Is a pass rush specialist worth a top 40 pick?

[Metaphors]

I have no doubt that outside linebacker for the Cowboys would be another prototype.

Of course, I'm assuming that "Pass rush specialist" does not imply that they have zero other skills.

Exactly. Ware is the type of guy that takes this defense to the next level. Someone that offenses have to gameplan against, making the rest of the defense even more effective.

While Ware can set the edge and hold up reasonably well against the run, he isn't known for that. While he can drop back into a short/medium zones, he rarely does that. He is an elite rush guy that does everything else well enough that he has some flexibility and can't be picked on. That is why I don't think you disqualify a draft prospect because he hasn't shown proficiency dropping into coverage or setting up wide against the run. When you can dominate in the opposing backfield in college, that is what you get asked to do all the time.

 

[patchick]

Oh, I would assume that Belichick's many pursuits of Jason Taylor over the years would serve as some indication what he's looking for. I have no doubt that outside linebacker for the Cowboys would be another prototype.

Of course, I'm assuming that "Pass rush specialist" does not imply that they have zero other skills.

This is getting interesting. In response to my question of what we picture a "pass rush specialist" looking like and how they'd be used, I've been told to picture Elvis Dumervil, James Harrison, Jason Taylor, Demarcus Ware, Rosie Colvin, Jarvis Green, and Willie McGinest.

So now I understand that we're looking for a guy roughly 5'11" - 6'6", 240-290 lbs., who will play OLB, 4-3 DE and occasionally 3-4 DE. The "pass rushing specialist" will also be useful against the run, and will make the Pro Bowl.

OK then, YES, it's worth devoting a top-40 pick to a player who fits that description.

 

[reflexblue]

Ive forgotten how many sacks AT had but i think it was around 120 or so.

 

[jays52]

Is it fair to call Robert Mathis a fairly accurate depiction of what we're trying to find? Ideally, one could find someone like that in the third round. Given how defenses have been shrinking and getting faster, I think that somewhere between 25 and 40 is where a guy like that will go. I think that the problem with a "specialist" is that you're assuming his skill set is so skewed that being on the field will render the defense overly predictible. If you can find a guy with deceptive power from great technique then I think you have the fit. The key is either coaching him up enough or finding that innate talent that occasionally will flash on film.

 

[Metaphors]

So now I understand that we're looking for a guy roughly 5'11" - 6'6", 240-290 lbs., who will play OLB, 4-3 DE and occasionally 3-4 DE. The "pass rushing specialist" will also be useful against the run, and will make the Pro Bowl.

Actually, I think Belichick has previously detailed what he is looking for:

6'5"-6'6"
260+
4.6 forty (with appropriately high explosion and quickness measureables)
Functionally strong enough to hold up on the edge against the run
Can play on their feet or with a hand on the ground

There are really only 3 players that match this:
Robert Quinn
Da'Quan Bowers (with a 'fro)
Aldon Smith (with the wind at his back)

The first 2 are likely gone in the top 10 and Smith may not be coming out this year. If Belichick gets a shot at any of these guys, I expect him to take it.

 

[patchick]

Actually, I think Belichick has previously detailed what he is looking for:

6'5"-6'6"
260+
4.6 forty (with appropriately high explosion and quickness measureables)
Functionally strong enough to hold up on the edge against the run
Can play on their feet or with a hand on the ground

Ay, there's the rub. You've just defined the dream OLB: a bigger, stronger DeMarcus Ware. Clearly a player like that would be worth any pick you've got.

But if you look back to the original post that this poll was ostensibly about, it was talking about drafting an undersized player to play part-time in key pass-rushing situations. One player specifically named was Dumervil, who stands 5'11" and runs 4.75.

 

[Metaphors]

Ay, there's the rub. You've just defined the dream OLB: a bigger, stronger DeMarcus Ware. Clearly a player like that would be worth any pick you've got.

But if you look back to the original post that this poll was ostensibly about, it was talking about drafting an undersized player to play part-time in key pass-rushing situations. One player specifically named was Dumervil, who stands 5'11" and runs 4.75.

There were 2 parts to that...undersized one-trick pony and top 40 pick. I think individually either of those is fine, but they are mutually exclusive for Belichick. I think there is zero chance he takes Kerrigan (for example) since it would likely take a 1st round pick and he is relatively slow and not particularly strong. Same for Miller (looks like a safety) and Ayers (painfully weak). If an elite guy isn't there and he is targeting an OLB, it is more likely he trades down and takes a Beal or Acho (both comparable to Cunningham).

The only wildcard I see is Justin Houston. A little short but otherwise close to what Belichick is looking for. Wouldn't be surprised with Houston at #33...but also wouldn't be surprised if Houston wasn't on the Pats board at all.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

This is getting interesting. In response to my question of what we picture a "pass rush specialist" looking like and how they'd be used, I've been told to picture Elvis Dumervil, James Harrison, Jason Taylor, Demarcus Ware, Rosie Colvin, Jarvis Green, and Willie McGinest.

So now I understand that we're looking for a guy roughly 5'11" - 6'6", 240-290 lbs., who will play OLB, 4-3 DE and occasionally 3-4 DE. The "pass rushing specialist" will also be useful against the run, and will make the Pro Bowl.

OK then, YES, it's worth devoting a top-40 pick to a player who fits that description.

 

[SanAngeloState]

problem with a pass rush specaloost is that it is often hard to predict how they'll do in the pros. Jerry hughes...anyone? Been silent for colts so far. Often they simply bust. Then what do you do?

 

[patchick]

Box, you have a way of making me want a cup of coffee.

Anyway...the original question asked:

the basic premise is that some players may be too small to play fulltime in the Patriots scheme but are gifted pass rushers.

Think Clay Matthews, Elvis D.

Is a pass rush specialist worth a top 40 pick?

So who are we actually talking about in this draft who fits that description? Not Bowers or Quinn or Kerrigan or Beal or Romeus, they're big boys. Even the smallest of them could share clothes with Jermaine Cunningham. And with any of them, we'd presumably be looking for something more/different than a situational pass rush specialist.

I see two players who might fit: Von Miller and Dontay Moch. So to re-ask the original question, how high a pick would you spend on Von Miller or Dontay Moch? And would you take them over the guys named above?

 

[Metaphors]

I see two players who might fit: Von Miller and Dontay Moch. So to re-ask the original question, how high a pick would you spend on Von Miller or Dontay Moch? And would you take them over the guys named above?

Well lets just dismiss Moch since he is in the low 240's on a maxed-out 6'1" frame. If you draft him, you do it in the 4th round as a package guy that can contribute on coverage teams (dude can fly).

The same folks that like Matthews will likely fawn over Miller...since they are essentially the same player. They drive hard outside and eventually circle around to the QB...unless you have a QB that gets rid of the ball quickly and Kurt Warner drops 50 points on you in a playoff game or Matt Ryan completes 24 of 28. If these types of players rush the passer 30 times, they get 1-2 sacks and are easily escorted around the pocket by a single blocker on the other 28. That may be just fine for certain teams but would be unacceptable for Belichick. It just doesn't fit with what everyone else on the defense is doing.

So I would draft Moch in the 4th or later if I thought he could be a stud on special teams. I don't have Miller on my draft board at all. Let the Jets burn their 1st round pick on him and enjoy Vollmer giving him a guided museum tour (can look, no touch) of Brady in the pocket.

 

[hughthehand]

My whole issue with this idea is that almost all Pass Rush specialists in College play DE. In the 3-4 your DE's are run stoppers first, pass rushers second.

That leaves your OLB's as where you would put your Pass Rush specialist. I just cannot see Belichick using a top 40 pick on a player that has never played the position he plans on drafting him for. That just does not compute from any of the things we have seen from him in the past.

If he uses a top 40 pick on a guy that has Played OLB in college, then you sure as sh!t can bet that player can cover and play the run. So he would not been seen as a pass rush specialist.

Does anyone conisder Jermaine Cunningham to be a pass rush specialist? He has been pretty solid IMO, but that is not what I would call him. He was picked #53 overall, and I would draft his twin around #40 in 2011 in a heart beat. But thats because he is all around solid.

I would also use a top 40 pick on an a nice DE/NT that could play 3 downs, but I'd rather have him kick **** in run and be solid in passing situations then vice versa. Our defensive philosophy is more about containing the QB by collapsing the pocket and maintaining the gap discipline.

BB has said time and time again that sacks are one of the most over rated stat. Making the QB uncomfortable, making him get happy feet, and making bad throws is so much more important.

Pass rush specialists are a "sexy" pick. BB covets grit over flash IMO.

 

[jeffbiologist]

I think this team needs everything it can to get off the field on 3rd downs. We are getting better overall but teams are going to be playing from behind against us it brings the situational pass rusher on the field more than just third down. This team could use one, the question is will next years need one as much or more??

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Is this the right draft to discuss this? My understanding is there are a lot of elite talents, and guys who are natural fits for our 3-4. We should be able to easily draft someone who excels in all areas, not just a specialist, with one of our first 3 picks this year.

 

[patchick]

Is this the right draft to discuss this? My understanding is there are a lot of elite talents, and guys who are natural fits for our 3-4. We should be able to easily draft someone who excels in all areas, not just a specialist, with one of our first 3 picks this year.

:yeahthat:

I think the ultimate message of this thread is: NO, it's not worth spending a top-40 pick on a Von Miller, because potential 3-down players are equally available.

 

[dryheat44]

:yeahthat:

I think the ultimate message of this thread is: NO, it's not worth spending a top-40 pick on a Von Miller, because potential 3-down players are equally available.

Then allow me to offer the dissenting opinion: Assuming this team isn't blown up over the offseason, YES, it is absolutely worth spending a top-40 pick, not necessarily Von Miller (I'll let someone who watches more college ball than me fill out the placard), but on a player who can best rush the quarterback, even if he only sees the field on 3rd downs or other obvious passing situations. Or when we race out to a 28 point lead at the half. Or play a team with no rushing attack to speak of.

The weakness of this team is it's passing defense. Ultimately, if we don't win the Super Bowl this year, it will be because our defense couldn't get off the field on third down and couldn't get Brady & Co. back on the field.

I think Belichick is smart enough to adjust his draft value. To repeat myself, we've seen 3rd cornerbacks and 3rd down tailbacks rise in value over the last few years. He's even said as much himself. I think having spent as much time in the nickel and dime defenses this year, and as good as McCourty has been, nobody can cover for 6-7 seconds.

There was a lot of people who advocated drafting Tebow in the first two rounds last year (not you, IIRC), based on the fact he was filling some (imaginary) niche for us. I would expect those people to see the fact that a pass rush is an actual niche that needs to be filled, and the guys that can do it well go very high in the draft.

 

[mgteich]

We seem to be arguing whether to draft a situational pass rusher at 33 or 34 which is fine.

The problem is the talent we require would likely make the player a top 15 pick.

I think that this is NOT unusual. The DE that we would want as a situational pass rusher would be a 3-down starter for others, and would be more valuable to others.

 

[MaineMan]

Seems to me that, in the BB version of the FB3-4, "disguise" is one of the guiding principles - disguising coverages primarily, but disguising where pass rush pressure is coming from goes hand-in-hand with that to a great degree. Inserting a "pass-rush specialist" seems anathema to the whole "disguise" principle, much less spending a top 40 pick on one .

 

[convertedpatsfan]

:yeahthat:

I think the ultimate message of this thread is: NO, it's not worth spending a top-40 pick on a Von Miller, because potential 3-down players are equally available.

It looks like we'll have no problem acquiring a stud DE in the draft, no matter where that Raiders pick falls. I thought the 2009 draft was a great one. Then I saw the 2010 draft class. And then to realize the 2011 class could be the best of the three is...wow.

Then allow me to offer the dissenting opinion: Assuming this team isn't blown up over the offseason, YES, it is absolutely worth spending a top-40 pick, not necessarily Von Miller (I'll let someone who watches more college ball than me fill out the placard), but on a player who can best rush the quarterback, even if he only sees the field on 3rd downs or other obvious passing situations. Or when we race out to a 28 point lead at the half. Or play a team with no rushing attack to speak of.

The weakness of this team is it's passing defense. Ultimately, if we don't win the Super Bowl this year, it will be because our defense couldn't get off the field on third down and couldn't get Brady & Co. back on the field.

I think Belichick is smart enough to adjust his draft value. To repeat myself, we've seen 3rd cornerbacks and 3rd down tailbacks rise in value over the last few years. He's even said as much himself. I think having spent as much time in the nickel and dime defenses this year, and as good as McCourty has been, nobody can cover for 6-7 seconds.

There was a lot of people who advocated drafting Tebow in the first two rounds last year (not you, IIRC), based on the fact he was filling some (imaginary) niche for us. I would expect those people to see the fact that a pass rush is an actual niche that needs to be filled, and the guys that can do it well go very high in the draft.

I understand that and could even agree with that in other years, but this seems like the year where we should have an elite 3-down DE terror who can do it all just fall to us somehow. There are a lot of them available and we've got a lot of ammo in the first few rounds, so we shouldn't have to worry about getting just a pass-rush guy this year.

Maybe in another year where we'd have to make a significant move to get a 3-down guy, this type of thing would make a lot of sense. But this shouldn't be that year.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Seems to me that, in the BB version of the FB3-4, "disguise" is one of the guiding principles - disguising coverages primarily, but disguising where pass rush pressure is coming from goes hand-in-hand with that to a great degree. Inserting a "pass-rush specialist" seems anathema to the whole "disguise" principle, much less spending a top 40 pick on one .

You are correct sir. When BB's defense is operating at max capacity it is about disguising coverages in the secondary and the opposing offense not knowing which of the 4 LBers is covering and/or blitzing.

Unfortunately for us, every time TBC walks on the field, you know he is blitzing and when Ninkovich is on the field, he is usually in coverage. Cunningham blows in coverage, as you would expect given his college experience. So he is usually coming on the blitz.

The point to all this is the reason that opposing offenses are NOT seeing the full scope of the BB defense is because our OLB's are completely one dimensional. This is accounting for over 50% of the reason why his defense can not get off the field on third down, no disguise element at all. Completely vanilla and predictable.

If ever there was a draft where we can pick up some excellent 3-4 OLB talent early, this is that draft.

Kerrigan is of course my favorite because he is a pass rush demon, but also because he plays the run so well. However like Cunningham, he will need to be taught coverage.

Others include:

Romeus (if healthy could be a steal in the third or fourth round)
Sherrod
Clayborn (slimmed down version)
Ayers
and another half dozen others I have forgotten.

Bottom line: Kerrigan at $32 is a chance for BB to restock the OLB position with another guy like Cunningham that can develop into a multidimensional guy and help bring our defense back to full capacity.