Is a pass rush specialist worth a top 40 pick?

[VJCPatriot]

I just disagree with this line of thinking that the Pats will spend a 1st round pick on a conversion project at OLB. BB has never done it and I doubt he will start now unless he can land an absolute stud like Quinn. I think BB's philosophy is to outmuscle the other team in the trenches. The focus of draft discussion should be on what DE BB is targeting in this year's draft. Because the better the front of that DL is doing, the more freedom your linebackers will have to roam and the more effective they will be.

Essentially I believe that BB's philosophy is that - I will force you to double team my DL and that allows my linebackers to make plays. This means that the Pats can get away with having just average to above average guys at OLB and still have success pressuring the QB SO LONG AS their down linemen are giving the OL fits.

Think about it. BB passed on Clay Matthews twice. Chew on that one. Then consider that he also passed on Manny Lawson and Connor Barwin. I think history speaks loudly on this issue. DL stud in the 1st. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

 

[patchick]

DL stud in the 1st. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

I think there's rare unanimity on that point. That's presumably why the OP phrased the question the way he did -- because the Patriots have three picks in the top 40. So even if you assume that the high 1st is earmarked for a DE, the question remains.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I think there's rare unanimity on that point. That's presumably why the OP phrased the question the way he did -- because the Patriots have three picks in the top 40. So even if you assume that the high 1st is earmarked for a DE, the question remains.

If we're talking about late 1st early 2nd, I'd say no, BB doesn't draft one trick ponys with high picks. Look at Cunningham and I think that's the type of guy he wants. A solid all around guy that can be 'coached up'. I don't believe the Pats ever have had a more than double digit sacks OLB in the BB era, save for Vrabel. And he only did it once. Ok TBC also did it recently, but that appears to be a statistical aberration compared to his career norm.

 

[dryheat44]

Seems to me that, in the BB version of the FB3-4, "disguise" is one of the guiding principles - disguising coverages primarily, but disguising where pass rush pressure is coming from goes hand-in-hand with that to a great degree. Inserting a "pass-rush specialist" seems anathema to the whole "disguise" principle, much less spending a top 40 pick on one .

This is true. All true. And in the 3-4 base defense, the ability to play all roles is key. But in passing downs, it doesn't hurt to have a guy who's either going to rush, and it's on the O-Line to stop him, or command the blocking as if he was rushing.

Collinsworth made a great point last night that Green Bay has lately taken to faking the blitz with Matthews to get the O-line to slide protection that way, and then at the snap dropping him and sending the blitz from the other side.

 

[dryheat44]

Essentially I believe that BB's philosophy is that - I will force you to double team my DL and that allows my linebackers to make plays. This means that the Pats can get away with having just average to above average guys at OLB and still have success pressuring the QB SO LONG AS their down linemen are giving the OL fits.

.

True. But that doesn't help in the passing game where the opposing QB is testing the warmth of his mochiato before he decides where to throw the ball.

I think the time has come for Belichick to add a luxury piece to his roster.

 

[MaineMan]

This is true. All true. And in the 3-4 base defense, the ability to play all roles is key. But in passing downs, it doesn't hurt to have a guy who's either going to rush, and it's on the O-Line to stop him, or command the blocking as if he was rushing.

Collinsworth made a great point last night that Green Bay has lately taken to faking the blitz with Matthews to get the O-line to slide protection that way, and then at the snap dropping him and sending the blitz from the other side.

The thing is, this works only if the pass rusher you're "dropping out" isn't a liability in coverage (Matthews has actually gotten to be kinda decent in coverage). The reason being that the guy "replacing" your primary rusher on that blitz may well be a DB or someone else who would normally be in coverage, so the rusher who's dropping back has to replace that guy - which also becomes part of disguising coverages.

To me, in an ideal BB 3-4, at the end of the regular season you'd have 16 different guys with 3 sacks each and offenses would never have any one guy to key on.

 

[kypatfan]

Thing is, we will probably never know who BB will take. I know many of you have read the Lavin book about patriots' management stuff. I am just now finishing it and just laugh out loud at how on the mark it truly is about a lot of things on the 2010 patriots.

As for draft Prospects, Coachability is high on the list. So unless you know all about the player in question, you don't know whether or not BB would or could take him. The other thing I found interesting was that DL prospects tend to help out earlier in BB's system. It notes Richard Seyomour, Wilfork, and Ty Warren as examples. Reason being there is not as much to learn. Also it was stated in the books that O Tackles tend to be easier to grade than interior lineman (which the Pats think can be coached up with time and to save money).

In recent years, BB has gotten Mayo early in 1st, but I believe he is the exception. McCourty also is a huge exception. Thing is, with these guys,
we definitely did not know all that BB knew about them as far as how hard they worked at their craft.

In summary, I would guess that BB will not take a crazy pass rushing fool in the first round.........unless he can play most every down, is coachable, and smart, really smart. I would guess DL with the first pick and OT with second pick. Unless someone blows him away in an interview!

First post, long time lurker and damn proud Pats fan.

 

[cstjohn17]

The thing is, this works only if the pass rusher you're "dropping out" isn't a liability in coverage (Matthews has actually gotten to be kinda decent in coverage). The reason being that the guy "replacing" your primary rusher on that blitz may well be a DB or someone else who would normally be in coverage, so the rusher who's dropping back has to replace that guy - which also becomes part of disguising coverages.

To me, in an ideal BB 3-4, at the end of the regular season you'd have 16 different guys with 3 sacks each and offenses would never have any one guy to key on.

Coverage is the most overrated aspect of a 3-4 OLB. Their assignments usually are to drop 2-3 steps off the line, flank out to the flat or jam a TE/RB at the line. This can be taught and speed is not necessary.

I can count on one hand the number of times a 3-4 OLB has made a play more than 5 yards down field. Hell Wilfork knocked a pass down yesterday.

I guess if I had to rename this thread I would call it, "Should the Patriots replace TBC with a top 40 pick because I have a personal bias against him and his style of play?"

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

So who are we actually talking about in this draft who fits that description? Not Bowers or Quinn or Kerrigan or Beal or Romeus, they're big boys. Even the smallest of them could share clothes with Jermaine Cunningham. And with any of them, we'd presumably be looking for something more/different than a situational pass rush specialist.

I see two players who might fit: Von Miller and Dontay Moch. So to re-ask the original question, how high a pick would you spend on Von Miller or Dontay Moch? And would you take them over the guys named above?

Bowers -- I need to finish watching tape, but in terms of being the everyman BB desires at OLB, he's physically there. The major question for him is his mental and emotional situation.

Quinn -- Everything I've read says he's not a fit for NE mentally/emotionally.

Kerrigan -- Like Ochmed I think he's the best top 40 target for OLB in terms of motor and 2/3 of the OLB role, the question is his athleticism.

Beal -- he did nothing to sell me on him as a top 40 prospect or OLB prospect.

Romeus -- No, he's a 4-3 DE only.

Von Miller -- Athletically he's the ideal OLB. Mentally/emotionally, I'm not so sure.

Dontay Moch -- Gary Guyton with more wheels. Depending on what defensive scheme twists BB develops for 2011, he could be a nice multi-tool (SS/OLB/DE), but his value is too situational for a defense we won't have any insight into for 9 months.

My #1 choice, if he declares, is Vinny Curry of Marshall, BB could probably trade down from 33 and get him in the late second or even the third, but he's got the motor, athleticism, and he's already strong in 2/3 of the role.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Did you catch the OU/Texas A&M game Box? Miller was absolutely spectacular. Pressure qb..check...Key part of 2 goal line stounds strong against run...check..Covered Demarco Murray in the flat and tackled him one on one in space inside the 10..check. Cramped up late. But, played about 90 plays. If he puts on 10-15 lbs, not unreasonable. He should be fine as a weak-side lb in our defense.

I think my ideal draft would be JJ Watt at 1a. Trade up for one of Miller, Kerrigan or J. Houston. Too many playoff teams play 3-4 now. Would like to jump ahead of them to get the right guy.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Did you catch the OU/Texas A&M game Box? Miller was absolutely spectacular. Pressure qb..check...Key part of 2 goal line stounds strong against run...check..Covered Demarco Murray in the flat and tackled him one on one in space inside the 10..check. Cramped up late. But, played about 90 plays. If he puts on 10-15 lbs, not unreasonable. He should be fine as a weak-side lb in our defense.

I think my ideal draft would be JJ Watt at 1a. Trade up for one of Miller, Kerrigan or J. Houston. Too many playoff teams play 3-4 now. Would like to jump ahead of them to get the right guy.

One of our friends elsewhere took Miller off his board weeks ago, I declined to join him. I'm not sure I'm ready to commit a first round pick to Miller, but he's demonstrated more of what I want to see in an OLB than most - too bad I missed the OU/TX A&M game.

 

[patsfaninpa]

One of our friends elsewhere took Miller off his board weeks ago, I declined to join him. I'm not sure I'm ready to commit a first round pick to Miller, but he's demonstrated more of what I want to see in an OLB than most - too bad I missed the OU/TX A&M game.

I know Mayo's not big on him. But, the game is more and more being played in space. Not sure there's a protype for anything. It's basically a 7 on 7 passing drill where you have to tackle the guy with the ball. But, if you're on defense. The offense can hold you, you can't look cross at a qb, lay a finger on a receiver after 5yd and lose 25k when tackling someone.

 

[cstjohn17]

This doesn't exactly help the argument to draft a pure pass rusher but just to be fair and balanced...

Sideline Scouting - My Argument Against Von Miller

 

[Ochmed Jones]

This doesn't exactly help the argument to draft a pure pass rusher but just to be fair and balanced...

Sideline Scouting - My Argument Against Von Miller

I have taken Miller off my draft board as well.

Kerrigan is still my #1 OLB candidate.

 

[cstjohn17]

Some perspective on Von Miller, seems a little rosy to me, in the games I saw he wasn't that dominant.

NFP Sunday Blitz | National Football Post

"Texas A&M's Von Miller is the prize of the linebacker class, though he will fit a 3-4 team best because of his exceptional ability to rush the passer. It’s possible a 4-3 team with an up the field scheme will consider him a defensive end. His pass rush skills are too good for him to be doing much of anything else though. Based on talent, Miller should be a top five pick."

Watching the games on Saturday was really a clininc on the impact of a premier pass rusher, Suggs, Harrison, Matthews, etc., they guys make plays that change seasons.

 

[UofApatsfan]

I have taken Miller off my draft board as well.

Kerrigan is still my #1 OLB candidate.

Yup. If there's an OLB/4-3DE worth a #17 pick it's Kerrigan and no way it's Miller. Miller is probably a good 20 pounds too small to be playing OLB in this system. Kerrigan seems to have all the tools, he's 260+ pounds, was good against the run in college and has the smarts to play OLB in this defense. Even he though is still a risk taken at #17 because of how hard it is to determine how well someone will transition to OLB in this system.

 

[Off The Grid]

I don't know what the hell a "Pass Rush Specialist" is, but I DO know that Ryan Kerrigan and Aldon Smith are BOTH worth a top 40 pick.

How does that expression go??

You can NEVER have too much FirePower!!

 

[ZoisKing]

If ever there was a draft where we can pick up some excellent 3-4 OLB talent early, this is that draft.

Kerrigan is of course my favorite because he is a pass rush demon, but also because he plays the run so well. However like Cunningham, he will need to be taught coverage.

Others include:

Romeus (if healthy could be a steal in the third or fourth round)
Sherrod
Clayborn (slimmed down version)
Ayers
and another half dozen others I have forgotten.

Bottom line: Kerrigan at $32 is a chance for BB to restock the OLB position with another guy like Cunningham that can develop into a multidimensional guy and help bring our defense back to full capacity.

I like your thoughts on this one. Having an OLB who can do everything is important-a Vrabel type. Unfortunately, Ayers is probably the only one who fits that bill.

I've flip flopped on my choice for OLB so much as the season has gone by-from Quinn to Ayers to Bowers to Kerrigan and now I'm a fan of Clayborn.

That's another thing I noticed in your post-having Clayborn slim down. If he lowers himself to around 270, then he'd be back to the 2009 version-or close to it-that was a top ten pick. He probably can't cover much at all, but he can play the pass and run very effectively.

 

[patchick]

I don't know what the hell a "Pass Rush Specialist" is, but I DO know that Ryan Kerrigan and Aldon Smith are BOTH worth a top 40 pick.

Now there are two completely opposite prospects!

Smith just hasn't won me over. He's an impressive athlete, fast and fluid in space. But to me, too much of his pass rush seems to consist of using his speed to leave college guards flat-footed. I'm not impressed with the way he uses his hands, and I'm not sold on his upper body strength.

Then you have Kerrigan, with his awesome hands and power and overall relentlessness, but who looks awfully lumbering for a linebacker conversion.

If only we could take half of each.

 

[patchick]

I like your thoughts on this one. Having an OLB who can do everything is important-a Vrabel type. Unfortunately, Ayers is probably the only one who fits that bill.

IMO Jeremy Beal is the Swiss Army Knife in this draft.