are much more important needs than taking a RB that MIGHT be very good. We're badly in need of a pass rush, and there are better players at that position than Ingrahm is at his. I would love to have him but not at seventeen.

I don't think taking Ingram at #17 is crazy at all, however I can't see him getting past Miami at #15.

 

[DW Toys]

I'm not sure the issue is the actual picks. I think many more would have accepted your basic draft with one change. OL is much more important in the draft that WR. I just can't see the 2nd round value of a young wide receiver who would likely sit on the bench for a year.

17 DE Watt
28 RB Ingram
33 OT Carimi (or pick your alternate OL)
60 OLB Acho

I agree with your first two. That is who I picked too.

At #33 I picked G Danny Watkins, who is more mature and perhaps the most NFL ready O Lineman. I like him over Carimi and Guard might be more of a need pending Mankins or Neal.

I slip a "Mickey Finn" in the next picks. Can't see Sanders at $3m for a rotation S with limited skills. That is a CAP biggy. The whole problem is he won't fetch more than a sixth. The Cowboys need a Safety. Merriweather should peak Jones ego. Say Pro Bowl Safety (really?) and watch Jerry. Merriweather will ask for the moon in 2012 because he has a Pro Bowl on his resume. I can see very realistically the 'Boys sending their 2nd, #40 for BM. I can not still be a fan of JS but Merriweather can fetch more. BUT....There is a caveat. I want the Pats to sign Champ Bailey as a FS to pair with Chung. He is still one of the best CBs in the NFL, but our Safety play and coverage has been awful (30th in passing yards). A pass rush helps but JS is not any where near a good coverage guy. Think flexibility of using Bailey at all DB positions. He can also be a help to the kids.

You might be able to up the anti on Sanders to the 2012 Draft to get perhaps a fourth or someone desperate, a third on Draft day. Brown showed flashes and Barrett was taken even though injured which says something. I have no problem moving the worst two coverage Safeties if Bailey is with us. A huge upgrade there.

With that #40 pick I go OLB Brooks Reed. Relentless.

With #60 I go Hankerson WR.

With #74 I go a typical BB move and gather Greg Romeus a 6' 5" , 270 lb OLB/DE who was Big East player of the year in 2009 and a top five pick if he came out last year by some. He has power, speed and agility. He stayed for his Sr. year and had to repair and disc and an ACL. He can be a steal of the Draft. In 2009 he had 11.5 TFL, 8 sacks and an interception and blocked a kick. Two sacks in the Sunbowl with four tackles.

We needed a TE last year. BB hedged his bet with two. I see the same with Reed and Romeus. Watt should be a pressure guy as well. Add a healthy Wright and we should have some pressure. I would like to see the addition Manny Lawson as a FA. Only 26 and can start right now. Great on coverage. Can rush. That should cover our DE/OLB pass rush holes. Lawson and the kids. Can't see TBC at $4.5m.

At #92 I go O Line with James Carpenter who started 27 games at LT for the Tide. All SEC and very much under the radar. Was a stud in the Senior Bowl. Saban seals the deal with BB on that kid.

Fourth round I go C/G John Moffitt who is also a little under rated. This kid is tough and can be the replacement for the smallish Koppen soon.

I feel we get a comp for Watson in the fourth. I pick Shiloh Keo S from Idaho. Best Defensive player of the Shrine game. Good punt returner as well. 6' 223lbs and a hard hitter. Fast enough to cover. Not afraid to take out blockers on a sweep. Top ST kid.

I swap my fifth for Chad Johnson. 6'1" can still stretch the field and as good a route runner as can be. Will be out to prove BB was wise to sign him. Not afraid to catch over the middle. Durable. Makes Branch not have to take on the other teams best CB. ......So what, he has fun. Seems he can pair with WW. Chad gives Price and Hankerson another year or two.

I believe the Tate experiment would be over (Bethel II). Tate was a mediocre WR in college. Noted for his returns. He is not a disappointment if we use that criteria.

Sixth I go 6'2" CB from Stanford. Richard Sherman. He is Raw but a converted WR (plays both) who has the tall CB size you need. Finally the "quick twitch smurf CB" deal is put to rest. Was decent in the Senior Bowl and had an INT.

DW Toys

 

[MaineMan]

i know. whatever i hit, it was wrong. didnt see it till after i posted it. hopefully my dumbass wont do it again...but no promises..

It wasn't your fault. The QUOTE tags got out of whack even before I posted (I think) and I didn't notice until too late, either.

 

[MaineMan]

...............
I believe the Tate experiment would be over (Bethel II). ..........
DW Toys

RECEIVING

Tate:
24/432, 18.0 ypc, 3 TDs, 52% catch rate -- 2010 only

Bethel Johnson:
30/450, 15.0 ypc, 4 TDs, 47% catch rate -- in 39 games (over 3 years)

Chad Jackson:
13/152, 11.7 ypc, 3 TDs -- in 14 games (over 2 years)


KICK RETURNS

Tate:
41/1057, 25.8 ypKR, 2 TDs -- 2010 only

Johnson:
41/1016, 24.8 ypKR, 1 TD -- 2004 (his 2nd, and best by far, year)

Tate:
4/106, 26.5 ypKR -- 2009 only (2 games)

Jackson:
6/106, 17.7 ypKR -- his total KR production over 2 seasons

 

[mcsully]

Well, I CAN and DO call Ingram a waste of a pick

I wouldn't call it a waste of a pick, INGRAM would bring more talent and youth to a position that needs it.. While I agree with you on the OL needs addressing, I don't see a major overhaul in one year with the Pats OL. One of the major reasons the OL functions so well is players being in the system for a couple of years.. I definitely can see a OL being picked with one of the top 33 picks.

Gronkowski might not be an ELITE player yet, but he was a rookie and did an amazing job. And I expect him to continue to progress into an ELITE player.

He's right, besides Brady, we don't have an elite player on offense. Granted, Gronk looks part but I feel we need a RB who can dictate a game when defenses key on Brady. I'm more inclined to go after D. Williams from Carolina.. He's been in a system that rotates the back and he'd be a great fit here (not saying back up the bank truck but he deserves fair compensation)

Well, first of all, you seem to have fallen victim to the normal Draft Guru trap. They lump all the DEs into one pot, with it not mattering whether they are 3-4 DEs or 4-3 DEs. There is a significant different between the 2. There are not 10 1st round DEs who fit the 3-4 mold. There are 3 maybe 4.

I think a lot of us do this but most people, like Mayock, won't break DE's into a system until after the combine.. That being said, there are only about 11 teams running 3-4 and the other 19 are running the 4-3. Statisticly there is more depth DE fitting our system than a 4-3 team (Four 3-4 DE's for 11 teams, compared to 6 DE's for 19 teams running)

 

[mcsully]

RECEIVING

Tate:
24/432, 18.0 ypc, 3 TDs, 52% catch rate -- 2010 only

Bethel Johnson:
30/450, 15.0 ypc, 4 TDs, 47% catch rate -- in 39 games (over 3 years)

Chad Jackson:
13/152, 11.7 ypc, 3 TDs -- in 14 games (over 2 years)


KICK RETURNS

Tate:
41/1057, 25.8 ypKR, 2 TDs -- 2010 only

Johnson:
41/1016, 24.8 ypKR, 1 TD -- 2004 (his 2nd, and best by far, year)

Tate:
4/106, 26.5 ypKR -- 2009 only (2 games)

Jackson:
6/106, 17.7 ypKR -- his total KR production over 2 seasons

LOVE IT!!!!

We need to remember, and I'm included, Tate 1st year was this past season.

edit***
I think a lot of the issue with Tate is the perception from the Media.. They talked him up taking over for Moss, which is totally unfair.
2nd year player coming back from a major injury being compared to one of the best WR's of all time. crazy!

 

[MaineMan]

LOVE IT!!!!

We need to remember, and I'm included, Tate 1st year was this past season.

edit***
I think a lot of the issue with Tate is the perception from the Media.. They talked him up taking over for Moss, which is totally unfair.
2nd year player coming back from a major injury being compared to one of the best WR's of all time. crazy!

I think it really starts with thinking of him as a WR at all. It should be clear, after looking at BB's history wrt kick returners, that Tate was drafted primarily as a KR - as were (probably) Johnson and then Jackson (thus demonstrating that good ones are not as easy to come by as a lot of people appear to think).

And Tate's given us a very good season in his specialty - 2nd best in BB's history with the Pats. The fact that he's contributed as much as he has in the passing game is a significant bonus. If he actually manages to become a consistent deep threat, getting as many snaps per game as Moss did, BB will probably start looking for another KR.

 

[mcsully]

I think it really starts with thinking of him as a WR at all. It should be clear, after looking at BB's history wrt kick returners, that Tate was drafted primarily as a KR - as were (probably) Johnson and then Jackson (thus demonstrating that good ones are not as easy to come by as a lot of people appear to think).

And Tate's given us a very good season in his specialty - 2nd best in BB's history with the Pats. The fact that he's contributed as much as he has in the passing game is a significant bonus. If he actually manages to become a consistent deep threat, getting as many snaps per game as Moss did, BB will probably start looking for another KR.

I agree.. And I hope people won't perceive Price coming in and catching 60+ balls.. And then next year, people will say we need to replace him..

 

[townes]

If possible i'd love Watt at #17 with Wisniewski or Pouncey at #28 and a pass rusher/OLB at #33. the Combine will start the process of moving players closer to where they should end up[ on Draft Day and we will have a better idea in 2-3 weeks who will likely be available for them and where when the Draft comes. Ultimately it will come down to what talent is available and where, but in a best case scenario i'd like to see it play out this way.

 

[DW Toys]

RECEIVING

Tate:
24/432, 18.0 ypc, 3 TDs, 52% catch rate -- 2010 only

Bethel Johnson:
30/450, 15.0 ypc, 4 TDs, 47% catch rate -- in 39 games (over 3 years)

Chad Jackson:
13/152, 11.7 ypc, 3 TDs -- in 14 games (over 2 years)


KICK RETURNS

Tate:
41/1057, 25.8 ypKR, 2 TDs -- 2010 only

Johnson:
41/1016, 24.8 ypKR, 1 TD -- 2004 (his 2nd, and best by far, year)

Tate:
4/106, 26.5 ypKR -- 2009 only (2 games)

Jackson:
6/106, 17.7 ypKR -- his total KR production over 2 seasons

O.K. I don't get it. Are you saying pick the one who rots the least? I was not a Bethel fan although he was faster than Tate. Tate was chosen because of his return skills add to what he could do at WR. He is fine for a #5 WR.

In three years at NC and injured one of those, Tate stats show:
46 receptions 927 Yards 8 TDS
Not earth shattering. His biggest season at UNC he had only 25 catches.

In three years at Texas A&M and ironically injured one of those, Johnson's stats are:
90 receptions 1226 Yards 8 TDS

Johnson was bigger at 5'11" and 200 lbs and faster at a 4.2 40.

Versus Tate who is a shade under 6' and 190 lbs and a speed of 4.41 40.

By the way. Here is a shock. Woodhead is faster than Tate. Danny ran a 4.33.

At the end of the day Cousin, Johnson had double the catches of Tate in college.

I reiterate, Tate was an average WR at UNC. He was known for his return prowess. He is what he is. He is a fine #5 WR option. Forcing him into the #3 option was not as successful as hoped.

In an non-perfect world, there are two or three options to upgrade our passing attack in 2011. TB can not wait for years while some of these kids ....."Get it"....The window gets smaller. I say in my humble opinion that there are a few choices that will help TB now.

I want to start with Branch and what to do. He is NOT a true #1 WR and is more effective as a #2 and Welker as the slot man. We still need a taller WR who can draw coverage from that Safety's side of the field. That guy is NOT Tate. He is easily covered by a single mediocre NFL caliber CB at this point.

My options would be of course Fitzgerald above any to win right now. Others could be Sidney Rice who is a great talent but has been dinged and could still cost bucks, Steve Smith who isn't that big either but could easily play #1 WR if you can spring him from Carolina where he wants out, Santana Moss who is a FA, still smaller but could play #1 and had 93 receptions and 6 TDs for the complete chaos of the Redskins passing attack, or...... I like Chad Johnson with 67 catches, with as miserable of an offense as the Redskins with the Bengals, who is 6'1" and has great route running ability and cannot be handled by a one on one DB.......and he wants to play for BB. Is he a bad person? No. Chad is a fun guy who would have to tone it down(see Wes Welker) and if he can co-exist with T.O. taking his catches, he is not going to feel he needs to get into TB's ears every down. He wants to prove to BB that he is a winner here which is the chip you saw when Moss got here.

It forces the best cover CB from the other Team like Revis to cover one of these guys who is the #1 and creates openings for Branch who proved he cannot get open as much as we all hoped as the #1. All these options above can stretch the field. Reiss likes Steve Smith. He and Johnson are both passionate about the game which BB loves to see.

I think Branch had his game taken away with the injuries and his Seattle journey (nice job Mr. Agent). He is still capable of production in spots but he was still dinged even here last year. He cannot take the beating anymore. I think at the least, Santana Moss and Chad Johnson are more durable.

Now let us consider if we wait on Tate, or pick yet another WR in the Draft and wait on him? Do we hope that Price is ready? Our latest WR picks have been awfully slow to develop. Or...... do we take a legitimate #1 WR option by Trade or FA that can play right now and produce to go out and win the SB this coming year. I want to win right now while TB is still the man.

I like some of the WR in the Draft but after the first few, as you all say......no thanks(is that it? As if we are the chosen chooser). I would leave the Draft picks to upgrade other areas of concern that can develop faster than a Pats drafted WR is able to do. As Terry Holt said in his interview and he saw both Price and Tate, we need possibly two WR in 2011 and his reference was veterans for Tom to trust.

As a fall back, why not Donte Stallworth? As a part time starter here for one year he did have 46 receptions. Then he got dinged and could not get back to starter. Gaffney had an excellent last half of the season.

Stallworth is healthy now. He is a deep threat. He should be cheap. He knows the system and the area. In nine games he caught 46 passes as the #3 WR. In ten games Tate caught 24. In college Stallworth was over 1,700 yards in receptions and his best TD year was 10 with 3 games out for a broken wrist. He is listed at 6'1" and has run a 4.29 40.

DW Toys

 

[Deus Irae]

LOVE IT!!!!

We need to remember, and I'm included, Tate 1st year was this past season.

edit***
I think a lot of the issue with Tate is the perception from the Media.. They talked him up taking over for Moss, which is totally unfair.
2nd year player coming back from a major injury being compared to one of the best WR's of all time. crazy!

1.) It wasn't Tate's first season

2.) The reality is that Maineman is comparing Tate to an earlier bust. Beating out Bethel Johnson is not exactly a tremendous accomplishment.

3.) Tate had only 24 catches, even with Moss getting traded away. As a matter of fact, he had 11 of his 24 catches in the 4 games that Moss played for the Patriots, and both 4 catch games he had were in the first 4 weeks of the season. Essentially, once Moss was gone, Tate became a 1 catch per game player. That sucks for a starting wide receiver.

4.) His success track in the return game followed a similar path, perhaps from overuse once Moss was gone.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TateBr00/gamelog/2010/

 

[townes]

Using only players available according to Draft Scouts current ratings I came up with:

#17-J.J. Watt DL Wisconsin

#28-M. Pouncey OL Fla.

#33-T. Smith WR Maryland

#58-B. Carter OLB N. Car.



Watt and Pouncey address needs with players who are unlikely to bust, whereas T. Smith is a work in progress with big upside and Carter was a top fifteen pick before the knee injury and could give them more pass rush off the edge when healthy. The picks had to be on their board at that point to be taken, and although that will change in coming weeks it's the best way i know to do mocks without making a bunch of homer choices hoping they will fall to them. If Pouncey is gone i'd go with Wisniewski, who imo is another prospect with a low likelihood of busting.

 

[Sciz]

That sucks for a starting wide receiver.

Good thing he's not a starting wide receiver, then. He's the #3 receiver in a 2WR offense.